October 2010 property bet
Discussion
Following on from last year
http://www.pistonheads.co.uk/gassing/topic.asp?h=0...
Bit late starting this year, but format is very similar
Pugsey and I are having a bet on the future value of property. Specifically, we are betting on whether the average house price will be higher in October 2010 than it is today. For the baseline we are using Halifax Feb 2010
http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/word/HPI/2...
with an Feb 2010 average of £166,857. When the October 2010 report comes out, if...
a). the average house price is equal to or more than £166,857, Noel pays £250 to Poppy Appeal
b). the average house price is less than £166,857, Pugsey pays £250 to Poppy Appeal.
I will update this thread on a monthly basis with the Halifax numbers.
http://www.pistonheads.co.uk/gassing/topic.asp?h=0...
Bit late starting this year, but format is very similar
Pugsey and I are having a bet on the future value of property. Specifically, we are betting on whether the average house price will be higher in October 2010 than it is today. For the baseline we are using Halifax Feb 2010
http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/word/HPI/2...
with an Feb 2010 average of £166,857. When the October 2010 report comes out, if...
a). the average house price is equal to or more than £166,857, Noel pays £250 to Poppy Appeal
b). the average house price is less than £166,857, Pugsey pays £250 to Poppy Appeal.
I will update this thread on a monthly basis with the Halifax numbers.
Edited by NoelWatson on Thursday 18th March 10:38
As already posted under another thread, I think this bet is much more 50/50 than our last one - which people thought I was mad to take on but actually ended up being closer than most predicted. That said I'm happy to be on what I think will be the winning side (just) of the new bet.
G/L Noel.
G/L Noel.
NoelWatson said:
Following on from last year
http://www.pistonheads.co.uk/gassing/topic.asp?h=0...
Bit late starting this year, but format is very similar
Pugsey and I are having a bet on the future value of property. Specifically, we are betting on whether the average house price will be higher in October 2010 than it is today. For the baseline we are using Halifax Feb 2010
http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/word/HPI/2...
with an Feb 2010 average of £166,857. When the October 2010 report comes out, if...
a). the average house price is equal to or more than £166,857, Noel pays £250 to Poppy Appeal
b). the average house price is less than £166,857, Pugsey pays £250 to Poppy Appeal.
I will update this thread on a monthly basis with the Halifax numbers.
March 2010 +1.1% Average price £168,521http://www.pistonheads.co.uk/gassing/topic.asp?h=0...
Bit late starting this year, but format is very similar
Pugsey and I are having a bet on the future value of property. Specifically, we are betting on whether the average house price will be higher in October 2010 than it is today. For the baseline we are using Halifax Feb 2010
http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/word/HPI/2...
with an Feb 2010 average of £166,857. When the October 2010 report comes out, if...
a). the average house price is equal to or more than £166,857, Noel pays £250 to Poppy Appeal
b). the average house price is less than £166,857, Pugsey pays £250 to Poppy Appeal.
I will update this thread on a monthly basis with the Halifax numbers.
Edited by NoelWatson on Thursday 18th March 10:38
http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/word/HPI/2...
Thanks Noel.
Must admit, if nothing else, a thread like this brings me back to reality - or someone's version of it anyway. Where the hell can you actually get property at this price - and indeed presumably way below it as it's an average. Nowhere I'd go without a Hummer and four armed Special Forces guys with me that's for sure.
Must admit, if nothing else, a thread like this brings me back to reality - or someone's version of it anyway. Where the hell can you actually get property at this price - and indeed presumably way below it as it's an average. Nowhere I'd go without a Hummer and four armed Special Forces guys with me that's for sure.
NoelWatson said:
NoelWatson said:
Following on from last year
http://www.pistonheads.co.uk/gassing/topic.asp?h=0...
Bit late starting this year, but format is very similar
Pugsey and I are having a bet on the future value of property. Specifically, we are betting on whether the average house price will be higher in October 2010 than it is today. For the baseline we are using Halifax Feb 2010
http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/word/HPI/2...
with an Feb 2010 average of £166,857. When the October 2010 report comes out, if...
a). the average house price is equal to or more than £166,857, Noel pays £250 to Poppy Appeal
b). the average house price is less than £166,857, Pugsey pays £250 to Poppy Appeal.
I will update this thread on a monthly basis with the Halifax numbers.
March 2010 +1.1% Average price £168,521http://www.pistonheads.co.uk/gassing/topic.asp?h=0...
Bit late starting this year, but format is very similar
Pugsey and I are having a bet on the future value of property. Specifically, we are betting on whether the average house price will be higher in October 2010 than it is today. For the baseline we are using Halifax Feb 2010
http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/word/HPI/2...
with an Feb 2010 average of £166,857. When the October 2010 report comes out, if...
a). the average house price is equal to or more than £166,857, Noel pays £250 to Poppy Appeal
b). the average house price is less than £166,857, Pugsey pays £250 to Poppy Appeal.
I will update this thread on a monthly basis with the Halifax numbers.
Edited by NoelWatson on Thursday 18th March 10:38
http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/word/HPI/2...
http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/pdfs/resea...
shirt said:
Noel FTW!
Selling mine in summer so fingers crossed anyway!
Surely, you want Noel to lose this bet? He is offerring to pay up if house prices rise, therefore, he must believe they are going to fall, thus avoiding having to pay out?Selling mine in summer so fingers crossed anyway!
