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Discussion
Just back from Bologna, the Murcielago replacement is just stunning! 0-60mph in under 3 secs! Very pretty car imo.
Charlie - yes, we shall orgnaise something for a meet up! I will be in touch.
Has anyone seen the Met Office's forecast out today for 12 November 2010:
... now where did I see that chart before? Oh yes, back in the late 1800's and about 8 times since! Shall we let the Met Office know?
Charlie - yes, we shall orgnaise something for a meet up! I will be in touch.
Has anyone seen the Met Office's forecast out today for 12 November 2010:
... now where did I see that chart before? Oh yes, back in the late 1800's and about 8 times since! Shall we let the Met Office know?
Mystic said:
Just back from Bologna, the Murcielago replacement is just stunning! 0-60mph in under 3 secs! Very pretty car imo.
Charlie - yes, we shall orgnaise something for a meet up! I will be in touch.
Has anyone seen the Met Office's forecast out today for 12 November 2010:
... now where did I see that chart before? Oh yes, back in the late 1800's and about 8 times since! Shall we let the Met Office know?
Remind me, did you predit this?Charlie - yes, we shall orgnaise something for a meet up! I will be in touch.
Has anyone seen the Met Office's forecast out today for 12 November 2010:
... now where did I see that chart before? Oh yes, back in the late 1800's and about 8 times since! Shall we let the Met Office know?
ant1973 said:
You just beat me to posting something very similar. Well done!
Thanks Ant, but lets, as I say, see if it comes good!Its been a nightmare trying to decifer things and work out the DNA for an individual day. In the end, I threw all the books away and just thought hard, reflected and allowed ideas to ferment for about for 4 months! I "lost" the summer, but hopefully it would be worth it.
Sometimes, if you need to take things to the next level, you just need to go alone and just forget what anyone else has done or said. Believe hard that you can do it and be hard on yourself that you must not give up and above all that you will get there, its just a matter of time. For me the key is to always ask the right questions when things are not clear - write the questions down and by some miracle, the next day or next week, the answer comes!
In relation to making forecasts, part of you is so sure you are right and other another part of you is so sceptical and just wants the validation through accurate (forward) forecasts. When the forecast comes good, part of you is calm and says "I told you so, whats the big deal; you've seen the cycle work in the past for the last 100+ years; WTF did you expect?" and the other part is jumping up and down with excitement, as if it is totally unexpected - crazy!
If the forecast comes good, I shall post more weather predictions as "one swallow does not make a summer"
NoelWatson said:
Will that give us similar conditions to the flood of 1953?
... as to the effect of the low pressure upon the weather. I can't say, as I don't have the newspaper reports for the days this (ie: 12 Nov 2010 chart) occured before.To be fair, if you give an experienced meteorologist the pressure chart, they should, hopefully, be able to say the effect
The difficult part is identifying what the pressure will be way ahead in time; as that requires an understanding of how nature works. My 12 Novemeber 2010 forecast could have been made with data available circa 100 years ago (in fact much earlier, if good data was to hand).
Re the floods of 1953 (30 Jan-1 Feb), I shall try and look at the DNA for that period of time and see when it will repeat if in the near future. It would be interesting to know...
jon- said:
You got to play with the Murcielago replacement?
Sadly no. It's in a secret part of the factory and not allowed out! We all got a chance to have a good look round and sit inside. For me, in looks is more of a "female"; the Murci was a "bloke"! Its got a much better looking backside than the Murci (lovely view for those in Ferraris!!!)jon- said:
That's more impressive than you're Mystic Meg predictions.
... couldn't agree more! But hey, one of those predictions trading the Dow for a few hours one day next year could pay for that baby! 
Mystic said:
ant1973 said:
You just beat me to posting something very similar. Well done!
Thanks Ant, but lets, as I say, see if it comes good!Its been a nightmare trying to decifer things and work out the DNA for an individual day. In the end, I threw all the books away and just thought hard, reflected and allowed ideas to ferment for about for 4 months! I "lost" the summer, but hopefully it would be worth it.
Sometimes, if you need to take things to the next level, you just need to go alone and just forget what anyone else has done or said. Believe hard that you can do it and be hard on yourself that you must not give up and above all that you will get there, its just a matter of time. For me the key is to always ask the right questions when things are not clear - write the questions down and by some miracle, the next day or next week, the answer comes!
In relation to making forecasts, part of you is so sure you are right and other another part of you is so sceptical and just wants the validation through accurate (forward) forecasts. When the forecast comes good, part of you is calm and says "I told you so, whats the big deal; you've seen the cycle work in the past for the last 100+ years; WTF did you expect?" and the other part is jumping up and down with excitement, as if it is totally unexpected - crazy!
If the forecast comes good, I shall post more weather predictions as "one swallow does not make a summer"
- burp*
Somewhatfoolish said:
*burp*
p.s. mystic many of the markets I've been trading recently are starting to get controlled by one evil algorithm... I've also worked out a way of manipulating it using the order book. I can make basically any pretty cycle you like during a quiet period...
