Human-nature?: One of EV’s unanswered questions:
Discussion
The vast majority of you are NOT going put a new battery in an 8YO car, and if you say you will - [some definitely will], yet the vast majority are bloody liars. And here’s why…
I’m sorry, human-nature is human-nature, the bulk of us drive the cars we do, because we can. Not because we need to. Most would get by with a 15YO Mondeo, yet we don’t? There’s far more going on.. Status is the big unwritten force. Nope, 90% of us drive cars, and worse, do this on finance because we can’t afford to flop the cash down at the dealership. We do this because we have a greater desire to impress people we don’t like.
An EV purchase is slightly different. It asks us to capitalise fuel-cost upfront in its battery, such that day-to-day costs are lower. It was bought on finance and impresses the neighbours, OK, the neighbours can’t afford their car either, but that’s all fine. What we’re getting is cars that dependent on who you listen to, have significant range reduction in 4-8 years. The ICE equivalent of requiring a replacement engine in any 4-8YO ICE vehicle. Thing is, few put a new engine in a 4-8YO ICE car. The existing EV set wouldn’t be seen dead in a 8YO car, and certainly won’t put a new battery in one. Its cost is only viable if they’re happy to drive what will become a 9-10-11-12…. 15-16YO car? Worse, those that currently buy 8YO ICE cars don’t put new engines in them either. If we’re students of human-nature, most of us buy a car on finance we can’t afford. Even if, ahem, even if… the battery is half the price and offers twice the range, we’re not going continue our drive to impress people that don’t like us running a 10YO car with a replacement battery that cost us say £8,000 or a helluva lot more?
If we’re amongst the 90% that buy cars on finance - clearly we can only afford the ‘payments’ not the car - it won’t be us that replaces batteries anymore than it's us that replaces ICE engines now. And as said, if you say you will, unless you’re the sorts with engine-cranes in your garage, you’re vying in idealism for a place as a Miss World contestant, or an ‘ocean-going’ bloody liar.
Which begs the question, who will?
I’m sorry, human-nature is human-nature, the bulk of us drive the cars we do, because we can. Not because we need to. Most would get by with a 15YO Mondeo, yet we don’t? There’s far more going on.. Status is the big unwritten force. Nope, 90% of us drive cars, and worse, do this on finance because we can’t afford to flop the cash down at the dealership. We do this because we have a greater desire to impress people we don’t like.
An EV purchase is slightly different. It asks us to capitalise fuel-cost upfront in its battery, such that day-to-day costs are lower. It was bought on finance and impresses the neighbours, OK, the neighbours can’t afford their car either, but that’s all fine. What we’re getting is cars that dependent on who you listen to, have significant range reduction in 4-8 years. The ICE equivalent of requiring a replacement engine in any 4-8YO ICE vehicle. Thing is, few put a new engine in a 4-8YO ICE car. The existing EV set wouldn’t be seen dead in a 8YO car, and certainly won’t put a new battery in one. Its cost is only viable if they’re happy to drive what will become a 9-10-11-12…. 15-16YO car? Worse, those that currently buy 8YO ICE cars don’t put new engines in them either. If we’re students of human-nature, most of us buy a car on finance we can’t afford. Even if, ahem, even if… the battery is half the price and offers twice the range, we’re not going continue our drive to impress people that don’t like us running a 10YO car with a replacement battery that cost us say £8,000 or a helluva lot more?
If we’re amongst the 90% that buy cars on finance - clearly we can only afford the ‘payments’ not the car - it won’t be us that replaces batteries anymore than it's us that replaces ICE engines now. And as said, if you say you will, unless you’re the sorts with engine-cranes in your garage, you’re vying in idealism for a place as a Miss World contestant, or an ‘ocean-going’ bloody liar.
Which begs the question, who will?
Edited by OldDuffer on Thursday 2nd December 09:01
Marketing is very easy towards people that like trinkets and things that look pretty, Apple were geniuses at it.
