Predictions on Base Rate in 2 years

Predictions on Base Rate in 2 years

Author
Discussion

Pferdestarke

Original Poster:

7,185 posts

188 months

Saturday 28th March 2009
quotequote all
If I take a Tracker over a fixed at the moment I will save £196 / month. I would be tied in for two years.

Do you think the rates will be back up to daft levels again inside 2 years or would you take the risk?

I could bail out of it now and fix for 2, 3, or even 5 years.

Not sure how to proceed.

AlexKP

16,484 posts

245 months

Saturday 28th March 2009
quotequote all
I think the rates will go in. And then out.

And then they'll move around a bit, and shake it all about.


HTH.












Very few financial "experts" saw this entire global clusterf*ck coming, so I wouldn't put too much credence on predictions from the same experts on what the interest rates will be doing two years from now. I don't think anyone really has a clue what is going on...

tonyvid

9,869 posts

244 months

Saturday 28th March 2009
quotequote all
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Close the thread now.

Mclovin

1,679 posts

199 months

Saturday 28th March 2009
quotequote all
well labour have been holding down low rates for years using fiddled figures, something will have to be down...

jimmyd123

371 posts

221 months

Sunday 29th March 2009
quotequote all
Pferdestarke said:
If I take a Tracker over a fixed at the moment I will save £196 / month. I would be tied in for two years.

Do you think the rates will be back up to daft levels again inside 2 years or would you take the risk?

I could bail out of it now and fix for 2, 3, or even 5 years.

Not sure how to proceed.
Daft levels? Haven't they been at historic lows for over a decade?

V8A*ndy

3,695 posts

192 months

Sunday 29th March 2009
quotequote all
8% spin

Jasandjules

70,012 posts

230 months

Sunday 29th March 2009
quotequote all
jimmyd123 said:
Daft levels? Haven't they been at historic lows for over a decade?
Artificially.

I can't see us being able to sustain such low levels long term.

bluetone

2,047 posts

220 months

Sunday 29th March 2009
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"The only way is up"

/Yaz

V8mate

45,899 posts

190 months

Sunday 29th March 2009
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3%

215cu

2,956 posts

211 months

Sunday 29th March 2009
quotequote all
In two years?

Hmmm... well it doesn't take a genius to work out in which direction they are going.

I think though, UK debt will have to be priced to be far more attractive and as the quantitative easing starts to leech from assets into the cash economy.

In 2 years - I'd say 7%

Personally, I'd opt for a reasonable fixed rate, anything around 3.79% over 5 years will be a very good deal.

Dave_ST220

10,302 posts

206 months

Sunday 29th March 2009
quotequote all
Where can you get anything fixed for that rate for 5 years? Not seen anything like that.

Edited by Dave_ST220 on Sunday 29th March 10:01

groucho

12,134 posts

247 months

Sunday 29th March 2009
quotequote all
V8A*ndy said:
8% spin
My gut feeling agrees.

Martial Arts Man

6,610 posts

187 months

Sunday 29th March 2009
quotequote all
This rate uncertainty is paralysing.

I have been offered a very cheap property....I am terrified to get into it right now as I just have no idea where things will end up.

My gut tells me that the end of a 5 year fix will land right in the middle of hyper-rates......


I'm normally such an optimist too.


Worrying isn't it.

rsv gone!

11,288 posts

242 months

Sunday 29th March 2009
quotequote all
The only reason they'd increase rates significantly is if the economy suddenly went into overdrive and they had to control house prices and/or inflation.

I reckon this recession will last a damn sight longer than that so OP, I'd definitely take that gamble.

Incidentally, low interest rates and printing money were both techniques used in Japan in the early nineties and IIRC it took them at least a decade to get back on their feet.

Matt..

3,627 posts

190 months

Sunday 29th March 2009
quotequote all
My opinion is 8% in 5yrs. However, if you look at Japan, they have had a maximum of 0.5% since ~1995.

So it will either go up really high, and very quickly... or stay really low. This confusion is why i am not looking for a house too seriously yet!

trooperiziz

9,456 posts

253 months

Sunday 29th March 2009
quotequote all
IMO interest rates may slowly creep up over the next couple of years, but will sharply rise mid 2012, which just so happens to be mid term for the new Conservative government.

Oh wait, interest rates aren't controlled by the government any more, are they? wink

Pferdestarke

Original Poster:

7,185 posts

188 months

Sunday 29th March 2009
quotequote all
215cu said:
In two years?

Hmmm... well it doesn't take a genius to work out in which direction they are going.

I think though, UK debt will have to be priced to be far more attractive and as the quantitative easing starts to leech from assets into the cash economy.

In 2 years - I'd say 7%

Personally, I'd opt for a reasonable fixed rate, anything around 3.79% over 5 years will be a very good deal.
Yes that would be great if you have an LTV of 50% but I'm only 28 and therefore have only 15% equity. More like 6.5% for me if I fix. Banks should be robbed more often as they rob us on a daily basis.

maser_spyder

6,356 posts

183 months

Sunday 29th March 2009
quotequote all
We're frantically squirrelling away cash and knocking off the capital on all of our mortgages, almost all of ours are on variable rate so are cheap at the moment.

We're already thinking interest rates will go high to counter the stupid lows at the moment, hence reducing the gearing so we have less interest to pay in a couple of years.

Rates at 8 or 10% would mean us subsidising our tenants, which we can afford to do, but would obviously rather not.

Get saving saving saving and pay your mortgage off quickly while rates are low, rates are only going to go one way from here....

NoelWatson

11,710 posts

243 months

Sunday 29th March 2009
quotequote all
Pferdestarke said:
215cu said:
In two years?

Hmmm... well it doesn't take a genius to work out in which direction they are going.

I think though, UK debt will have to be priced to be far more attractive and as the quantitative easing starts to leech from assets into the cash economy.

In 2 years - I'd say 7%

Personally, I'd opt for a reasonable fixed rate, anything around 3.79% over 5 years will be a very good deal.
Yes that would be great if you have an LTV of 50% but I'm only 28 and therefore have only 15% equity. More like 6.5% for me if I fix. Banks should be robbed more often as they rob us on a daily basis.
How much money do you think they will make if they are offering you 6.5% at 85% LTV?

digger_R

1,807 posts

207 months

Sunday 29th March 2009
quotequote all
why not just buy when you can afford it? that way you won't be too bothered if rates go up significantly