ICE ban clouds on the horizon. Are you out?
Discussion
ICE ban clouds on the horizon. Are you out?
As the ICE car ban is now gathering pace and the government is clearly investing politically more and more in the new green future, is the demise of the combustion engine affecting your decision in buying a new car as 2030 looms closer?
Having recently retired and looking forward to getting something a little special that I have always promised myself, I am now pondering the wisdom of splashing the cash on an expensive performance car for varying reasons. Namely, the following:-
Rising running costs (VED, fuel taxation as the ban hoves into sight etc)
Government mission creep (they've already brought the ban forward what next?)
ULEZ zone expansion
Public demonisation
Resulting disastrous depreciation
From what I am reading, the electric revolution is coming faster than I thought and is now clearly unstoppable and there are no EVs that really appeal whether it's lack of range or styling or lack of soul and noise.
Thought about leasing or PCPing to mitigate some of the above but have always preferred to buy out right for a longer ownership proposition.
Thinking about the what if 's above is curtailing my enthusiasm for a new car to the point I feel as though I cant commit to a purchase and I am going to abandon the whole idea!
So in light of the above I'm turning to PH to get people's thoughts on the current state of play and where we are going with all of this and anyone with a crystal ball who could shine a light on future residuals maybe from some of our salesmen on here?
In fact, I would find it interesting into some insight as to how the trade see the transition.
Anyone having similar thoughts or hesitations?
Over to you guys and many thanks in advance.
As the ICE car ban is now gathering pace and the government is clearly investing politically more and more in the new green future, is the demise of the combustion engine affecting your decision in buying a new car as 2030 looms closer?
Having recently retired and looking forward to getting something a little special that I have always promised myself, I am now pondering the wisdom of splashing the cash on an expensive performance car for varying reasons. Namely, the following:-
Rising running costs (VED, fuel taxation as the ban hoves into sight etc)
Government mission creep (they've already brought the ban forward what next?)
ULEZ zone expansion
Public demonisation
Resulting disastrous depreciation
From what I am reading, the electric revolution is coming faster than I thought and is now clearly unstoppable and there are no EVs that really appeal whether it's lack of range or styling or lack of soul and noise.
Thought about leasing or PCPing to mitigate some of the above but have always preferred to buy out right for a longer ownership proposition.
Thinking about the what if 's above is curtailing my enthusiasm for a new car to the point I feel as though I cant commit to a purchase and I am going to abandon the whole idea!
So in light of the above I'm turning to PH to get people's thoughts on the current state of play and where we are going with all of this and anyone with a crystal ball who could shine a light on future residuals maybe from some of our salesmen on here?
In fact, I would find it interesting into some insight as to how the trade see the transition.
Anyone having similar thoughts or hesitations?
Over to you guys and many thanks in advance.
neutral 3 said:
You Only live Once........
Buy that car of your dreams and enjoy it !!
The classic car and bike movement in Blighty alone, is Huge, it generates £££££ fortunes each year. Petrol or diesel won’t disappear over night.
wow neutral 3, your vettes take me back to when I was in my twenties and a dealer I bought a car off had a tulip back in white which sounded incredible and was so foreign and exotic back in the eighties. It was always great to hear it rumble by!Buy that car of your dreams and enjoy it !!
The classic car and bike movement in Blighty alone, is Huge, it generates £££££ fortunes each year. Petrol or diesel won’t disappear over night.
GM182 said:
I see where the OP is coming from but as a retirement purchase with a long ownership in play I wouldn't worry about depreciation too much. As others have already said, the difficulties of owning a non-efficient ICE will only increase.
But that makes now an ideal time to buy...plenty of recent cars with some analogue characteristics that will last 10 years more with normal maintenance. Even after 2030 they won't be banned for years and if it's something special it won't be a daily driver.
Mines an AMG C63 thanks.
Makes sense GM, special non daily should keep me interested and won't break the bank! I've just got to choose carefully but not easy as no proper freedom to test drive all I want to try with lockdown. So it's going to be a special pampered thing as I have other cars for daily.But that makes now an ideal time to buy...plenty of recent cars with some analogue characteristics that will last 10 years more with normal maintenance. Even after 2030 they won't be banned for years and if it's something special it won't be a daily driver.
Mines an AMG C63 thanks.
