Coronavirus : Early Days
Discussion
This is an exercise, largely, for my benefit but I suspect of interest (maybe) to others on how the coronavirus was reported on early in 2020.
I say "for my benefit" as, back in the day, I was clearly aware that some sort of illness had emerged from China that was potentially rather nasty. However, I kept my head down hoping for the best. I avoided the MSM as much as I could, and kept working throughout (Covid secure office, and the construction industry kept rolling). As such, I had no idea at the time what was being reported WRT the virus; what was credible, what was tripe, what was concerning.
Anyway. Very early on, PH picked up on the emergence of the virus and a thread was started by PH'er "JPJPJP" (subsequently changed to "anonymous-user") titled 'Coronavirus - Is this the killer flu that will wipe us out?'.
What I have done is picked out from that first thread, and subsequent ones, are reports from various sources that "paint a picture" of how the virus i) spread and ii) was reported. I've, rightly or wrongly, concentrated on reports that were focused on Europe but also touched on reports on the origin of the virus. I'll post the original web link to a given report, and post what I think are interesting snippets from the same article.
I will also add posts from PH'ers from the time that I think are either relevant or funny, but bearing in mind that in early March 2020 the thread was running at some 25 pages per day, I can't capture all.
OK?
As Dylan Thomas once wrote : To begin at the beginnng
3rd January 2020
https://news.sky.com/story/dozens-in-hospital-afte...
I say "for my benefit" as, back in the day, I was clearly aware that some sort of illness had emerged from China that was potentially rather nasty. However, I kept my head down hoping for the best. I avoided the MSM as much as I could, and kept working throughout (Covid secure office, and the construction industry kept rolling). As such, I had no idea at the time what was being reported WRT the virus; what was credible, what was tripe, what was concerning.
Anyway. Very early on, PH picked up on the emergence of the virus and a thread was started by PH'er "JPJPJP" (subsequently changed to "anonymous-user") titled 'Coronavirus - Is this the killer flu that will wipe us out?'.
What I have done is picked out from that first thread, and subsequent ones, are reports from various sources that "paint a picture" of how the virus i) spread and ii) was reported. I've, rightly or wrongly, concentrated on reports that were focused on Europe but also touched on reports on the origin of the virus. I'll post the original web link to a given report, and post what I think are interesting snippets from the same article.
I will also add posts from PH'ers from the time that I think are either relevant or funny, but bearing in mind that in early March 2020 the thread was running at some 25 pages per day, I can't capture all.
OK?
As Dylan Thomas once wrote : To begin at the beginnng
3rd January 2020
https://news.sky.com/story/dozens-in-hospital-afte...
snippet said:
Forty-four people have been infected with a mystery illness possibly connected to a food market in central China.
Eleven of those people are in a serious condition, according to the Wuhan city health commission, and more than 100 others are reportedly under medical observation.
Earlier in the week, there had been 27 cases, seven of them critical.
The South China Morning Post reported that two of those in hospital with symptoms of the mystery illness are in Hong Kong, having returned from Wuhan within the past two weeks.
They are both female, aged 12 and 41, and came to hospital with fever and pneumonia-like symptoms.
Wuhan city health commission said fever is the illness's main symptom but shortness of breath and lung damage have been reported in a "small number" of cases.
It said some of the patients are stallholders of the city's Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, but did not go into detail on the other patients
Eleven of those people are in a serious condition, according to the Wuhan city health commission, and more than 100 others are reportedly under medical observation.
Earlier in the week, there had been 27 cases, seven of them critical.
The South China Morning Post reported that two of those in hospital with symptoms of the mystery illness are in Hong Kong, having returned from Wuhan within the past two weeks.
They are both female, aged 12 and 41, and came to hospital with fever and pneumonia-like symptoms.
Wuhan city health commission said fever is the illness's main symptom but shortness of breath and lung damage have been reported in a "small number" of cases.
It said some of the patients are stallholders of the city's Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, but did not go into detail on the other patients
Clearly, between the 3rd and 19th January 2020 information on the virus was a bit sparse as little was posted here about it. I should note that the date I'll attribute to each link is the date it was posted on PH.
