2 year tracker - interest rates

2 year tracker - interest rates

Author
Discussion

jenzo

Original Poster:

354 posts

242 months

Monday 1st February 2016
quotequote all
Your thoughts please

Would it make sense for me to go for a 2 year tracker rate (resi) mortgage and re review after 2 years - given the state of the current economy and likelihood interest rates increasing in the next 24/36 months.

Sarnie

8,062 posts

210 months

Monday 1st February 2016
quotequote all
jenzo said:
Your thoughts please

Would it make sense for me to go for a 2 year tracker rate (resi) mortgage and re review after 2 years - given the state of the current economy and likelihood interest rates increasing in the next 24/36 months.
The gap between Tracker & Fixed rates isn't big enough to make the risk worthwhile....

Shaoxter

4,092 posts

125 months

Monday 1st February 2016
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Sarnie said:
The gap between Tracker & Fixed rates isn't big enough to make the risk worthwhile....
It is big enough on the mortgage I'm going for.
1.69% tracker (1.19% above base rate) vs 2.03% fixed for 2 years from Virgin Money.
So that's a breakeven of 0.34% over 2 years. If you're of the opinion that rates won't rise until next year then that's approx 3 rate rises in 2017 before you start being worse off compared to the fixed one.

Sarnie

8,062 posts

210 months

Monday 1st February 2016
quotequote all
Shaoxter said:
It is big enough on the mortgage I'm going for.
1.69% tracker (1.19% above base rate) vs 2.03% fixed for 2 years from Virgin Money.
So that's a breakeven of 0.34% over 2 years. If you're of the opinion that rates won't rise until next year then that's approx 3 rate rises in 2017 before you start being worse off compared to the fixed one.
0.34% difference, isn't a big enough gap to warrant the risk, in my opinion.......one half a percent rise and it's wiped out......

gibbon

2,182 posts

208 months

Monday 1st February 2016
quotequote all
0.34 difference over 2 years?

I'd risk going tracker if i was you. I dont think we hike this year. I also think when we do it will be slow and gentle, if they dont hike this year do i think the year after they hike enough to average over 0.68 higher for that year? No i dont.

However, thats just my view.

ChrisNic

597 posts

147 months

Monday 1st February 2016
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What does the tracker track, is it the BOE base rate or the Banks base rate - whilst it's unlikely that the two will vary it's not impossible that the banks rate could go up independently of the bank of England's.

Shaoxter

4,092 posts

125 months

Monday 1st February 2016
quotequote all
Sarnie said:
0.34% difference, isn't a big enough gap to warrant the risk, in my opinion.......one half a percent rise and it's wiped out......
Depends if/when that 0.5% rise comes, doesn't look likely in the near future.
Also paying 1% interest in year 1 then paying 3% interest in year 2 is cheaper than paying 2% interest from years 1-2 (simplifying the maths here).

ChrisNic said:
What does the tracker track, is it the BOE base rate or the Banks base rate
BoE base rate, says so on the website.

Sarnie

8,062 posts

210 months

Monday 1st February 2016
quotequote all
Shaoxter said:
Sarnie said:
0.34% difference, isn't a big enough gap to warrant the risk, in my opinion.......one half a percent rise and it's wiped out......
Depends if/when that 0.5% rise comes, doesn't look likely in the near future.
Also paying 1% interest in year 1 then paying 3% interest in year 2 is cheaper than paying 2% interest from years 1-2 (simplifying the maths here).

ChrisNic said:
What does the tracker track, is it the BOE base rate or the Banks base rate
BoE base rate, says so on the website.
It's all about attitude to risk and the impact that risk could have on an individual.......years ago the spread between fixed rates and trackers would be 1.5% or more, making the risk a lot more attractive and worthwhile, but 0.34% isn't enough, in my opinion.

DonkeyApple

55,829 posts

170 months

Monday 1st February 2016
quotequote all
It normally depends on whether there is an arrangement fee and what % that works out at in addition to the interest charge.

The real purpose of 2 year mortgages is to keep borrowers rolling over as often as possible and paying arrangement fees every couple of years with the other upside that the life of the debt is usually extended massively as a lot of people rollover at 25 years each time. wink

stongle

5,910 posts

163 months

Tuesday 2nd February 2016
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DonkeyApple said:
It normally depends on whether there is an arrangement fee and what % that works out at in addition to the interest charge.

The real purpose of 2 year mortgages is to keep borrowers rolling over as often as possible and paying arrangement fees every couple of years with the other upside that the life of the debt is usually extended massively as a lot of people rollover at 25 years each time. wink
Which is not always a terribly smart idea!

Interestingly, a certain bank allows you to reselect your deal every time your "rate deal" is up. I managed to fix mine @ BOE + 65bps for another 2 yrs recently without fee and keeping the term running. It might be worth asking if you can do the same. It allows you to continue to overpay and take a bearish view on rates. Sucks if Yellon is right. But personally I think she blew her load early. DA may disagree (and he's quite often on the money).

DonkeyApple

55,829 posts

170 months

Tuesday 2nd February 2016
quotequote all
stongle said:
DonkeyApple said:
It normally depends on whether there is an arrangement fee and what % that works out at in addition to the interest charge.

The real purpose of 2 year mortgages is to keep borrowers rolling over as often as possible and paying arrangement fees every couple of years with the other upside that the life of the debt is usually extended massively as a lot of people rollover at 25 years each time. wink
Which is not always a terribly smart idea!

Interestingly, a certain bank allows you to reselect your deal every time your "rate deal" is up. I managed to fix mine @ BOE + 65bps for another 2 yrs recently without fee and keeping the term running. It might be worth asking if you can do the same. It allows you to continue to overpay and take a bearish view on rates. Sucks if Yellon is right. But personally I think she blew her load early. DA may disagree (and he's quite often on the money).
I think that any of the many financial products that are designed to increase the number of transactions or generation greater fees in the long run, whether 0% card rates, 2 year property deals, car lease deals etc tend to be very beneficial to anyone who isn't in the greater % of targets who fall for them. So long as a user understands the structure and what it is intended to do then they can often be used to personal advantage.

Re Yellen, I think they reached the point that they had no choice but raise in order to maintain any market credibility but in an ideal world would have continued to postpone.

gibbon

2,182 posts

208 months

Wednesday 3rd February 2016
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The issue you also have is the cost to move providers. I am currently about to switch as my 2 year fix is up, i can get a 2y fix from a different provider at 1.17% or fix with my current at 1.39%. The legal and valuation fees involved mean a move is fairly pointless in order to say 20 odd ticks, even on a fairly high mortgage amount.