I do believe modern EV cars are at the moment trinkets, they serve a purpose yes, but they are a status symbol to some degree aswell.
For business use I get it, the tax breaks etc, why diesels worked why pickups work also.
But you only have to look at the way cars are sold to see how easy it is to sell cars to people who never look beyond novelty and have disposable wealth to spend on cars, remember cock lights on Audi's? They actually used it all the time in their adverts (and on their LM and DTM cars) and people were literally bending over backwards to get an Audi or manufacturers were thinking, my God are people really that easy to sell to, we must have these!! Or even further back the repmobiles and al the stuff they had at different levels of trim on basically the same car purely really for badge showing off purposes. Certain sections of the populace are ridiculously easy to sell to.
Now I am not saying everyone is like this, but a lot of people are, a decision can literally me made on a tiny thing like front headlights over another brand. I have literally seen it.
EV's are here to stay, it is clear, they will drop down the market to those that can eventually afford them, charging points hopefully too, but right now consumers have a choice and a few are making the choice to go electric because it looks good, makes them feel better about themselves, gives them something to talk about and potentially gives them a tax break.
Not always necessarily because they have to have one.
I do believe modern EV cars are at the moment trinkets, they serve a purpose yes, but they are a status symbol to some degree aswell.
For business use I get it, the tax breaks etc, why diesels worked why pickups work also.
But you only have to look at the way cars are sold to see how easy it is to sell cars to people who never look beyond novelty and have disposable wealth to spend on cars, remember cock lights on Audi's? They actually used it all the time in their adverts (and on their LM and DTM cars) and people were literally bending over backwards to get an Audi or manufacturers were thinking, my God are people really that easy to sell to, we must have these!! Or even further back the repmobiles and al the stuff they had at different levels of trim on basically the same car purely really for badge showing off purposes. Certain sections of the populace are ridiculously easy to sell to.
Now I am not saying everyone is like this, but a lot of people are, a decision can literally me made on a tiny thing like front headlights over another brand. I have literally seen it.
EV's are here to stay, it is clear, they will drop down the market to those that can eventually afford them, charging points hopefully too, but right now consumers have a choice and a few are making the choice to go electric because it looks good, makes them feel better about themselves, gives them something to talk about and potentially gives them a tax break.
Not always necessarily because they have to have one.
OldDuffer said:
OK, then, whatever that period is, I wrote "dependent on who you listen to" (pick a number) the question remains.
I think there's a couple of points here:"whatever the period is" isn't really "whatever". IF the battery survives the car as a whole. Be it 300k km or 500k km or 1M km, it's a moot point.
There are plenty of Tesla's around with well over 300k km on their original batteries. (there's also plenty who already had a replacement)
Nissan Leafs for example had other issues. They were early models, had very modest range from the start and suffered from some serious degradation in some cases. A lot has been learned about battery management though.
I think you're making an issue of something that isn't. A battery and motors drivetrain will outlast an ICE drivetrain in almost all cases already, and we're just getting started. So while your point stands (no-one replaces the ICE ENGINE in a 300k km car), BEV solve this by removing the need to replace it.
Better yet, if the car is worn out in other ways, the battery can be recycled or serve as a home battery for example. Loads of possibilities.
LukeBrown66 said:
EV's are here to stay, it is clear, they will drop down the market to those that can eventually afford them, charging points hopefully too, but right now consumers have a choice and a few are making the choice to go electric because it looks good, makes them feel better about themselves, gives them something to talk about and potentially gives them a tax break.
Or maybe people just like fast, comfortable and effortless cars. Sort of Mercedes/Rolls Royce/Bentley's whole shtick for the past century.Never having to stop for fuel is just an added bonus.
