Canada Elections - big turnaround

[Mannginger]

I looked back a few pages and did a search but couldn't see a thread on this.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cr5d13e4r2rt

Hell of a turnaround in fortunes for both parties. Clearly Trump's inflammatory language has had a significant impact on the outcome of this election and he's really not helped himself if he had a genuine strategy to court Canada.

Carney seems to be a sensible centrist although not yet clear if hell have a majority or not. Either way he's got a lot of work to do as, prior to Trump's interventions the political wind definitely looked like shifting and the underlying causes for that will still be in the electorate.

From a UK persepctive Carney is of course a known entity and generally a safe pair of hands but the pressures h'll be under to decouple from the US may mean he exerts some pressure on us for deals that could damage (further) our relationships withthe US administration. Be intersting to see how Starmer and other global leaders handle that balancing act.

Any Candadians on here who can offer any specific insight? Seems to be a "good result" but appreciate I'm looking at that through a lens of someone who's pretty comfortable with centrist and globalist outlooks.

[captain_cynic]

6 months ago I'd have called this an easy win for the Canadian Conservatives.

However Trumps rhetoric combined with Pollievre using similar tactics and rhetoric to Trump has turned this around to an easy victory for Carney and the Liberal party.

Carney is probably going to fall short of a majority and depend on making a deal with Bloc Quebecois.

Interesting to note that Alberta and Saskatchewan are almost all Conservative with the Liberals only winning 3 seats between the two. Possibly setting up a rift between the prairies and central/eastern Canada.

This is pretty much all down to Trump though and I think we're going to see similar things in other countries resulting from Trumps rhetoric and displays of incompetence and totalitarianism driving voters away from conservatives and right wing parties.. Australia is up next but the LNP (conservatives) have been digging their own grave even without the help of Trump.

[Byker28i]

Canada is pretty much split anyway with French / French-english sides, but that just means more problems for Carney, dealing with divisions. It's a huge country, driving from side to side. It's a couple of days, 4500 km, as my wife once suggested we drove to Vancouver to see her other cousin, from Quebec...

There's no doubt that trumps threats to annex Canada, the tariffs and comments undermining Canada's sovereignty played a huge role in this election. As said a surprise from a few months ago but speaking to our Canadian cousins, they were happy to see Trudeau go, they said noone was happy with trump.

Edited by Byker28i on Tuesday 29th April 09:42

[Mannginger]

Oof, Poilievre lost his own seat. That's got to sting!

[ChocolateFrog]

Byker28i said:

Canada is pretty much split anyway with French / French-english sides, but that just means more problems for Carney, dealing with divisions. It's a huge country, driving from side to side. It's a couple of days, 4500 km, as my wife once suggested we drove to Vancouver to see her other cousin, from Quebec...

There's no doubt that trumps threats to annex Canada, the tariffs and comments undermining Canada's sovereignty played a huge role in this election. As said a surprise from a few months ago but speaking to our Canadian cousins, they were happy to see Trudeau go, they said noone was happy with trump.

Edited by Byker28i on Tuesday 29th April 09:42

We're going to Canada this summer.

The internal flight East to West is only 2hrs shorter than the flight from the UK. Put the distance into perspective for me.

[captain_cynic]

Mannginger said:

Oof, Poilievre lost his own seat. That's got to sting!

As noted by the Beeb, he'll have to go and get his first proper job since being a paper boy. He's been a career politician.

I'm sure he'll be fine doing the speaking circuit as that's where most ex-leaders tend to go.

[Carl_VivaEspana]

Mannginger said:

Carney seems to be a sensible centrist

He was a regular in the local drinking scene for years in a particular area of London when he was working at the BOE.

He is a nice person and a regular bloke.

The problem is the Liberal party and I think the vote was a big mistake last night, they will only run Canada further into the ground unless Carney can somehow constrain the party.

[RDMcG]

Trump influence was huge and there weee concerns that Polievre was not get guy to stand up to him. Less enthusiasm for carney than a feeling best of a bad lot. Third party NDP was mauled as strategic voters moved to Liberals.
Big unknown apart from Trump is whether he can manage deficit . I am not optimistic.

[Skodillac]

Carl_VivaEspana said:

Mannginger said:

Carney seems to be a sensible centrist

He was a regular in the local drinking scene for years in a particular area of London when he was working at the BOE.

He is a nice person and a regular bloke.

The problem is the Liberal party and I think the vote was a big mistake last night, they will only run Canada further into the ground unless Carney can somehow constrain the party.

In what way is Canada "in the ground", Carl? No, don't tell me, too many immigrants and transgender rights, yeah? Something like that anyway.

In reality, it's one of the most successful and happy countries on Earth. Because of liberal values, not despite them.

The only way the country would be run into the ground is if they elected some fascist-adjacent utter fruitcake like Trump, who is currently and quite literally directing the USA into disaster in just about every conceivable way. But thanks to the example of Trump's manifest abhorrence, the people of Canada appear to have wised up to right-wing nationalist nutcase blowhardery, in the nick of time. Would that the UK could have been so fortunate in 2016 and 2019, and we might not have been piloted into the hard, unforgiving ground by Brexit, Johnson and Truss.

Edited by Skodillac on Tuesday 29th April 11:25

[simon_harris]

Skodillac said:

Carl_VivaEspana said:

Mannginger said:

Carney seems to be a sensible centrist

He was a regular in the local drinking scene for years in a particular area of London when he was working at the BOE.

He is a nice person and a regular bloke.

The problem is the Liberal party and I think the vote was a big mistake last night, they will only run Canada further into the ground unless Carney can somehow constrain the party.

In what way is Canada "in the ground", Carl? No, don't tell me, too many immigrants and transgender rights, yeah? Something like that anyway.

In reality, it's one of the most successful and happy countries on Earth. Because of liberal values, not despite them.

The only way the country would be run into the ground is if they elected some fascist-adjacent utter fruitcake like Trump, who is currently and quite literally directing the USA into disaster in just about every conceivable way. But thanks to the example of Trump's manifest abhorrence, the people of Canada appear to have wised up to right-wing nationalist nutcase blowhardery, in the nick of time. Would that the UK could have been so fortunate in 2016 and 2019, and we might not have been piloted into the hard, unforgiving ground by Brexit, Johnson and Truss.

Edited by Skodillac on Tuesday 29th April 11:25

So long as you are happy to have your bank accounts frozen for supporting an anti-government protest it is a great place.

Swapping Carney in for Trudeau was a smart play by the liberal party they I am sure they would have been smashed if he was still in place.

[Skodillac]

simon_harris said:

So long as you are happy to have your bank accounts frozen for supporting an anti-government protest it is a great place.

Swapping Carney in for Trudeau was a smart play by the liberal party they I am sure they would have been smashed if he was still in place.

With the UK having introduced illiberal anti-protest legislation under a Conservative government (who were afraid of being told the truth) recently, anyone on the right of politics is in no position to preach on this topic.

I agree Trudeau had become toxic and hugely unpopular though, so yes Carney was the right choice for the Liberal party. He appears to be pretty much the leader of the free world now (alongside Zelenskyy), unafraid to stand up to bullies and dictators like Trump. I wish our own PM were of the same ilk.

[The G Kid]

Skodillac said:

In what way is Canada "in the ground", Carl?

Edited by Skodillac on Tuesday 29th April 11:25

I'm guessing a good indication would have been the polls prior to Trumps arrival.

[fttm]

Western Canadian, staggered that the party who have done so much damage to Canada over the last decade have been voted back in . Yes , there is an East/West rift

[BlackTails]

fttm said:

Western Canadian, staggered that the party who have done so much damage to Canada over the last decade have been voted back in . Yes , there is an East/West rift

No.

Alberta and Saskatchewan were carried by the Conservatives. Manitoba was close but just edged by the Conservatives. BC, Yukon, NWT all went to the Liberals. Ditto everywhere east of Manitoba.

It’s the empty prairie provinces vs the rest.

[gregs656]

fttm said:

Western Canadian, staggered that the party who have done so much damage to Canada over the last decade have been voted back in . Yes , there is an East/West rift

I think that speaks to how poor Poilievre’s strategy has been over the last 4 months. The Conservatives spent a lot of money making Trudeau and Singh the enemy and that worked… right up until Trudeau resigned.

Poilievre didn’t distance himself and the party from Trump quickly enough.

Carney was smart enough to take the air from the Conservatives, simple things like abandoning the carbon tax. Not being part of the Trudeau govt obviously helps a lot.

[S600BSB]

A sensational victory for Carney and a very sensible choice for Canada.

[Tindersticks]

Incredible political naivety from Poilievre to lean into Trump and MAGA.

There are not enough LOLs in the world that he lost his own seat.

[RDMcG]

As is normal in Canada, a fairly low key election; the Trump thread certainly united people against any threat of annexation; Canada is a country where most of the flashpoints in the US are absent. Abortion, gay marriage, medically assisted death ,national health care, lack of national guard, militias, no second amendment rights and so on are not seriously a concern as those issues have been decided.

The frustration for me is that I would like a socially liberal but fiscally conservative political leadership. There was a time under Jean Chretien as PM where Canada ran surpluses but he held back for a rainy day despite be8ng a Liberal. He got my vote. However, a Conservative government to be effective needs a centrist PM and Polievre was too far right for Canadians.

I am very glad to see the end of the detestable Trudeau who wrought disaster on the budget while he swanned about in fancy dress,