Secondhand car price crash?
Discussion
Ultimately what trade are paying for cars doesn't paint the full picture - whether that's WBAC, Czaoo, Motorway or dealers through BCA.
Those figures tell us nothing about whether the cars they are buying are selling, and for how much.
Dealers need to buy cars or they've nothing to sell, just because they are in a bidding war at BCA for a car doesn't mean Joe Public will hand over what they want back for it.
Those figures tell us nothing about whether the cars they are buying are selling, and for how much.
Dealers need to buy cars or they've nothing to sell, just because they are in a bidding war at BCA for a car doesn't mean Joe Public will hand over what they want back for it.
Monthly outgoings will really start to bite in next few months. My energy company today sent me details of new payments needed from April after tariff increase. Dual fuel will be £350 pm I was paying £160 pm 12 months ago. And it will go up again in October by maybe another 40% ! And people think secondhand car prices won’t fall. I can see a lot of people trying to get into more economical vehicles over the summer
cc3 said:
Been looking at a few cars online Porsche BMW etc. shocked when I put the reg into Webuyanycar. £80k retail and some trade prices now £50k! Bottom dropping out of high end petrol hungry market?
That’s not what I am seeing. Checked my 10 yr old 991 a couple of weeks ago and just checked again after seeing your post. Same price on both requests and £3k more than in January. Price is about £10k-£12k less than an OPC would ask so I would say a reasonable offer and holding steady.So what will happen to ICE values over time?
Will there be a gradual decline in value? Or sharp curve to depreciation?
For example, it’s 2035. All ICE production has ceased at Stutgart. There are 20 million ICE engines on UK roads and 14 million electric. The only new car is electric or a used ICE. No one really wants ICE anymore because V Power is £3.20 a litre. Someone’s PCP agreement on the BMW M9 has come to an end. The balloon payment is £38,000 but the M9 is worth £28,000 and people are raving about the all electric M10. Hypothetical and exaggerated example here.
Will there be a gradual decline in value? Or sharp curve to depreciation?
For example, it’s 2035. All ICE production has ceased at Stutgart. There are 20 million ICE engines on UK roads and 14 million electric. The only new car is electric or a used ICE. No one really wants ICE anymore because V Power is £3.20 a litre. Someone’s PCP agreement on the BMW M9 has come to an end. The balloon payment is £38,000 but the M9 is worth £28,000 and people are raving about the all electric M10. Hypothetical and exaggerated example here.
As others have said, dealers can charge what they want but I think the days of a profit margin model might be numbered. As you know it’s hard to find a new car with options and toys. For a while you couldn’t even specify a new BMW with head up display let alone reverse camera. This meant some who would have bought new were forced to look at used. It seems that dealers get a second round of profits on options because of this and some people will pay for the car they want. My theory is though that as semi-conductors and wiring harnesses gradually become available, things will change. Used cars might then just come down in price as there is no pent up demand left.
Who is paying the crazy prices being asked for ten+ year old white good cars? I am a serial sheddist, and when I bought my current car at ten years old and 61K miles it cost me £1200. Looking to replace it with something similar again and they are asking £5K+.
Now to me this is mental and a £5K car is right in no mans land as it can easily throw you a several thousand pound bill and you have no choice but to get it fixed. I have given up, I am not prepared to pay the prices or spend my weekends traipsing to look at overpriced heaps of junks described as "immaculate"
This week I have done something I thought I would never do and ordered a brand new car, a Dacia Sandero Stepway in recession white. It seemed a no brainer to me, putting £5K down means the monthly payments are £72 a month.
For that I am getting a brand new car, 3 year warranty/breakdown cover, no MOT for 3 years, 2 years free servicing and I don't have to waste my time looking at cars. All for £72 a month more than I was going to pay for a ten year old car with zero warranty that will no doubt need money spending on it.
I am planning on keeping that car forever, especially with the ICE ban in 2030 and I don't have to think about cheap second hand cars and all the potential grief that goes with them.
Now to me this is mental and a £5K car is right in no mans land as it can easily throw you a several thousand pound bill and you have no choice but to get it fixed. I have given up, I am not prepared to pay the prices or spend my weekends traipsing to look at overpriced heaps of junks described as "immaculate"
This week I have done something I thought I would never do and ordered a brand new car, a Dacia Sandero Stepway in recession white. It seemed a no brainer to me, putting £5K down means the monthly payments are £72 a month.
For that I am getting a brand new car, 3 year warranty/breakdown cover, no MOT for 3 years, 2 years free servicing and I don't have to waste my time looking at cars. All for £72 a month more than I was going to pay for a ten year old car with zero warranty that will no doubt need money spending on it.
I am planning on keeping that car forever, especially with the ICE ban in 2030 and I don't have to think about cheap second hand cars and all the potential grief that goes with them.
Having spoken to a couple of car dealers recently I can't see supply is going to be improving anytime soon. Speaking to a Kia dealer when I enquired about a Rio he told me the current price was not guaranteed and the manufacturer contribution was not guaranteed. Basically I had to pay the price of the car when it turned up whatever that may be. I got the impression he didn't actually care if I ordered one or not.
If you look at the Ford Focus the website states "Due to customer demand and supply chain disruption, new factory orders are currently unavailable on new Focus.". This is a Ford Focus, the sort of car pre pandemic that they would have had car parks full of and you could have one in a week. I believe the German manufacturers are quoting a year for delivery now.
I believe that new car deliveries will not improve this year and even if they do the backlog is massive so it will take them time to catch up. I also believe that the crazy new prices will increase due to rising costs and there will be no deals to be had, why do they need to bother if you cannot get a car for a year?
This in turn will cause prices of second hand cars to stay high, and it won't be long before that 2030 new ICE ban takes effect and people realise this is their last chance to buy a new car. Once that panic starts it will be impossible to get anything.
This is another reason I ordered the Sandero, the ULEZ charge in Greater London means I need to get rid of the diesel shed by the end of next year anyway. This car will last me 15 years+, it means I don't have to worry about second hand cars or the inevitable panic buying once people realise 2030 isn't that far away.
We will never see cheap second hand cars like we used to, losing 50% in three years.
If you look at the Ford Focus the website states "Due to customer demand and supply chain disruption, new factory orders are currently unavailable on new Focus.". This is a Ford Focus, the sort of car pre pandemic that they would have had car parks full of and you could have one in a week. I believe the German manufacturers are quoting a year for delivery now.
I believe that new car deliveries will not improve this year and even if they do the backlog is massive so it will take them time to catch up. I also believe that the crazy new prices will increase due to rising costs and there will be no deals to be had, why do they need to bother if you cannot get a car for a year?
This in turn will cause prices of second hand cars to stay high, and it won't be long before that 2030 new ICE ban takes effect and people realise this is their last chance to buy a new car. Once that panic starts it will be impossible to get anything.
This is another reason I ordered the Sandero, the ULEZ charge in Greater London means I need to get rid of the diesel shed by the end of next year anyway. This car will last me 15 years+, it means I don't have to worry about second hand cars or the inevitable panic buying once people realise 2030 isn't that far away.
We will never see cheap second hand cars like we used to, losing 50% in three years.
Fusion777 said:
The 2030 date is really 2035 due to hybrids. 13 years is a long time.
Yes but they will have to be proper hybrids, not the mild "shoe box battery and a starter motor stuck on the gearbox" hybrids. It is going to be impossible to buy a cheap, basic car after 2030.That is before all the speed limiters, lane assist, auto braking, adaptive cruise control that slows you down when the speed limit changes nonsense they are going to force all cars to have, further pushing up the price and ruining driving.
I have just ordered a Dacia Sandero Stepway with a (supposed) six month delivery time. I have just seen a seven month old identical car sell immediately for list price.
Currently there is a year old model with 12K miles on the clock for sale for £1K over list.
According to the video below, car manufacturers are making larger profits than ever despite selling less cars and are keen for this to continue. They are discontinuing the cheaper, low profit cars and look set to build less cars but charge more for them.
I can't see prices ever getting back to what they used to be pre pandemic.
Currently there is a year old model with 12K miles on the clock for sale for £1K over list.
According to the video below, car manufacturers are making larger profits than ever despite selling less cars and are keen for this to continue. They are discontinuing the cheaper, low profit cars and look set to build less cars but charge more for them.
I can't see prices ever getting back to what they used to be pre pandemic.
av185 said:
As predicted - What we are seeing is the average prices being dragged down slightly by the larger engined high ved gas guzzlers bigger SUVs and 4x4s which are out of favour particularly following the milder weather.
Increasingly older and tattier no/sketchy service history multi owned stuff requiring expenditure is also impacting prices.
Sports, niche, cabriolets, estates, limited run, quality especially 1 owner fsh and medium and high end are all up ££.
As ever the best cars are selling fastest at the best prices often before even advertising but understandably the tattier stuff is increasingly harder to sell witnessed by much cast off lower grade 3 4 and 5 px appearing at auction.
Edited to add - 'As predicted'Increasingly older and tattier no/sketchy service history multi owned stuff requiring expenditure is also impacting prices.
