Slump in EV sales on it's way?
Discussion
Just looking at forecast energy prices and if I'm right (please correct me if not!), electricity is going to go to 55p/kwh on price cap?
If an average EV does 3.5miles/kwh then cost per mile could be 16p to run one if charging at home.
If using Rapid Chargers perhaps the cost could go to >80p/kwh?? So 22p/mile.
Perhaps for a short period of high electricity costs that it will be cheaper to fuel a 4x4 SUV than a supermini EV?
Could this have an impact on the market and will buyers wait for electricity prices to come down a bit before making the switch? Especially if petrol/diesel continues to fall.
If an average EV does 3.5miles/kwh then cost per mile could be 16p to run one if charging at home.
If using Rapid Chargers perhaps the cost could go to >80p/kwh?? So 22p/mile.
Perhaps for a short period of high electricity costs that it will be cheaper to fuel a 4x4 SUV than a supermini EV?
Could this have an impact on the market and will buyers wait for electricity prices to come down a bit before making the switch? Especially if petrol/diesel continues to fall.
I think it will have an impact, but I don't think it will be reflected in EV sales. Remember that EVs are comparatively "chuffing expensive" so it's generally more wealthy folks buying them, or they're being leased as company cars. If it's wealthy folks buying them, they'll likely put up with the increased charging costs.
If the latter, most likely the electricity is being provided by workplace charging.
It may have an impact on the current rate of 5p/mile HMRC guidance fuel rate for reclaim, as it won't cover the costs unless your EV does 11 miles per kWh, which is around 2.4x the average economy of an EV.
For me, personally, the cost of electricity is already having an effect. I've put off installing a home charge point / wallbox because it doesn't make financial sense whilst workplace charging is available.
I do worry for how long supermarkets / Pod Point et al can continue to offer free 7 / 11 / 22kW chargers with the increased energy costs. I rely on a local 22kW 'free to use' Pod Point to get me out of trouble if I've used too much juice over the course of a weekend, to get me to work on a Monday morning!
If the latter, most likely the electricity is being provided by workplace charging.
It may have an impact on the current rate of 5p/mile HMRC guidance fuel rate for reclaim, as it won't cover the costs unless your EV does 11 miles per kWh, which is around 2.4x the average economy of an EV.
For me, personally, the cost of electricity is already having an effect. I've put off installing a home charge point / wallbox because it doesn't make financial sense whilst workplace charging is available.
I do worry for how long supermarkets / Pod Point et al can continue to offer free 7 / 11 / 22kW chargers with the increased energy costs. I rely on a local 22kW 'free to use' Pod Point to get me out of trouble if I've used too much juice over the course of a weekend, to get me to work on a Monday morning!
I did some calculations based on the recent InstaVolt price rise. It will be going up to 66p/kWh.
A 0 - 100% charge for my car (61kWh useable) would cost £40.26. Average efficiency is currently 3.22 miles/kWh, so 196 miles. That's equivalent to about 40mpg based on fuel being £1.80/L. Incidentally, 40mpg is the long term average on my up! GTI.
Our previous family car, a 2019 X3 2.0 petrol never saw much more than early 30s.
Thankfully my home tariff is 18.625p/kWh and it's fixed until mid 2024. £11.36 for a 0 - 100% charge, 196 miles, about 141mpg.
A 0 - 100% charge for my car (61kWh useable) would cost £40.26. Average efficiency is currently 3.22 miles/kWh, so 196 miles. That's equivalent to about 40mpg based on fuel being £1.80/L. Incidentally, 40mpg is the long term average on my up! GTI.
Our previous family car, a 2019 X3 2.0 petrol never saw much more than early 30s.
Thankfully my home tariff is 18.625p/kWh and it's fixed until mid 2024. £11.36 for a 0 - 100% charge, 196 miles, about 141mpg.
We also need to consider that more and more firms are signing up to the Govt supported salary sacrifice scheme that enables them to lease cars and pay the lease costs pre tax, same treatment as Pension payments, thereby enabling them to buy more expensive electric cars for less and get the same tax benefit as all company directors out there that have been taking them as company cars, we introduced just a month ago at work and already c30 employees have signed up and are now waiting for their cars.
Also consider the Benefit in Kind tax treatment and as an overall proposition the increased cost per mile will make in eectricity doesn't really make a huge difference to the overall savings.
We have one to offset all the petrol my 911 uses and i charge it for free at work....
Also consider the Benefit in Kind tax treatment and as an overall proposition the increased cost per mile will make in eectricity doesn't really make a huge difference to the overall savings.
