Is there a Rolex bubble?

[So]

In my nearest city there are, I would think, approaching 20 shops that will sell you a Rolex. Only one AD, but a lot selling used and new, unworn stock. It seems to be the same in most cities I've been to.

And Rolex is still making them.

And prices keep rising.

Will there come a point where the market is saturated and prices start to fall?

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DH01 said:

No, certainly not for sports and specialist models. Year on year, decade on decade the prices just slowly rise as does demand. Every so often there is a stagnant period but thats about as far as it goes.
As far as I'm aware there has never been a "crash" in either new or secondhand Rolex prices.

Edited by DH01 on Friday 9th June 11:19

sp.

Edited by DH01 on Friday 9th June 11:20

Isn't that prediction like trying to drive by looking in the rear view mirror?

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DH01 said:

Any sort of future prediction is just guessing. History shows that Rolex have been at the top of their game for a very long time and there are no indications that will change.
The secondhand market suffers slightly from changes in perception/fashion every so often but prices have always remained steady or increased.
The market is big enough to accommodate the volume, new or S/H.
For any other answer you'll need to trot along to Mystic Meg and cross her palm with silver !

I recall when I was in my mid 20s, which would have been early 90s, and wanting a quality watch. A friend of mine worked for Rolex and suggested strongly that I buy one - he was able to get me a deal on one. But I really didn't want one because Rolexes were the preserve of middle-aged men and upwards!

I bought a TAG, which gave me great pleasure for a number of years but it's worth 1/10th of the Rolex I was encouraged to buy.

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LaurasOtherHalf said:

But as a luxury good that provides enjoyment at little to no cost over a number of years, with the chance to increase in value-well, its nicer than staring at digits on an annual statement (IMHO).

That's my take on things. I have no interest in owning watches that I don't want to wear. In fact I have trashed the value of a few "investments" by taking off the stickers and wearing them. But I see Rolex sports models as nice watches that have little or no cost of ownership.

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Caruso said:

There are a couple of 2ndhand Rolex dealers near where I work and my observation from the prices is that most of the range depreciates, and the really old stuff is worth relatively little. I think this means the bubble is unlikely to burst although particular models may fall out of favour over time. Of course no company lasts forever but I think it will be a gradual decline or part of a wider collapse in luxury goods markets.

Are you referring to non-sports models depreciating?

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GG89 said:

Very fortunate I guess, after a lengthy discussion with the manager and trying on a few different watches he told me he has 1 coming in next week if I was interested but to tell him asap as it would go very quickly. Went for lunch to have a think about it and returned and paid in full.

Edited by GG89 on Sunday 11th June 16:48

Edited by GG89 on Sunday 11th June 16:50

How is the timekeeping?

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GG89 said:

Picking up on Wednesday.

Known issue?

Yes of course, it's a Rolex;)

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dom9 said:

There's a 2nd hand Coke GMTII in Chisholm Hunter's window in Kingston up for £9k... think I paid around £2,800 5yrs back (although it went straight to Rolex for a service, so ~£3,250 total) for mine.

To be fair though, £9k sounds toppy...

Recent price increases and the introduction of the (less attractive?) ceramics seems to have kept prices going in one direction. Where will it end? Does it have to end?

The used Rolex stock at CH does always look toppy to me.

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Countdown said:

Caruso said:

Yipper said:

Rolex are like Apple and Porsche -- a complete mystery why they are so popular.

Apple have made a habit not of doing something 1st, but being the 1st to do it well. Porsche also do things very well. It's the same with Rolex, it's about execution not innovation. They've all built a brand on that.

What does a Rolex do better than other watches?

Appreciate.

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LaurasOtherHalf said:

trowelhead said:

LaurasOtherHalf said:

If I'm going to keep my Daytona I think I'm going to put it on a rubber oysterfelx copy with an after market deployment.

Brilliant idea, might do the same for a change. Any idea where to pick one up?

Plenty of options on eBay, not sure on how durable they would be (you wouldn't want it dropping off your wrist for instance) however I've currently put up the bulk of my collection for liquidation so I never got to try it. I feel the time is right.

Which ones are you selling and why do you feel the time is right?

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LaurasOtherHalf said:

Not sure where we stand on that on PH as posts alluding to be adverts are banned, however I’ve posted about which watches I’ve got so not difficult to find out.

I will definitely be keeping 3, the ones that hold sentimental value and one which is just my plain favourite.

As for the time to sell? Look at other investor markets-sales are heavily down this summer across the board however the bubble market is in full swing.

Rare whiskies, watches, wines and cars are being pounced on by the general public who armed with only a little knowledge have flooded into the market-it’s the very epitome of a tulip market.

I’m not saying I’m right by any stretch of the imagination but it feels like the right time for me. I aim to liquidate the collection by Christmas this year. I hasten to add that a friend and fellow collector is still investing heavily and disagrees with my timing as he believes Brexit will push the rise to continue, you pays your money and takes your chances...

If I’m wrong and prices continue to rise I don’t feel I can complain, as nice as ceramic Daytonas, BLNRs, Pepsis etc etc are they aren’t my favourites and flipping them has been fun.

Once it’s all sorted, I do plan to write a thread detailing the process.

Fair enough. I have wondered about moving on some things that have increased in value and which are of little interest to me.

How do you plan to dispose? Chrono 24?

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LaurasOtherHalf said:

I have a trusted dealer (ex-AD) who is a mate and I’ve agreed a deal that will suit us both. He also advertises on C24

I am thinking C24. My eBay experience of selling watches has not been a happy one.

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jonny996 said:

I'm looking for a used one for my wife (1969 or 1995 year), I see you mention chrono24, I have been looking there & watchfinder. Are there any other sites worth looking at?

Fleabay? Probably better for buyers than sellers. But I would want to see the item in the flesh.