Are there any city traders on here?
Discussion
Ambiguity?!
There was no ambiguity in the way that pressure chart fell like stone (or in the explanation I have just given).
What I want to do (when I have time) is to plot a forecast of intra-day pressure charts, say on an hourly tick. If they prove successful, then it will be time to turn to the Dow for some day trading!
There was no ambiguity in the way that pressure chart fell like stone (or in the explanation I have just given).
What I want to do (when I have time) is to plot a forecast of intra-day pressure charts, say on an hourly tick. If they prove successful, then it will be time to turn to the Dow for some day trading!
Mystic said:
Ambiguity?!
There was no ambiguity in the way that pressure chart fell like stone (or in the explanation I have just given).
What I want to do (when I have time) is to plot a forecast of intra-day pressure charts, say on an hourly tick. If they prove successful, then it will be time to turn to the Dow for some day trading!
As I said, 995mbs doesn't seem very low to me, and a movement of 10mbs over a couple of days isn't falling like a stone. We need to get a genuine weather expert on here.There was no ambiguity in the way that pressure chart fell like stone (or in the explanation I have just given).
What I want to do (when I have time) is to plot a forecast of intra-day pressure charts, say on an hourly tick. If they prove successful, then it will be time to turn to the Dow for some day trading!
NoelWatson said:
Mystic said:
Ambiguity?!
There was no ambiguity in the way that pressure chart fell like stone (or in the explanation I have just given).
What I want to do (when I have time) is to plot a forecast of intra-day pressure charts, say on an hourly tick. If they prove successful, then it will be time to turn to the Dow for some day trading!
As I said, 995mbs doesn't seem very low to me, and a movement of 10mbs over a couple of days isn't falling like a stone. We need to get a genuine weather expert on here.There was no ambiguity in the way that pressure chart fell like stone (or in the explanation I have just given).
What I want to do (when I have time) is to plot a forecast of intra-day pressure charts, say on an hourly tick. If they prove successful, then it will be time to turn to the Dow for some day trading!
Isn't it, in fact, completely normal?
Edited by NoelWatson on Thursday 13th May 09:17
NoelWatson said:
Mystic said:
Ambiguity?!
There was no ambiguity in the way that pressure chart fell like stone (or in the explanation I have just given).
What I want to do (when I have time) is to plot a forecast of intra-day pressure charts, say on an hourly tick. If they prove successful, then it will be time to turn to the Dow for some day trading!
As I said, 995mbs doesn't seem very low to me, and a movement of 10mbs over a couple of days isn't falling like a stone. We need to get a genuine weather expert on here.There was no ambiguity in the way that pressure chart fell like stone (or in the explanation I have just given).
What I want to do (when I have time) is to plot a forecast of intra-day pressure charts, say on an hourly tick. If they prove successful, then it will be time to turn to the Dow for some day trading!
You can go on and on about 995 if you like, but as I keep saying, its understanding: (a) what causes the movement of the barometer; and (b) the fact that those causes are known way into the future days/years/decades/centuries ahead that is the key to all of this.
jon- said:
Mystic is either a total genius, or simply read the Icelandic 5 day forecast and went by that...
Yeah, right!The prediction for low pressure that I made on Sunday could have been made 25 years ago if I had the knowledge back then (the data to work out NAP is out there and has been so for a long time).
Perhaps I should scrutinise my database of NAP values (compiled in Jan/Feb 2008) that I have going forward and see a date where all three components have "peak values" at the same time for low pressure and predict the places on Earth the area of low pressure will travel across.
ks. Assign a numeric value to your 'prediction', with error bounds, before hand otherwise you're not predicting, you're engaging in post event hand waving.Sebo said:
Is anything happening with the volcano at the moment?
You can keep track here: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/...It's presently "dynamic"
And from 10am this morning:
The latest information from the Icelandic Met Office is that the Eyjafjallajokull volcano continues to erupt and there have been no significant recent changes in intensity. The ash plume is still reaching 18,000 to 21,500 ft (5.5 to 6.5 km) and can be clearly seen on satellite imagery, with the main plume spreading east-southeastwards toward the Faroe Islands. Issued at 1012 on Thu 13 May 2010.
Edited by Somewhatfoolish on Thursday 13th May 13:41
Icelandic_Volcano_Blog said:
Volcanic Ash Update — 2134 on Thursday 13 May 2010
Volcanic activity from Eyjafjallajokull has recently increased and the ash plume is now reaching heights of 28,000 to 30,0000 ft (8 to 9 km). The ash can be seen clearly on webcam and satellite imagery, with a narrow plume spreading southeastwards towards the far northwest of the UK. Issued at 2132 on Thu 13 May 2010.
Volcanic activity from Eyjafjallajokull has recently increased and the ash plume is now reaching heights of 28,000 to 30,0000 ft (8 to 9 km). The ash can be seen clearly on webcam and satellite imagery, with a narrow plume spreading southeastwards towards the far northwest of the UK. Issued at 2132 on Thu 13 May 2010.
Scawie said:
Icelandic_Volcano_Blog said:
Volcanic Ash Update — 2134 on Thursday 13 May 2010
Volcanic activity from Eyjafjallajokull has recently increased and the ash plume is now reaching heights of 28,000 to 30,0000 ft (8 to 9 km). The ash can be seen clearly on webcam and satellite imagery, with a narrow plume spreading southeastwards towards the far northwest of the UK. Issued at 2132 on Thu 13 May 2010.
Volcanic activity from Eyjafjallajokull has recently increased and the ash plume is now reaching heights of 28,000 to 30,0000 ft (8 to 9 km). The ash can be seen clearly on webcam and satellite imagery, with a narrow plume spreading southeastwards towards the far northwest of the UK. Issued at 2132 on Thu 13 May 2010.
