Credit Suisse - Is it going to go bust, if so what happens?

[Carl_Manchester]

If it does go pop, the implications will be far-reaching, not least for London.

https://www.credit-suisse.com/about-us-news/en/art...

[Carl_Manchester]

Gecko1978 said:

This has been an armagedon sized rumour for about 28 months now any other truth in it

Truth? this is financial services

I think its fair to say that things are not looking better than they were. The high-yield deposit campaign has slowed the bleeding but ....

[Carl_Manchester]

[Carl_Manchester]

Credit Suisse CDS has hit an all time high.

[Carl_Manchester]

that graph you seek, it's on page one. CS is way out west.

[Carl_Manchester]

Oops (subscription required).

"Credit Suisse finds ‘material weaknesses’ in financial reporting controls"

https://www.ft.com/content/3605c3fb-973d-440d-88e3...

[Carl_Manchester]

"Credit Suisse Top Holder Rules Out Investing More After Drop"

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-15...

"How Switzerland’s once-feted banking industry became a national embarrassment"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/03/14/cr...

Subs. required.

[Carl_Manchester]

CNBC are saying that trading has been halted after a 21% price drop on the CS shares.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/15/credit-suisse-shar...

and here goes the CDS (to 'da moon!)



Swiss regulator statement incoming in 3....2.....1.......

Edited by Carl_Manchester on Wednesday 15th March 11:10

[Carl_Manchester]

It does not feel that way to me unless you are talking about other zombie banks like Unicredit.

But in these situations (the emperor has no clothes type situations), usually a huge fraud is uncovered somewhere in the financial system.

Madoff escaped being found out when he should have been found out as he got lucky and got bailed out but I do wonder if/where we will see one amongst the incoming carnage. e.g. Jérôme Kerviel

[Carl_Manchester]

Four Litre said:

Surely only a matter of time now. Apart from a bailout they are toast.

A few people on twitter have done the CDS maths and the implied risk Credit Suisse going bust is now 38% or, just over 1 in 3 chance.

Source is 'Holger Zschaepitz'.

[Carl_Manchester]

It's hard to say but part of me says, its not like Unicredit and CS did not have enough time and rope to sort themselves out and the authorities can't really run policy just to keep a bunch of zombie basket-cases alive forever.

There have been stories of CS recently offering Chinese based depositors 6.5% returns on $2m cash deposits. It feels like we are heading towards some sort of end-game with CS. I would expect them to be taken over by the Swiss authorities and broken up/wound down in a structured manner, a bit like what happened to RBS in the U.K.

[Carl_Manchester]

Sometime before 9.40pm GMT, the Swiss regulators statement was made available and it was covered by Reuters here:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/cautious-calm-retu...

[Carl_Manchester]

CS has gone bust. it was given a $54bn bailout , end of story ?

[Carl_Manchester]

Adam. said:

Selling or closing IB would solve a lot of their problems.

Yes, but that's where all the extremely highly paid and clever people work.

[Carl_Manchester]

Zed Ed said:

Gweeds said:

Incredible to see that rap sheet and yet no exec has seen the inside of a cell.

Again. Every fking time.

Some/most of those not unexpected in the businesses, products and jurisdictions they operate in. They are a big business , peeps take the pee and things go wrong.

Wealth and International Banking likely more troublesome than the investment bank. Losses are part of banking life.

I started a thread on the Credit Suisse espionage scandal a while back. I have not posted in it for well over a year event though the Swiss regulator still has the bank under investigation.

why? it's mostly been swept under the carpet.

this lot have operated like the mob for years and now the chickens have come home to roost.

[Carl_Manchester]

Apparently the negotiations are going on right now to agree a UBS and CS merger.

Combined balance sheet will be $1.3 trillion.

what could possibly go wrong.

[Carl_Manchester]

CS Media Relations team chief has stated that the bank has not gone bust and is in fact perfectly solvent and profitable. the delay in the year reports being released was simply a clerical error.

[Carl_Manchester]

a press release has gone out from the Swiss government.

UBS share holders will swallow CS without a vote.

[Carl_Manchester]

it's end game stuff, the SNB have also included a $100bn liquidity option to UBS.

that's alot of money.

[Carl_Manchester]

SWoll said:

Carl_Manchester said:

it's end game stuff, the SNB have also included a $100bn liquidity option to UBS.

that's alot of money.

Got a decent link so I can read more? Since the FTX debacle I'm finding myself more and more fascinated by what is going on in the world of big finance.

there's now a write up here :

https://www.reuters.com/business/crunch-time-credi...