20th January 2020
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-511710...
The World Health Organisation convenes an Emergency Committee
22nd January 2020
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/21/health/wuhan-co...
and
https://twitter.com/ConflictsW/status/122006975800...
Roads in Wuhan blocked by police as city is quarantined
https://summit.news/2020/01/22/professor-warns-new...
20th January 2020
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-511710...
Report said:
The number of people infected with a new virus in China tripled over the weekend, with the outbreak spreading from Wuhan to other major cities.
https://twitter.com/DrTedros/status/12193217263513...The World Health Organisation convenes an Emergency Committee
22nd January 2020
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/21/health/wuhan-co...
and
https://twitter.com/ConflictsW/status/122006975800...
Roads in Wuhan blocked by police as city is quarantined
https://summit.news/2020/01/22/professor-warns-new...
Report said:
A professor has warned that the new deadly coronavirus which originated in China has the same kill rate as the Spanish flu, which claimed the lives of 20-50 million people in 1918.
Fears of widespread contagion are growing after hundreds of cases were confirmed and 17 people died. The virus originated in an animal market in Wuhan, China and has now spread to numerous other countries, including the United States.
The virus has a 2% death rate, compared to 0.1% for the regular flu. For every 50 people who are infected, one will statistically die.
“This [2019-nCoV’s death rate] could be 2%, similar to Spanish flu,” said Professor Neil Ferguson from Imperial College London.
Fears of widespread contagion are growing after hundreds of cases were confirmed and 17 people died. The virus originated in an animal market in Wuhan, China and has now spread to numerous other countries, including the United States.
The virus has a 2% death rate, compared to 0.1% for the regular flu. For every 50 people who are infected, one will statistically die.
“This [2019-nCoV’s death rate] could be 2%, similar to Spanish flu,” said Professor Neil Ferguson from Imperial College London.
isaldiri said:
cherryowen said:
Clearly, between the 3rd and 19th January 2020 information on the virus was a bit sparse as little was posted here about it. I should note that the date I'll attribute to each link is the date it was posted on PH.
20th January 2020
If I could make a suggestion. might be worth adding this.... one of the things thatprobably hasn't aged very well.....20th January 2020
14th Jan by the WHO
https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1217043229427761152
https://news.sky.com/story/china-confirms-deadly-w...
Report said:
Chinese authorities have confirmed a deadly virus that has infected more than 200 people in four countries can be transmitted via human-to-human contact.
Didn't age well at all.23rd January 2020
https://news.sky.com/story/china-virus-is-mutating...
https://twitter.com/cbctom/status/1220413211599613...
https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-...
https://news.sky.com/story/china-virus-is-mutating...
Report said:
The new virus that has killed 17 people in China is mutating and could spread further, health officials have warned, as Britain announced measures to monitor flights arriving from the country.
The action comes as China state media reports the number of coronavirus cases in Hubei province has risen to 444, with 17 people now confirmed dead.
Overall 473 cases of coronavirus were confirmed by Chinese authorities, as millions of people prepare to travel domestically and abroad for the country's lunar new year celebrations starting this week.
The action comes as China state media reports the number of coronavirus cases in Hubei province has risen to 444, with 17 people now confirmed dead.
Overall 473 cases of coronavirus were confirmed by Chinese authorities, as millions of people prepare to travel domestically and abroad for the country's lunar new year celebrations starting this week.
https://twitter.com/cbctom/status/1220413211599613...
Tweet said:
WHO reports 584 cases, 575 of which are in China
https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-...
Report said:
Videos appear to show Wuhan coronavirus patients being transported in boxes and plastic tubes to stop the deadly disease from spreading further
24th January 2020
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-512300...
25th January 2020
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51249717
https://twitter.com/StephenMcDonell/status/1221058...
BBC China correspondent
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-512300...
Report said:
China has widened its travel restrictions in Hubei province - the centre of the coronavirus outbreak - as the death toll climbed to 26.
