Brexit Referendum - top two choices

[silentbrown]

My guess is that *if* another referendum is needed it will have three choices,, something like this

• May's deal
• No deal
• Remain

The first choice to get 50% of votes cast wins. If no option gets 50%, then lowest scoring choice is eliminated, and those votes are reallocated according to the second choice. So if you vote Remain then No Deal, but Remain scores lowest in the first round, your vote gets reassigned to "No Deal".

The PH poll won't calculate this automatically so I'll check in and update a "result" as we go along, if anyone can be arsed to get out of bed and vote

---

15:30 After 31 votes, Remain 36%, No Deal 46%, May 19%. May eliminated, giving No Deal 59% to Remain 42%. No Deal Winning
16:20 After 66 votes, Remain 30%, No Deal 48%, May 22%. May eliminated, giving No Deal 62% to Remain 38%. No Deal Winning
18:24 After 83 votes, Remain 28%, No Deal 52%, May 20%. No Deal wins outright
21:30 After 133 votes, Remain 28%, No Deal 50%, May 22%. May eliminated, giving No Deal 64% to Remain 36%. No Deal Winning
08:30 After 177 votes, Remain 30%, No Deal 48%, May 22%. May eliminated, giving No Deal 63% to Remain 37%. No Deal Winning
13:45 After 244 votes, Remain 34%, No Deal 46%, May 21%. May eliminated, giving No Deal 61% to Remain 40%. No Deal Winning

Edited by silentbrown on Wednesday 5th December 14:43

[silentbrown]

amusingduck said:

Your proposed 2nd ref question doesn't meet the guidelines IMO.

Please suggest one that does. I hadn't actually specified the question, just the answers!

[silentbrown]

Leicester Loyal said:

But by having 3 choices, it's splitting up votes.

It should be leave with no deal or leave with May's deal, we've already chosen to leave.

Assuming everyone who votes remain as first choice would instead then vote for their second, we can see if that would make a difference to the outcome.

[silentbrown]

B'stard Child said:

Genuine question on 1st and second choice voting (I know not normal for me)

But if you have to put a 1 and a 2 by the choices is just putting a 1 against one option (and not specifying a second choice at all) a spoiled ballot?

I'd expect your vote would be counted in the first round, but if your choice was then eliminated, the vote wouldn't be transferred.

Sometimes where voting like this is used there's a "None of the above" option, which can never be eliminated, regardless of where it comes. So if you would only countenance No Deal, you'd put that as #1 and "None of the above" as #2. "None of the above" can actually win a vote.

[silentbrown]

Biker 1 said:

British elections are almost always a yes or no type voting choice - are there other instances of 2nd/3rd choice recounts as proposed by some here?

Some examples here.
https://fullfact.org/news/scottish-independence-ar...

The "transferable vote" system basically combines the a three-choice referendum and a subsequent "run-off" between the two top preferences. It avoids the need for multiple votes and easily scales to any number of choices.

[silentbrown]

Russian Troll Bot said:

What facts (not opinions, forecasts or predictions) are we in possession of now that we weren't 2 years ago?

The Withdrawal Agreement, and all it entails.

That, and it's clear that our negotiating position and abilities have been weak, while the EU's position has been pretty robust. So any dramatically "better deal" is just wishful thinking.

[silentbrown]

Just updated the "results" so far. No Deal still convincingly on top!

However. based on the current votes, if it was a binary question...

57% would prefer No Deal over Mays deal (44%)
61% would prefer No Deal over Remain (39%)
but 55% would prefer Remain over May's deal(45%)

[silentbrown]

The Dangerous Elk said:

..a load of southern metropolitan middle class remainers with a "union business" day off from their government paid job do not make the decisions in the Uk

Actually, they do. Most people call them "MPs".

[silentbrown]

olimain said:

I thought I'd read the police had it at 250k

"The Metropolitan Police said it was not able to estimate the size of the crowd."

[silentbrown]

saaby93 said:

A choice voting system is good idea because people can think well I didnt get my first choice but at least I got my second

At least I got my second choice in the first referendum

The way this works is that the least popular first choice gets eliminated - and that's May's deal, and then those votes are transferred to the specifed second choice.

So, "first round" counts would be
No Deal : 45%
Remain: 33%
May : 21%

After May's deal is eliminated we'd get...
No Deal : 60%
Remain: 39%

Rounding errors, so nothing adds up to 100...

[silentbrown]

Well, I should have copyrighted the question, because YouGov have asked pretty much the exact same thing,,,

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-repo...

Their results: [b]Remain 46%,[b] No Deal 27%, May Deal 27%

Results here, on our unscientific, self-selected, male-dominated forum: No Deal 44%, Remain 34%, Mays Deal 21%,

[silentbrown]

saaby93 said:

In PH it's 65:34 in favour of Brexit

...or, it's PH 55:45% in favour of remaining in the CU (but see below...)

V8LM said:

<snip>
Transferable vote 1:

No/May + No/Stay + May/No + May/Stay = 66

Not sure how you think "transferable votes" work if votes for "May 1st, Stay 2nd" get transferred to "No Deal".

Anyhow, the "rule" for the voting was in the original post. Reinterpreting the votes based on different rules after the vote isn't an option. But "No Deal" wins regardless...

[silentbrown]

V8LM said:

May/Stay has the lowest votes, so in this mechanism, their first choice goes to the others who have May as their first choice - May/No.

Is this just something you've made up? STV (which I described) is the typical way of handling this kind of multiple-choice thing. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Single_transferable_...

[silentbrown]

saaby93 said:

Anyone going to add more votes to this?

Only one vote allowed

You think I should re-run it based on today's events?

[silentbrown]

The Dangerous Elk said:

If leave ever loose this be warned, from day one I will cry scream and demand another vote as well as work hard to screw it all up by undermining it's validity.

Good for you. Welcome to our democracy!

"lose", BTW. Your are Individual #1 AICMFP.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/6937823...

[silentbrown]

micky metro said:

Surely another "peoples vote" on brexit that had "remain" in the eu and "any two other options" would guarantee a remain win by splitting the leave vote. As good as vote rigging.

FFS. "Preferential Voting". Or are the electorate who perfectly understood every last implication of the referendum vote incapable of understanding this?

[silentbrown]

Quick update, as the recent shenanigans have brought in more voters:

On first Preference votes, No Deal 42%, Remain 36%, May's deal 21%
After transfer of eliminated loser's votes, we get No Deal 57%, Remain 42%.

No deal still ahead, but gap has closed a bit. If it was a binary vote, we'd see

* No Deal 57% would beat Remain 42%
* No Deal 54% would beat Mays Deal 45%
* Remain 55% would beat Mays Deal 44%