AMG C63 appeals. Saloon or coupe?
thiscocks said:
If you think the car industry will accept being not allowed to produce an ICE vehicle in less than 10 years you are as deluded as the government.
Hi thiscocks,That's not what I am saying at all. Read my first post.
Of course I am aware that the ban is for NEW cars and old ICE will be run for many years after that if not decades of more.
I am actually amazed that the government has apparently committed to the 2030 date much to the incredulity of the car industry themselves and they are now under immense pressure to deliver and are going to find it difficult to achieve. So difficult in fact that I think we will see the demise of some marques.
What I am questioning is it worth "investing" in an expensive performance car to be kicked in the balls by collapsing residuals and demonisation of "the old smokers" once the mAjority of public perception changes and re-educated the government, green lobby and press.
Edited by Down on the Farm on Friday 5th February 21:44
Kawasicki said:
Best news ever for the car industry. Your IC car is now obsolete, buy a new EV, today!
Exactly Kawasicki!salesman: Come have a look at our new EVs, endorsed by and mandated by our wonderful enlightened government!
Now what have you got in part ex - er
Errr it's a quaint old 3.0 twin turbo -
oh dear, never mind, I think we can dispose of it for you!
996Type said:
It may also work out that you can choose any shape of car you want and fit it with electric underpinnings.
3D print a Lamborghini Miura faster and better handling than the real thing and just play the V12 track inside the cabin.
10 years down the road and we’ll all be driving leccy F40’s but with none of the risk of getting burned to a crisp or service costs that exceed the cost of your house??
In fact, keep the engine and just run compressed air through them to make the same noise, but propulsion provided by electrons.....
Like your style 996, you may hAve a thing there!3D print a Lamborghini Miura faster and better handling than the real thing and just play the V12 track inside the cabin.
10 years down the road and we’ll all be driving leccy F40’s but with none of the risk of getting burned to a crisp or service costs that exceed the cost of your house??
In fact, keep the engine and just run compressed air through them to make the same noise, but propulsion provided by electrons.....
Have been watching Vintage Voltage so maybe strip out the old lump when it becomes non viable and stitch in an electric motor and strap a few batteries in - job done - will see me out!
av185 said:
What type of car are you referring to and what price?
Last of the line particularly na high end high performance cars are seeing a resurgance atm despite known headwinds. Unfortunately some will end up in collections but values are expected to rise especially limited run models.
Porsche are investing bigtime in alternative fuel plants amd wholst they are at the front of ev drsign they are clearly committed to continuing ice car production for some considerable time.
Hi av Last of the line particularly na high end high performance cars are seeing a resurgance atm despite known headwinds. Unfortunately some will end up in collections but values are expected to rise especially limited run models.
Porsche are investing bigtime in alternative fuel plants amd wholst they are at the front of ev drsign they are clearly committed to continuing ice car production for some considerable time.
I would like a new 718 GTS 4.0 but looking like long long delivery.
So also considering nearly new 992 2S / 4S so topping 100k
As I have said can't really get down the OPC to see what I want and test drive at the moment.
I think I just need to choose something and get on with it
off_again said:
Been said previously, but lets be honest, is any government really going to ban ICE cars by 2030 / 2035 or what ever? Not seeing it. The chances of this actually coming into affect is limited, any deadlines will get pushed and its only for new cars anyway. Does that mean that ICE is going away? No time soon.
I will admit to having an EV at the moment and the number of buyers out there will increase for sure. But when we look at the global EV market, its something like 2%-3% of the total currently. Ok, so its 9 years until 2030 and a lot can change, but the shift to EV is increasing but its going to have to stratospheric to get to that 2030 deadline!
What concerns me is that its all good and great if you can afford an EV or you are in a position to utilize one. Charging at home is an issue for a large percentage of the population and for most, an EV is still a luxury purchase. How many millions of people are there that run a 10+ year old car to get them around? How many have no charging at home (or work etc) and are we really expecting society, life, home, living spaces to dramatically change in 9 years to actually make this a reality? Mmmm, not quite seeing it. And thats before we look at all of the investment that any government needs to make on shifts in taxation, investment in charging infrastructure and even simple things like training fire fighters etc! Its going to cost billions to get there, at the tax payers expense, forcing buying habits (at tax payers expense) and ultimately penalizing ICE (at tax payers expense). Yeah, good luck getting that legislation through!