The restrictions will affect at least 20 million people across 10 cities, including the capital, Wuhan, where the virus emerged.
The restrictions will affect at least 20 million people across 10 cities, including the capital, Wuhan, where the virus emerged.
25th January 2020
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51249717
Report said:
Tests in the UK on 31 people for the new strain of coronavirus have come back negative, the government has said.
"There are currently no confirmed cases in the UK or of UK citizens abroad, and the risk to the public is low," the Department of Health said.
"There are currently no confirmed cases in the UK or of UK citizens abroad, and the risk to the public is low," the Department of Health said.
https://twitter.com/StephenMcDonell/status/1221058...
BBC China correspondent
Tweet said:
Just entered Hubei Province where the #coronarvirus outbreak started. virtually nobody on the streets here. At the checkpoint the police said we can go in but they won’t let us back out. It looks like the entire province of Hubei, population 30 million, to be locked down.#China
My bold; first mention of the phrase in the MSM?25th January 2020
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7929657/N...
26th January 2020
https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/26/containing-new...
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7929657/N...
Report said:
A nurse wearing a protective suit and face mask treating the sick in Wuhan has claimed that 90,000 people have already been infected by the coronavirus in China – far more than the figure of just 1,975 issued by government officials.
Her warning from the heart of the outbreak emerged as the Chinese government faced accusations of censoring criticism of its handling of the disease in order to play down the crisis.
The outbreak of the new virus originated in China, where it has infected more than 1,970 people and killed 56, and has spread worldwide.
My bold, because the next dayHer warning from the heart of the outbreak emerged as the Chinese government faced accusations of censoring criticism of its handling of the disease in order to play down the crisis.
The outbreak of the new virus originated in China, where it has infected more than 1,970 people and killed 56, and has spread worldwide.
26th January 2020
https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/26/containing-new...
Report said:
“Despite the enormous and admirable efforts in China and around the world, we need to plan for the possibility containment of this epidemic isn’t possible,” said Neil Ferguson, an infectious diseases epidemiology at Imperial College London who has issued a series of modeling studies on the outbreak.
There may be as many as 100,000 cases already in China, Ferguson told The Guardian newspaper on Sunday, adding the model suggests the number could be between 30,000 and 200,000 cases. “Almost certainly many tens of thousands of people are infected,” he told the British newspaper.
Includes links to Imperial College reports relevant at the above date https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-d...There may be as many as 100,000 cases already in China, Ferguson told The Guardian newspaper on Sunday, adding the model suggests the number could be between 30,000 and 200,000 cases. “Almost certainly many tens of thousands of people are infected,” he told the British newspaper.
27th January 2020
https://www.bucksfreepress.co.uk/news/18190169.wyc...
28th January 2020
Seemed to be kicking off, now
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-512758...
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-confirms-human-trans...
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-7937887...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51288672
https://www.bucksfreepress.co.uk/news/18190169.wyc...
Report said:
A British teacher from West Wycombe who has lived in Wuhan for 10 years fears he could be spreading deadly coronavirus – because he was not tested when he flew home to the UK last week.
28th January 2020
Seemed to be kicking off, now
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-512758...
Report said:
The death toll from the new coronavirus now stands at 106, with the number of infections almost doubling in a day to more than 4,500.
The rise comes as governments scramble to control the spread of the virus. Hong Kong is going to slash cross-border travel with mainland China.
Meanwhile, Japan is sending a plane to Wuhan, the epicentre of the outbreak, to evacuate its citizens
The virus has spread across China and to at least 16 countries globally.
The rise comes as governments scramble to control the spread of the virus. Hong Kong is going to slash cross-border travel with mainland China.
Meanwhile, Japan is sending a plane to Wuhan, the epicentre of the outbreak, to evacuate its citizens
The virus has spread across China and to at least 16 countries globally.
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-confirms-human-trans...
Report said:
Health authorities say a Bavarian man contracted the virus from a colleague visiting from China. It is believed to be the first case of human-to-human transmission in Europe.