Edited by ZesPak on Thursday 2nd December 09:29
Some early EV adopters have surely just bought the latest new thing which some will always do, and then appear to be looking to renew the car on a 2 - 4 year cycle if they can. Provides a supply of used which is needed I guess. But yes status for those who are bothered. Spoke to someone who's collecting their £50k+ Tesla this week which is to be used primarily as a City runabout. A £2k Smart Car would be better suited to the job.
Human nature changes as the word does. The fact we don't do something today doesn't mean we won't do it in 10 years time.
If you'd told many of us in 2011 we'd be plugging our cars in via a 3-pin plug overnight for 'fuel' rather than visiting a petrol station weekly I'm sure most would have laughed. Yet here we are?
If you'd told many of us in 2011 we'd be plugging our cars in via a 3-pin plug overnight for 'fuel' rather than visiting a petrol station weekly I'm sure most would have laughed. Yet here we are?
SWoll said:
Human nature changes as the word does. The fact we don't do something today doesn't mean we won't do it in 10 years time.
If you'd told many of us in 2011 we'd be plugging our cars in via a 3-pin plug overnight for 'fuel' rather than visiting a petrol station weekly I'm sure most would have laughed. Yet here we are?
That's the first attempt to answer the question. And perhaps you're right. Yet, self-interest may motivate different behaviour, yet people don't really change. They say 'sex sells', status is the bigger driver, it sells more.If you'd told many of us in 2011 we'd be plugging our cars in via a 3-pin plug overnight for 'fuel' rather than visiting a petrol station weekly I'm sure most would have laughed. Yet here we are?
As for the rest... Whatever an EV (pick a number, but 'think' quite a bit shorter) life-cycle is, clearly EVs are here to stay. My broad question, who will volunteer significant amounts on an otherwise very serviceable old car at (pick a number) years remains unanswered. The fact it may do 300K (few people run that many miles in the battery life-cycle) circumvents the root question.
Edited by OldDuffer on Thursday 2nd December 09:59
OP basically boils down to:
"People that can afford a shiny new car won't replace the engine or batteries... That will be left to those that can only afford it when it's older and cheaper"
And what's is weird about that exactly?
Also some apparent misunderstanding at how new car financing/leasing works... The 'owner' is basically financing the depreciation a car is expected to suffer in the time they have use of it. It's no different to putting cash down then selling it 3 years later really. The big difference is that while interest rates are so low, tying up £60-80k in an EV would be idiotic for most in that position as that lump of capital could be put to far better use right now.
Also the industry is pushing towards lease culture, as such leasing an expensive new car is often far cheaper than owning it for the same period. Things tend to be cheaper when you're a consumer that fits in with the industries ideal model - although if the most imaginative thing an old fart can think of to do with their cash is to tie it up in something guaranteed to depreciate, then the industry will accept that money too
"People that can afford a shiny new car won't replace the engine or batteries... That will be left to those that can only afford it when it's older and cheaper"
And what's is weird about that exactly?
Also some apparent misunderstanding at how new car financing/leasing works... The 'owner' is basically financing the depreciation a car is expected to suffer in the time they have use of it. It's no different to putting cash down then selling it 3 years later really. The big difference is that while interest rates are so low, tying up £60-80k in an EV would be idiotic for most in that position as that lump of capital could be put to far better use right now.
Also the industry is pushing towards lease culture, as such leasing an expensive new car is often far cheaper than owning it for the same period. Things tend to be cheaper when you're a consumer that fits in with the industries ideal model - although if the most imaginative thing an old fart can think of to do with their cash is to tie it up in something guaranteed to depreciate, then the industry will accept that money too
LukeBrown66 said:
Marketing is very easy towards people that like trinkets and things that look pretty, Apple were geniuses at it.
I do believe modern EV cars are at the moment trinkets, they serve a purpose yes, but they are a status symbol to some degree aswell.
For business use I get it, the tax breaks etc, why diesels worked why pickups work also.
But you only have to look at the way cars are sold to see how easy it is to sell cars to people who never look beyond novelty and have disposable wealth to spend on cars, remember cock lights on Audi's? They actually used it all the time in their adverts (and on their LM and DTM cars) and people were literally bending over backwards to get an Audi or manufacturers were thinking, my God are people really that easy to sell to, we must have these!! Or even further back the repmobiles and al the stuff they had at different levels of trim on basically the same car purely really for badge showing off purposes. Certain sections of the populace are ridiculously easy to sell to.
Now I am not saying everyone is like this, but a lot of people are, a decision can literally me made on a tiny thing like front headlights over another brand. I have literally seen it.
EV's are here to stay, it is clear, they will drop down the market to those that can eventually afford them, charging points hopefully too, but right now consumers have a choice and a few are making the choice to go electric because it looks good, makes them feel better about themselves, gives them something to talk about and potentially gives them a tax break.
Not always necessarily because they have to have one.
Also many of us actually prefer the driver experience and convenience of electric over ICE. There are tangible positives to EV beyond the image and tax breaks.I do believe modern EV cars are at the moment trinkets, they serve a purpose yes, but they are a status symbol to some degree aswell.
For business use I get it, the tax breaks etc, why diesels worked why pickups work also.
But you only have to look at the way cars are sold to see how easy it is to sell cars to people who never look beyond novelty and have disposable wealth to spend on cars, remember cock lights on Audi's? They actually used it all the time in their adverts (and on their LM and DTM cars) and people were literally bending over backwards to get an Audi or manufacturers were thinking, my God are people really that easy to sell to, we must have these!! Or even further back the repmobiles and al the stuff they had at different levels of trim on basically the same car purely really for badge showing off purposes. Certain sections of the populace are ridiculously easy to sell to.
Now I am not saying everyone is like this, but a lot of people are, a decision can literally me made on a tiny thing like front headlights over another brand. I have literally seen it.
EV's are here to stay, it is clear, they will drop down the market to those that can eventually afford them, charging points hopefully too, but right now consumers have a choice and a few are making the choice to go electric because it looks good, makes them feel better about themselves, gives them something to talk about and potentially gives them a tax break.
Not always necessarily because they have to have one.
Image definitely matters to me if I'm honest.. but also I love a nice car as a driver.
TheDeuce said:
OP basically boils down to:
"People that can afford a shiny new car won't replace the engine or batteries... That will be left to those that can only afford it when it's older and cheaper"
And what's is weird about that exactly?
Because that's misquoted or misunderstood the question."People that can afford a shiny new car won't replace the engine or batteries... That will be left to those that can only afford it when it's older and cheaper"
And what's is weird about that exactly?
"People that can afford a shiny new car won't replace the engine or batteries... That will be left to those that can only afford it when it's older and cheaper" Only (pick a number) otherwise servicaeable cars with iffy ICE engines are worth £300 and head for the car-breakers. Why will an iffy battery be different? My question has again been circumvented.
Edited by OldDuffer on Thursday 2nd December 10:12
OldDuffer said:
TheDeuce said:
OP basically boils down to:
"People that can afford a shiny new car won't replace the engine or batteries... That will be left to those that can only afford it when it's older and cheaper"
And what's is weird about that exactly?
Because that's misquoted or misunderstood the question."People that can afford a shiny new car won't replace the engine or batteries... That will be left to those that can only afford it when it's older and cheaper"
And what's is weird about that exactly?
"People that can afford a shiny new car won't replace the engine or batteries... That will be left to those that can only afford it when it's older and cheaper" Only (pick a number) year old cars with iffy ICE engines are worth £300 and head for the car-breakers. Why will an iffy battery be different? My question has again been circumvented.
EV battery does decline but very steadily and broadly inline with the car itself becoming older and less desirable/valuable. So a person on a very tight budget in ten years time might end up picking up a 15 year old Nissan leaf that is plainly outdated and has limited range - but they'll make it work, because that's what their budget is. For everyone that needs and can afford a breand new EV, there is someone that will make use of that same car at a fraction of the price 10-15 years later.
