How long do you expect your EV's battery to last?
Discussion
What are people's expectations regarding the longevity of battery packs in their electric vehicles?
I got to use a tesla model S (85D) for a few days last year, and was impressed by the performance and practicality on offer. Compared to my XFR, it offers an easier-to-access boot, can carry 7 people (if 2 of them are small) and provides more legroom in the rear middle: all whilst offering similar performance for a fraction of the (running) costs of my jag. The range (up to 250 miles) is also broadly comparable, and with fast charging improving rapidly I am now confident that the range offered would meet my needs. So I have no qualms with general usability.
My one remaining (potential) problem is that I would only be in the market for one once they've depreciated lots (lost 80% of new value, so probably about 8-10yrs old). I would also want to keep it for a good long time too, however from what (little) I (think I) know about battery technology I am concerned that the current Tesla batteries would reach the recharge cliff at some point from 8-20yrs old, which would leave me with a potential £££ bill. Such battery behaviour would also (I presume) affect resale values for owners of current cars, so I imagine there are current owners that will have done some research on this topic and provide some data input to the subsequent discussion.
I got to use a tesla model S (85D) for a few days last year, and was impressed by the performance and practicality on offer. Compared to my XFR, it offers an easier-to-access boot, can carry 7 people (if 2 of them are small) and provides more legroom in the rear middle: all whilst offering similar performance for a fraction of the (running) costs of my jag. The range (up to 250 miles) is also broadly comparable, and with fast charging improving rapidly I am now confident that the range offered would meet my needs. So I have no qualms with general usability.
My one remaining (potential) problem is that I would only be in the market for one once they've depreciated lots (lost 80% of new value, so probably about 8-10yrs old). I would also want to keep it for a good long time too, however from what (little) I (think I) know about battery technology I am concerned that the current Tesla batteries would reach the recharge cliff at some point from 8-20yrs old, which would leave me with a potential £££ bill. Such battery behaviour would also (I presume) affect resale values for owners of current cars, so I imagine there are current owners that will have done some research on this topic and provide some data input to the subsequent discussion.
Thanks for the replies. In my mind I drew the following parallels:
ICE -> electric motors
Fuel tank -> battery
so the batteries represent an expensive item (above-and-beyond typical running expenses) that I felt would be more likely to need replacement than a fuel tank: I read one article that suggested the cost of replacement tesla batteries are 'projected' to drop to $12k for a replacement (currently double that?). Replies that liken the battery to the engine highlight their comparability when in comes to the cost of replacement, but based on my experience of batteries I'd still rate the probably longevity of an ICE above batteries. This mindset, it is becoming increasingly apparent, is wrong! I think the source of my original skepticism is entirely down to laptop/mobile phone battery use experience (as suggested above), and from reports of early hybrid cars having to have battery replacements every 5 years.
The youtube video was very useful - I'd seen the capacity vs milage data before, but it mentions age degradation effects on capacity (0.3% p/a) which was one area I hadn't been able to find information about. Also, the tesla roadsters having around 90% capacity after 8yrs suggests (with a very simple extrapolation) 80% would be a further 8yrs down the line, at which point, I believe, batteries tend to reach the capacity cliff.
So, looks like now I just need to wait for another 4 years for their prices to drop
ICE -> electric motors
Fuel tank -> battery
so the batteries represent an expensive item (above-and-beyond typical running expenses) that I felt would be more likely to need replacement than a fuel tank: I read one article that suggested the cost of replacement tesla batteries are 'projected' to drop to $12k for a replacement (currently double that?). Replies that liken the battery to the engine highlight their comparability when in comes to the cost of replacement, but based on my experience of batteries I'd still rate the probably longevity of an ICE above batteries. This mindset, it is becoming increasingly apparent, is wrong! I think the source of my original skepticism is entirely down to laptop/mobile phone battery use experience (as suggested above), and from reports of early hybrid cars having to have battery replacements every 5 years.
The youtube video was very useful - I'd seen the capacity vs milage data before, but it mentions age degradation effects on capacity (0.3% p/a) which was one area I hadn't been able to find information about. Also, the tesla roadsters having around 90% capacity after 8yrs suggests (with a very simple extrapolation) 80% would be a further 8yrs down the line, at which point, I believe, batteries tend to reach the capacity cliff.
So, looks like now I just need to wait for another 4 years for their prices to drop
Edited by Jag_luvver on Friday 5th January 22:53
Max_Torque said:
Jag_luvver said:
but based on my experience of batteries I'd still rate the probably longevity of an ICE above batteries.
Can you explain the difference between a battery designed to last 10 years / 150k miles and an engine designed to last 10 years / 150k miles ?My (admittedly limited) experience of car ownership has always started with cars around 10 years old, and at no point has the engine (or any part of it) needed replacing. I don't believe this is a particularly unusual ownership experience. In comparison, the few people I've know who had early hybrids had to replace their batteries after 5 years or so, and I don't know about full electric longevity because they're relatively new so are still building up data, but I doubt there will be as many electric cars on their original batteries in 15 years time compared to ICE vehicles with their original engines.
I think battery tech is a lot more reliable than my perception of it is (see earlier comment r.e. mobile/laptop experience), but I'd not be willing to take the plunge on a 10yr old Tesla with an original battery that could cost £10k to replace, until there's sufficient history to suggest that 15-20yrs of usage is fine for the original battery. Ultimately, it's my perception that's the problem, and this is all based on speculation so time will tell what's right!
For clarification: I was attempting to answer the question "why do you think the prospect of having to spend £10k+ replacing an ICE (jag xfr) is less likely than the prospect of having to spend £10k+ on a replacement tesla battery pack (model S 85D)". This was what I understood from the term 'longevity', given the context of the rest of the thread. I presumed it was clear that the scenario "ICE vs battery: replace nothing required to run them and see which lasts the longest" was not what I was trying to argue in favour of ICE...
No.
And an early hybrid needing a battery change? Unlikely that it happened within 5 years (which is warranty on Toyota) and even then mk1 and mk2 Prius' batteries can be sorted for under a grand.
Sorry - what I said in the brackets was clearly b
ks. The bit in brackets was me thinking of parts like pistons, conrods, crankshafts (i.e. non-service items inside the engine block), which I have never had to have replaced. The service items you listed, which I have replaced (timing belt, plugs, filters and oil), are part of the running costs (not what I had meant to compare in response to 'longevity'). I've never had to replace a clutch (although I do know people who have), nor a gearbox, nor did I need to replace the turbo on my one turbocharged car. Also, at no point did I suggest that a 10-yr old car would be a "trouble-free prospect" - just that I think the probability of needing to pay over £10k+ for an engine replacement after 10 years is lower than the probability of needing to replace £10k+ of tesla batteries. All, I acknowledged in my last post, based purely on speculative prejudice.
In terms of prius replacement, they may well have been replaced under warranty the first time - my point was that they needed replacing in a much shorter lifespan than a whole engine typically would (again, the subject of the longevity comparison given the comparable cost of ICE vs tesla battery pack). Hence my concern that an old battery-powered car (e.g. 10yr old Tesla) would be more likely to need its battery replacing (cost £10k+) than an ICE-powered car would need its engine replacing (e.g. 10yr old jag) - a similar cost item, which would need much lower cost items replaced more regularly in order to keep it running.
Just out of interest - do people reading this think it's best to move a car on when it reaches a certain age? Is there an age where you would expect to have to fork out the cost of a new battery pack on repairing an ICE?
Evanivitch said:
Jag_luvver said:
My (admittedly limited) experience of car ownership has always started with cars around 10 years old, and at no point has the engine (or any part of it) needed replacing.
None of it? No timing belt, no clutch, no spark plugs, alternators, filters or oil? Even a lot of old TDi has seen a turbo or injector change. But you're adament that a 10yr old car is a trouble-free prospect?No.
And an early hybrid needing a battery change? Unlikely that it happened within 5 years (which is warranty on Toyota) and even then mk1 and mk2 Prius' batteries can be sorted for under a grand.
Edited by Evanivitch on Thursday 18th January 22:26
ks. The bit in brackets was me thinking of parts like pistons, conrods, crankshafts (i.e. non-service items inside the engine block), which I have never had to have replaced. The service items you listed, which I have replaced (timing belt, plugs, filters and oil), are part of the running costs (not what I had meant to compare in response to 'longevity'). I've never had to replace a clutch (although I do know people who have), nor a gearbox, nor did I need to replace the turbo on my one turbocharged car. Also, at no point did I suggest that a 10-yr old car would be a "trouble-free prospect" - just that I think the probability of needing to pay over £10k+ for an engine replacement after 10 years is lower than the probability of needing to replace £10k+ of tesla batteries. All, I acknowledged in my last post, based purely on speculative prejudice. In terms of prius replacement, they may well have been replaced under warranty the first time - my point was that they needed replacing in a much shorter lifespan than a whole engine typically would (again, the subject of the longevity comparison given the comparable cost of ICE vs tesla battery pack). Hence my concern that an old battery-powered car (e.g. 10yr old Tesla) would be more likely to need its battery replacing (cost £10k+) than an ICE-powered car would need its engine replacing (e.g. 10yr old jag) - a similar cost item, which would need much lower cost items replaced more regularly in order to keep it running.
Just out of interest - do people reading this think it's best to move a car on when it reaches a certain age? Is there an age where you would expect to have to fork out the cost of a new battery pack on repairing an ICE?
Edited by Jag_luvver on Friday 19th January 20:52
Rust and fire (electrical fault...) got a couple of my previous cars, both when they were over 20 years old. So on that experience I should probably shy away from anything over 20 years old, and put that down as the age when the repair bills get too big to stomach.
What made you change from running sheds to getting a new merc hybrid? And how long are you planning on keeping it?
What made you change from running sheds to getting a new merc hybrid? And how long are you planning on keeping it?
Chris-S said:
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then having talked ourselves into a big budget, we drifted in to a new one when I spotted the C350e. We did look at used ones as they are much better value of course, but still not cheap, and decided that if we were spending a lot, we wanted what we wanted, not what was available IYSWIM.
...
I can appreciate that. My only reason for not getting bangers is if there's something specific that I would like, which is the wanted vs need/availability thing.then having talked ourselves into a big budget, we drifted in to a new one when I spotted the C350e. We did look at used ones as they are much better value of course, but still not cheap, and decided that if we were spending a lot, we wanted what we wanted, not what was available IYSWIM.
...
Max_Torque said:
Your ICE powered car is designed for a service life of 150k miles and 10 years
Your EV powered car is designed for a service life of 150k miles and 10 years
(i should know, i design the them!)
The difference? The EV can tell you how "knackered" its battery is! The ICE relies on the buyer having 1) some mechanical skill to assess the (likely) state of the powertrain and 2) often a lot of luck
An ICE car at 10yo and 150k miles is, effectively worthless.
I mistook the "10yr/150k miles" in your previous post for an 'or' rather than an 'and' (makes a difference!) - hence me wondering why ICE cars were only designed to last for 10 years: a 15 yr ICE car that's covered 50k miles will still have plenty of (mechanical) life left in its powertrain. I don't understand how a 15yr EV could be designed such that it would have a similar proportion of life left if it, given that some usage-independent battery degradation occurs and that knowledge of the latest batteries has had a comparatively short time to be developed. Your EV powered car is designed for a service life of 150k miles and 10 years
(i should know, i design the them!)
The difference? The EV can tell you how "knackered" its battery is! The ICE relies on the buyer having 1) some mechanical skill to assess the (likely) state of the powertrain and 2) often a lot of luck
An ICE car at 10yo and 150k miles is, effectively worthless.
Part of my skepticism is that I know nothing about how a battery could be designed to meet a particular usage profile - do you work in this area, and could you enlighten me? What aspect of a battery's design are used to maintain its capacity over a given lifetime?
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