Significanthttps://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-7937887...
Report said:
Drew Bennett, 39, is feared to have contracted the potentially deadly virus during a recent holiday to the Chinese city at the heart of the outbreak and is currently in isolation at a Birmingham hospital.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51288672
Report said:
The Foreign Office is warning Britons not to travel to mainland China, unless their journey is essential.
It comes as Britons in Hubei Province, at the centre of the coronavirus outbreak, prepare to be flown home as early as Thursday.
The virus has caused more than 100 deaths, spreading across China and to at least 16 other countries.
There have been no confirmed cases in the UK so far, with 97 people testing negative for the virus.
For months, now, I have thought that context should be given when reporting positive cases based on the number of tests carried out. Rather than 30,000 new cases, it should be "Of 900,000 tests undertaken, 870,000 were returned as negative".It comes as Britons in Hubei Province, at the centre of the coronavirus outbreak, prepare to be flown home as early as Thursday.
The virus has caused more than 100 deaths, spreading across China and to at least 16 other countries.
There have been no confirmed cases in the UK so far, with 97 people testing negative for the virus.
Been updating my "retrospective" just now, and back on 5th March 2020 PH'er "king arthur" posted this video:-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gmqgGwT6bw0
Pause the clip at 0:24, and look at the case numbers in China at that date. 80,270 confirmed cases as at 4th March 2020.
As the video states, the data is taken from the John Hopkins University of Medicine. Now have a look at the current data:-
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
The data will take a while to upload. However, scroll down the list on the left of Cases / Deaths by Country until you get to China. It is currently showing 106,529 cases to date....
Really??? Just over 26,000 cases between 4th March 2020 and 16th August 2021???? In a country with a population well over 1 billion.
[yoda]Stack up this does not[/yoda]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gmqgGwT6bw0
Pause the clip at 0:24, and look at the case numbers in China at that date. 80,270 confirmed cases as at 4th March 2020.
As the video states, the data is taken from the John Hopkins University of Medicine. Now have a look at the current data:-
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
The data will take a while to upload. However, scroll down the list on the left of Cases / Deaths by Country until you get to China. It is currently showing 106,529 cases to date....
Really??? Just over 26,000 cases between 4th March 2020 and 16th August 2021???? In a country with a population well over 1 billion.
[yoda]Stack up this does not[/yoda]
30th January 2020
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-513055...
https://twitter.com/who/status/1222967082733559808...
Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared by WHO
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-513055...
Report said:
The death toll from the coronavirus outbreak has risen to 170, and a confirmed case in Tibet means it has reached every region in mainland China.
Chinese health authorities said there were 7,711 confirmed cases in the country as of 29 January.
Infections have also spread to at least 15 other countries.
Somewhat different to the John Hopkins numbers of the same date,Chinese health authorities said there were 7,711 confirmed cases in the country as of 29 January.
Infections have also spread to at least 15 other countries.
geeks said:
As of 30 January, a total of 161 UK tests have concluded, of which 161 were confirmed negative and 0 positive.
https://twitter.com/who/status/1222967082733559808...
Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared by WHO
31st January 2020
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/cmo-confirms-ca...
https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1223218...
Chinese drone footage harassing non-mask wearers
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-51329361
Whitty on record stating 2% mortality and will be a minor illness for the vast majority
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/cmo-confirms-ca...
Report said:
We can confirm that 2 patients in England, who are members of the same family, have tested positive for coronavirus. The patients are receiving specialist NHS care, and we are using tried and tested infection control procedures to prevent further spread of the virus.
https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1223218...
Chinese drone footage harassing non-mask wearers
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-51329361
Whitty on record stating 2% mortality and will be a minor illness for the vast majority
2nd February 2020
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51345279
Early Government advice on how to prevent the spread of the virus (which was useful)
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7957645/H...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-asia-china-513...
Building a hospital in 10 days compressed to 60 seconds
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51345279
Early Government advice on how to prevent the spread of the virus (which was useful
)https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7957645/H...
said:
A hunt is underway to find hundreds of people who flew from coronavirus-hit Wuhan to Britain who are unaccounted for.