Sports, niche, cabriolets, estates, limited run, quality especially 1 owner fsh and medium and high end are all up ££.
As ever the best cars are selling fastest at the best prices often before even advertising but understandably the tattier stuff is increasingly harder to sell witnessed by much cast off lower grade 3 4 and 5 px appearing at auction.
Edited by av185 on Thursday 28th April 15:27
With regards to claims that used car prices will have to remain high as they are linked to increasing new car prices, some people are forgetting that paying list price for a new car is a relatively recent situation for most mainstream mass-produced stuff in the UK.
If new car sales slow for any reason - supply catches up with demand, demand softens - and manufacturers and dealers start to discount new cars from list, used car prices will have to drop as a result or they just won't sell.
If new car sales slow for any reason - supply catches up with demand, demand softens - and manufacturers and dealers start to discount new cars from list, used car prices will have to drop as a result or they just won't sell.
av185 said:
yellowbentines said:
With regards to claims that used car prices will have to remain high as they are linked to increasing new car prices, some people are forgetting that paying list price for a new car is a relatively recent situation for most mainstream mass-produced stuff in the UK.
If new car sales slow for any reason - supply catches up with demand, demand softens - and manufacturers and dealers start to discount new cars from list, used car prices will have to drop as a result or they just won't sell.
This didn't happen when new diesel sales dropped post dieselgate.If new car sales slow for any reason - supply catches up with demand, demand softens - and manufacturers and dealers start to discount new cars from list, used car prices will have to drop as a result or they just won't sell.
In fact the opposite happened and he price of used diesels rose simply because there was increasingly restricted supply of new then used following dieselgate scare stories.
Demand and supply of new cars is different to demand and supply of used.
Nearly new cars are selling close to list or over list as it's hard to get new cars and there are long lead times.
If new supply catches up or supply exceeds demand and dealers discount new cars from list, are you telling me that the price of used cars isn't linked and people will pay more for used than they can walk in and buy a new car for from stock?
And once anything new sells for under list, nearly new has to drop in price to less than that, and so on down the chain.
yellowbentines said:
If new supply catches up or supply exceeds demand and dealers discount new cars from list, are you telling me that the price of used cars isn't linked and people will pay more for used than they can walk in and buy a new car for from stock?
And once anything new sells for under list, nearly new has to drop in price to less than that, and so on down the chain.
As I said earlier, car manufacturers are selling less cars now but making bigger profits. They are discontinuing the smaller cars they make little money on to concentrate on the more expensive cars. They are also realising that they need to follow the Ferrari theory of "build one less car than you can sell" to keep prices high.And once anything new sells for under list, nearly new has to drop in price to less than that, and so on down the chain.
I really cannot see them going back to churning out as many cars as possible only to virtually give them away for £200 a month leases and make no profit. New car prices are going to go up and things like BMW, Mercedes and Audis are seen as prestigious again as they are not available on cheap leases anymore.
It's over, the days of getting a Golf GTi on a £200 a month lease are long gone.
Current waiting list for German car is over a year, same goes for Kia/Hyundai EVs. Ford have closed the order books for the Ford Focus and are not taking any orders.
You are looking at a minimum six month wait for a Dacia Sandero, I think Porsche are quoting delivery dates into 2024.
When exactly do you think supply will increase? Prices are increasing all the time, a supermini is getting on for £20K+ now, £30K for a MX5 as quoted, £34K for a bottom of the range 3 Series. This is further dragging up the prices of second hand models.
With waiting lists as they are and the prices of new cars increasing all the time, what is going to be the trigger for prices to dramatically fall? And I don't think it will be the cost of living as a massive percentage of people seem to have an awful lot of money.
You are looking at a minimum six month wait for a Dacia Sandero, I think Porsche are quoting delivery dates into 2024.
When exactly do you think supply will increase? Prices are increasing all the time, a supermini is getting on for £20K+ now, £30K for a MX5 as quoted, £34K for a bottom of the range 3 Series. This is further dragging up the prices of second hand models.
With waiting lists as they are and the prices of new cars increasing all the time, what is going to be the trigger for prices to dramatically fall? And I don't think it will be the cost of living as a massive percentage of people seem to have an awful lot of money.
nick1871 said:
You did it the wrong way round, you should have got your order in first then arranged the test drive when the demos hit the dealers, the deposit was refundable.
It was always going to be a popular car.
And I bet when more order slots become available the price will suddenly be 10 to 15% higher than the £30K they are now, further driving up the second hand price of those lucky enough to get one of the first cars.It was always going to be a popular car.
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