We have one to offset all the petrol my 911 uses and i charge it for free at work....
Am sure very quickly the bubble will burst.
Whilst not comparable vehicles price/spec wise, i calculated that right now my sons new Polo Match is cheaper to run than my Wife's Tesla M3LR.
Polo costs £50 to fill but will do around 450 miles on that, Wife's Tesla on home charge at today's rates costing around £25 & for that would struggle to get much more than 220 miles, but if using the S/C network it would be close to £35 for a full charge.
With the hike in rates coming in October, I'd expect a full charge at home to be closer to £35 & at a S/C this would be £45 so economics defo trending away from an EV.
If this carries on, my M5C will soon become more economical (& considerably more fun) than our M3LR.
Whilst not comparable vehicles price/spec wise, i calculated that right now my sons new Polo Match is cheaper to run than my Wife's Tesla M3LR.
Polo costs £50 to fill but will do around 450 miles on that, Wife's Tesla on home charge at today's rates costing around £25 & for that would struggle to get much more than 220 miles, but if using the S/C network it would be close to £35 for a full charge.
With the hike in rates coming in October, I'd expect a full charge at home to be closer to £35 & at a S/C this would be £45 so economics defo trending away from an EV.
If this carries on, my M5C will soon become more economical (& considerably more fun) than our M3LR.
dibblecorse said:
We also need to consider that more and more firms are signing up to the Govt supported salary sacrifice scheme that enables them to lease cars and pay the lease costs pre tax...
This is a good point. I can't see new car sales changing much as you point out the tax benefits make them very attractive.
I wonder whether private buyers, maybe buying nearly new/used, would be put off.
w8pmc said:
Am sure very quickly the bubble will burst.
Whilst not comparable vehicles price/spec wise, i calculated that right now my sons new Polo Match is cheaper to run than my Wife's Tesla M3LR.
Polo costs £50 to fill but will do around 450 miles on that, Wife's Tesla on home charge at today's rates costing around £25 & for that would struggle to get much more than 220 miles, but if using the S/C network it would be close to £35 for a full charge.
With the hike in rates coming in October, I'd expect a full charge at home to be closer to £35 & at a S/C this would be £45 so economics defo trending away from an EV.
If this carries on, my M5C will soon become more economical (& considerably more fun) than our M3LR.
Aren't a number of Teslas on free charging for life at the Tesla Superchargers or is that just older models?Whilst not comparable vehicles price/spec wise, i calculated that right now my sons new Polo Match is cheaper to run than my Wife's Tesla M3LR.
Polo costs £50 to fill but will do around 450 miles on that, Wife's Tesla on home charge at today's rates costing around £25 & for that would struggle to get much more than 220 miles, but if using the S/C network it would be close to £35 for a full charge.
With the hike in rates coming in October, I'd expect a full charge at home to be closer to £35 & at a S/C this would be £45 so economics defo trending away from an EV.
If this carries on, my M5C will soon become more economical (& considerably more fun) than our M3LR.
I think also a lot of people don't think of the cost of charging their car at home, I've got a friend who recently bought an i3 and loves it and is 'free' to run in comparison with her Disco 5....
Its almost like the energy industry has seen whats coming and contrived to bolster income, I know they havent or not wholly as dont think Putin is some puppet of Shell etc, but does have a feeling of being somewhat convenient.
I wonder though, will this be the catalyst for more local electricity generation, cant get a quote for Solar these days as the installers are so busy, maybe communities putting in their own, local solar and wind power separate to the grid ?
I know not everyone has the money to do so, but I think stuff like that will emerge along with more energy theft and other crime as folk struggle and take to shoplifting and stuff to try and make ends meet, its very early days though as this hasnt sunk in, but by next year I expect it will be a quid per kwh, unless something happens then society will start to break down as folk will be mighty pissed of, desperate and hungry.
Trouble is a lot of PH is much wealthier than the average, and the average is a lot wealthier than a lot of folk who wont be able to afford to live even a fairly frugal life.
So, your EV costing £40 to charge isnt going to be a problem when there are gangs marauding round wealthy areas taking whatever they fancy, this isnt a 10 % council tax bill increase we can grumble about then pay and forget, its a fourfold increase in the cost of a necessity, and wearing a jumper doesnt cover everything despite what Daily Express readers will tell you.
The Camel was already limping and looking a bit knackered, this aint a straw, this is two fat tourists and their luggage climbing on.
Where is all this money landing ? Are these companies happy that their customers are getting royally f
ked ? Are they doing anything to help ?