Officials are trying to trace 480 travellers who arrived in the country nine days ago from the city in China.
Officials are trying to trace 480 travellers who arrived in the country nine days ago from the city in China.
Erik997 said:
Just imagine Boris announcing a country wide curfew, mass travel bans, etc. Would take 5mins before total and utter chaos on the streets.
Well, at the time, you'd have thought yeshttps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-asia-china-513...
Building a hospital in 10 days compressed to 60 seconds
5th February 2020
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-51381594
https://twitter.com/billbirtles/status/12250474728...
Panic buying bog rolls in Hong Kong
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/beast-movi...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-51381594
said:
At least 10 people on board a cruise ship docked in the Japanese port of Yokohama have tested positive for coronavirus, health authorities say.
Almost 300 of the 3,700 people on the Diamond Princess have been tested so far. The number of infected could rise.
The checks began after an 80-year-old Hong Kong man who had been on the ship last month fell ill with the virus.
Almost 300 of the 3,700 people on the Diamond Princess have been tested so far. The number of infected could rise.
The checks began after an 80-year-old Hong Kong man who had been on the ship last month fell ill with the virus.
https://twitter.com/billbirtles/status/12250474728...
Panic buying bog rolls in Hong Kong
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/beast-movi...
said:
If indeed 2019-nCoV becomes pandemic, humanity may be stuck with it indefinitely. After spreading far and wide, the virus might become endemic in the human population, just like four other coronaviruses that cause the common cold, and occasionally cause fresh outbreaks. How much death and disease it would cause is anyone’s guess
My bold6th February 2020
https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/coronavirus...
Coronavirus vaccine in 90 days, goal for Maryland biotech firm
7th February 2020
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/07/brit...
https://www.archyde.com/schwabinger-chief-physicia...
18 months down the line, do we know how accurate that was?
https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/coronavirus...
Coronavirus vaccine in 90 days, goal for Maryland biotech firm
7th February 2020
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/07/brit...
said:
A British man onboard a cruise ship docked at a port in Japan has tested positive for coronavirus, Princess Cruises said.
Alan Steele, from Wolverhampton, posted on Facebook that he had been diagnosed with the virus. Believed to be on his honeymoon, Steele said he was not showing any symptoms but was being taken to hospital.
Alan Steele, from Wolverhampton, posted on Facebook that he had been diagnosed with the virus. Believed to be on his honeymoon, Steele said he was not showing any symptoms but was being taken to hospital.
https://www.archyde.com/schwabinger-chief-physicia...
said:
Chief physician Clemens Wendtner from the Clinic for Infectious Diseases in the Munich Clinic Schwabing, where seven of the twelve infected in Germany are treated, considers the danger of the coronavirus to be overestimated.
Schwabingen doctor rates mortality considerably lower
Mortality is said to be two to three percent in China, Wendtner said. But: “We think that is overestimated. We assume that the mortality rate is well below one percent, rather even in the alcohol range.” This is a similar size to that of influenza. It doesn’t have much to do with a very, very dangerous disease – the coronavirus is in no way more dangerous than influenza. The overvaluation stems from the fact that in China only the severe cases are admitted to hospitals because of the capacity bottlenecks; the number of unreported cases is high.
My bold above.Schwabingen doctor rates mortality considerably lower
Mortality is said to be two to three percent in China, Wendtner said. But: “We think that is overestimated. We assume that the mortality rate is well below one percent, rather even in the alcohol range.” This is a similar size to that of influenza. It doesn’t have much to do with a very, very dangerous disease – the coronavirus is in no way more dangerous than influenza. The overvaluation stems from the fact that in China only the severe cases are admitted to hospitals because of the capacity bottlenecks; the number of unreported cases is high.
18 months down the line, do we know how accurate that was?
8th February 2020
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/07/chin...
https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-china-mainly-int...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51429400
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7982445/C...
