Are there any city traders on here?
Discussion
DonkeyApple said:
I would hazard that there are only a small handful of people in the UK who can design and run 'systems' that can make good returns without taking on comedy risk for retail traders. And interestingly they are nearly all under contract to one person 
So, what makes a bad system (apart from the obvious - losing money)?RemainAllHoof said:
So, what makes a bad system (apart from the obvious - losing money)?
Mostly it's the problem of risk. Most people design a system through back testing which can never work. Then they try to fully automate but a system needs to be dynamic to evolve as the Market ebbs and flows through different characteristics. Ultimately this requires a human brain to achieve this. Finally, no pure system can create pure data as it is unable to do what a human can and that is cut out spurious live data and stop it entering the system. The real problem with the crap that is sold to retail punters is that all they do is back test to find something that produces a nice chart then flog it out.
The big killer is that these systems will fail to take into account the possible drawdowns before a positive result is reached. During which time most accounts on margin will have been wiped out.
RemainAllHoof said:
DonkeyApple said:
Indeed. And because it is not regulated you can't tell punters that they'll make hundreds of percent in returns.
You could even show them a photo of a cheque made out to you from a spread betting firm confirming your winnings. Obviously you wouldn't show the corresponding losses on your other account you used to run the opposing positions.
The real bonus is once you've got as much money as you can directly from your user base you sell it on to someone offering fine wine invesents, land parcelling or penny shares so they can milk them more with a new and exciting way to make millions.
Sounds conVinceing. You could even show them a photo of a cheque made out to you from a spread betting firm confirming your winnings. Obviously you wouldn't show the corresponding losses on your other account you used to run the opposing positions.
The real bonus is once you've got as much money as you can directly from your user base you sell it on to someone offering fine wine invesents, land parcelling or penny shares so they can milk them more with a new and exciting way to make millions.
Is this stuff not regulated at all? I see those disclaimers on various websites but are they free from lawsuits? I've toyed with the idea of running one of these and then admitting at the end it was a "scam" and giving all profits to charity.
(could cost a fair bit to set up but with possible good returns...obviously this is unlikely to work and you will get punched by a few big men for fleecing them but its all fun and games 
)Start by buying 1,000,000 email addresses of people who are interested in learning to share trade.
Send a wordy email to 500,000 of them proclaiming that you have a system that will predict a rise or fall in public companies share price. Back this up by saying that you predict that COCA COLA shares will rise over the next calender month. and encourage them to place a spread bet on them (obviously most wont etc...)
Send the same email to the other 500,000 but telling them that the share price of the same company will fall over the next calender month. once again encourage them to place a spread bet.
At the end of that first calender month lets assume COCA COLA shares went down (it will work the other way round too)
Discard the 500,000 that you were "wrong" about and then split the remaining 500,000 that you told the price will go down in half again.
250,000 will get an email saying something like "see aren't we great, we told you we could predict share rises and falls. follow it up with another prophecy on a different company. Telling these people that it will go up.
The other 250,000 get the same email but saying it will go down.
Rinse and repeat the above until you are left with 62,500 people to mail.
By now, the odd idiot may actually be following your suggestion of actually betting on these companies.
Here is the clever part...
Split them in half again, telling them both that you will teach them how to predict these rises and falls in a seminar... for the small fee of £500 (or whatever price you decide. Make sure you tell them that it wont actually cost them anything because you will tell them this months magic stock to trade. then tell 1 half of them a particular company will rise. Give the other half the same email but that same company will fall.
The next email to send will provide them with details of these seminars and where to send their money.
Get yourself a big list of these companies who run free seminars where they try to sell you the software and knowledge afterwards for about £5k and sign them up to go on these courses. (after they pay you of course)
Obviously many people wont bother, but there should be a number of people who believed you and "traded" to earn there money to pay for the course, so it costs them nothing to try it.
If they all fell for it you earn £15,625,000 (no chance they will all fall for it)
If half fall for it, you earn £7,812,500
if 10% fall for it, you earn £1,562,500
etc....
No one gets hurt in all this because you also made them the money that they used to pay for the free seminar
all you were doing is collecting your money back off them. 
- Disclaimer** This is only intended for a bit of fun, I don't for a second think it would work! If you think it will and try it, I want money! or if you get caught, I want nothing to do with it
That's a sutem that used to be used by regulated advisory firms until the FSA asked them to stop.
give the same trade to all your clients but half long half short.
It is still being done but now they use two related stocks. Ie they split an in-sector pairs trade across the client base.
Still, it's a lot of hard work when you can just set up a shell company, stick a few 'people' on the board, bung a bit of cash via Switzerland to an official in a third world country and then announce you are a mining company with a concession in Timbuctoo.