The shift is here. Its happening. Its not for everyone yet and wont be for a number of years still. If the numbers and personal situation works for you now, go for it. But if EV's dont work for you, dont do it. Even if its seen as an inevitable thing, you have years yet and can easily adjust before it becomes a pain!
Personally, I suspect the next big car purchase I make will be another EV. I knew that my C63S was likely to be the last big engined car I get. Not because I am giving up, but I can easily switch to EV. I have a drive, charging at home is easy and I dont commute. But I could also do a number of different things. Get a cheap & cheerful run around, get some sort of classic, get a nice EV or even increase the number of motorcycles I have. Kids will be out of the house in a couple of years, so have to find a way to spend their inheritance!
Haha! I can see you have given this a little thought I will admit to having an EV at the moment and the number of buyers out there will increase for sure. But when we look at the global EV market, its something like 2%-3% of the total currently. Ok, so its 9 years until 2030 and a lot can change, but the shift to EV is increasing but its going to have to stratospheric to get to that 2030 deadline!
What concerns me is that its all good and great if you can afford an EV or you are in a position to utilize one. Charging at home is an issue for a large percentage of the population and for most, an EV is still a luxury purchase. How many millions of people are there that run a 10+ year old car to get them around? How many have no charging at home (or work etc) and are we really expecting society, life, home, living spaces to dramatically change in 9 years to actually make this a reality? Mmmm, not quite seeing it. And thats before we look at all of the investment that any government needs to make on shifts in taxation, investment in charging infrastructure and even simple things like training fire fighters etc! Its going to cost billions to get there, at the tax payers expense, forcing buying habits (at tax payers expense) and ultimately penalizing ICE (at tax payers expense). Yeah, good luck getting that legislation through!
The shift is here. Its happening. Its not for everyone yet and wont be for a number of years still. If the numbers and personal situation works for you now, go for it. But if EV's dont work for you, dont do it. Even if its seen as an inevitable thing, you have years yet and can easily adjust before it becomes a pain!
Personally, I suspect the next big car purchase I make will be another EV. I knew that my C63S was likely to be the last big engined car I get. Not because I am giving up, but I can easily switch to EV. I have a drive, charging at home is easy and I dont commute. But I could also do a number of different things. Get a cheap & cheerful run around, get some sort of classic, get a nice EV or even increase the number of motorcycles I have. Kids will be out of the house in a couple of years, so have to find a way to spend their inheritance!
I agree with all you have said and there are a lot of unknowns down the line.My post has been a little reach out to take the temperature of whether it would be sensible to splash the cash on an expensive ICE car knowing that the march of electrification will impact on future ownership and values.
We have plenty of space on the drive to charge an EV. I just get the vibes that the technology is going to take a huge leap once the big boys get their act together properly and will leave ICE cars as a minority enthusiasts pastime, but that's a long time off.
In the meantime it does seem inconceivable that the number of EV that can be manufactured cain replace ICE cars Anytime soon
Edited by Down on the Farm on Friday 5th February 22:43
GrJa said:
Pretty much what envision for the self driving cars. Obviously much safer and efficient without human error or ego in the mix. Until....
One day, there will be an eventuality where a crash is inevitable and the car ai must decide who’s the gonner. Will it decide to kill or injure its lone 50 year old passenger to save the 3 kids in the other vehicle?...
Would you buy a car that might choose to injure you?
This might lead to software hacks by those who feel they’re the important ones. Scary.
Haha. Love alfas Johnny Cabs comment. That really is the end for car enthusiasts.One day, there will be an eventuality where a crash is inevitable and the car ai must decide who’s the gonner. Will it decide to kill or injure its lone 50 year old passenger to save the 3 kids in the other vehicle?...
Would you buy a car that might choose to injure you?
This might lead to software hacks by those who feel they’re the important ones. Scary.
Hi Gr Ja, I'm a retired controls engineer and I just can't see the autonomous tech being there in my lifetime.
Just imagine your operating system is a tad out of date or not fully compatible with the young guns chasing the latest tech and your priority for survival goes to the bottom of the stack!
or if your status is lessened as you get older and less productive member of society being retired so you get the bullet! 
av185 said:
GTS a good shout the Cayman is almost a cut price but far less focused road going GT4.
Restricted new car production has tended to support 992 Carrera residuals. A surprisingly quick car but a bit sterile for some.
Thanks for the insight av.Restricted new car production has tended to support 992 Carrera residuals. A surprisingly quick car but a bit sterile for some.
