The Official 2017 British Grand Prix Thread **Spoilers**

[Dr Z]

Back to back and no takers on British GP?! So, taking it upon myself to start it off.

Date(s): Friday 14 July - Sunday 16 July 2017

UK Broadcast Timings (and local time)

All sessions are live on Sky F1 & Channel 4.

Session	Day	Sky F1	Channel 4	Session Start	Local Time
Practice 1	Fri	0845	0855	0900	0900
Practice 2	Fri	1245	1255	1300	1300
Practice 3	Sat	0945	0955	1000	1000
Qualifying	Sat	1200	1155	1300	1300
Race	Sun	1130	1200	1300	1300

Silverstone Circuit



Live timing for all sessions available here:

http://www.formula1.com/content/fom-website/en/f1-...

Weather forecast:

http://www.myweather2.com/Motor-Racing/United-King...

Event timings, steward decisions, technical reports and laptimes for the weekend will appear here:

http://www.fia.com/events/fia-formula-one-world-ch...

The tyre choices:


Circuit/tyre info:

• Silverstone is all about lateral energy, thanks to high-speed corners like Becketts.
• With a softer tyre selection than ever seen before, more than one pit stop is likely.
• British weather is famously variable: anything from sunshine to rain is possible.
• The abrasive surface offers high levels of grip, which takes even more out of the tyres.
• The straights are generally short, so the cars run reasonably high downforce levels.
• Track is intensively used during the year, so the surface tends to rubber in quite quickly

2016 Grand Prix





^Rosberg got docked a position due to a penalty.

Well, it was a Lewis and Max show!

---

I think this is a first proper test of where in the development race Ferrari are. I expect a Mercedes to take pole, but if Ferrari are less than 3 tenths off that, it bodes well for the rest of the year (and for Vettel’s WDC hopes). Ferrari are set to introduce their 3rd iteration of this year’s ICE in the works cars. News was that it was trialled by Haas in the last race and it gave a very handy performance boost.

Expect pole in the dry to be in the low 1m26s, dipping into the high 1m25s.

Watchout for the Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari in the Maggots/Becketts/Chapel sequence, but especially the Mercedes. It should be a great sight! Shame I’m not able to go this year.

The lap record for the circuit should be under threat again.

[Dr Z]

suffolk009 said:

It's got to be Kimi's turn to win something!

You may well receive your wish at Spa or Suzuka. Both circuits Kimi has gone well at and the Ferrari should be very good in those.

[Dr Z]

Vaud said:

So what do we think for target quali time given the predominance of medium-high speed corners?

High 1:26?

I think the Merc could do a 1:26.5-1:26.8 on the Softs. I'd imagine the Super Softs might have to be managed a little bit over a quali lap, so I'd say low 1:26s or maybe even high 1:25s should be possible. That puts the average speed at around 245 km/h. It would be the fastest lap (in terms of average speed) since 1990 at Silverstone.

I'm less sure of where the competition might come from. I have a hunch that Merc have at least half a second on the nearest competitor in terms of qualifying pace. Ferrari and RBR should be very close. Very keen to see how Ferrari perform here.

Race pace in the dry should be right with the V10 cars in terms of average speed, and in terms of lap time in the range of the 2010 cars.

Merc are predicting apex speed at Copse to be around 290 km/h, 35 km/h faster than last year. Qualifying should be a treat!

[Dr Z]

FP1:

[Dr Z]

FP2:



Merc are looking strong I'm afraid, particularly in sector 2.

McLaren best of the midfield in S2 - losing time to other midfielders in S1 & 3. Nice to see a mix of tyres being tried by the teams.

Despite Karun harping on about Pirelli bringing the ultra soft here, I think the cars are still managing the pace a bit on the Super Soft with heavy fuel loads. The Soft looked the best tyre for the race, in terms of pace v longevity. For the top teams, it might be worth qualifying on the Soft tyre in Q2 for getting a better range in the 1st stint.

[Dr Z]

Just analysed the long runs on Super Soft, and things are looking more promising at the front:



Hamilton and Bottas were well matched, and Raikkonen too put in a pretty fast run on the Super Softs. Vettel is thereabouts too, and it does look like the Ferrari is looking after the super softs a bit better. RB is a little bit off this pace, but the Williams seems to be working well--pretty much on RB's pace.

RB's friday long runs can be unreliable for Sunday race pace as they most often improve the car over the weekend and almost always show better competitiveness on Sunday.

Promising pace from McLaren too, right in the mix with Renault and Force India.

The Merc seems to have a small advantage (0.3s/lap) on the Softs to Ferrari but it's hard to read and Ferrari could've been sandbagging.

Rain could only spice things up further. Here's hoping. Speaking of which, starting on the Soft tyre could give good range into the race distance if there's a good chance of rain during the race. Wonder if RB or other front runners will go for a strategy split?

The teams were again aiming for a 1-stop and I think it should be doable if the Super Softs can be stretched to around the 20 lap mark. Merc tried the Medium on Bottas' car--to gauge race pace on that, may be if they were forced into an undercut situation early but still want to retain the 1-stop plan. My impression was that the tyre was doing ok, except the performance in sector 1 was little bit lacking compared to the Softs.

I wouldn't be surprised if Hamilton takes pole though, he just seemed to be taking it a little bit easy today on the quick laps. Make it look close, then put in that quick lap in Q2 that will make the crowd go 'wow', then proceed to improve on that lap in Q3; as ever the showman.

TheAngryDog said:

I didnt think the Ultra Soft was at this GP? I thought it was Medium, Soft and Super Soft?

You're correct, but I was referring to Karun in the C4 coverage in FP2 banging on that the Super Soft is still too hard for this track and that Pirelli should have brought their softest compound to force a 2-stop. I'm not sure about that.

[Dr Z]

London424 said:

Penalty confirmed for Bottas.

Ah! Shame, he could have given Hamilton a good run. Bottas' medium tyre run makes sense now.

[Dr Z]

Derek Smith said:

So what's with the different tyre strategy? Bottas going for a one stop?

Yep, would not be surprised to see him qualifying on the Soft tyre in Q2 and go on to the Mediums to run to the end. May be on a similar role to Kimi last race, where he was used to effectively destroy Hamilton's race to a podium position.

Doink said:

Do we have any speed trap data, I'm sure I saw Alonso at 192mph while Lewis was 195 on a quick lap, the spec 3 is rumoured to be a 30hp improvement without any reliability worries either

Not sure speed trap on the fast times in the practice sessions would give much of an indication where everything is turned down, but the speeds during the long runs would be more representative for the race. I had a look in the F1 app.

I think the McLaren is tuned for speed in S2, especially Alonso given the grid penalties. Vandoorne less so. Top speed at the end of Hangar straight is ~300 km/h for both Hamilton and Alonso. 295 km/h for Vandoorne; similar speeds into Copse and Maggots. The McLarens are between 10-15 km/h down on top speed at the other acceleration zones (in the run to Abbey/Brooklands). Not too bad.

Bottas is also trimmed out a bit for speed too. Was around 5 km/h faster at the end of the Hangar straight in his race runs.

[Dr Z]

All bets off for a rainy qualifying. First time these cars will be running competitively in damp conditions? Excited.

[Dr Z]

Red Flag.

tux said:

Did anyone else see the spray/vortices on the Torro Rosso down the hanger straight? Looked to be coming from the centre of the wheels, never seen that before.

Yep, Blown wheel hubs.

[Dr Z]

Go Fonzy!

[Dr Z]

ZX10R NIN said:

Yea saw that did you see the vortices coming off of SV front wing.

No, didn't manage to catch that.

[Dr Z]

Derek Smith said:

You got it right, Dr Z.

Puts him in a much better position than the guys around him tomorrow who will no doubt start to suffer after 10-12 laps.

[Dr Z]

Hmm. Pole is not as fast as I thought. Rain/conditions played a little part? Good lap nonetheless. Ferrari half a second off. Not sure what to think about that, I expected a bigger gap from Merc to Ferrari, but yet not close enough to say the fight is really on for the rest of the year.

Long runs seemed more promising though. Roll on, race day. Kimi's in a racy mood saying he's got nothing to lose, so he'll have a go into T1.

I'm out, will catch up with the race later on. Play nice folks.

[Dr Z]

A Mercedes 1-2! Who here saw that coming?

Joking aside, Vettel was controlling Bottas pretty well in the 2nd stint until he hit some tyre trouble (from lap 40 on, his pace dropped off), so a Ferrari 2-3 would have been the expected result. It would have been very difficult for Bottas to overtake Vettel as the tyre delta between soft and super soft was not straightforward on a 1-stop.

On the plus (or minus depending on who you support), the points gap to Vettel has been demolished, and Bottas too is within a race win of the top 2.

We're at the halfway point, and the Championship could go two ways from here on. On a more positive note, Ferrari delivered the expected performance improvements at Silverstone, and this means they're still in good shape and could fight for the WDC or if Kimi improves his race performances (he was doing well here), could fight for the WCC. It's going to be very tough, but the drivers and the team will have to raise their games.

For me, the next 5 or 6 races would determine if Ferrari fade away or not. Of the next 6 races, Ferrari have a reasonable chance at Hungary, Monza & Singapore and a pretty good chance at Spa & Suzuka in fighting for wins. Sprinkle it with some Vettel magic at Singapore, I can see Vettel in an epic back and forth fight till the latter part of the season with Hamilton. After that, I wouldn't like to guess which way things will go. Spa and Suzuka are Kimi tracks and it might hurt Vettel if he takes points off him. I could say the same about Hamilton & Bottas although we haven't seen them on the same bit of road much this season. How much is that Spain DNF going to cost Bottas?

McLaren's race pace has lifted the spirits somewhat. There was a tenth in it between Stoffel and the Williams/Force India cars. Again a 1-stop makes it a little complicated to read, but McLaren tended to lose a shed load of time to the rest of the midfield in the 1st stint and even more when the fuel loads get lighter. Glad to see it was not like that in this race where the power sensitivity is still quite high. I'm just going to sit back and watch Alonso race this thing for the rest of the year.

Funniest thing at this race goes to DC berating a McLaren driver taking weird lines when defending to Ricciardo, only to be told who it was and then back pedalling promptly. Watch and learn. The master at work.

[Dr Z]

l354uge said:

angrymoby said:

Ferrari have been fading since Monaco, with Merc winning 3 out of the last 4 (should've been all 4) & Seb's points tally had been flattering them tbh ...not entirely sure they'll still be in it by Abu Dhabi, or that Seb will even bag 2nd- hope i'm wrong

Few hotter tracks coming soon, which favours the Ferrari. Hungary will be the true test to see A. if merc have pulled away from Ferrari B. Red bull and McLaren really have a great chassis.

IMO, I would put Hungary in Merc territory but I expect it to be much closer than Silverstone in qualifying and race. If Merc dominate in Hungary as they did at this race, Ferrari will have reason to be properly worried. And you know what happens when they are worried.

Vettel will have to sit tight, bring in error free performances from his side. If he's still within 15-20 points of the guy leading the WDC by Suzuka, it will be possible to fight till the end, IMO as I can see the Ferrari being competitive in Brazil/Abu Dhabi. It's turning out to be a fascinating year.

Hungary will be the only time for the rest of this year I'm expecting McLaren to qualify top 10, so they will have to capitalise on that and score points to take 9th back from Sauber. The rest of the tracks they should be qualifying near to the front of Q2 and hopefully pick up a point or two at best in the race (if the car holds up).

The average finishing position of the top 3 this year so far is:

Vettel=2.6
Hamilton=2.8
Bottas=2.67

Dug some of these figures from an old spread sheet. Some drivers (since 1981) who averaged similar in the 1st half of the Championship and how they did in the 2nd half:

Year	Driver	1st	2nd
1982	Niki Lauda	2.5	4.2
1983	Nelson Piquet	2.6	2
1984	Alain Prost	2.7	1
1986	Alain Prost	2.6	2.5
1987	Nigel Mansell	2.8	4
1991	Riccardo Patrese	2.8	3.1
1993	Michael Schumacher	2.6	1.8
1995	David Coulthard	2.8	2
2000	David Coulthard	2.6	3.1
2000	Mika Häkkinen	2.7	1.9
2001	David Coulthard	2.8	3
2001	Ralf Schumacher	2.8	3.8
2003	Kimi Räikkönen	2.6	2.8
2004	Rubens Barrichello	2.8	3.5
2006	Michael Schumacher	2.6	2.5
2015	Nico Rosberg	2.5	1.9
2016	Lewis Hamilton	2.6	1.7
2016	Nico Rosberg	2.7	1.9

Bolded were Champions that year.

Edited by Dr Z on Tuesday 18th July 12:53