Are there any city traders on here?
Discussion
Mystic said:
At the time of the forecast on 12 October 2010, the pressure in London had not dropped to below 970mb since early 2009. So the fact that it drops below 970mb is a rare event. As shown by the chart I posted up for 1/1/2009 to date.
Yes, it did drop to below 970mb earlier this week, as a result of the weather system around the UK this week. I picked a day this week where the low was closest to mainland Britain. The forecast was for 12 November 2010 (the charts are for 00 hrs for a particular day).
I think you missed the London low by a couple of days.Yes, it did drop to below 970mb earlier this week, as a result of the weather system around the UK this week. I picked a day this week where the low was closest to mainland Britain. The forecast was for 12 November 2010 (the charts are for 00 hrs for a particular day).
Just for completeness:
The forecast as posted on 12/10/10 has been fulfilled. Not even one day out.
Mystic on 12/10/10 said:
For those of you that have been following the thread, the main thrust is that each day, in each and every year, has its own unique DNA value. When the DNA for any two days is very similar, the weather is also very similar.
NB: in a 300 years period to date (around 110,000 days), I have not found an exact DNA match in any two days; and there may only be a small handful of days with close matches. This is one of the reasons why it has been difficult for forecasters to see "patterns" in the weather, as the matches are few and far between.
On and off over the last four months, I have spent some time trying to perfect the calculation of the DNA values for each day in the years 1700 to 2050; it has been quite a testing task and I am by no means there in arriving at the “definitive DNA value for a day” (which is the key). I obviously have work still to do; part of the further work involves making predictions about the weather into the future and comparing the actual with the forecast.
With this in mind, my basic calculations, undertaken a few weeks back, show that the DNA for Friday 12 November 2010, a month from today, will be very similar to the DNA of days in the past (one was around 100 years ago) which saw: quite low pressures (at around 975mb or below) in the UK, with isobars closely packed (suggesting high winds) and the centre of the low pressure being in a area from just off the north east coast of Scotland to down to Norfolk.
Just to put this into context, the barometer in London has not fallen once to below 975mb in the last 12 months to date, so if we have pressure of around 975mb anywhere in the UK on the 12/11/10, it would be a fairly rare event.
Be interesting to see how the actual compares with the forecast....
Met Office chart for today 00hrs 12/11/10 shows a Low Presure of 957mb and the centre of that low is within the area specified in the forecast. The isobars are closely packed as also stated in the forecast. We also have had the high winds as stated in the forecast.NB: in a 300 years period to date (around 110,000 days), I have not found an exact DNA match in any two days; and there may only be a small handful of days with close matches. This is one of the reasons why it has been difficult for forecasters to see "patterns" in the weather, as the matches are few and far between.
On and off over the last four months, I have spent some time trying to perfect the calculation of the DNA values for each day in the years 1700 to 2050; it has been quite a testing task and I am by no means there in arriving at the “definitive DNA value for a day” (which is the key). I obviously have work still to do; part of the further work involves making predictions about the weather into the future and comparing the actual with the forecast.
With this in mind, my basic calculations, undertaken a few weeks back, show that the DNA for Friday 12 November 2010, a month from today, will be very similar to the DNA of days in the past (one was around 100 years ago) which saw: quite low pressures (at around 975mb or below) in the UK, with isobars closely packed (suggesting high winds) and the centre of the low pressure being in a area from just off the north east coast of Scotland to down to Norfolk.
Just to put this into context, the barometer in London has not fallen once to below 975mb in the last 12 months to date, so if we have pressure of around 975mb anywhere in the UK on the 12/11/10, it would be a fairly rare event.
Be interesting to see how the actual compares with the forecast....
The forecast as posted on 12/10/10 has been fulfilled. Not even one day out.
Mystic said:
Just for completeness:
The forecast as posted on 12/10/10 has been fulfilled. Not even one day out.
But there was still confusion about whether the 975mb was for London, or UK as a whole, and if the latter, if it is at all rare. Furthermore, pressure doesn't appear to be anywhere near 975mb in London - it has been rising for last two days.Mystic on 12/10/10 said:
For those of you that have been following the thread, the main thrust is that each day, in each and every year, has its own unique DNA value. When the DNA for any two days is very similar, the weather is also very similar.
