Brexit will change the mix of cars sold in the UK.

[Olivergt]

Big changes coming next year when manufacturers have to have an average CO2 figure for cars sold in the UK of 95gm, they are currently running at 127gm, but get away with it, because the rest of the EU is included when working out the average. Next year the UK will be on it's own when calculating the average.

https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/cars-co2...

However you look at it, it will either mean less models for sale or higher prices for the higher polluting models.

[Olivergt]

I originally saw the same report in the Guardian, can't find that one though.

In the Guardian article it specifically mentions that the UK has signed up to the 95gm average in the UK, per manufacturer.

And yes this is a bad thing, previously the average was across the EU, which meant that all the small (low CO2) cars sold in France/Italy/Other meant that the UK could continue to buy the larger SUV (higher CO2) cars that the UK prefers.

Next year this will have to change to bring the average down or manufacturers will incur heavy fines.

Here is another article on the same subject that might get a bit more respect:

https://www.autocar.co.uk/opinion/industry/opinion...

[Olivergt]

RogerDodger said:

95JO said:

RogerDodger said:

A) and that's a bad thing?
B) it's the "independent".

A) Yes, if you're the average PH'er
B) Don't people say similar about every newspaper? Could you tell me the appropriate newspaper to read, please?

Whatever paper suits you, just, relevant to the article, the independent is hugely pro-remain (rabid anti Brexit) and I am not exaggerating in any way.

Don't shoot the messenger, the article contains facts about what will happen next year with regards to Brexit and average CO2 values for the UK, and the possible implications for UK car sales.

Facts are not dependent upon the person/paper providing them, they stand or fall on their own merits.

Here is a link to the UK Government documentation on the changes:

http://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2019/550/pdfs/u...


Section 12 outlines any impacts that the government can envisage:

12. Impact
12.1 There is no significant impact on business, charities or voluntary bodies.
12.2 There is no significant impact on the public sector.
12.3 An Impact Assessment has not been prepared for this instrument because the costs and
benefits to business are expected to fall below £5m in any one calendar year. The
instrument maintains existing regulatory standards for CO2 emissions from newly
registered cars and vans in the UK, so will not impose any additional regulatory
burden at the point of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU.
12.4 When the formulae are updated as required by the legislation, and the average mass
figure in the formulae reflects a UK average rather than an EU average, economic
models indicate that increasing uptake of electric vehicles through the early 2020s
will allow manufacturers to meet the new targets without any additional economic
burden.

Looking at 12.4, it seems to be saying that if electric car sales reach the expected targets there won't be an impact, so we will have to wait and see if electric car sales meet the required targets.

Edited by Olivergt on Wednesday 22 January 15:55

[Olivergt]

RogerDodger said:

I'm merely saying exercise caution when reading a paper with an extreme leaning. "Maybes" become "certains". "Nos" become "maybe nots" etc.

Agree entirely, I try not to take things on a first reading, and generally do a little more research to confirm what is being written before repeating it.

And although I put Brexit in the title, I deliberately tried to keep it factual, rather than putting forward my personal thoughts on the matter.

Now, back to the topic:

I think you are going to see some manufacturers use quotas, someone mentioned that Mazda might be doing this? Some will hike the price of the more polluting models, or simply stop selling them in the UK.

The main reason I brought it up, was that it is most definitely an unintended consequence of Brexit. It wasn't part of any discussion that I heard, there was never a "If you vote leave, you know it will impact car sales in the UK, are you ok with that?" mentioned by anyone...

[Olivergt]

Terminator X said:

markyb_lcy said:

Who said we couldn’t survive?

As for those countries who we will make deals with that aren’t about protectionism, who are you thinking of? USA? China? Surely not.

Protectionism is on the rise globally. At the same time, we leave the biggest free trade area in the world.

If only it had stayed like that when we first joined

I'll eat my hat if we don't get a good or free trade deal with Europe, do you think the Germans want to stop selling us cars?

TX.

Don't forget, it matters not one iota what kind of deal the UK gets with the EU, the average will still be on UK only cars, so the basic point stands, car sales in the UK will be changing, probably for the worst, in terms of choice next year.

[Olivergt]

markyb_lcy said:

kurokawa said:

PH is just lovely, isn’t it
Always someone will turn motoring into politic and even worse, into a brexit fighting thread.
If we are signed up to commit those emissions I afraid not only SUV would be disappearing(personally love to see SUV gone) but I believe performance 2 seaters might be pull out as well.

It’s a discussion, not a fight.

Exactly, I deliberately tried to simply lay out the facts and the consequences for discussion.