Includes video footage of people being forcibly removed from their homes in China
For clarity, much - if not all - of these reports from last year are new to me. Between Feb 2020 and lockdown #1, I just kept my head down. Aside from work, it was guitar practice (with lots of music theory), and watching YT vids of i) supercar drag races on a runway in Switzerland and ii) vintage watch restorations by the "Nekkid Watchmaker" .
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/07/chin...
said:
Gilead, a company that makes HIV drugs, has announced it will trial its drug remdesivir in the coronavirus outbreak. The drug was tested during the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo in 2018, but the Congolese authorities announced it was not sufficiently effective against the virus.
The new trial of remdesivir will be gold standard, investigating how well it works in both moderately and severely ill patients compared with others given a placebo.
The new trial of remdesivir will be gold standard, investigating how well it works in both moderately and severely ill patients compared with others given a placebo.
https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-china-mainly-int...
said:
From the perspective of enforcing censorship, the taskforce has done a brilliant job. CCTV has been broadcasting how developing countries are "praising" China's efforts to contain the epidemic. However, since these are all countries that have taken huge amounts of loans from China, they are paying China back by praising its behaviors unconditionally.
"Praising" lockdowns https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51429400
said:
The World Health Organisation (WHO) has warned that "trolls and conspiracy theories" are undermining their response to the new coronavirus.
WHO Director General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told reporters that misinformation was "making the work of our heroic workers even harder".
More than 34,800 people have been infected with the new coronavirus worldwide, the vast majority in China.
There have been 723 deaths in China and one death abroad, in the Philippines.
WHO Director General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told reporters that misinformation was "making the work of our heroic workers even harder".
More than 34,800 people have been infected with the new coronavirus worldwide, the vast majority in China.
There have been 723 deaths in China and one death abroad, in the Philippines.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7982445/C...
Includes video footage of people being forcibly removed from their homes in China
For clarity, much - if not all - of these reports from last year are new to me. Between Feb 2020 and lockdown #1, I just kept my head down. Aside from work, it was guitar practice (with lots of music theory), and watching YT vids of i) supercar drag races on a runway in Switzerland and ii) vintage watch restorations by the "Nekkid Watchmaker" .
9th February 2020
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1226459760...
4th case identified in UK confirmed by Whitty
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/cmo-confirms-fo...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-asia-china-51...
https://twitter.com/drtedros/status/12265994815352...
W.H.O. head off to China
Another call to all countries to step up their preparedness for the arrival of the virus
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/02/breaking-...
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1226459760...
4th case identified in UK confirmed by Whitty
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/cmo-confirms-fo...
said:
The patient has been transferred to a specialist NHS centre at The Royal Free Hospital, and we are now using robust infection control measures to prevent any possible further spread of the virus. The NHS is extremely well prepared to manage these cases and treat them, and we are working quickly to identify any further contacts the patient has had.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-asia-china-51...
said:
Thousands of people stuck on a cruise ship in Hong Kong for four days have been allowed to disembark after tests for coronavirus came back negative.
Some 3,600 passengers and crew on the World Dream ship were quarantined amid fears some staff could have contracted the virus on a previous voyage.
Another cruise ship where dozens of cases have been confirmed remains in quarantine off Japan.
Diamond PrincessSome 3,600 passengers and crew on the World Dream ship were quarantined amid fears some staff could have contracted the virus on a previous voyage.
Another cruise ship where dozens of cases have been confirmed remains in quarantine off Japan.
https://twitter.com/drtedros/status/12265994815352...
W.H.O. head off to China
Another call to all countries to step up their preparedness for the arrival of the virus
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/02/breaking-...
said:
Dr. George Diaz: About a week into his course he got worse developed pneumonia. At that point given the reports we had gotten out of China… At that point we elected to give him… the experimental Remdesivir, antiviral medication. And within 24 hours he improved significantly. This was quite encouraging and he improved and thereafter remained without fever and felt much better. Over the next few days he improved to where we thought he could be discharged at home under the care of the local health district.