My preference would be for the CGTS 4.0 with a few choice options.
That's interesting regarding the 992 production restrictions. I would want a lightly specced possibly Manual. I can but ask though. Everything I see advertised is loaded with options I wouldn't wAnt or get my monies worth out of. I know I should have an eye to resale but it's got to work for me.
Watched all the key reviews and just need to get down to the OPC to have a look and explore possibilities.
Stereolab said:
Great question OP.
I am in a similar quandary - never owned a decent car before but potentially able to get into something special to me in the next three years -much smaller budget than you -but all relative!
I’ve been watching a lot of EV conversion videos and think that’s the route I might go down. ICE drive it for the next 5/6 years then see if it can get it changed.
Crucially this won’t be a DD and I can fully see our next family car being EV-it just makes so much sense in a ‘white goods’ way.
Don’t want to commit yet as I don’t like the idea of my special car looking like a Nokia when everyone else is driving around in iPhones
Hi stereolab,I am in a similar quandary - never owned a decent car before but potentially able to get into something special to me in the next three years -much smaller budget than you -but all relative!
I’ve been watching a lot of EV conversion videos and think that’s the route I might go down. ICE drive it for the next 5/6 years then see if it can get it changed.
Crucially this won’t be a DD and I can fully see our next family car being EV-it just makes so much sense in a ‘white goods’ way.
Don’t want to commit yet as I don’t like the idea of my special car looking like a Nokia when everyone else is driving around in iPhones
Yes, we could make an EV work for a daily and knocking about locally but now my wife and I are retired we want to get out and about and do some trAvelling across this fair isle of ours once we all get the opportunity. So this means the special needs some range hence the ICE requirement in part.
strange you mention EV conversions as I follow Petrol Ped on line and there he goes and shows up on Vintage Voltage. Some very interesting content there but probAbly a bit niche at the moment but I'm sure will become more mainstream.
You've probably gathered I was looking to treat myself and the budget is not unlimited hence the question and concern about sudden drop in residuAls as more EVs come onto the market and enthusiasm and legislation takes its toll.
I do think EVs are not quite there for range and charging times and the infrastructure is a bit sporadic to rely on at the moment for easy big journeys. As a lot have said the car manufacturers are outstripping the nation's chArging stAtions and could become a tiresome impediment to EV charging away from home
anyway this discussion has convinced me to just get on and do it and not worry too much about the future. Cheers.
OP here. I'm still here and absorbing all the views and arguments
My feelings are pretty much aligned with a lot of what has been said.
EV s are coming and there's no dodging that or how the government will be championing that.
We can all see that from an air quality perspective in towns and cities it's the right answer BUT can we learn to embrace them?
BUT, and it's a big but, is the government going to be sensitive to the fact the transition will be painful for some in society to adopt EVs and will enthusiasts views for ICE be given any sort of consideration and treated sympathetically. I think not! Will they set out a clear plan and route to electrification. I think in their minds setting 2030 date IS the plan and all should follow from there through manufacturers development and market forces.
Looking at how our great leaders in HoC have handled Brexit and the pandemic I have no doubt whatsoever that they will make a dog's dinner of anything they touch and I have little faith that the nuances of what the people actually want will get lost in a committee decision and solution as Is always the case.
Is there any motoring body who is championing the ICE side of the equation? The manufacturers seem to have already capitulated to the emissions legislation and complying through electrification and is a done deal, and for them is it just big business selling numbers of units? Almost certainly.
What happens to motorsport in the meantime? Carries on for competition purposes but little to no engineering development from now on? Are we going to see electrification to what will amount to a big boys Scalextric set? Who knows?
I can see, through the last six pages I am not alone in pondering these issues
I've always promised myself something a little special and I'm damned well going to do it once this lockdown is over!!
Thanks for all the contributions folks.It's always good to talk!
My feelings are pretty much aligned with a lot of what has been said.
EV s are coming and there's no dodging that or how the government will be championing that.
We can all see that from an air quality perspective in towns and cities it's the right answer BUT can we learn to embrace them?
BUT, and it's a big but, is the government going to be sensitive to the fact the transition will be painful for some in society to adopt EVs and will enthusiasts views for ICE be given any sort of consideration and treated sympathetically. I think not! Will they set out a clear plan and route to electrification. I think in their minds setting 2030 date IS the plan and all should follow from there through manufacturers development and market forces.