I find that if you stick to the facts and reality, the logical conclusions fall out at the end, and can't be argued with, getting emotive about remain or leave serves no purpose and just annoys people.

So let's keep the discussion going, but stick to facts that you can support with evidence.

FACT: At the moment CO2 figures for each manufacturer are averaged across the whole EU and must be less than 95g or penalties are applied. - Evidence - this is easy to find (see the linky for fact 3 to start with)

FACT: Come 2021 the UK has agreed that it will average on UK Sales only, which must be less than 95g or penalties are applied. Note, this may change but it is the current position of the government. - Evidence - see previously linked government PDF

FACT: Average UK car sales CO2 figure (2018) is 124.5g. - Evidence - https://www.smmt.co.uk/reports/co2-report/

CONCLUSION: The types of cars, with regard to their CO2 values, sold in the UK will have to change in 2021 to ensure they meet the 95g target or penalties will be applied.

[Olivergt]

meatballs said:

Policy seems bit poorly thought out.

They want to reduce CO2 but aren't targeting the source of the CO2 - the petrol/diesel coming out of the pumps.

A 500g/km vehicle is less polluting than a 96g/km car if it is rarely used.

I suspect raising taxes on fuel wouldn't go down with anyone's voter base though.

(I'm also a bit bitter that I pay full VED on a car that does hardly any miles...)

Agreed.

Taxes are aimed at your "Ability to pollute" not your "Actual pollution". Until this mindset changes, we are going to fail to reduce CO2.

Why should someone pay heavily for having a 500g/km car if they only drive 1,000 miles a year. When repmobile man in his Mondeo doing 30k miles a year gets let off because his car only does 80g/km, when in reality he is polluting a lot more.

If I was in charge, I would move, over time, to putting any taxes completely on the fuel, this then makes those who pollute more, pay more, which has to be the best way to try and get people to reduce their pollution?

[Olivergt]

Suzuki are making changes.

https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...

Wonder who is next?

I'm going to see if I can get the averages for each manufacturer to see who is likely to be most affected.

[Olivergt]

Terminator X said:

Olivergt said:

Big changes coming next year when manufacturers have to have an average CO2 figure for cars sold in the UK of 95gm, they are currently running at 127gm, but get away with it, because the rest of the EU is included when working out the average. Next year the UK will be on it's own when calculating the average.

https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/cars-co2...

However you look at it, it will either mean less models for sale or higher prices for the higher polluting models.

Why can't the UK tell the EU to fk off and invent our own rules or is this where you reveal gleefully that "yes YOU voted for it!" ...

TX.

It can, the UK can do exactly that, have it's own rules and regulations and specs for cars.

The biggest problem with that is that they will only be able to sell them in the UK as they won't meet the EU rules and regulations.

So they can if they wish start making cars to 2 different specs, one for the UK only market, and one for the EU market.

Or, they can continue to follow EU rules and regulations, so they only need to manufacture to one spec.

I'm pretty certain I know what the manufacturers would want.

P.S. the above scenario applies to all products produced in the UK, if they want to sell to the EU they will have to meet EU standards. So the UK is absolutely free to define and implement it's own rules and regulation, but the reality is it will more than likely match the EU ones for the sake of being able to trade with the EU.

P.P.S. Now that the UK is out of the EU, they have to blindly follow the EU Rules and Regulations if they want to sell to the EU, previously they had a big influence and could steer the Rules and Regulations in their preferred direction.

[Olivergt]

Just found some interesting information on UK/EU Standards:

18. Manufacturing: After 1 January 2022, manufacturers will need to meet two different standards and will have to label products UKCA for the home market, and CE for those exported to the EU, adding costs to certification, manufacturing and stocking.

So more paperwork coming down the line, explicitly linked to Brexit.

This was taken from the following web site:

https://yorkshirebylines.co.uk/the-davis-downside-...

This also has some interesting commentary:

https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2021/01/d...

[Olivergt]

sasha320 said:

Debaser said:

What happens if not enough people in the UK want to buy low CO2 cars? How will they get the average down?

That’s the point of the legislation.

The likely outcome will be the higher CO2 producing cars will increase in price to "encourage" people to buy lower CO2 cars.

The thing that Brexit added was:

Pre Brexit : The average CO2 was taken from the cars sold in the whole of the EU.
Post Brexit : The average is taken from the cars only sold in the UK.

The reason this is a problem is historiclly the UK bought quite a lot of high CO2 cars compared to countries like France, where a lot of low CO2 cars are purchased.