NB: in a 300 years period to date (around 110,000 days), I have not found an exact DNA match in any two days; and there may only be a small handful of days with close matches. This is one of the reasons why it has been difficult for forecasters to see "patterns" in the weather, as the matches are few and far between.
On and off over the last four months, I have spent some time trying to perfect the calculation of the DNA values for each day in the years 1700 to 2050; it has been quite a testing task and I am by no means there in arriving at the “definitive DNA value for a day” (which is the key). I obviously have work still to do; part of the further work involves making predictions about the weather into the future and comparing the actual with the forecast.
With this in mind, my basic calculations, undertaken a few weeks back, show that the DNA for Friday 12 November 2010, a month from today, will be very similar to the DNA of days in the past (one was around 100 years ago) which saw: quite low pressures (at around 975mb or below) in the UK, with isobars closely packed (suggesting high winds) and the centre of the low pressure being in a area from just off the north east coast of Scotland to down to Norfolk.
Just to put this into context, the barometer in London has not fallen once to below 975mb in the last 12 months to date, so if we have pressure of around 975mb anywhere in the UK on the 12/11/10, it would be a fairly rare event.
Be interesting to see how the actual compares with the forecast....
Met Office chart for today 00hrs 12/11/10 shows a Low Presure of 957mb and the centre of that low is within the area specified in the forecast. The isobars are closely packed as also stated in the forecast. We also have had the high winds as stated in the forecast.NB: in a 300 years period to date (around 110,000 days), I have not found an exact DNA match in any two days; and there may only be a small handful of days with close matches. This is one of the reasons why it has been difficult for forecasters to see "patterns" in the weather, as the matches are few and far between.
On and off over the last four months, I have spent some time trying to perfect the calculation of the DNA values for each day in the years 1700 to 2050; it has been quite a testing task and I am by no means there in arriving at the “definitive DNA value for a day” (which is the key). I obviously have work still to do; part of the further work involves making predictions about the weather into the future and comparing the actual with the forecast.
With this in mind, my basic calculations, undertaken a few weeks back, show that the DNA for Friday 12 November 2010, a month from today, will be very similar to the DNA of days in the past (one was around 100 years ago) which saw: quite low pressures (at around 975mb or below) in the UK, with isobars closely packed (suggesting high winds) and the centre of the low pressure being in a area from just off the north east coast of Scotland to down to Norfolk.
Just to put this into context, the barometer in London has not fallen once to below 975mb in the last 12 months to date, so if we have pressure of around 975mb anywhere in the UK on the 12/11/10, it would be a fairly rare event.
Be interesting to see how the actual compares with the forecast....
The forecast as posted on 12/10/10 has been fulfilled. Not even one day out.
NoelWatson said:
But there was still confusion about whether the 975mb was for London, or UK as a whole, and if the latter, if it is at all rare. Furthermore, pressure doesn't appear to be anywhere near 975mb in London - it has been rising for last two days.
I don't see where your confusion is coming from. The predition seems spot on to me.Any more predictions, Mystic?
Don
--
don4l said:
NoelWatson said:
But there was still confusion about whether the 975mb was for London, or UK as a whole, and if the latter, if it is at all rare. Furthermore, pressure doesn't appear to be anywhere near 975mb in London - it has been rising for last two days.
I don't see where your confusion is coming from. The predition seems spot on to me.Any more predictions, Mystic?
Don
--
NoelWatson said:
don4l said:
NoelWatson said:
But there was still confusion about whether the 975mb was for London, or UK as a whole, and if the latter, if it is at all rare. Furthermore, pressure doesn't appear to be anywhere near 975mb in London - it has been rising for last two days.
I don't see where your confusion is coming from. The predition seems spot on to me.Any more predictions, Mystic?
Don
--
ant1973 said:
NoelWatson said:
don4l said:
NoelWatson said:
But there was still confusion about whether the 975mb was for London, or UK as a whole, and if the latter, if it is at all rare. Furthermore, pressure doesn't appear to be anywhere near 975mb in London - it has been rising for last two days.
I don't see where your confusion is coming from. The predition seems spot on to me.Any more predictions, Mystic?