... glad to hear you are having fun. Can you post up some of your pretty cycles? p.s. mystic many of the markets I've been trading recently are starting to get controlled by one evil algorithm... I've also worked out a way of manipulating it using the order book. I can make basically any pretty cycle you like during a quiet period...
Somewhatfoolish said:
... how did you predict this in advance?
... by knowing the cycles in nature that repeat and repeat, time after time... will be doing some more posts of other extreme weather events
ant1973 said:
In fairness, it is looking pretty good. The problem is that the margins for error are small.
Todays forecast from the Met Office for 00hrs 12 November 2010 is:
If that chart holds as actual, stepping back, the implications of this forecast coming good, I feel, will be immense. Proving the DNA system works, needs time to reflect. May post more on this point if forecast comes good.
ant1973 said:
I have been off and on trying to apply the DNA to the markets but data pre 1900 is hard to come by. Have some time off coming up soon so that should give me time to think. I've been trying to work out a methodology for adjusting stock prices a la the weather but it is slow going because my data sample is too small.
... yes, taking time off is key. Try to maintain a higher level of being during the process.... I can see at some point next year, I will turn to the Dow. Accurate past prices will be key as you say.
Mystic said:
ant1973 said:
In fairness, it is looking pretty good. The problem is that the margins for error are small.
Todays forecast from the Met Office for 00hrs 12 November 2010 is:If that chart holds as actual, stepping back, the implications of this forecast coming good, I feel, will be immense. Proving the DNA system works, needs time to reflect. May post more on this point if forecast comes good.
ant1973 said:
I have been off and on trying to apply the DNA to the markets but data pre 1900 is hard to come by. Have some time off coming up soon so that should give me time to think. I've been trying to work out a methodology for adjusting stock prices a la the weather but it is slow going because my data sample is too small.
... yes, taking time off is key. Try to maintain a higher level of being during the process.... I can see at some point next year, I will turn to the Dow. Accurate past prices will be key as you say.
Mystic said:
Just to put this into context, the barometer in London has not fallen once to below 975mb in the last 12 months to date, so if we have pressure of around 975mb anywhere in the UK on the 12/11/10, it would be a fairly rare event.
Be interesting to see how the actual compares with the forecast....
Just trying to work out exactly what you are saying here. Are we talking about London or the UK as a whole for 975mb? And when you say it is a rare event, did it fall below that last year?Be interesting to see how the actual compares with the forecast....
According to this, we have a high chance of storms at this time of year
http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/singularities....
I'm just trying to work out the chances of a random guess being right.
NoelWatson said:
Just trying to work out exactly what you are saying here. Are we talking about London or the UK as a whole for 975mb? And when you say it is a rare event, did it fall below that last year?
This is chart for pressure for London from 1 January 2009 to date:
as you can see the pressure did not drop to current levels since about January 2009, so that is almost two years.
My forecast was for the centre of the low to be 975mb or below and it is 957mb at the low per the Met Office forecast for tomorrow.
What do you reckon the chances are for getting the location of centre of the low, as well, within the geographical range I specified back on 12 October 2010?
NoelWatson said:
Just trying to work out exactly what you are saying here. Are we talking about London or the UK as a whole for 975mb? And when you say it is a rare event, did it fall below that last year?
According to this, we have a high chance of storms at this time of year
http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/singularities....
I'm just trying to work out the chances of a random guess being right.
The only place I can find for historic data is here: http://resource.npl.co.uk/pressure/pressure.htmlAccording to this, we have a high chance of storms at this time of year
http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/singularities....
I'm just trying to work out the chances of a random guess being right.
The full data available is here, but its not a very good chart. Its too small.
http://resource.npl.co.uk/cgi-bin/baromhist.pl?act...
Mystic said:
NoelWatson said:
Just trying to work out exactly what you are saying here. Are we talking about London or the UK as a whole for 975mb? And when you say it is a rare event, did it fall below that last year?
This is chart for pressure for London from 1 January 2009 to date:as you can see the pressure did not drop to current levels since about January 2009, so that is almost two years.
My forecast was for the centre of the low to be 975mb or below and it is 957mb at the low per the Met Office forecast for tomorrow.
What do you reckon the chances are for getting the location of centre of the low, as well, within the geographical range I specified back on 12 October 2010?
At the time of the forecast on 12 October 2010, the pressure in London had not dropped to below 970mb since early 2009. So the fact that it drops below 970mb is a rare event. As shown by the chart I posted up for 1/1/2009 to date.
Yes, it did drop to below 970mb earlier this week, as a result of the weather system around the UK this week. I picked a day this week where the low was closest to mainland Britain. The forecast was for 12 November 2010 (the charts are for 00 hrs for a particular day).
Yes, it did drop to below 970mb earlier this week, as a result of the weather system around the UK this week. I picked a day this week where the low was closest to mainland Britain. The forecast was for 12 November 2010 (the charts are for 00 hrs for a particular day).
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