Next you ramp up the stock a bit while issuing huge lines to offshore investment firms then you get the usual PR entities to ramp it up big style and flog all your offshore holdings into the retail demand flow making an absolute fortune.
give the same trade to all your clients but half long half short.
It is still being done but now they use two related stocks. Ie they split an in-sector pairs trade across the client base.
Still, it's a lot of hard work when you can just set up a shell company, stick a few 'people' on the board, bung a bit of cash via Switzerland to an official in a third world country and then announce you are a mining company with a concession in Timbuctoo.
Next you ramp up the stock a bit while issuing huge lines to offshore investment firms then you get the usual PR entities to ramp it up big style and flog all your offshore holdings into the retail demand flow making an absolute fortune.
DonkeyApple said:
That's a sutem that used to be used by regulated advisory firms until the FSA asked them to stop.
give the same trade to all your clients but half long half short.
It is still being done but now they use two related stocks. Ie they split an in-sector pairs trade across the client base.
Still, it's a lot of hard work when you can just set up a shell company, stick a few 'people' on the board, bung a bit of cash via Switzerland to an official in a third world country and then announce you are a mining company with a concession in Timbuctoo.
Next you ramp up the stock a bit while issuing huge lines to offshore investment firms then you get the usual PR entities to ramp it up big style and flog all your offshore holdings into the retail demand flow making an absolute fortune.
ahh, crap... I'm too late to the party then give the same trade to all your clients but half long half short.
It is still being done but now they use two related stocks. Ie they split an in-sector pairs trade across the client base.
Still, it's a lot of hard work when you can just set up a shell company, stick a few 'people' on the board, bung a bit of cash via Switzerland to an official in a third world country and then announce you are a mining company with a concession in Timbuctoo.
Next you ramp up the stock a bit while issuing huge lines to offshore investment firms then you get the usual PR entities to ramp it up big style and flog all your offshore holdings into the retail demand flow making an absolute fortune.
And yeah your idea is easier...
Back to not being a con man for me then...
I read it somewhere a while backstabbed rat said:
ahh, crap... I'm too late to the party then
And yeah your idea is easier...
Back to not being a con man for me then...
Don't worry, I'm sure the concept will still work very well and is still being used quite actively.And yeah your idea is easier...
Back to not being a con man for me then...
There's always the premium number scam. Send a letter on headed paper from a defunct US law firm to a load of addresses in Ireland saying you are handling the estate of an Irish immigrant worth millions and you think they may be related. Then ask them to call you. When they call they are mapped over to a premium number but think they are listening to an answering machine which asks them to slowly leave their full name and address etc.
What I don't really get is why people still, especially after 08, fall for these financial scams and systems.
Only six months ago a sales team arrived in my building and sold development sites in the Carribean via cold calling. Once they had taken sufficient deposits they dissapeared.
At the moment there is a whole raft of concepts being pushed out from spread betting systems, land parcelling, forrestry, Carbon trading as well as the usual fyne wynes and gold.
I dread to think how much money is lost by people every year to these things.
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The Penny Sleuth is an unregulated product published by MoneyWeek Ltd. Registered office 7th Floor, Sea Containers House, Upper Ground, London SE1 9JD. Customer services: 020 7633 3780. Registered in England and Wales No 04016750. VAT No GB629 7287 94. FSA No 509798. http://www.fsa.gov.uk/register/home.do MoneyWeek Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.
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So, what is the penny share secret we're talking about?
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It’s simple… but the fact is, quality research pays. It’s an established investment fact.
That’s why we’d like to introduce you to The Penny Sleuth…
It’s a FREE e-letter service written by Tom Bulford – a small cap expert with thirty years' City experience and one of the fattest contact books around.
Twice a week, Tom condenses the world of small cap investing down to one punchy email.
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Dave Taylor
"Your emails open my eyes to opportunities... I admire and respect your writings... I just want you to know I read and enjoy and appreciate your emails"
Graham Clobber
Click here and join them today.
Important Risk Warning
Information in The Penny Sleuth is for general information only and is not intended to be relied upon by individual readers in making (or not making) specific investment decisions.
Since The Penny Sleuth is a completely free email, we necessarily fund it with occasional - and carefully selected - advertising and offers from us or other companies. These opportunities are ones we believe you will find interesting. However we will never give your email address to any other companies. By signing up for The Penny Sleuth you are consenting to receive these promotions. For more information, please see our Privacy policy.