Its all very well whilst the sun is shining, the days are still long and the biggest increases havent hit yet, another month and the leaves are properly falling, there is a nip in the air and the nights are drawing in....
J4CKO, AKA Prvt Fraser
I wonder though, will this be the catalyst for more local electricity generation, cant get a quote for Solar these days as the installers are so busy, maybe communities putting in their own, local solar and wind power separate to the grid ?
I know not everyone has the money to do so, but I think stuff like that will emerge along with more energy theft and other crime as folk struggle and take to shoplifting and stuff to try and make ends meet, its very early days though as this hasnt sunk in, but by next year I expect it will be a quid per kwh, unless something happens then society will start to break down as folk will be mighty pissed of, desperate and hungry.
Trouble is a lot of PH is much wealthier than the average, and the average is a lot wealthier than a lot of folk who wont be able to afford to live even a fairly frugal life.
So, your EV costing £40 to charge isnt going to be a problem when there are gangs marauding round wealthy areas taking whatever they fancy, this isnt a 10 % council tax bill increase we can grumble about then pay and forget, its a fourfold increase in the cost of a necessity, and wearing a jumper doesnt cover everything despite what Daily Express readers will tell you.
The Camel was already limping and looking a bit knackered, this aint a straw, this is two fat tourists and their luggage climbing on.
Where is all this money landing ? Are these companies happy that their customers are getting royally f
ked ? Are they doing anything to help ?Its all very well whilst the sun is shining, the days are still long and the biggest increases havent hit yet, another month and the leaves are properly falling, there is a nip in the air and the nights are drawing in....
J4CKO, AKA Prvt Fraser
w8pmc said:
Am sure very quickly the bubble will burst.
Whilst not comparable vehicles price/spec wise, i calculated that right now my sons new Polo Match is cheaper to run than my Wife's Tesla M3LR.
Polo costs £50 to fill but will do around 450 miles on that, Wife's Tesla on home charge at today's rates costing around £25 & for that would struggle to get much more than 220 miles, but if using the S/C network it would be close to £35 for a full charge.
With the hike in rates coming in October, I'd expect a full charge at home to be closer to £35 & at a S/C this would be £45 so economics defo trending away from an EV.
If this carries on, my M5C will soon become more economical (& considerably more fun) than our M3LR.
This is interesting, most people go on the assumption that EV fuel is basically free.Whilst not comparable vehicles price/spec wise, i calculated that right now my sons new Polo Match is cheaper to run than my Wife's Tesla M3LR.
Polo costs £50 to fill but will do around 450 miles on that, Wife's Tesla on home charge at today's rates costing around £25 & for that would struggle to get much more than 220 miles, but if using the S/C network it would be close to £35 for a full charge.
With the hike in rates coming in October, I'd expect a full charge at home to be closer to £35 & at a S/C this would be £45 so economics defo trending away from an EV.
If this carries on, my M5C will soon become more economical (& considerably more fun) than our M3LR.
66HFM said:
Aren't a number of Teslas on free charging for life at the Tesla Superchargers or is that just older models?
I think also a lot of people don't think of the cost of charging their car at home, I've got a friend who recently bought an i3 and loves it and is 'free' to run in comparison with her Disco 5....
Our i3S does approx 3.4kw/h, so currently costs 8.2p/mi on the price cap. If electricity does double it will go to 16p/mi which is the same price as fuelling our 3.0TDI Q7 when diesel is £1.50/l... I think it's nearly twice the weight...I think also a lot of people don't think of the cost of charging their car at home, I've got a friend who recently bought an i3 and loves it and is 'free' to run in comparison with her Disco 5....
greggy50 said:
Most EV owners will have a cheap night rate tariff which I can't see ending anytime soon as economy 7 has been about for years...
I pay 7.5p per kwh so £5.62 for 250 miles of motoring.
Even if that went up to say 20p it would still only be £15 for 250 miles in a 470bhp car.
But if you're new to EVs those tariffs aren't currently available (I don't think)?I pay 7.5p per kwh so £5.62 for 250 miles of motoring.
Even if that went up to say 20p it would still only be £15 for 250 miles in a 470bhp car.
chrisk said:
greggy50 said:
Most EV owners will have a cheap night rate tariff which I can't see ending anytime soon as economy 7 has been about for years...
I pay 7.5p per kwh so £5.62 for 250 miles of motoring.
Even if that went up to say 20p it would still only be £15 for 250 miles in a 470bhp car.
But if you're new to EVs those tariffs aren't currently available (I don't think)?I pay 7.5p per kwh so £5.62 for 250 miles of motoring.