As a seller, I'm guessing you want to see prices rising...?
Pugsey said:
Thanks Noel.
Must admit, if nothing else, a thread like this brings me back to reality - or someone's version of it anyway. Where the hell can you actually get property at this price - and indeed presumably way below it as it's an average. Nowhere I'd go without a Hummer and four armed Special Forces guys with me that's for sure.
Go 50 miles from London and you'll find most properties are at this level, unless you hit popular spots lik eCambridge etc.Must admit, if nothing else, a thread like this brings me back to reality - or someone's version of it anyway. Where the hell can you actually get property at this price - and indeed presumably way below it as it's an average. Nowhere I'd go without a Hummer and four armed Special Forces guys with me that's for sure.
musclecarmad said:
when may mr earring, shaven head, tattood thicky realise this?
1. when he gets a letter telling him that his mortgage has increased. yes, but his thick skull may not read the letter or have it sink in. The main reason is when mr dense sees his direct debit increase and then he will point this out to sharon.
2. at this point mr thicky will realise that interest rates are going up and it will scare him and his bull terrier.
3. when he sees that his 'net pay' (well, he won't know it's called net pay, he'll call it something else) has actually fallen. Again he will tell sharon that he is being paid less.
4. when he sees that a pint in his local is up another 10% and that a packet of lambert and butlers is up another 30p. Even though very dense, a thicky still knows the price of a pint and a pack of cigs in his local.
5. when mr tattoo realises that it is £80 to fill up his Cavalier/Vectra is a lot of money and he is spending too much.
Even though we all know vat is rising, income tax is rising, ni is rising etc your average man on the street doesn't know this. They also think now is a good time to buy as rates are low.
I am a firm believer in the greater fool theory - people are bigger fools than we'd imagine.
I can't believe property hasn't fallen but then again QE and low interest rates have helped keep property high - eventually this will all crumble.
Let's see what the june emergency budget brings.
Don't think that it's just the lower end of society who have got themselves mortgaged up to the hilt and can only afford the repayments because of low interest rates.1. when he gets a letter telling him that his mortgage has increased. yes, but his thick skull may not read the letter or have it sink in. The main reason is when mr dense sees his direct debit increase and then he will point this out to sharon.
2. at this point mr thicky will realise that interest rates are going up and it will scare him and his bull terrier.
3. when he sees that his 'net pay' (well, he won't know it's called net pay, he'll call it something else) has actually fallen. Again he will tell sharon that he is being paid less.
4. when he sees that a pint in his local is up another 10% and that a packet of lambert and butlers is up another 30p. Even though very dense, a thicky still knows the price of a pint and a pack of cigs in his local.
5. when mr tattoo realises that it is £80 to fill up his Cavalier/Vectra is a lot of money and he is spending too much.
Even though we all know vat is rising, income tax is rising, ni is rising etc your average man on the street doesn't know this. They also think now is a good time to buy as rates are low.
I am a firm believer in the greater fool theory - people are bigger fools than we'd imagine.
I can't believe property hasn't fallen but then again QE and low interest rates have helped keep property high - eventually this will all crumble.
Let's see what the june emergency budget brings.
I also connot believe that house prices have not fallen, although many argue that they won't. I just don't see how it's sustainable to have average house prices up at 170k and average wages down at 25k.
Devil2575 said:
I just don't see how it's sustainable to have average house prices up at 170k and average wages down at 25k.
of the 25m housholds in the uk only 11.1m have mortgages, they owe 111k on average and the average wages are 23k. now factor in many low earners rent and mortgaged households will have on average over 1 income and it makes more sense, if far from desirable.http://www.creditaction.org.uk/debt-statistics/201...
NoelWatson said:
NoelWatson said:
NoelWatson said:
Following on from last year
http://www.pistonheads.co.uk/gassing/topic.asp?h=0...
Bit late starting this year, but format is very similar
Pugsey and I are having a bet on the future value of property. Specifically, we are betting on whether the average house price will be higher in October 2010 than it is today. For the baseline we are using Halifax Feb 2010
http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/word/HPI/2...
with an Feb 2010 average of £166,857. When the October 2010 report comes out, if...
a). the average house price is equal to or more than £166,857, Noel pays £250 to Poppy Appeal
b). the average house price is less than £166,857, Pugsey pays £250 to Poppy Appeal.
I will update this thread on a monthly basis with the Halifax numbers.
March 2010 +1.1% Average price £168,521http://www.pistonheads.co.uk/gassing/topic.asp?h=0...
Bit late starting this year, but format is very similar
Pugsey and I are having a bet on the future value of property. Specifically, we are betting on whether the average house price will be higher in October 2010 than it is today. For the baseline we are using Halifax Feb 2010
http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/word/HPI/2...
with an Feb 2010 average of £166,857. When the October 2010 report comes out, if...
a). the average house price is equal to or more than £166,857, Noel pays £250 to Poppy Appeal
b). the average house price is less than £166,857, Pugsey pays £250 to Poppy Appeal.
I will update this thread on a monthly basis with the Halifax numbers.
Edited by NoelWatson on Thursday 18th March 10:38
http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/word/HPI/2...
http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/pdfs/resea...
http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/pdfs/resea...
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