10th February 2020
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1226768197...
https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/status/122678133...
https://news.sky.com/story/british-man-feared-to-b...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51442314
But, reported the same day:-
https://nextshark.com/chen-qiushi-journalist-missi...
https://nextshark.com/coronavirus-nurse-china-9000... (Dated 27th January 2020)
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1226768197...
said:
The Department of Health says the incidence or transmission of novel Coronavirus constitutes "a serious and imminent threat to public health"
https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/status/122678133...
said:
Our CFR estimates place 2019-nCoV in the same range as the flu pandemics of the 20th century. Which pandemic (1918, 57 or 68) is currently unclear. And whether the global impact is comparable depends on what proportion of people are eventually infected.
https://news.sky.com/story/british-man-feared-to-b...
said:
A British man who became infected with coronavirus in Singapore appears to be linked to at least seven other confirmed cases in England, France and Spain - prompting fears he may be a so-called "super spreader" of the deadly virus.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51442314
said:
There have been more than 40,000 cases of the virus globally, mostly in China. The total number of deaths in China is now 908.
But, reported the same day:-
https://nextshark.com/chen-qiushi-journalist-missi...
said:
A Chinese citizen journalist has reportedly gone missing after exposing Wuhan’s “urgent epidemic situation” involving the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in a YouTube video posted last week.
And embedded in the above article:-https://nextshark.com/coronavirus-nurse-china-9000... (Dated 27th January 2020)
said:
Woman Claiming to Be a Wuhan Nurse Alleges Over 90,000 Are Infected With Coronavirus in Viral Video (video now deleted.....)
MaxSo said:
Chap from Imperial College London (involved with the study I’ve posted a few times today) just on Radio 4...
Basically said that he reckons potentially 472 thousand people in the UK could die if it turns into an epidemic here.
He said 60-70% of people could be infected, with 1% case fatality rate.
(Transcript excerpt as follows):-
“More likely we are in the early stages of a global pandemic”
“We can’t assume we can stop it”
“For seasonal flu, we get about maybe 15% of the population of the country infected each year on average by a new strain - so it’s not overwhelming.”
“For this virus, potentially everybody is susceptible and so we could be taking about an epidemic which maybe infects 60 - 80 % of the population - so the size will be much larger.”
“The second thing is just severity ....what proportion of people might die.... could be as high as about 1% of everybody who gets infected might die”.
He said what I though he said.
It’s actually worse than I heard before because I thought he 60 - 70 %
Bloody hell.
So, to recap:
- UK population: 68 million
- An “epidemic which maybe infects 60-80%” could infect up to 54.5 million in the UK
- “about 1% of everybody who gets infected might die” ...1% of 54.5 million is 544 thousand people in the UK.
The first instance of Ferguson's wildly inaccurate and inflammatory prediction?Basically said that he reckons potentially 472 thousand people in the UK could die if it turns into an epidemic here.
He said 60-70% of people could be infected, with 1% case fatality rate.
(Transcript excerpt as follows):-
“More likely we are in the early stages of a global pandemic”
“We can’t assume we can stop it”
“For seasonal flu, we get about maybe 15% of the population of the country infected each year on average by a new strain - so it’s not overwhelming.”
“For this virus, potentially everybody is susceptible and so we could be taking about an epidemic which maybe infects 60 - 80 % of the population - so the size will be much larger.”
“The second thing is just severity ....what proportion of people might die.... could be as high as about 1% of everybody who gets infected might die”.
He said what I though he said.
It’s actually worse than I heard before because I thought he 60 - 70 %
Bloody hell.
So, to recap:
- UK population: 68 million
- An “epidemic which maybe infects 60-80%” could infect up to 54.5 million in the UK
- “about 1% of everybody who gets infected might die” ...1% of 54.5 million is 544 thousand people in the UK.
11th February 2020
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-51459210?__twitt...
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/governmen...
Although the document relates to a 'flu pandemic, page 21 is of interest:-
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-51459210?__twitt...
said:
A British man linked to 11 coronavirus cases has spoken for the first time, saying he has "fully recovered" from the illness.