Don
--
NoelWatson said:
don4l said:
NoelWatson said:
But there was still confusion about whether the 975mb was for London, or UK as a whole, and if the latter, if it is at all rare. Furthermore, pressure doesn't appear to be anywhere near 975mb in London - it has been rising for last two days.
I don't see where your confusion is coming from. The predition seems spot on to me.Any more predictions, Mystic?
Don
--
The lowest pressure would only be recorded at the centre of the pressure system. I read the London comment as no more than a reference for the fact that lows like this are uncommon.
Don
--
don4l said:
NoelWatson said:
don4l said:
NoelWatson said:
But there was still confusion about whether the 975mb was for London, or UK as a whole, and if the latter, if it is at all rare. Furthermore, pressure doesn't appear to be anywhere near 975mb in London - it has been rising for last two days.
I don't see where your confusion is coming from. The predition seems spot on to me.Any more predictions, Mystic?
Don
--
The lowest pressure would only be recorded at the centre of the pressure system. I read the London comment as no more than a reference for the fact that lows like this are uncommon.
Don
--
Mystic are the Irish gonna formally announce application to and/or deal with the EFSF this weekend or not?
Where will 3 month euribor fix on monday?
edit: Perhaps a tiny bit more relevantly... markets are currently being, or appear to be being, far more cyclical in terms of what I'm going to call "time of day"... does that make sense to you and how does it fit in with your theory?
Where will 3 month euribor fix on monday?
edit: Perhaps a tiny bit more relevantly... markets are currently being, or appear to be being, far more cyclical in terms of what I'm going to call "time of day"... does that make sense to you and how does it fit in with your theory?
Edited by Somewhatfoolish on Friday 12th November 19:26
They are very. very uncommon (centered) in London and relatively rare as a whole of this depth, but usually you will see the centre track in much the same way as this one has done around Northern Scotland - I've spent too many years looking at pressure charts as a longtime sailor/windsurfer and PPL holder - so weather is a bit of a past time and in my opinion, Mystic's prediciton back in October has born out very accurately - I guess the question is can you do it more often Nick - I'd love to know which weekends to book my pink tickets for windsurfing with the wife and kids well in advance!-)
Edited by Charlie360 on Friday 12th November 19:22
Mystic said:
... glad to hear you are having fun. Can you post up some of your pretty cycles? 
http://www.nanex.net/20100506/FlashCrashAnalysis_P...http://www.nanex.net/FlashCrash/CCircleDay.html
Edited by Scawie on Friday 12th November 21:28
CHRISTMAS DAY 25 DECEMBER 2010 - UK WEATHER FORECAST BY MYSTIC MADE ON 12/11/10
OVERVIEW
This day will be dominated by high pressure; there will be no snow and it will be a mild day with daytime temperatures varying from 6c to 10c
PRESSURE CHART
Overall for December 2010 in London
The average pressure for London during December 2010 will be around the 1028mb level. With the pressure for 25 December 2010 being at or close to the peak for the month at 1043mb.
UK pressure chart at 00:00 hrs 25 December 2010
The chart will be very simple. High pressure almost everywhere at the level of 1040mb, with only Northern Scotland (from about Edinburgh) reaching a wee bit lower pressure at 1035mb.
Between the UK and Iceland the isobars will be closely packed with pressures falling to around 1000mb at the low to the south west of Iceland.
UK pressure chart at 12:00 hrs 25 December 2010
The pressure will be highest in the south and south east of England with levels reaching about 1046mb; with London at a touch below that at about 1043mb.
From about Manchester up to the north of Scotland the isobars will become more closely packed, the further north they go; as the low from south west of Iceland moves towards the UK. The actual low is now over Iceland being around 995mb; the pressure levels will fall from around1040mb in Manchester to around 1020mb in the north east tip of Scotland.
UK pressure chart at 00:00 hrs 26 December 2010
The low from Iceland would have reached the west coast of Norway at about 62 degrees north and will stand at around 1000mb
The isobars across the UK will be relatively closely packed, with pressure ranging from about 1010mb in the north of Scotland to about 1040mb in the south western tip of Cornwall. London will have a pressure of around 1035mb
WIND
The winds will be coming from the south west. Reaching gale force in the northern parts of Scotland.
