Serving officers - What is the effect of the CV crisis

[markyb_lcy]

I have read from some sources on here that the vast majority of crimes (not domestic violence) are down on their usual levels during this crisis.

I was wondering if any serving police officers or those close to serving officers could add any meat to the bone or provide any stats or observations to back that up?

Thanks.

[markyb_lcy]

Bigends said:

Crime down by 50% overall in my force area last week (compared to a normal week). Domestic related crime up slightly

Wow that's an even bigger effect than I'd expect. I sure do feel for those who have domestic problems to face, kind of an impossible situation for them

Thanks to you both so far for your observations.

[markyb_lcy]

focusxr5 said:

In our force, domestic violence offences are up (against both genders). For my department the biggest rise has been pursuits. With less cars on the road, the dealers and general scummers are standing out a lot more and so they are easier to target by us.

And with the emptier roads, do they seem more keen to give chase than they ordinarily would?

I can imagine they stick out a fair bit. I wonder if dealers are doing as much business as they normally would. Or maybe even a bit more, or a bit less. One of those things I guess it’s impossible to gauge.

[markyb_lcy]

focusxr5 said:

I wouldn't say more keen to give chase, as each individual pursuit is constantly risk assessed with that risk assessment changing from second to second. I would say the threshold between low/medium or medium/high risk moves slightly due to the lack of vehicle and pedestrian traffic but it's certainly not being treat as a free pass for us to push the limits and hoon after people dangerously.

Sorry, just to clarify regarding “giving chase”, I meant the alleged crims rather than the police. Bad turn of phrase to use on my part.

[markyb_lcy]

All along the PPE availability seems to be a logistics thing, not within the force as I can’t be that specific, but more generally.

Consistently we’ve been told by govt “we have it but can’t get it to where it needs to be”. Honestly I know it’s a big job but it’s not rocket science and by now we should be on top of it. Bad times.

[markyb_lcy]

Sa Calobra said:

No nothing to do with 'getting away with it'.

What is the government basing their modelling on? I hope it isn't using the same companies who carry out polls.

It'll vary area to area but from what I've seen driving about/on the works radio etc either people are starting to crack or it isn't working. If just 10% stayed out and about that's more transmissions and prolonging the lockdown for normal honest people.

Italy is now extending their lockdown, we should firm it up now and earlier to prevent it being as long as theirs will prove.

Edited by Sa Calobra on Saturday 11th April 17:16

It’s Imperial College, London who preside over the model being used afaik.

The model is based on 75% compliance to the measures. If only 10% didn’t comply, they would probably have to relax some of the restrictions to allow the disease to spread more.

Yes, I know that doesn’t make sense on the face of it, but the measures are about slowing the spread, not stopping it (which is pretty much impossible without wide testing and a vaccine).

[markyb_lcy]

XCP said:

I struggle with some of the logic and motivation around at the moment.

I go to work
I come home and stay there. I walk the dog each evening briefly.
I go back to work, not that I want to but needs must.
rinse and repeat...

Frankly the less I have to go out the better as far as I am concerned. Work scares me. I cannot understand why some people seem to want to push at the boundaries, whether they are law or guidelines.

I guess it's people who have no fear. Good luck to them. I'm a scared old fat bloke.

Give it a few months and the challenge will be getting people to go out rather than stay in

We are all a bit scared I think. Well, vast majority of us that don’t own hats made of tin foil.

Probably most of us are more afraid of the disease itself (and the effect on us of catching it) than we should be.

I’m even more afraid of the wider effect to society and the on-going effects of the crisis. If I get it and end up in hospital that will change rather quickly!

Needless to say, I’m taking all precautions I reasonably can (including following all guidance and staying within the law, of course).

Edited by markyb_lcy on Saturday 11th April 17:49

[markyb_lcy]

XCP said:

markyb_lcy said:

Give it a few months and the challenge will be getting people to go out rather than stay in

We are all a bit scared I think. Well, vast majority of us that don’t own hats made of tin foil.

Probably most of us are more afraid of the disease itself (and the effect on us of catching it) than we should be.

I’m even more afraid of the wider effect to society and the on-going effects of the crisis. If I get it and end up in hospital that will change rather quickly!

Needless to say, I’m taking all precautions I reasonably can (including following all guidance and staying within the law, of course).

Edited by markyb_lcy on Saturday 11th April 17:49

Trouble is I don't fancy my chances much If I am infected.
60 plus, overweight male.
I genuinely don't care about some of the issues some seem to find so important. I just want to live long enough to see my family and friends again.

Amen to that. Sending good wishes your way!

[markyb_lcy]

jshell said:

I would imagine that drugs supplies are running down now and that prices will be rising. Will there be a time when the junkies, tweeking like crazy, will be out for valuables and wandering around like some scene from Walking Dead? I have wondered if near the end of this that crime will go through the roof in terms of domestic and commercial intrusion but with greater consequences/propensity for violence...

The Guardian ran a story on this the other day...

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/12/co...

Some illicit drugs are in shorter supply and prices have gone up and/or purity down. More readily available “substitutes” (which are in some cases more dangerous such as heroin vs fentanyl) are being pedalled.

Recreational, casual users will probably pay more, do without, or have a drink instead. For addicts, there are big problems afoot around using more dangerous substances or through withdrawal because of lack of supply / higher prices.

[markyb_lcy]

jshell said:

markyb_lcy said:

jshell said:

I would imagine that drugs supplies are running down now and that prices will be rising. Will there be a time when the junkies, tweeking like crazy, will be out for valuables and wandering around like some scene from Walking Dead? I have wondered if near the end of this that crime will go through the roof in terms of domestic and commercial intrusion but with greater consequences/propensity for violence...

The Guardian ran a story on this the other day...

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/12/co...

Some illicit drugs are in shorter supply and prices have gone up and/or purity down. More readily available “substitutes” (which are in some cases more dangerous such as heroin vs fentanyl) are being pedalled.

Recreational, casual users will probably pay more, do without, or have a drink instead. For addicts, there are big problems afoot around using more dangerous substances or through withdrawal because of lack of supply / higher prices.

Thanks for that!

I have to say that my sympathy level for junkies runs at a very, very low %.

Although I don’t share that feeling, I can totally understand it. Problem is, it’s not just addicts themselves that will suffer, it’s their law abiding non drug taking families, society at large and our emergency services.