Even if that went up to say 20p it would still only be £15 for 250 miles in a 470bhp car.
https://octopus.energy/go/
As does EDF which is 4.5p so even cheaper it appears.
https://www.edfenergy.com/sites/default/files/goel...
greggy50 said:
Octopus Go is still available to my knowledge?
https://octopus.energy/go/
As does EDF which is 4.5p so even cheaper it appears.
https://www.edfenergy.com/sites/default/files/goel...
Neither tariffs are available when you go to click to switch, just this generic message:https://octopus.energy/go/
As does EDF which is 4.5p so even cheaper it appears.
https://www.edfenergy.com/sites/default/files/goel...
We’re sorry, we can’t offer you a quote today
Unfortunately, due to ongoing energy market volatility, we don’t currently have any GoElectric tariffs available for sale. Please check back shortly, we’ll re-introduce the tariff for sale as soon as possible.
We can also email you when we have an EV tariff available again if you sign up to Energy Price Alerts.
Octopus:
With global energy prices at record highs, you're unlikely to be better off by switching at this time.
If you think that's incorrect and would like a personalised quote, please call and speak to one of our experts on 08081693274 with your current energy prices to hand. Our lines are open 9am - 5pm
When normality resumes I agree they are definitely worth doing.
chrisk said:
greggy50 said:
Octopus Go is still available to my knowledge?
https://octopus.energy/go/
As does EDF which is 4.5p so even cheaper it appears.
https://www.edfenergy.com/sites/default/files/goel...
Neither tariffs are available when you go to click to switch, just this generic message:https://octopus.energy/go/
As does EDF which is 4.5p so even cheaper it appears.
https://www.edfenergy.com/sites/default/files/goel...
We’re sorry, we can’t offer you a quote today
Unfortunately, due to ongoing energy market volatility, we don’t currently have any GoElectric tariffs available for sale. Please check back shortly, we’ll re-introduce the tariff for sale as soon as possible.
We can also email you when we have an EV tariff available again if you sign up to Energy Price Alerts.
Octopus:
With global energy prices at record highs, you're unlikely to be better off by switching at this time.
If you think that's incorrect and would like a personalised quote, please call and speak to one of our experts on 08081693274 with your current energy prices to hand. Our lines are open 9am - 5pm
When normality resumes I agree they are definitely worth doing.
Come October it probably makes financial sense again when the day rate goes up for everyone else.
It said similar online when I moved house 8-9 months ago from memory but as we were not tied into a fixed cheap deal and I did high mileage we switched anyway. As it was we had to select Octopus and then move to Octopus Go a month later.
The day rate was about 5p more than the cheapest tariffs at the time but the maths more than stacked up overall as my car probably consumes 40% of the electric we use.
greggy50 said:
chrisk said:
greggy50 said:
Most EV owners will have a cheap night rate tariff which I can't see ending anytime soon as economy 7 has been about for years...
I pay 7.5p per kwh so £5.62 for 250 miles of motoring.
Even if that went up to say 20p it would still only be £15 for 250 miles in a 470bhp car.
But if you're new to EVs those tariffs aren't currently available (I don't think)?I pay 7.5p per kwh so £5.62 for 250 miles of motoring.
Even if that went up to say 20p it would still only be £15 for 250 miles in a 470bhp car.
https://octopus.energy/go/
As does EDF which is 4.5p so even cheaper it appears.
https://www.edfenergy.com/sites/default/files/goel...
greggy50 said:
chrisk said:
greggy50 said:
Most EV owners will have a cheap night rate tariff which I can't see ending anytime soon as economy 7 has been about for years...
I pay 7.5p per kwh so £5.62 for 250 miles of motoring.
Even if that went up to say 20p it would still only be £15 for 250 miles in a 470bhp car.
But if you're new to EVs those tariffs aren't currently available (I don't think)?I pay 7.5p per kwh so £5.62 for 250 miles of motoring.
Even if that went up to say 20p it would still only be £15 for 250 miles in a 470bhp car.
https://octopus.energy/go/
As does EDF which is 4.5p so even cheaper it appears.
https://www.edfenergy.com/sites/default/files/goel...
Those rates are fixed until July 2023.
What i've seen with this price hike is the increase in people considering EVs AND solar/storage.
If you are planning on staying at your current place for 5 years or more, it could be a really worthwhile investment.
and yes, i know, it's not in reach of everyone, but they do offer 0 deposit solar now - i'd rather be paying £150 a month towards my panels which will end up mine than giving it to OVO.
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