There were no eruptions as predicted. I wasted money on volcano insurance!
Just a few points:
- Markus, nice to hear from you. Do you see what I have to put up with!
- Anthony: YHM
- NW, Jon + others: yes, there was no eruption of the magnitude I had thought. I jumped the gun in thinking that the almost peak conditions for low pressure on 13 May 2010 would bring about an eruption stronger than 14 April 2010 in Iceland. As I said before the event, the peak conditions for the lowest pressure were "off" by 10% - but no excuse for making such a prediction, based upon zero experience of what magnitude of low pressure will bring about an eruption greater than the one on 14 April 2010.
Still, I am more than happy with the fall in air pressure in Iceland. Yes, I did not predict it 25 years ago, but the data that I used for the prediction was available 25 years ago (even 125 years ago); that is, no current/recent data was used at all. The key to the prediction of the falling pressure was the objective/mechanical method (for predicting years in advance the bar. pressure); once one knows the simple method, it doesn't take an Einstein to work it out.
NB: At this stage, because I have not worked through many examples, I cannot assign a value to the bar. pressure for given "cause" (I am only able to presently say "there will be a fall"), however, that should come with experience of working through historic examples and "tracking" hourly/daily bar. charts for a given location (say London). I have just sourced 5 minute tick bar. pressure charts for London for the last 10 years, so that will help, if I have time to spend on this.
Notice the method enabled me to predict the exact time of when the low pressure will arrive. Look at the chart below for Iceland and you will see it arriving by around 1.00am as predicted (point B).
The rate of fall of the bar. pressure from about noon 11 May (point A) and Point B was about 0.74 mb per hour.
Contrast that with the recent major storms in the UK, which occurred in early March 2008. This is the bar. chart for March 2008:
The rate of fall from point A to B was 0.685 mb/hr (as compared to 0.74 mb/hr in Iceland 11-13 May 2010)
The point here is that although we did not get an eruption on 13 May 2010 in Iceland, we did get a rapid change/fall in pressure - comparable to a rate of fall experienced in the UK in March 2008 when one witnessed very extreme weather.
Although in the early stages of my interpretation of the effects of a falling bar. pressure and I will get it wrong, the main issue is that the pressure did fall very fast and at the exact times predicted.
Buoyed by this result, more bar. pressure predictions will follow (with exact timings of when the lows should occur), using data that was available decades ago! I will go forward in time greater than the forward time span the Met. Offices around the world use (so can't be accused of using their predictions).
......
PS: Notice how "slow" the pressure in Iceland is recovering from the low in point B. It has taken 4 days to recover the pressure lost in the 24 hrs just before the low. What does that remind you of?
- Markus, nice to hear from you. Do you see what I have to put up with!
- Anthony: YHM
- NW, Jon + others: yes, there was no eruption of the magnitude I had thought. I jumped the gun in thinking that the almost peak conditions for low pressure on 13 May 2010 would bring about an eruption stronger than 14 April 2010 in Iceland. As I said before the event, the peak conditions for the lowest pressure were "off" by 10% - but no excuse for making such a prediction, based upon zero experience of what magnitude of low pressure will bring about an eruption greater than the one on 14 April 2010.
Still, I am more than happy with the fall in air pressure in Iceland. Yes, I did not predict it 25 years ago, but the data that I used for the prediction was available 25 years ago (even 125 years ago); that is, no current/recent data was used at all. The key to the prediction of the falling pressure was the objective/mechanical method (for predicting years in advance the bar. pressure); once one knows the simple method, it doesn't take an Einstein to work it out.
NB: At this stage, because I have not worked through many examples, I cannot assign a value to the bar. pressure for given "cause" (I am only able to presently say "there will be a fall"), however, that should come with experience of working through historic examples and "tracking" hourly/daily bar. charts for a given location (say London). I have just sourced 5 minute tick bar. pressure charts for London for the last 10 years, so that will help, if I have time to spend on this.
Notice the method enabled me to predict the exact time of when the low pressure will arrive. Look at the chart below for Iceland and you will see it arriving by around 1.00am as predicted (point B).
The rate of fall of the bar. pressure from about noon 11 May (point A) and Point B was about 0.74 mb per hour.
Contrast that with the recent major storms in the UK, which occurred in early March 2008. This is the bar. chart for March 2008:
The rate of fall from point A to B was 0.685 mb/hr (as compared to 0.74 mb/hr in Iceland 11-13 May 2010)
The point here is that although we did not get an eruption on 13 May 2010 in Iceland, we did get a rapid change/fall in pressure - comparable to a rate of fall experienced in the UK in March 2008 when one witnessed very extreme weather.
Although in the early stages of my interpretation of the effects of a falling bar. pressure and I will get it wrong, the main issue is that the pressure did fall very fast and at the exact times predicted.
Buoyed by this result, more bar. pressure predictions will follow (with exact timings of when the lows should occur), using data that was available decades ago! I will go forward in time greater than the forward time span the Met. Offices around the world use (so can't be accused of using their predictions).
......
PS: Notice how "slow" the pressure in Iceland is recovering from the low in point B. It has taken 4 days to recover the pressure lost in the 24 hrs just before the low. What does that remind you of?
Pretty vid of the erupting volcano.
Via @zerohedge:
HD video of the eyjafjallajokull volcanic eruptions http://bit.ly/czQnOu
Via @zerohedge:
HD video of the eyjafjallajokull volcanic eruptions http://bit.ly/czQnOu
And another, extra pretty one: http://vimeo.com/11673745
This still has little to do with city trading though Mystic
This still has little to do with city trading though Mystic
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