Tipping point towards EVs is around 5 years
Discussion
Technology disruption forecast. EVs tipping point is in 5 years.
Convincing arguments:
Tony Seba: Clean Disruption - Energy & Transportation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0&fe...
Convincing arguments:
Tony Seba: Clean Disruption - Energy & Transportation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0&fe...
Edited by RayTay on Thursday 23 November 17:05
Interesting graph of the uptake of Colour TV in the USA. The tipping point was 1960, Around 1970-71 the `installed base` was over black & white TVs. This graph does say it all as the sales of colour TVs took over black & white before that time - before the two lines met on the graph. During the colour TV flatline to 1960 the price of colour TVs was dropping and continued all along the line.
Expect EVs to do the same. 5 years to the tipping point is not too optimistic.
Edited by RayTay on Saturday 25th November 09:59
EVLATECOMER said:
£300 OLEV grant per socket; i.e. £600 for double point.
No BIK for employees using one from April 2018, company cars drivers already have this benefit.
The tipping point of 5 years? I think that is about right. There is still an amazing amount of ignorance surrounding EVs - look at the comments on piston heads. The Youtube, `Fully Charged` have some nice vids explaining how EVs are more `economical to run overall` than ICE cars. If I was in the market for new car, a EV or at least a hybrid it would be. In around 10 years (I keep cars a long time), ICE cars will be excluded from many city centres, etc. No BIK for employees using one from April 2018, company cars drivers already have this benefit.
REALIST123 said:
All due respect, but it's quite ironic that you should be implying ignorance amongst others.
There are still millions who don't live in and never drive in Cities.
There are many EVs that are significantly more expensive to run than equivalently sized ICE cars. We don't all want to run around in tiny boxes.
Feel free to buy whatever you like. I'll stick with my choice until there's a competitive EV for me. There isn't yet.
The point I made was that many people would have saved going for an EV, but never out of ignorance. You may find ICE cars being precluded from many aspects of everyday driving as time rolls on. Cities like Pars and Berlin have put timescales on ICE elimination in `all` of the cities and even the whole countries. Once the tipping point comes authorities will clamp down on ICE vehicles gradually then hard. Stick with dinosaur technology, be my guest, but you will pay for it out of your own pocket. As EVs increase in volume, simple things like petrol stations will be rare and maybe even the skilled labour to fix an ICE car - try getting someone to fix a steam engine these days. Owning an ICE car will be an inconvenience as was an EV 10 years ago.There are still millions who don't live in and never drive in Cities.
There are many EVs that are significantly more expensive to run than equivalently sized ICE cars. We don't all want to run around in tiny boxes.
Feel free to buy whatever you like. I'll stick with my choice until there's a competitive EV for me. There isn't yet.
There are countless example of technology disruption. A recent one is the introduction of the combi boiler. In millions of homes large inefficient cast-iron boilers and large cylinders disappeared quite quickly, once the tipping point came.
Edited by RayTay on Sunday 26th November 12:45
JPJPJP said:
I don’t think EV will be the natural choice for every car buyer in the uk in 5 years,
Understand what the tipping point is. In 10 years time you may find that no 100% ICE vehicle will be for sale. Volvo announced they will not be selling any. Once EVs drop in price, and they will like colour TVs did, it will be a landslide. All points that way.Yipper said:
EVs are heavily subsidised. Thousands and thousands of Pounds per vehicle. The EV 105% growth is artificially inflated.
Almost everywhere subsidies or tax-breaks for EVs have been removed, sales collapse overnight. For example, Tesla sales in Denmark plunged -60% in H1 2017 when subsidies / tax-breaks stopped.
Oil is heavily subsidised. To the point we pay a fortune for armed forces to guarantee its supply. Almost everywhere subsidies or tax-breaks for EVs have been removed, sales collapse overnight. For example, Tesla sales in Denmark plunged -60% in H1 2017 when subsidies / tax-breaks stopped.
EarlOfHazard said:
One the EV age really starts, and then petrol stations start closing due to lack of trade, I anticipate the transition will be rather swift.
That is what Tony Seba says in the video in the first post of this thread. I am sure many who comment here never looked at the vid. Hybrids and full EVs are everywhere in London with just about every Uber taxi being a Prius. From Jan all new back London cabs have to be at least a hybrid. TfL insist all new buses are at least hybrids. So far no auto maker has made a decent range-extender engine with many in development. Mazda are developing a rotary for hybrid duty - the perfect engine in size, weight and smoothness for that duty (they are part time engines). Many of these engines may only be short lived as full EVs take over.
Edited by RayTay on Monday 27th November 11:04
DELETED: Comment made by a member who's account has been deleted.
There is also the cost of the NHS needlessly treating respiratory diseases and complaints - not taking into account the personal misery of the victims. That has run into trillions. All because of oil burning.Edited by RayTay on Monday 27th November 10:59
Yipper said:
Britain has spent about $100m directly protecting oil, gas and petrol rights since the 1970s... Britain has received roughly $1 trillion in taxes from oil, petrol and gas since the 1970s.
You made all that up. £100m for the parts of the navy ensuring oil supply, the troops in the Iraq wars? Please! The renovation of London Bridge station was far more than that. Then the previous costs of having troops and advisers in Oman, etc, etc. All in all since oil became important to the economy the UK has spent trillions on ensuring its supply. You appear to have an agenda. An astroturfer?
REALIST123 said:
Not really. Studies show that the amount of harmful air pollutants from tyres and brakes is about the same as from exhausts. Plus it's not as easily dissipated.
The EV isn't the answer there.
Are you serious? The EV is the answer. Regen brakes reduce the brake pollutants by about 95%. Then the there is zero emissions.The EV isn't the answer there.
bearman68 said:
My belief is they make more Co2 than conventional ICE engines,
One of the refineries in the UK uses electricity, generated by mainly fossil fuels, to the level of Leicester and Coventry combined. Then this petrol, which took lots of fossil fuel to extract it from the ground and then transport it, and then refine it, is then put into the tanks of cars polluting yet again - but this time in front of the lungs of millions of people. Musk said there is enough electricity generating available to charge EVs. When petrol refining drops the EVs use the electricity direct. EVs are massively cleaner all around than ICEsEdited by RayTay on Monday 27th November 18:53
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airbus-se-rolls...
Siemens, Airbus, Rolls-Royce team up on hybrid-electric plane propulsion
Siemens, Airbus, Rolls-Royce team up on hybrid-electric plane propulsion
Pooh said:
There is no need to make up stuff like this to support the case for EVs.
I don't make things up. The true cost of oil is phenomenal. We lost men in Iraq all because of oil. Then the 100,000s dead in the civil uproar after. If they grew carrots we would not be there. Oil companies walked off with most of the wealth in the North Sea. Wealth we all own.EddieSteadyGo said:
I personally think about EVs as being relatively clean due to their lack of tailpipe emissions. Of course, in reality I know that their emissions have just moved to a different location, either as part of the production process to make vehicle or to a power station in order to power it.
That is propaganda, see through it. I wrote this ....."One of the refineries in the UK uses electricity, generated by mainly fossil fuels, to the level of Leicester and Coventry combined. Then this petrol, which took lots of fossil fuel to extract it from the ground and then transport it, and then refine it, is then put into the tanks of cars polluting yet again - but this time in front of the lungs of millions of people. Musk said there is enough electricity generating available to charge EVs. When petrol refining drops the EVs use the electricity direct. EVs are massively cleaner all around than ICEs."
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