M2 used prices post Competition
Discussion
so after starting this thread i've been following all the replies, really interesting to see the different opinions on which way it'll go.
I started it because i've been tearing my hair out trying to decide what to buy in about 5 months time when i've saved up the money to finally put a decent deposit down, take out a bank loan, and spend £35k on a car.
One thing i've been struggling to get my head around is roughly how much the car will be worth 4 years from now when it's been paid off.
Its quite unbelievable that decent limited edition BMW AUC E92 M3's with 30k on the clock are being priced at £30k. £5k more buys an M4.
I understand the charms of the E92 M3 but for me personally, it seems mental to buy the E92 when for 5k more you could get a thoroughly modern M2 or 2014-2015 M4 with significantly lower running costs and tax.
If I do a simple calc, take a 2016 M2 with say, 10k miles on it, which you can currently get for around £35k - and take the depreciation on a 15%/year straight line basis, after 4 years the book value of the car would be £11k.
But then i think to myself...imagine the year is 2022, and you see a 6 year old BMW M2 on autotrader for £11k, with 50k miles on the clock.
Well....if a 6 year old E92 M3 is still fetching on average £20k, then there is no way the M2 in this example would be worth such a low amount.
In reality the depreciation is obviously not a straight line but a curve that starts to flatten, and i'm trying to understand at what point in time that curve starts to flatten..........its a shame i don't have historical market prices for the E92 M3 over a 6 year period, then you could plot a curve, do some simple differentiation calcs, and see exactly what point in time the curve begins to flatten...
does that data exist anywhere?
I started it because i've been tearing my hair out trying to decide what to buy in about 5 months time when i've saved up the money to finally put a decent deposit down, take out a bank loan, and spend £35k on a car.
One thing i've been struggling to get my head around is roughly how much the car will be worth 4 years from now when it's been paid off.
Its quite unbelievable that decent limited edition BMW AUC E92 M3's with 30k on the clock are being priced at £30k. £5k more buys an M4.
I understand the charms of the E92 M3 but for me personally, it seems mental to buy the E92 when for 5k more you could get a thoroughly modern M2 or 2014-2015 M4 with significantly lower running costs and tax.
If I do a simple calc, take a 2016 M2 with say, 10k miles on it, which you can currently get for around £35k - and take the depreciation on a 15%/year straight line basis, after 4 years the book value of the car would be £11k.
But then i think to myself...imagine the year is 2022, and you see a 6 year old BMW M2 on autotrader for £11k, with 50k miles on the clock.
Well....if a 6 year old E92 M3 is still fetching on average £20k, then there is no way the M2 in this example would be worth such a low amount.
In reality the depreciation is obviously not a straight line but a curve that starts to flatten, and i'm trying to understand at what point in time that curve starts to flatten..........its a shame i don't have historical market prices for the E92 M3 over a 6 year period, then you could plot a curve, do some simple differentiation calcs, and see exactly what point in time the curve begins to flatten...
does that data exist anywhere?
p1stonhead said:
Saving up deposit, combined with a bank loan OP? This car will mean a lot in such circumstances.
Get something more special than a BMW.
V8 Vantage or the like all the way
not quite there yet in life..... maybe in 4 years time i can happily start thinking about V8 and V10 cars.... Get something more special than a BMW.
V8 Vantage or the like all the way
i've also been considering the PCP route but it all looks a bit scary to me and feels like it suuurely must be a rip off. So i'm sticking with savings and cheap bank loans. I think looking at the figures even if the car does suddenly drop 4k in value i really wouldn't care.......i'd be thoroughly enjoying it for all that time.
The decision has been made. Must get an M2 this year!
Edited by wioifoiee on Thursday 3rd May 21:50
Edited by wioifoiee on Thursday 3rd May 22:00
nickfrog said:
Unless everyone realises that and everyone wants one. My guess is the cheapest ones will be £30k in November/ December and I am hoping value will start stabilising then, but only right after I bought mine. My only problem is that I can't stand that blue/green/turquoise/dirty pool colour but there are a lot of them, which often happens to a "launch" colour, however revolting (subjectively).
it is really annoying that there is such a poor choice of colours. I don't know why everyone is obsessed with Fridge white, the blue is nice but there are so many of them + it reminds me of the blue i had on my 1998 corsa 1.4 sport back in the day, not a memory i want to renew. Edited by nickfrog on Wednesday 9th May 16:01
its a shame they didn't offer it in imola red, or in fact, any of other colours available in the normal 2 series range.
GT3cs said:
So "shmee" has posted he has a €100,000 M2 Comp on the way . As I suggested earlier in the thread with the big option list , particularly of trick M performance parts there's going to lots of expensive cars out there . A £40k pre comp car should look good value .
So you reckon it will go the other way then, due to the price gap to the M2 CP, values of the stock M2 will hold and now is the time to buy instead of waiting a year? GT3cs said:
I’m thinking the biggest drop is what’s happened already in the last 6months . I think the depreciation curve will slow now , particularly as the new pre comp stock drys up at the dealers .
I’ve come from a long history of Porsche and it still feels like I stole the car off the dealer for £42k . I can’t recall any previous purchase where I would happily of paid another £4/ £5k without a worry .
But saying that who the hell knows what will happen ! But it can’t hurt having used 2018 cars out there at the end off year for sale at £70k+ that actually still weigh the same if not a little more than the pre comp cars .
yeh but the cars are not £70k are they? I’ve come from a long history of Porsche and it still feels like I stole the car off the dealer for £42k . I can’t recall any previous purchase where I would happily of paid another £4/ £5k without a worry .
But saying that who the hell knows what will happen ! But it can’t hurt having used 2018 cars out there at the end off year for sale at £70k+ that actually still weigh the same if not a little more than the pre comp cars .
the schmee example has had a ton of extras and mods put on it and is a bit of a one off - i doubt every M2 competition pack buyer will whack all that on?
evo says the actual standard M2 comp is £47260.
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