What’s your big gamble? (Volume 2)

[500 Miles]

Ok...

Phase one trial period is complete. We’re now on volume 2 - this is where we will all make our fortunes - I promise.. *

• not legally binding..

Continued from here:
https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...

[500 Miles]

egomeister said:

any thoughts on Babcock?

If you’re Max Mosley and like regular painful sessions, then Babcock is the share for you.

Cine can also provide that type of relief/entertainment..

[500 Miles]

emicen said:

I have previously held Boohoo and have read many Motley analyses.

If it’s a “buy and watch it fly“ today, it’ll be a “bail before it crashes“ within a few days.

Although utterly shameful, it feels appropriate to quote a bit of Katy Perry in the current context:
“You, change your mind, like a girl, changes clothes”

The only Motley Fool tip I’ve bought into is Shopify - up over 118% since buying in... obviously that means they are always right.

They do change their opinions more than I change my underwear, twice a week sometimes..

I think Boo is a relatively (compared with others) safe share - maybe not going to double in 6 months but should be good for a 25% increase in that time. I didn’t manage to get in at their Covid lows but got a good price during the modern slavery scandal - up 25% and it’s my largest £ increase now.

I expect their revenue in their next update to be very good, although their advertising costs will probably increase substantially - every remarketing ad that I’m receiving at the moment is Boo Hoo, they must be outbidding everyone else.

SNG and Amigo could have great upsides, although both are pretty risky and definitely in the gamble pile

[500 Miles]

dingg said:

Aa. Have pulled the trading update due on 11th

Market sees it as a positive so far.

Interesting that the main focus of the statement was the all cash offer - although maybe I’m seeing that as the main focus as I don’t want to think about a rights issue

Already starting to wonder what I can invest in with the proceeds... maybe top up on CINE, RBG, IDP or Boo..

[500 Miles]

Chris Type R said:

Might we actually see 30p today on AA. - getting close.

It’s a baw hair away...

[500 Miles]

Chris Type R said:

500 Miles said:

It’s a baw hair away...

Dang those pesky market manipulators.

It’s certainly trying... and consistently failing to get to 30

[500 Miles]

Chris Type R said:

30 paid.

The graph shows the trend is there. Hoping for some madness once it crosses 32.

30.25 paid.

Edited by Chris Type R on Friday 7th August 15:28

It made it! Hopefully some ‘leaks’ over the weekend about the bids and this will bounce higher.

[500 Miles]

500 Miles said:

Chris Type R said:

30 paid.

The graph shows the trend is there. Hoping for some madness once it crosses 32.

30.25 paid.

Edited by Chris Type R on Friday 7th August 15:28

It made it! Hopefully some ‘leaks’ over the weekend about the bids and this will bounce higher.

Forgot to say “Wouldn’t like to be out of this over the weekend!”

[500 Miles]

indestructible focus said:

Thoughts on the best value homebuilder? Can see Crest Nicholson is down into the dumps.

They seem to have taken a dip, I know residencies, wage pressure etc. But what's your thoughts.

AA and boohoo doing well and will be offloading soon. Travel and tourism stocks is a no no with main earning season nearly over and look overvalued.

I’ve got Barrett’s which has served me well - up 22% currently and looks like it has further to go. I’ve not looked at others recently.

Have you thought about buying a brick manufacturer - IBStock looks like good value and sell off could be overdone.

[500 Miles]

AA up over 7% now... looks like the market has finally caught up with our thinking...

if it could just catch up with the thinking on - IDP, RBG, Babcock (although think we’ve all sold out?), etc..

[500 Miles]

Chris Type R said:

BAB - I bought on the way down having booked profit.

and ...SSPG, RPS, INVP, NRR.... and of course CINE - oh, and CPI.

A profit on Bab? I’m not sure that’s allowed... maybe we should adopt the “Don’t ask Don’t Tell” policy...

[500 Miles]

Good to see CINE recover most of its losses..

AA played a stormer in the end - BOO, Mulberry and EQT were also heroes...

Our favourite newsagents is in danger of being dropped in the popularity ranks to below RS Mccols.

Off topic but a bit of Friday humour... Those north of the border will no doubt have been watching these on a daily basis..

https://www.instagram.com/tv/CDls-KPlxNH/?igshid=e...

Have a good weekend all - next week our shares are going to the moon apart from Babcock..

[500 Miles]

Over 14% up today now.. seems to have shot up in the last 30 mins or so.

[500 Miles]

Luke. said:

Evening all. Before you all sign off for the weekend. Can anyone tell me if this is good or bad for CINE? Ta.

https://deadline.com/2020/08/paramount-consent-dec...

No idea... Doesn’t look like it’ll be the thing that will sink Cine, or make it rocket..

[500 Miles]

dingg said:

petemurphy said:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/...

It's an interesting conundrum, 40p was my short-term goal a couple of months ago and anything over that would be great, year target was 70p if they refinance and go it alone they would hit that imo, but I'd be happy with anything over 40p in a couple of weeks time.

They have a hefty weight in my portfolio as do sng, so all in all not a bad day today :-)

Ps Keep an eye on IQE some upside there next week I think

Nice one Ding! Decent end to the week for you.

I was hoping in the mid to long term for 80/100p which was always optimistic. 40p would be a decent return - 50p/60p in the next few weeks would be very good.

[500 Miles]

dingg said:

500 Miles said:

Nice one Ding! Decent end to the week for you.

I was hoping in the mid to long term for 80/100p which was always optimistic. 40p would be a decent return - 50p/60p in the next few weeks would be very good.

Cheers
Very happy at the moment
When you started the original thread a few months ago I went for Aa. Sng and bwng

I've done OK on all 3, if I'd sold off all my dogs and went all in a third on each, oh well Rodders this time next year....
Seriously I'd have been in a much better position than I am but I'm still over 120% up since then so very happy :-)

Carrerra85 will be pissed off as he didn't realise the ethos of the thread.

jph looks after our serious money but once target reached the gambling pot is going across



I think. Lol

I was wondering earlier if I should do the calculations to see how much I’d be up if I only backed the three top winners... decided not to torture myself... 120% up is a great result!

My plan (as much as I have one) is to put the proceeds (assuming there are some) from this into IM and also a couple of private investments. Already have some in IM - PH Equity, PH recovery and another one which I always get the name wrong..

[500 Miles]

Maxf said:

If you do that, be sure to calculate where you’d be if you’d only backed the 3 biggest losers too... if your portfolio is anything like mine, that will keep you somewhat more sane!

Yeah, that’s a very very good point let’s not think about..

[500 Miles]

Chris Type R said:

Danny4494 said:

Looks like I shouldn't of bottled it with AA, and anyone any ideas what's going on with hammerson

Nothing is certain with AA.

Very true, could all go tits up.

The FT article was interesting, sounded like Albert Capital with 18% wanted a higher price than the 40p to 50p range - since then Apollo have indicated they are interested in bidding.

Overall an increase in the amount paid per share will have a limited impact on the price paid overall when you consider debt.

Could get very interesting - or, they could all drop out and we suffer from a rights issue or some kind of debt for equity swap.

[500 Miles]

dingg said:

petemurphy said:

if it does get taken over do we just sit back and get the cash for the shares and if so how long does it take? thanks

If it's an agreed deal the sp will be close to the bid, you can either sell up then and remove any risk of it collapsing or hold on until the bitter end.

I had this on Rock Rose Energy - SP went up about 80% when the bid was announced. Bid was at 1850 and it immediately went to 1830/1840 - I sold out at the 1830/1840 level - would have got slightly more by waiting until the acquisition was completed but the difference in that case was negligible and thought it best to derisk early.

If the market thinks the bid will definitely succeed then the sp will go close to the bid price - if it doesn’t then it may not rise too much (AA situation) - if the market thinks there is going to be a higher bidder then sometimes the sp raises to above the bid price.

Obviously in AA’s case we don’t have a formal offer price yet. I’m going to wait until there is a decent preferred offer.

As others have said, the actual sp will represent a small portion of the purchase price - hopefully that means we could see a good increase from current levels.

[500 Miles]

Anyone invested in AO?

They’ve been in the press a few times recently (including today’s Sunday Times) about new bonus scheme which fully pays out if the shares top 1255p - currently 172p and floated at 285p in 2014... last 5 years has seen revenue grow quite significantly (£600m to £1bn) but only made £1.5m profit last year and losses the other years..

Glass Lewis pushing back as they think the bonuses are too generous but if achieved it would mean transforming a £800m mcap company into almost a £8bn mcap company.. execs rarely ask for bonuses they don’t think they can achieve..

Obviously there will be other levels paid out but it shows confidence...

Thoughts? SP has tripled since May which is probably when I started looking at them... grrr