Your capital is at risk when you invest in shares – you can lose some or all of your money, so never risk more than you can afford to lose. Small company shares can be relatively illiquid and hard to trade making them riskier than other investments. Always seek personal advice if you are unsure about the suitability of any investment.
The Penny Sleuth is an unregulated product published by MoneyWeek Ltd. Registered office 7th Floor, Sea Containers House, Upper Ground, London SE1 9JD. Customer services: 020 7633 3780. Registered in England and Wales No 04016750. VAT No GB629 7287 94. FSA No 509798. http://www.fsa.gov.uk/register/home.do MoneyWeek Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.
Mystic on 2 January 2011 said:
Hey Noel, is it true some of the guys on this thread clubbed together and got you a Xmas present? I hear that it is a voucher for one of those "adventure days" which involves crossing the North Sea in a hot air balloon from near Great Yarmouth over to Esbjerg in Denmark. I hear it is valid for any day in January or February 2011. I think 1st to 5th February might be the best days for you to choose from....
Hey NW, how did you get on in your hot air balloon trip? I heard you took my advice and took off on the 3rd Feb.I hear from the BBC weather man that the Jetstream hitting the UK on that day was travelling at over 200 mph ("one of the most powerful" he had ever seen). My, who would have predicted that? What bad luck!!!
Is it true your trip was truly "adventurous" and you finally landed somewhere in northern Russia in the end?
Glad to see you are back Comrade!!
NoelWatson said:
Mystic. Please work on your Dow charts. I have had a margin call on my Abri-Form account, and if I don't make money soon, I am in trouble.
.... from my earlier posts in this thread, a "rough and ready" summary:Dow low in March 2009 + 22 months (approx) = Dow top in May 2011
Dow top in May 2011 + 22 months (approx) = Dow low in 2013? (strong risk of being under low of 2009? - you betcha!!)
NB: the bear moves may be shorter in time length than the bull moves
Mystic, I think we need you contribution in here http://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&a...
Andrew[MG] said:
Mystic, I think we need you contribution in here http://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&a...
Hmmm... my that is a very long thread and in just 5 months!Not sure I can add anything apart from, the markets will not be out of the woods until circa 2018 (as already stated years ago on this thread). Many more tears in the markets to come!
Not read everything (long post hence apologies) but expect the markets to recover sooner than one may think (& I'm a big euro bear fwiw)... Money invested in equities is incredibly low for the big asset managers (for the guys that run the "real" money in the hundreds of billions it could be as low as single digit in % terms) & with bonds looking over extended (and not quite a safe bet), commodities not too far from all time highs, hiding dosh under the bed will only work for so long... Granted this is a well peddled argument from many an investment bank over the last few years.
Trouble is you need about 5yrs of steady equity returns for th big money to return & pesky economic crisis over recent years have scuppered the plan - and helped spark the latest round of Investment banking firing...! But it will happen. And it'll be sometime in the next 12 months (in terms of buying he market and staying long for a good 5+ years).
(ex) alpha star
Trouble is you need about 5yrs of steady equity returns for th big money to return & pesky economic crisis over recent years have scuppered the plan - and helped spark the latest round of Investment banking firing...! But it will happen. And it'll be sometime in the next 12 months (in terms of buying he market and staying long for a good 5+ years).
(ex) alpha star
I don't know about time frames but I agree entirely. There is no money going into the equity markets but no shortage of money in the system.
Equity markets have been shunned for fairly obvious reasons.
When sentiment changes we are going to see the mother of all rallies in that sector.
Equity markets have been shunned for fairly obvious reasons.
When sentiment changes we are going to see the mother of all rallies in that sector.
Mystic said:
.... from my earlier posts in this thread, a "rough and ready" summary:
Dow low in March 2009 + 22 months (approx) = Dow top in May 2011
Dow top in May 2011 + 22 months (approx) = Dow low in 2013? (strong risk of being under low of 2009? - you betcha!!)
NB: the bear moves may be shorter in time length than the bull moves
Dow low in 2013? https://www.google.co.uk/finance?cid=983582 Coming soon?Dow low in March 2009 + 22 months (approx) = Dow top in May 2011
Dow top in May 2011 + 22 months (approx) = Dow low in 2013? (strong risk of being under low of 2009? - you betcha!!)
NB: the bear moves may be shorter in time length than the bull moves
DonkeyApple said:
I don't know about time frames but I agree entirely. There is no money going into the equity markets but no shortage of money in the system.
Equity markets have been shunned for fairly obvious reasons.
When sentiment changes we are going to see the mother of all rallies in that sector.
Well what do you know. Equity markets have been shunned for fairly obvious reasons.
When sentiment changes we are going to see the mother of all rallies in that sector.
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