The 2018 summer and thunder thread

[Puggit]

I wouldn't normally open it up this far out from a predicted 20oC, but I think we all need this!

Signs for a warm start to April persist... This is April 10th.

[Puggit]

Shaw Tarse said:

If we don't get a decent summer, OP is heading for a ban!

And where did I promise a decent summer? I promised a period called summer, with with some thunder

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red_slr said:

Not a single leaf on the trees round here yet...

Hedgerows are showing some nascent leaves - but trees always wait until April normally?

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rossub said:

11c FFS

It's 2 weeks away - this chart is showing a trend, and that is all!

Mind you, it would still be worth leaving Scotland for the South

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Is that fence designed to shear the sheep?

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Faust66 said:

Summer? I loathe this time of year.

[Puggit]

There is hope for the weekend...

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/9811317075574...

[Puggit]

Ah well, stand down - it was always touch and go for Friday in to the weekend, and it looks like the warmth will stay in Europe.

No obvious sign of a warm spell - we're heading in to a spell of low pressure systems with short settled spells. Typical spring like weather.

There are signs of a cool easterly in a few weeks too.

[Puggit]

Very hopeful for next weekend.

Actually today was lovely, ended up totally rainless and fairly warm.

[Puggit]

Off to southern Netherlands tomorrow - temps in the low 20s

2nd half of April is looking exceedingly good. Get those BBQs cleaned up early - so you don't miss out.

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jjones said:

they lied.

No, they were slightly out. It will be in the low 20s in the Netherlands today. Not far out.

ECM predicting high pressure starts to bring warmth from Saturday. GFS predicts Atlantic lows - as it always does. I'd give 70/30 to the ECM, but it may end up with eastern areas doing well and western parts getting the wet.

[Puggit]

ApOrbital said:

What's the scores george doors for next week in north east yorkshire ?

Most likely outcome is beer garden...

[Puggit]

GFS and ECM pretty much agree on this:



Winds from SE most likely - so cool on-shore breezes on the east coast, then the warmer parts, and cool western areas

[Puggit]

Good chance of heavy localised thunderstorms in the SE today

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Liam Dutton says: https://twitter.com/liamdutton/status/983685740675...

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HTP99 said:

Puggit said:

I wouldn't normally open it up this far out from a predicted 20oC, but I think we all need this!

Signs for a warm start to April persist... This is April 10th.

Well that was wrong; for me anyway in the SE.

As already posted - it was actually pretty accurate for such a long range forecast. It was 20oC in the Netherlands around the same time. That's pretty amazing for 10/11 days out.

[Puggit]

Yesterday's sunshine total (hours)

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Fear not - nice upgrades for next week's warmth.

Currently modelling 25 degrees for Thames Valley and London on Weds, and good chance of heat hanging on through the following weekend

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gazapc said:

After seeing those sun hours for Harris/Lewis, anything for the Highlands and Western Isles from next wedsnesday? Off on a road trip for 10 days!

I'm afraid those areas will pay next week. High pressure to East, low pressure to wear, sucking warm air up from the south.

This means generally there's likely to be a lot of cloud, but the NW will be closest to the low.

Final positions aren't known, so might not be terrible - but will be the least good weather in the UK.

[Puggit]

As you can see on the temp charts - NW Scotland suffering while most of England goes shirtless in the beer garden: