Red Bull Vs Ferarri

[TheDeuce]

We started this season with a supposed Merc v Ferrari 'battle'. But Ferrari have effectively won that battle (for Mercedes..).

Red bull v Ferrari though? That's starting to play out very nicely. The points won't reflect how close the two teams are this season, not with Gasly's performance - but the hard truth is that in their Ferrari's, niether driver has been able to out-perform Max and exceed his points tally. On paper at least, Ferrari are far closer to Red Bull than they are to Mercedes. We're it not for Gasly they would be in a somewhat desperate fight with Red Bull just to secure second in the WCC.

Do we think Max can end the season ahead of either Ferrari driver? Is this a true challenge or just some luck and circumstance?

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AllyBassman said:

Max seems to be able to keep himself in a position to pick up the pieces when Ferrari are off the boil with reliability or tactics. Not wanting to take anything away from him or RB, but Ferrari do have the quicker car (when they get it right!)

Luck and circumstance i'd say.

I don't think he will finish ahead of either of them, but we have plenty or races to go and anything is possible!

I'm also on the fence right now. I think through the course of the season so far the red bull is quicker in general than I expected, sometimes surprisingly so. In Austria they were crazy quick for the final laps because they turned the power to '11'. Is that representative of the real race pace of their car? Well, it didn't go bang and honda were at the race and must have concluded it would cope - I imagine that shows the potential for the car to get a full time power increase later this season.

It's probably headed to be close enough to Ferrari speed to make up the difference in terms of corner speed and general handling. I expect it'll be so close overall that luck and circumstance could easily swing the result either way...

Ferrari will end second this season come what may. On merit though, I'm not sure they're demonstrating and real advantage over red bull so far

[TheDeuce]

Nigel_O said:

My guess is that Max will be ahead of both Ferrari drivers in the WDC, but Ferrari will be ahead of Red Bull Racing in the WCC. Gasly's lack of performance will probably cost Red Bull second in the WCC (unless he's replaced PDQ with someone exceptional)

I'm not a Verstappen fan, but its difficult to argue against his change of fortune this year - as well as the obvious gains from the power unit, Max seems to have matured, with less of the questionable race decisions he used to make. The raw racing instinct is still there though, which is what will set him apart from a driver who is merely "good"

Red Bull clearly won't beat Ferrari in WCC, I don't think anyone see's that as a possibilty at this stage...

Max could does have a very realistic chance of besting either or both Ferrari drivers in the WDC though. The fact that Red Bull now can't take second in the WCC doesn't mean the Ferrari is the better car this year though - Red Bull are effectively handicapped by Gasly sadly.

[TheDeuce]

ajprice said:

https://twitter.com/tgruener/status/11531918462748...
(Article in the Twitter link is in German, Chrome will auto translate it.)

Other teams think Ferrari have a 40bhp advantage in qualifying that isn't there in the race. Mercedes did some maths based on GPS data. At Silverstone Ferraris overtaking Red Bulls was a struggle (not including Vettel's bumper cars in this), but Red Bull easily had the speed to overtake Ferrari. It might be Ferrari updates concentrating on downforce, it might be something weird. They can't change the car between quali and race, so why don't they have the straight line speed on a Sunday?

Possibly they have data from the engine which suggests it's too risky to run for more than the odd fast quali lap in clean air, and have subsequently locked away the extra power in race modes?

40bhp isn't actually a dramatic amount in any case. Possibly they do lose some power in race modes, but I think the overall speed reduction since pre-season has simply been down to them trying to enhance downforce. They started with a very fast, slippery car - add further downforce to that car and all that can happen is a reduction in straight line speed.

[TheDeuce]

SturdyHSV said:

If Gasly manages to finish sensibly and Vettel can be relied on to crash in 50% of the upcoming races (not beyond the realms of possibility unfortunately) it's not totally off the cards for RBR to come 2nd in the WCC.

I expect it's going to end up a lot closer by the end of the season given the inevitable pace of RB development compared to Ferrari, but yes it does somewhat hinge on Gasly's performances really.

I think that despite Gasly apparently identifying and removing whatever was stuck beneath his throttle peddle, it is still beyond the realms of reasonable to predict them coming second this year.

I do agree they will get closer though, and I'm all but certain post summer break they will have a power increase - the reliability of the PU (even when pushed 'to 11' for half a race..) has been amazing, that's a pretty sure sign that it has more to give.

This year? Meh, it hardly matters. What does matter is that next year, if Gasly is either up to speed or replaced, then they will be battling Ferrari for second all the way. Which is exactly the sort of battle we need to strengthen a season where, in all probability, the dominant top team will be Mercedes once again.

[TheDeuce]

SturdyHSV said:

Agreed it's perhaps a little unreasonable to predict it, but if SV and CLC are fighting over number 1 spot, given Seb's unfortunate 'crashy' form, one not totally unreasonable double DNF and an RB 3rd / 4th is all that's really needed to properly heat things up...

Realistically if Gasly performs consistently it'll be a lot of trading of 3/4/5/6 positions for the rest of the season amongst the two teams (under the assumption Merc 1/2 everything) so my fingers are crossed at least

I think vettel will actually get less crashy as he slips further back. In a way, being far enough out of contention for a title or even a second actually takes the pressure off and with nothing to lose he may well perform better.

I think what you're speculating is a combined uprising of Gasly and a continued deterioration of Vettel. I can't see both happening to the extent it could swing the standings in the WCC but I wouldn't complain at all if it did

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95 fiesta si said:

might be an opportunity for Redbull to pull in some points over Ferrari at the German GP, maybe they could be on for 2nd in the championship

It's a huge gulf to make up to battle for second.

But regardless, Max was very good today. Ferrari also managed to f*ck up both drivers chances again, which is always nice for team Red Bull.

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95 fiesta si said:

agreed, big ask but possible, especially now Gasly has woken up.

If he can maintain his new found pace without 'incidents' in between good result, maybe. Just maybe..

It would be a stunning result for sure. Followed by a record number of sackings at Marenello no doubt.

[TheDeuce]

LaurasOtherHalf said:

I think you underestimate VET if you think GAS can outperform him over a season at present.

Not sure if that was directed at me - I personally don't think Gasly is on the same level.

I do think that if Gasly can maintain around 80% of Max's performance, then Max could in theory do enough for the team to seriously challenge Ferrari - the points back that up.

Although to be honest, that's more due to Ferrari as a team struggling rather than either driver. Seb has clearly made a few mistakes this year, but nowhere near as many as his team.

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LaurasOtherHalf said:

Just a comment in the spirit of the conversation. VET get's bad press on PH, sometimes well deserved but it doesn't change the fact that for me he's one of the best three drivers on the grid at present.

He's not in a position to show off his personal skills in this year's Ferrari but I'd still put him above GAS in the RB-Honda.

I also get the feeling that RD-Honda are throwing everything they have at the VER show but that's another story...

Tricky one seb.. I think he has way more talent than he gets credit for. He also has a pretty major achilles heel in the form of faltering under pressure. In many ways Ferrari is about the worst team for him in that regard. It hardly matters now though, I get the feeling he's over the pressures of F1 in general now and has other life goals in mind.

As for RB propping up Max - I think they do want 'the Max show', they're all about putting on a show. But in spite of any advantage he might be given, he's driving superbly this season in my opinion. He's as close to 'too aggressive' at this stage as it's possible to be without truly being too aggressive. Maybe the sport needs a little bit of that. Splitting the Mercedes today was impressive for sure.

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Supersam83 said:

ajprice said:

Ferrari admit their problem this year is lack of downforce, they designed it that way and they shouldn't have. https://www.autosport.com/f1/news/145396/ferrari-a...

Yes and hopefully this will be rectified as they have said that they are going to change the design direction for next years car to be more like the Mercedes and Red Bull concepts of high downforce.

Just imagine an evolution of this years Ferrari engine and the right chassis concept for next year! Ferrari will finally be back.

Shame they will catch up with Mercedes just as the rules will change and reset everything back to zero.

The problem is, that their current advantage is in top speed, they're tough to beat on fast tracks. But they supposedly have no horsepower advantage to Mercedes, quite possibly a small deficit - they're just crazy fast because of low down-force. And who knows what power the Honda PU achieves? Whatever it is I expect a revised unit for the second half of the season and from what we have seen on track, they can already just about hold their own against the Merc's, certainly close enough to be a nuisance.

So Ferrari will add more down force and lose their straight speed advantage? Swapping one advantage for another, but they don't have a seasons data and experience of running high down-force so I can't see how they can expect to make a better job of that philosophy then Merc or Red Bull. They won't know how their car handles the tyres with high down-force until testing next year.

I think it's the right move for them to make. I also think it's very unlikely they will better whatever Merc and Red Bull come back with next year. Mercedes have already totally nailed high down-force and Red Bull have been used to it for years. Tough nut to crack, but obviously having the 'fastest car' wasn't working so I understand the need for change.

[TheDeuce]

janesmith1950 said:

They were expected to walk Monza last year...and didn't manage it.

If the other two's low downforce configs are very efficient, it be be they're better than Ferrari in a straight line, too. And potentially with better traction out of the chicanes.

This is the thing.. in theory these are Ferrari tracks, and that is the common view we're expected to subscribe too. But I think this season has shown two new things so far:

1) in low downforce prep the Mercedes is at least almost as fast, and handles it's tyres better. So whilst a potential Ferrari win remains possible, it will likely not ever be easy.

2) even if Ferrari do have an outright advantage in mechanical terms, so far this season they have ruined their own chances in some way at least 50% of the time.

I would love to see a straight race at Monza, with no strategy or other silly cock ups from Ferrari. Just a straight race and to how fast the Ferrari really is through the course of a full race. Tbh, I think the answer would be that on paper the Ferrari should win, but in reality the Merc deficit is pretty slim and propably compensated for by their better control of tyre wear.

Red bull are also proving capable of surviving races whilst running engine modes and power I don't think they thought they could sustain pre season. They're also close each time - I think the days of 'fastest car on paper wins fast circuit' are over. There is no easy/predictable win for Ferrari right now, even on their ideal tracks they will need to be flawless and fight for it.

Good season so far

[TheDeuce]

sparta6 said:

Spa and Monza could be very tight between Merc and Ferrari and Max

Nah Monza is Ferrari's home race, they'll find a way to screw it up.

[TheDeuce]

I thought it might be time to resurrect this thread - the first GP is now just around the corner and Ferrari v Red Bull is perhaps one of the most interesting aspects of this season.

Supposedly Ferrari's previous PU advantage before the FIA semi-scandal shut it down was 30bhp quali, 20bhp race. That's almost certainly gone now, and in response Ferrari have changed direction to focus on aero performance over straight line speed.

It's likely that Ferrari will struggle to get on top of that new philosophy straight away, pre-season testing ended with them being far from happy and they now have a short season to make the new car work. If ever there was an opportunity bought to Red Bulls doorstep, this season could be it. Ferrari are also now 'stuck' with a Vettel that doesn't exactly need to play ball, and can likely only be controlled setting his car/race at a disadvantage - not good for WCC points.

So, my bold prediction: Red Bull second in WCC this season. The bookies seem to agree too

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KevinCamaroSS said:

Certainly second, but not third. Max would win both Red Bull Ring races with Lewis second. But I am also sure they will be prepared for that.

Agree. No reason to think Merc would lose to Ferrari here, but certainly possible they could lose to Red Bull.

That said, Red Bull typically improve through a season, and this is race one.. so overall, if I were to bet, it would be on Merc still.

Edited by TheDeuce on Thursday 18th June 17:46

Edited by TheDeuce on Thursday 18th June 17:47

[TheDeuce]

HustleRussell said:

Ferrari built a rocket ship last year as they had a big engine advantage for most of the season but probably underestimated the potential downforce within the 2019 regs and set too low a benchmark.

However their engine power was noticeably hobbled during the closing part of the season as the FIA began to take an interest.



What is interesting is we are yet to see how the FIA's investigation of Ferrari since then has further affected their PU.

What is more interesting still is that we are yet to see how the integration of those learnings in the 2020 regs will affect the other engine builders.

However we can be certain that Ferrari have massively increased their downforce targets for this year, so will their car deliver lap time in a similar way to Mercedes and Red Bull, i.e. less circuit specific and more of an all-rounder, and what are the chances of them striking that balance correctly having made such a big change in philosophy and with the added curveball of reduced engine power?

For me the dream is that the engines are even closer in performance for the beginning of 2020 than they were at the end of 2019 due to the new regulations. Unfortunately with their ace card gone the battle for Ferrari is then who can produce the most 'clean' downforce and the best chassis, and I suspect that Ferrari will lag behind Mercedes and Red Bull in these areas.

We have seen in recent years with McLaren and Williams what happens when a team tries to drastically increase downforce. It tends to result in a draggy car. I think this explains the long faces in Barcelona.

That's all pretty much word for word what binotto said in Barcelona. And then the following day when asked if it was 'sandbagging' he got quite animated and reiterated that they really aren't happy, and the car is draggy - they have problems.

I think it's against the Ferrari Bible to ever publicly criticise their own cars, unless it's totally unavoidable. And at the time, just a couple of weeks from the first GP, there was nowhere to hide.

I think Mercedes and Red Bull have simply taken aero trickery to a higher level. Without a sizeable power advantage, I can't see Ferrari balancing that - at least not without spending considerably more time and effort on their own aero in order to catch up. Not just aero either, just look at what Mercedes are doing with their suspension and steering dynamics in recent years... They've made it hugely complex. At least Red Bull have the natural instinct of Newey to keep up.. who do Ferrari have?

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The conversation was about whether or not they had decided upon a higher downforce concept for this years car at a time before they had been nobbled for 'whatever' they were doing to get the extra power.

That really has nothing to do with the fact that they also tried to improve downforce on their 2019 car as the season progressed. They had simply overshot on their low drag philosophy last year and ended up with an unstable car - they had gone too far. As the season progressed and as more downforce sensitive circuits came, they naturally tried to improve downforce.

That is totally different from starting 2020 with a high downforce concept. Adding downforce to a car designed to be slippery was always going to be inefficient... With a car designed that way from the ground up however, the potential is there for a far better result. Sadly (possibly fairly), they have lost a chunk of their power advantage and also appear based on testing to not have done a very good job of the new concept.

Frankly, even before testing I thought and posted they would struggle to beat RB this year, purely because they had lost their 'extra power' and in an aero race vs RB it seemed very unlikely they would win. Since then they have themselves said the results of the new design are poor and draggy, they have a driver that won't play ball this season and they have less time than expected to make improvements. At this point they have enough stacked against them for this year to be a bit of a write off.. I expect within a few races, unless something really surprising happens, they'll start talking about this season in terms of development and learning over above hopes of being competitive in championship terms.

[TheDeuce]

Deesee said:

HustleRussell said:

Back to the drawing board for Ferrari, The car they turned up to testing with will see two race weekends at Austria and a significantly reworked version will arrive in Hungary

They’ve got to do something, this is the car for 2021 as well, otherwise it could be two seasons not being competitive.

There’s no wind tunnel testing until Jan for the ‘22 cars so there’s plenty of time to get the SF1000 right.

I just made that same point on the Ferrari thread. Yup, they have one last shot and that's it for this season and next. This thread is almost redundant now - if Ferrari are stuck in a 'bad car' for the first two races, that's a massive chunk of such a short season. Unless RB have some serious issues then Ferrari are down in 3rd in WCC this season, with not even really a fighting chance anymore. Maybe lower if Tracing Point manage to prove that copying is the best way to get top marks!

Ferrari really do struggle with aero don't they?

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Apparently red bull (Honda) will have a PU upgrade (power and reliability again) in time for the first GP. That's quite significant because as I understand it, once the season is underway major PU upgrades will be frozen, albeit with tweaking allowed in certain areas.

Mercedes too will have their own update. By contrast, Ferrari say they won't.. which effectively means they will end this season with whatever PU performance they had back in pre-season testing.

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HustleRussell said:

I don’t think that’s true, I believe that if they turn up in Austria with V1.0 of their 2020 PU they will have one or possibly two opportunities to introduce a new spec without penalty depending on how many races there are.

I might be wrong - I thought the in season updates were limited to mgu-k, control electronics and combustion tweaks (to suit fuel updates). Is that wrong?