There is no indication whatsoever that current EV batteries won't still offer a practical range when they reach the average age at which current ICE cars are scrapped.
TheDeuce said:
Also many of us actually prefer the driver experience and convenience of electric over ICE. There are tangible positives to EV beyond the image and tax breaks.
Image definitely matters to me if I'm honest.. but also I love a nice car as a driver.
You've reinforced my point, you're driving for now. You'll pass the problem on. But the question needs to be answered, and at some point, you can avoid it.Image definitely matters to me if I'm honest.. but also I love a nice car as a driver.
TheDeuce said:
.
There is no indication whatsoever that current EV batteries won't still offer a practical range when they reach the average age at which current ICE cars are scrapped.
And even when they have 50% capacity, there’s useful second life as energy storage for the home. There is no indication whatsoever that current EV batteries won't still offer a practical range when they reach the average age at which current ICE cars are scrapped.
10kWh of cheap storage in the house could be very useful.
OldDuffer said:
As for the rest... Whatever an EV (pick a number, but 'think' quite a bit shorter) life-cycle is, clearly EVs are here to stay. My broad question, who will volunteer significant amounts on an otherwise very serviceable old car at (pick a number) years remains unanswered. The fact it may do 300K (few people run that many miles in the battery life-cycle) circumvents the root question.
I "think" you need to think longer than whatever number you're picking.The fact is that a 300k km battery will last the average UK car TWENTY FIVE years.
I guess that does circumvent the root question? Again, who puts a new engine in a 15 year old Golf?
Your entire premise is the set up that the battery will "total loss" this car.
Let's put something else in there.
A Tesla 100D has a realistic range of 500km when new. It has a guarantee of 80% of that (400km) after 8 years.
Now imagine it just threads the needle on that guarantee and has a linear decline (which they don't). That means that a 20 year old Model S has a range of about 250km left. That is still a very usable car for most people, without any changes or maintenance to the drivetrain. Now show me what another big sedan with 500bhp will have needed during that timespan. That alone will have net you a new battery.
They are already refurbishing batteries for old Nissan Leafs so it's not unheard of either.
The folk that currently buy 10yo 7 series BMW's or S8 Audis will be the folk that buy 10yo EV's.
They'll have the same aggro with a 10yo EV that they currently have with their 10yo exec barge that they could never have afforded to buy outright when it was new.
But, some folk like that sort of aggro. They must, otherwise they'd never buy a 10yo exec barge, they'd buy a car they could "afford".
This thread is weird. I don't think you like cars, I think you like boiling the topic of motoring down to the minimum viable product, and then whinging about anything outside of that small sphere.
They'll have the same aggro with a 10yo EV that they currently have with their 10yo exec barge that they could never have afforded to buy outright when it was new.
But, some folk like that sort of aggro. They must, otherwise they'd never buy a 10yo exec barge, they'd buy a car they could "afford".
This thread is weird. I don't think you like cars, I think you like boiling the topic of motoring down to the minimum viable product, and then whinging about anything outside of that small sphere.
Mr E said:
And even when they have 50% capacity, there’s useful second life as energy storage for the home.
10kWh of cheap storage in the house could be very useful.
And you've still not understood or avoided the root of the question. When at 50% capacity, are you offering to put a new battery in what will be an unfashionable car? If it were an ICE car it'd still be good. By your answer it doesn't sound like it.10kWh of cheap storage in the house could be very useful.
SHutchinson said:
They'll have the same aggro with a 10yo EV that they currently have with their 10yo exec barge that they could never have afforded to buy outright when it was new.
This thread has got me twice. Not only do I have the EV only because I’m the type that buys “new shiny status symbol trinkets”
But I also have the 10 year old luxo barge that I can’t afford.
Edited by Mr E on Thursday 2nd December 10:33
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