RAIN
England and Wales will be dry during the day.
There will be rain in Scotland from time to time, particularly in the north east side from around Edinburgh up to Aberdeen. Light rain may head south and reach about the east of Birmingham area during the evening/night.
SNOW
No snow at normal ground levels
TEMPERATURES
Day time: 6c-10c. The majority of the UK being around 6c-8c with only the extreme south west of England and the north west of Scotland perhaps reaching the highest temperatures of around 10c
Night time: 3c-6c. The majority of the UK being around 5c and the extreme south west of England hitting the highest temperatures of around 6c. So no frost.
SUN
It will peek through the clouds especially in the south east corner of England.
... as always, lets see what happens!
OVERVIEW
This day will be dominated by high pressure; there will be no snow and it will be a mild day with daytime temperatures varying from 6c to 10c
PRESSURE CHART
Overall for December 2010 in London
The average pressure for London during December 2010 will be around the 1028mb level. With the pressure for 25 December 2010 being at or close to the peak for the month at 1043mb.
UK pressure chart at 00:00 hrs 25 December 2010
The chart will be very simple. High pressure almost everywhere at the level of 1040mb, with only Northern Scotland (from about Edinburgh) reaching a wee bit lower pressure at 1035mb.
Between the UK and Iceland the isobars will be closely packed with pressures falling to around 1000mb at the low to the south west of Iceland.
UK pressure chart at 12:00 hrs 25 December 2010
The pressure will be highest in the south and south east of England with levels reaching about 1046mb; with London at a touch below that at about 1043mb.
From about Manchester up to the north of Scotland the isobars will become more closely packed, the further north they go; as the low from south west of Iceland moves towards the UK. The actual low is now over Iceland being around 995mb; the pressure levels will fall from around1040mb in Manchester to around 1020mb in the north east tip of Scotland.
UK pressure chart at 00:00 hrs 26 December 2010
The low from Iceland would have reached the west coast of Norway at about 62 degrees north and will stand at around 1000mb
The isobars across the UK will be relatively closely packed, with pressure ranging from about 1010mb in the north of Scotland to about 1040mb in the south western tip of Cornwall. London will have a pressure of around 1035mb
WIND
The winds will be coming from the south west. Reaching gale force in the northern parts of Scotland.
RAIN
England and Wales will be dry during the day.
There will be rain in Scotland from time to time, particularly in the north east side from around Edinburgh up to Aberdeen. Light rain may head south and reach about the east of Birmingham area during the evening/night.
SNOW
No snow at normal ground levels
TEMPERATURES
Day time: 6c-10c. The majority of the UK being around 6c-8c with only the extreme south west of England and the north west of Scotland perhaps reaching the highest temperatures of around 10c
Night time: 3c-6c. The majority of the UK being around 5c and the extreme south west of England hitting the highest temperatures of around 6c. So no frost.
SUN
It will peek through the clouds especially in the south east corner of England.
... as always, lets see what happens!
Mystic do you want me to point out how pathetically vauge that is or can you make it more precise without my help?
Edit: Actually, my apologies, it's not pathetically vague. It's *relatively* specific. But it could do with a lot of improvement to making it a specific prediction.
Edit2: Just for my own amusement I'm going to put on a couple of hundred quid on xmas snow forecasts based on your prediction, and if they come in I'll give 50% to a charity of your choice. Can you spell them out please?
(No snow at ground levels not specific enough... unless you mean there is no snow anywhere in British Isles at all)
Edit3: Removed unnecssary rudeness. I'm glad we're getting somewhere close to a testable prediction...
Edit: Actually, my apologies, it's not pathetically vague. It's *relatively* specific. But it could do with a lot of improvement to making it a specific prediction.
Edit2: Just for my own amusement I'm going to put on a couple of hundred quid on xmas snow forecasts based on your prediction, and if they come in I'll give 50% to a charity of your choice. Can you spell them out please?
(No snow at ground levels not specific enough... unless you mean there is no snow anywhere in British Isles at all)
Edit3: Removed unnecssary rudeness. I'm glad we're getting somewhere close to a testable prediction...
Edited by Somewhatfoolish on Friday 12th November 22:06
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