Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?

[Vroomer]

During the 2008 financial crisis used car prices fell like a stone before recovering in 2009.

Do you think the current Coronavirus crisis will have a similar impact?

[Vroomer]

Riley Blue said:

lee_erm said:

Angela Merkel has suggested 2/3 of Germans could contract COVID-19. The current mortality rate in Italy is I think above 5%. I'd say yes if we're talking worst case infection scenarios.

Wrong thread, this one is about used car prices.

Thank you!

[Vroomer]

av185 said:

The new car market will essentially grind to a halt resulting in a severe shortage of quality used stock.

This has been apparant through Jan Feb and March as quality used 3 year old cars have risen in value up to 10%.

To counteract this rise and going forward buyers will have less to spend and confidence will take a hit so broadly strong prices will be maintained and there won't be the bargains around some are hoping for.

As ever the best cars will command the best prices both mainstream and high end.

This not what happened in the 2008 financial crisis – used prices collapsed and took a year to recover. I don't see why this is different.

[Vroomer]

Lord Marylebone said:

I’m still on the Porsche forums, and it is what can only be described as a bloodbath, and that’s just been the pre-virus price falls.

Have you got a link? Can't see a bloodbath on Pistonheads Porsche forum.

[Vroomer]

WBAC price on one of my cars down 10% in one week.

[Vroomer]

MrNoisy said:

WBAC valuation down 25% on the one 8 days ago, glad i'm not a pressured seller (yet).

What car?

[Vroomer]

I keep seeing the term 'CAP clean' – what does that mean? Thanks.

[Vroomer]

OddCat said:

This Coronavirus thing is suddenly going to blow over and we'll all be wondering "what the hell was that all about?"

on? planet are you Which

I invite other posters to re-order the above!

Speechless!

[Vroomer]

There's been some disappointing abuse. Can we get back on topic? Thanks.

[Vroomer]

CRA1G said:

All BCA Auctions are closed from Thursday until further notice with only online sales to registered bidders taking place....

Is that for public health reasons or because stock not selling?

[Vroomer]

Backtobasics said:

Would it be possible for someone "attending" car auctions to report back on a sample of what they are going for against expectation?

A couple of high end cars, Porsche, Range Rover etc

Mid range, BMW, Mercedes

Run around - KIA, Ford

We had a great thread many years ago where someone did this, I'd be interested to put some fact to the noise. Plus it keeps my mind off being "strongly advised to not do" most of the things I actually enjoy currently!

Great idea.

(I remember the thread you mention.)

[Vroomer]

Wooda80 said:

...in the absence of any bids around the cars 'last week' value then the vendor might decide to sit on the stock until values show a recovery rather than realise the loss.

Only if vendors desperately need the cash flow will cars actually be sold for silly money. If this happens it all then it won't be likely to happen for another 3-6 months if trading doesn't recover.

Have you seen the news? Who would want to sit on stock when all the indications are things are going to get worse for a long time yet.

[Vroomer]

ChocolateFrog said:

The guy who owns Pendle Performance (a place that does remaps) put a post up a few weeks ago about how he doesn't believe in normal pensions and has a fleet of cars that he's bought as investments for his retirement.

I did think at the time that sounded like lunacy, it seems even madder now.

I can imagine the cost of storing and maintaining a fleet of ageing supercars and classics isn't free, not even getting the pleasure out of driving them just seems insane to me.

Classic and supercars went into the stratosphere in the booming late 1980s then fell to earth in the 1990s after the recession. It took them 20 years to recover (by recover, I mean achieve the ridiculous prices we've seen in recent years).

If the latest situation mirrors the past, your man is going to have to wait 20 years to break even on his 'pension pot'.

[Vroomer]

jamoor said:

People don't sell stuff at a loss, it doesn't make business sense.

Nobody willingly sells at a loss, but you can't buck the market.

[Vroomer]

jamoor said:

RUSSELLM said:

So a car dealer that’s been stuck with a piece of stock for months on end, never sells a vehicle at a loss ?

Have I got that right ?

Edited by RUSSELLM on Monday 23 March 13:05

Exception not the rule.

Would you not agree we are in exceptional times?

[Vroomer]

Going to look at a used car will presumably not count as an essential journey.

[Vroomer]

I had been looking at the new Suzuki Jimmy as a fun car. Entire 2020 stock had been sold out and people were asking £5-10k premiums for delivery mileage cars (some still are) but lots appearing now at list.

[Vroomer]

braddo said:

A great recovery wasn't coming (Brexit cliff edge at the end of 2020 creates far too much uncertainty) but it was certainly looking far better than it is now.

Behind the 2 world wars this might be the biggest unforseen 'black swan' event the world has seen, for the past couple of hundred years at least.

The build up to the world wars was quite long; Coronavirus has hit us like a rocket.

[Vroomer]

Interesting statistic:

At around 10.00am today their were 531k cars listed on Autotrader.

At around 2.30pm today there were 532k cars listed on Autotrader.

So that's an increase of 1,000 cars in just over 4 hours at a time when people aren't meant't to be making inessential journeys.

What do you make of that?

[Vroomer]

gizlaroc said:

Vroomer said:

Interesting statistic:

At around 10.00am today their were 531k cars listed on Autotrader.

At around 2.30pm today there were 532k cars listed on Autotrader.

So that's an increase of 1,000 cars in just over 4 hours at a time when people aren't meant't to be making inessential journeys.

What do you make of that?

I would guess that with dealerships closed and online sales only allowed we should see the numbers on autotrader grow like mad.
Many main dealers don't put all their stock on autotrader.
BMW often have dozens of a certain model on their AUC site that are not listed on Autotrader.
I bet now they are throwing money at the online side far more.

Up again to 534k cars today. Presumably indicates nothing selling and more cars be added in desperation.

Going out to look at cars (or collect if bought online) is not one of the Government's reasons for leaving home.