Where to go for best odds on US election?

[Partyvan]

Hi all,

I want to stick some money on the election. I can see odds at the bookies on various sites, but I've read about bet exchanges as a potential source of lower comission / better odds? Are they worthwhile?

Advice welcome

Thanks

[Partyvan]

BlackLabel said:

Betfair exchange - good odds, great liquidity so can get out of your position quickly if you want to or lock in a profit etc, and extremely well established too so your money is ring-fenced/safe (assuming you pick the winner

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/mar...

Thankyou very much!

Previous said:

....come on...you have to tell us who you're backing after a post like that !

Well, a little history first:

I believe strongly in reticence for people to admit they are voting right wing. Brexit went against the polls, just like the Boris landslide did. I won thousands on both. Trump is now exceptionally difficult for people to admit they will vote for. So I expect the polls are significantly wrong on Trump. He won in 2016 with a 4% defecit in the polls. He's now got an 8% defecit in the polls but is a much, much more "toxic" brand now. I think he might win if the defecit drops just a touch.

If the poll defecit is over 6% I'll bet Biden. If it's under 6% I'll bet on Trump.

[Partyvan]

Joey Deacon said:

I agree with you, I personally think Trump is going to win. As you say, people don't want to admit they are voting right wing, especially in these woke times. The woke people will also tend to be the most vocal, especially when it comes to social media and tend to try and shame anyone who is right wing.

It is easy to believe that the left, woke voters are in the majority as they are so vocal, but the right wing voters will outnumber them when it actually comes down to voting.

The silent majority.

Murph7355 said:

Wouldn't his brand being increasingly toxic suggest that more people might be less inclined to say they'd vote for him...so a larger deficit could still see him in power? And make the odds more fruity?

Exactly.

[Partyvan]

Electro1980 said:

Trump however has shown again and again he is an awful person.

That's subjective though.

He was widely known before being elected to be racist, misogynist, anti-LGBT, pro-Israel and generally scornful of minorities, and that got him elected... because that's what a lot of people believe in themselves.

Voting results show the majority of people in the US and UK are like that. Even Brexit voting was run along correlating lines of those sorts of beliefs (see Ashcroft polls)

[Partyvan]

I ended up putting £1000 on Biden to return £1625.

[Partyvan]

Murph7355 said:

Will be interesting to see what the outcome is (betting a grand to make 600 quid seems a bit risky to me!).

It does, but the reason I did it is so that I either get the joy of a Trump re-election, or £600 to spend on a treat.

[Partyvan]

Argleton said:

ooft, you'll never see that money again. Mark my words.

I won't be that bothered if you're right! £1k is a small price to pay for Trump's effect on the political left.

My feeling at the minute is that Biden will win by a margin of around 2-5%

[Partyvan]

I think in fairness yes our politics are dominated by the right-of-centre, but that is more down to a failure of the Labour party than the success of the Tories. Labour has an obsession with politics that are deeply unpopular like anti-Zionism, multiculturalism, pro-immigration, feminism, socialism, trade unionism etc. It's all very unpalatable to pretty much anyone outside of London, as proven in the last election.

As for the rest of society, the sphere of celebrities, corporate image and media is very left wing dominated. All very "diversity", "equality", politically correct and pro-left wing. I think this is what people refer to about "woke" society. How legitimate views and ideas are silenced, shut down and no-platformed if they are not singing off the leftie hymn sheet. It's for this reason I like Trump, he is the antithesis to all of this PC nonsense. I hope he wins, but I don't believe he will.

[Partyvan]

Lord Marylebone said:

I'm wondering why there is seemingly a lack of any younger presidential candidates at the moment?

I agree. A younger, characterful, more centrist candidate would have an open goal at this election.

[Partyvan]

Lord Marylebone said:

What changes have you personally had to make in your life to be more politically correct?

I can't speak for BlackRabbit but a prime example in the news today is the security guard from Manchester Arena did not challenge the suicide bomber for fear of being labelled racist. His challenge may have saved dozens of lives.

[Partyvan]

...another example being various police forces not challenging Asian grooming gangs, again for fear of being labelled racist.

Again, the rape of thousands of our children being a heavy price to pay for political correctness.

[Partyvan]

Suddenly I'm feeling uneasy about the grand I've put on Biden!

[Partyvan]

I've cashed out of my Biden bet because the polls have tightened up in the swing states. I am confident Trump will be winning half of them so he is now definitely in with a chance of winning overall.

I'm out!

[Partyvan]

Penelope Stopit said:

What was the cash out bet - 540 Trump @ 15/8 ???

I went in at £1k with £1600 return

Cashed out at £1k just now

[Partyvan]

clive_candy said:

Four years ago, I'd had a couple of very successful bets on outlier events and thought I'd play safe for the next one.

The odds weren't anything to write home about but Clinton was a shoo-in and it was going to be easy money...

Exactly.

I think Trump is close enough to cause an upset

[Partyvan]

Penelope Stopit said:

Youv'e lost me there

I'm a gambler

Biden is on the drift isn't he ? Biden odds to win are better odds than when you backed him

There is no cash out on Biden

How did you cash out on a drifter ?

If Biden odds had tightened you could have cashed out on him

Surely you're left holding the baby unless you backed Trump

I must be missing something

I initially thought Biden was almost sure to win so I put £1k down

The most recent polls show the gap is closing to the point where I believe (not the bookies) that Trump has a good chance of winning. The bookies odds hadn't changed AFAIK, so I cashed out.

No point gambling £1k on a £600 return, on something I don't think is a dead cert!

[Partyvan]

AFAIK the small print on bets was "first to 270 on the electoral college"

Not "winner after legal challenges"