PH Psephologists
Discussion
A geeky thread but I know there are some here even more nerdy than me about this stuff, so I thought I would start a thread where we can share our predictions, markers and bellwethers without getting sidetracked by trivia like healthcare, the economy, a complete lack of trust in politics and our place in the world.
To start it off, I will be glued to the TV at about 11pm for the Sunderland South result. It will almost certainly be Labour of course but the swing will be the interesting thing.
The Tories need to win 20 more seats than they did in 2017 to get the 326 needed for a majority. Their strategy seems to have been to grab leave voting seats from Labour so I think Sunderland is a pretty good predictor of what is to come.
According to this a swing of 2.06% would get them the top 20 Labour target seats, so all else being equal be enough to get them in.
However it's not that simple. A couple of seats in there like Stroud and Kensington are not Leave strongholds, so wouldn't automatically turn blue if the Tories gain 2.06% in Sunderland. Scrolling further down and discounting the likes of Battersea something like a 3% swing would be more convincing, taking them as far as Wrexham.
Then it gets more complicated again when you factor in that this strategy will likely cost the Tories seats in remain areas. If we can expect the Lib Dems to be the main beneficiaries of this their list suggests they would need quite a big swing, but 5% would see them get 6 seats.
Going back to the Tory target list and adding another 6 Labour leave seats takes them down to Great Grimsby on a 3.61% swing. This would only take them 1 seat above 325.
This should be enough to get them over the line, but only just. If Labour were to claw back Hastings or Southampton Itchen, as well they might according to their target list then we're back in hung parliament territory.
At 4% they would pick up another 3 seats, down to Rother Valley but just missing Cardiff North. This should give them a majority of 1. The good news after that is quite a tight grouping in the 4-5% range. A 5% swing would put them 10 seats up, so beating Cameron's 330 seats in 2015. 6% would net them another 11 seats, virtually guaranteeing a solid majority.
So, my armchair psephology for just over 24 hours time is that we need a 5% swing from Labour to Tory in Sunderland South in order to get a slim majority for the Tories, and 6% for a solid Conservative government.
Trash it, improve it or tell me completely different ones.
To start it off, I will be glued to the TV at about 11pm for the Sunderland South result. It will almost certainly be Labour of course but the swing will be the interesting thing.
The Tories need to win 20 more seats than they did in 2017 to get the 326 needed for a majority. Their strategy seems to have been to grab leave voting seats from Labour so I think Sunderland is a pretty good predictor of what is to come.
According to this a swing of 2.06% would get them the top 20 Labour target seats, so all else being equal be enough to get them in.
However it's not that simple. A couple of seats in there like Stroud and Kensington are not Leave strongholds, so wouldn't automatically turn blue if the Tories gain 2.06% in Sunderland. Scrolling further down and discounting the likes of Battersea something like a 3% swing would be more convincing, taking them as far as Wrexham.
Then it gets more complicated again when you factor in that this strategy will likely cost the Tories seats in remain areas. If we can expect the Lib Dems to be the main beneficiaries of this their list suggests they would need quite a big swing, but 5% would see them get 6 seats.
Going back to the Tory target list and adding another 6 Labour leave seats takes them down to Great Grimsby on a 3.61% swing. This would only take them 1 seat above 325.
This should be enough to get them over the line, but only just. If Labour were to claw back Hastings or Southampton Itchen, as well they might according to their target list then we're back in hung parliament territory.
At 4% they would pick up another 3 seats, down to Rother Valley but just missing Cardiff North. This should give them a majority of 1. The good news after that is quite a tight grouping in the 4-5% range. A 5% swing would put them 10 seats up, so beating Cameron's 330 seats in 2015. 6% would net them another 11 seats, virtually guaranteeing a solid majority.
So, my armchair psephology for just over 24 hours time is that we need a 5% swing from Labour to Tory in Sunderland South in order to get a slim majority for the Tories, and 6% for a solid Conservative government.
Trash it, improve it or tell me completely different ones.
biggbn said:
I wonder if Scotland will make the difference it did last time. Under Ruth Davidson the Scottish Toryies did some damage up here but support has dwindled since then?
I heard the Tories have had a bit of a boost there from the unionist/not-another-referendum vote, and from Ruth Davidson's threat to go skinny dipping in Loch Ness but I must admit I have discounted Scotland from my peterperkins said:
I'm one of the sado's who looked at this thread because I had no idea what a Psephologists is/was.
Not sure i'm any the wiser.
psephologyNot sure i'm any the wiser.
/sɛˈfɒlədʒi,sɪˈfɒlədʒi/
noun
the statistical study of elections and trends in voting.
Get into inferring the composition of parliament from the swing in Wrexham before calling yourself a saddo!
hutchst said:
I have no idea what this thread's about, but the tories got 317 last time, so they only need to get 9 more to reach 326, not 20. Unless I'm more senile than I thought.
Nope I'm the senile one. I meant to say they need to take about 20 Labour leave seats to secure a majority allowing for the defections, and Labour remain seats. steveatesh said:
Living in the constituency I’m following the result with interest, although expect a labour hold with a large majority still. Had it just been Tory vs Labour I think there could be a big shock based on the local feeling ps being expressed on social media and the swing away from the long held labour council last local elections (they lost 10 seats IIRC) .
I personally voted tactically, the Tory candidate lives in London and probably doesn’t even know where this place is. Not a good start so I’ve guessed the best chance of a change of local MP here would be the Brexit party.
My own personal opinion is that because it is a 3 horse race here the leave vote will split and let Labour in with a large majority.
So it won’t quite be the bell weather result you could otherwise see.
And you were dead right. If all BP voters had voted Tory they would have won it. Which would have been possibly more surprising than Blyth. I personally voted tactically, the Tory candidate lives in London and probably doesn’t even know where this place is. Not a good start so I’ve guessed the best chance of a change of local MP here would be the Brexit party.
My own personal opinion is that because it is a 3 horse race here the leave vote will split and let Labour in with a large majority.
So it won’t quite be the bell weather result you could otherwise see.
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