Steve Walsh, who remains quarantined in hospital, says his thoughts are with others who have contracted the virus.
He said his family have been asked to isolate themselves "as a precaution".
andSteve Walsh, who remains quarantined in hospital, says his thoughts are with others who have contracted the virus.
He said his family have been asked to isolate themselves "as a precaution".
said:
Speaking on a visit to Birmingham, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the public had "every reason to be confident and calm" about the threat of the virus, adding: "We have got a fantastic NHS".
and said:
The World Health Organization said it now has a name for the new coronavirus - Covid-19
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/governmen...
Although the document relates to a 'flu pandemic, page 21 is of interest:-
pp.21 said:
All social distance measures depend on compliance by the population which, in turn, depends on the social acceptability of the measures. Without good behavioural research on these it is difficult to predict the impact of such measures being deployed in a future pandemic.
Is this part of the reason why behavioural scientists started getting seats on SAGE?12th February 2020
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/phe-novel-coron...
(Above article dated 7th Feb, but posted on PH 12th Feb)
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviru...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-51481469
https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/02/har...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QEtvhMgauq8
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/phe-novel-coron...
(Above article dated 7th Feb, but posted on PH 12th Feb)
said:
The novel coronavirus diagnostic test developed by Public Health England (PHE) is being rolled out to laboratories across the UK starting on Monday 10 February 2020. The increase in diagnostic capacity from one laboratory in London to 12 labs over the coming weeks, will accelerate the country’s testing capabilities.
The UK was one of the first countries outside China to have assured testing capability for the novel coronavirus. At PHE’s laboratories in London, it has the capacity to process samples from more than 100 people a day.
Now, to ensure that the country is prepared for further cases and to speed up the time from a sample being taken to a result in the lab, the test will be carried out by trained scientists across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. This increases testing capacity to more than 1,000 people a day for England.
The UK was one of the first countries outside China to have assured testing capability for the novel coronavirus. At PHE’s laboratories in London, it has the capacity to process samples from more than 100 people a day.
Now, to ensure that the country is prepared for further cases and to speed up the time from a sample being taken to a result in the lab, the test will be carried out by trained scientists across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. This increases testing capacity to more than 1,000 people a day for England.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviru...
said:
Globally
43 103 confirmed (2560 new)
China
42 708 confirmed (2484 new)
7333 severe (849 new)
1017 deaths (108 new)
Outside of China
395 confirmed (76 new)
24 countries
1 death
43 103 confirmed (2560 new)
China
42 708 confirmed (2484 new)
7333 severe (849 new)
1017 deaths (108 new)
Outside of China
395 confirmed (76 new)
24 countries
1 death
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-51481469
said:
A woman who flew into London from China a few days ago is being treated for coronavirus, bringing the total number of UK cases to nine.
Chief medical officer Chris Whitty said the woman was transferred to a specialist NHS centre at Guy's and St Thomas' in central London.
Prof Whitty said the patient had contracted the virus in China.
Chief medical officer Chris Whitty said the woman was transferred to a specialist NHS centre at Guy's and St Thomas' in central London.
Prof Whitty said the patient had contracted the virus in China.
https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/02/har...
said:
The number of confirmed cases of the Wuhan coronavirus have continued to surge inside China, sickening tens of thousands, with a death toll of more than 1,000. But outside the Asian giant the numbers remain a fraction of that, a trend Harvard’s Marc Lipsitch views with suspicion. Lipsitch thinks it is just a matter of time before the virus spreads widely internationally, which means nations so far only lightly hit should prepare for its eventual arrival in force and what may seem like the worst flu season in modern times. Lipsitch, professor of epidemiology at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and head of the School’s Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, talked to the Gazette about recent developments in the outbreak and provided a look ahead.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QEtvhMgauq8
said:
CDC: We Absolutely Assume The Reported Cases in China Are An Underestimate.
60% of cremations are from deaths at home. Not included in the official figures.
60% of cremations are from deaths at home. Not included in the official figures.
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