Interest Rates
Discussion
I think that a cut is most likely but not as much as the markets think it is. I wouldn't cut personally, I'd raise rates, but then I want to cause Gordon Brown as much pain as I possibly can so I'm not really impartial.
By the way the ECB set rates tomorrow too, in this case I beleieve that a hold is extremely likely, and there's even a teeny possibility of a raise. I would be extremely suprised if there were a cut.
By the way the ECB set rates tomorrow too, in this case I beleieve that a hold is extremely likely, and there's even a teeny possibility of a raise. I would be extremely suprised if there were a cut.
I *think* all of this is correct, please let me know if not. 
The bank is supposed to set interest rates based on CPI, keeping it at 2% +/- 1%. I understand CPI is based on the last 12 months of data; therefore you won't get a quick swing.
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/CCI/nugget.asp?ID=19&...
The graph above shows we've been sitting above 2% for almost all the last 12 months, which means the bank should hold/increase rates to get inflation down.
Whether they will in the current climate, who knows? I reckon a hold is likely.
The bank is supposed to set interest rates based on CPI, keeping it at 2% +/- 1%. I understand CPI is based on the last 12 months of data; therefore you won't get a quick swing.
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/CCI/nugget.asp?ID=19&...
The graph above shows we've been sitting above 2% for almost all the last 12 months, which means the bank should hold/increase rates to get inflation down.
Whether they will in the current climate, who knows? I reckon a hold is likely.
edb49 said:
I *think* all of this is correct, please let me know if not.
The bank is supposed to set interest rates based on CPI, keeping it at 2% +/- 1%. I understand CPI is based on the last 12 months of data; therefore you won't get a quick swing.
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/CCI/nugget.asp?ID=19&...
The graph above shows we've been sitting above 2% for almost all the last 12 months, which means the bank should hold/increase rates to get inflation down.
Whether they will in the current climate, who knows? I reckon a hold is likely.
What they should do and what they do do is unfortunately very different. I reckon King will vote for hold but Gordon's cronies on the committee will vote for cut. The MPC forecasts seem to underestimate future inflation hence why CPI breached 3% a few months back. There is a massive amount of pressure in the media for a cut.The bank is supposed to set interest rates based on CPI, keeping it at 2% +/- 1%. I understand CPI is based on the last 12 months of data; therefore you won't get a quick swing.
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/CCI/nugget.asp?ID=19&...
The graph above shows we've been sitting above 2% for almost all the last 12 months, which means the bank should hold/increase rates to get inflation down.
Whether they will in the current climate, who knows? I reckon a hold is likely.
Different trading style, for a 1 lot may as well do a paper trade..Always been taught and ever since when mentoring junior traders to only trade when you have a view.If you have a view, no point it being a single lot considering the dv01.
Personally feel there is more opportunity in the post announvement trade flow for the next few hours up to the close as those who have had "bets" try to square up...good luck, hope you get to pay for lunch!
Personally feel there is more opportunity in the post announvement trade flow for the next few hours up to the close as those who have had "bets" try to square up...good luck, hope you get to pay for lunch!
I do have a view, but I don't really trade short sterling and would like to focus on Euribor and Euroswiss, if I've got it wrong on sterling I'm only going to lose a few ticks so don't have to worry about it (in fact I hit at it at 93.59 and it's trading 93.61 so I'm already losing 2 ticks)
Already paid for lunch thanks to a somewhat larger overnight I took
Already paid for lunch thanks to a somewhat larger overnight I took
g4ry13 said:
The majority were going for hold, nothing much has changed except for a canada cut - but the market's expecting a cut. So i've no idea which way it's going 
All I know is come 12:00 i'll be sat watching it live with my finger over the button ready to buy GBP/USD if they hold.
Is that not fully automated now?All I know is come 12:00 i'll be sat watching it live with my finger over the button ready to buy GBP/USD if they hold.
Retard said:
g4ry13 said:
The majority were going for hold, nothing much has changed except for a canada cut - but the market's expecting a cut. So i've no idea which way it's going
All I know is come 12:00 i'll be sat watching it live with my finger over the button ready to buy GBP/USD if they hold.
Is that not fully automated now?All I know is come 12:00 i'll be sat watching it live with my finger over the button ready to buy GBP/USD if they hold.
Edited by g4ry13 on Thursday 6th December 10:41
g4ry13 said:
Retard said:
g4ry13 said:
The majority were going for hold, nothing much has changed except for a canada cut - but the market's expecting a cut. So i've no idea which way it's going
All I know is come 12:00 i'll be sat watching it live with my finger over the button ready to buy GBP/USD if they hold.
Is that not fully automated now?All I know is come 12:00 i'll be sat watching it live with my finger over the button ready to buy GBP/USD if they hold.
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