Looking at how our great leaders in HoC have handled Brexit and the pandemic I have no doubt whatsoever that they will make a dog's dinner of anything they touch and I have little faith that the nuances of what the people actually want will get lost in a committee decision and solution as Is always the case.
Is there any motoring body who is championing the ICE side of the equation? The manufacturers seem to have already capitulated to the emissions legislation and complying through electrification and is a done deal, and for them is it just big business selling numbers of units? Almost certainly.
What happens to motorsport in the meantime? Carries on for competition purposes but little to no engineering development from now on? Are we going to see electrification to what will amount to a big boys Scalextric set? Who knows?
I can see, through the last six pages I am not alone in pondering these issues
I've always promised myself something a little special and I'm damned well going to do it once this lockdown is over!!
Thanks for all the contributions folks.It's always good to talk!
Great post lil red GTO , some good points.
Reflects a lot of my thoughts and feelings going forward from here on in.
Big questions are will it be retrospectively applied to "old" gas guzzlers and how punitive and resulting disastrous residuals?
I'm looking at something special and will be fairly expensive purchase for me, and that's the issue you see. All previous cars I have bought out right I have looked at writing off the whole cost of the vehicle when I purchased it. Pessimistic I know, any value remaining is just a bonus.
The car I am looking at are a significant sum so not comfortable using this philosophy this time. Maybe the answer is PCP and hand it back after 3/4 years. I'm undecided. I was planning to keep the car for many years, meaning I have to choose the right one.
It's somewhat ironic that the car will not be travelling a lot of miles as I have other cars for daily duties yet VED will be sizeable which is only going to increase im sure.
Ah decisions, decisions!
Reflects a lot of my thoughts and feelings going forward from here on in.
Big questions are will it be retrospectively applied to "old" gas guzzlers and how punitive and resulting disastrous residuals?
I'm looking at something special and will be fairly expensive purchase for me, and that's the issue you see. All previous cars I have bought out right I have looked at writing off the whole cost of the vehicle when I purchased it. Pessimistic I know, any value remaining is just a bonus.
The car I am looking at are a significant sum so not comfortable using this philosophy this time. Maybe the answer is PCP and hand it back after 3/4 years. I'm undecided. I was planning to keep the car for many years, meaning I have to choose the right one.
It's somewhat ironic that the car will not be travelling a lot of miles as I have other cars for daily duties yet VED will be sizeable which is only going to increase im sure.
Ah decisions, decisions!
Would it be too much to ask our esteemed leaders in Westminster to share with the people a roadmap then we can make some informed decisions going forward?
It all seems so haphazard in approach, you know, like they are muddling along without a plan. Sound familiar?
Thanks to everyone for their contributions on this thread. It's been very enlightening
It all seems so haphazard in approach, you know, like they are muddling along without a plan. Sound familiar?
Thanks to everyone for their contributions on this thread. It's been very enlightening
And there we are. We have come full circle to my original post. How much depreciation can i/we stand.
It's been a great read this thread and for the record I am decided on getting my special ICE car as soon as I can get down the showroom. Can't in all honesty spend that much money without having a drive to decide. Did that once before and regretted it.
Sod the depreciation!
You know 321 boost has a point. Rishi will be coming looking for his pound of flesh out of us all very shortly.
He could be starting going down that route come 03 March. Will he put internet tax on internet car sales. Who knows?
Also, I am not dead against EVs and can see me owning one in the future for general duties once the range has improved. As I said, I Have recently retired and intend to do some trAvelling and I prefer to do that without the encumberance of planning charging station stops along the way.
Cheers and Still following with interest.
It's been a great read this thread and for the record I am decided on getting my special ICE car as soon as I can get down the showroom. Can't in all honesty spend that much money without having a drive to decide. Did that once before and regretted it.
Sod the depreciation!
You know 321 boost has a point. Rishi will be coming looking for his pound of flesh out of us all very shortly.
He could be starting going down that route come 03 March. Will he put internet tax on internet car sales. Who knows?
Also, I am not dead against EVs and can see me owning one in the future for general duties once the range has improved. As I said, I Have recently retired and intend to do some trAvelling and I prefer to do that without the encumberance of planning charging station stops along the way.
Cheers and Still following with interest.
Gassing Station | General Gassing | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff