F430 Market Watch
Discussion
In response to requests on another thread, here is some data on F430 prices. First of all it's just a bit of fun so please don't take it too seriously. Secondly, I don't have the time to go into the figures in any real detail but will try to answer any specific requests.
For 360 price analysis please head over to my site: Aldous Voice Ferrari Blog
As per my 360 prices, I will create the Aldous Voice 430 Price Index (AV430PI). Re-basing August to 100 gives a September figure of 98.66 (ie: the average asking price has dropped by 1.34% MoM).
Here is a table of body style vs price. You can see that spiders are generally commanding a premium over coupes. One thing I noticed is that the spread of prices is much narrower for spiders.
Here's the numbers for transmission. No surprise that F1 is priced over the manual, the latter prices being skewed to the bottom of the market.
Here are the colours, red is the most popular. When I was compiling the data I was a little surprised with the amount of black cars out there.
Finally, here's mileage plotted against asking price. The data is far to concentrated to try and get a trendline going but you can see the floor at £60k, regardless of mileage.
If you want anything in particular please let me know and I'll do my best to get it out of the data.
Cheers...
For 360 price analysis please head over to my site: Aldous Voice Ferrari Blog
As per my 360 prices, I will create the Aldous Voice 430 Price Index (AV430PI). Re-basing August to 100 gives a September figure of 98.66 (ie: the average asking price has dropped by 1.34% MoM).
Here is a table of body style vs price. You can see that spiders are generally commanding a premium over coupes. One thing I noticed is that the spread of prices is much narrower for spiders.
Here's the numbers for transmission. No surprise that F1 is priced over the manual, the latter prices being skewed to the bottom of the market.
Here are the colours, red is the most popular. When I was compiling the data I was a little surprised with the amount of black cars out there.
Finally, here's mileage plotted against asking price. The data is far to concentrated to try and get a trendline going but you can see the floor at £60k, regardless of mileage.
If you want anything in particular please let me know and I'll do my best to get it out of the data.
Cheers...
Edited by voicey on Saturday 7th September 14:36
It's hard to see any patterns with just two months worth of data.
No Scuds in this data - there are two cars priced well above £100k. Not sure why you'd buy one of those when you could be in a 458! Here are the 5 most expensive cars....
Edit: Updated top 5 table with the Scuds removed...
No Scuds in this data - there are two cars priced well above £100k. Not sure why you'd buy one of those when you could be in a 458! Here are the 5 most expensive cars....
Edit: Updated top 5 table with the Scuds removed...
Edited by voicey on Wednesday 4th September 18:32
Russell996 said:
The two most expensive coupes are Scuds, they are distorting the figures.
Apologies - I didn't have time to look at the data in detail. Scuds are supposed to be listed in a seperate category. I will tweak the program to weed out Scuds at the same time it dismisses replicas and wanted ads. I'll post up the amended charts when I get home tonight.Edited by Russell996 on Tuesday 3rd September 23:00
Edited by Russell996 on Tuesday 3rd September 23:01
For 360 prices please follow this link: Aldous Voice Ferrari Blog
Another month has passed and prices are still falling, albeit more slowly than before. The Aldous Voice 430 Price Index (AV430PI) now stands at 98.26 after asking prices fell 0.40% MoM.
Here are the main tables:
And here are the prices plotted against mileage:
Let me know if you want anything else (I'll update the 458 price thread when I can).
Another month has passed and prices are still falling, albeit more slowly than before. The Aldous Voice 430 Price Index (AV430PI) now stands at 98.26 after asking prices fell 0.40% MoM.
Here are the main tables:
And here are the prices plotted against mileage:
Let me know if you want anything else (I'll update the 458 price thread when I can).
Adz man said:
Aldous, not many yellow 430 Spiders being sold? When I first bought mine in errr, mmm, I think it was Feb 2010 it was one of 13 UK registered yellow 430 Spiders...may be less of them now...so has my value gone up?!
Just for you mate, I pulled all the yellow spiders out of my data. As you say, not that many for sale. In fact I only have two in August (the first month I started collecting data). The details are in the table below - I will try to include the table in subsequent updates going forward.
Apologies for the delay in updating this thread but I've been busy buying a new car. Now that I have a vested interest in the F430 I will be looking at the figures in more detail and hope to offer the same type of analysis as the 360 prices (latest update here).
The Aldous Voice F430 Price index has dropped 2.19% MoM and now stands at 96.11. The number of cars for sale has also fallen 20% but I guess that is just the time of year we are in.
Here's the main table cutting the data up:
And here's the chart of mileage against asking price. I'm not sure if the quoted mileage of 489 of the £109k car is correct.
Lastly, here's the data on yellow spiders for Adz. A new car has appeared on the market but prices seem to be stabilised at just below £70k.
As before, please let me know if there's anything missing of if you want any more info. I will update the 458 prices thread ASAP.
Cheers...
The Aldous Voice F430 Price index has dropped 2.19% MoM and now stands at 96.11. The number of cars for sale has also fallen 20% but I guess that is just the time of year we are in.
Here's the main table cutting the data up:
And here's the chart of mileage against asking price. I'm not sure if the quoted mileage of 489 of the £109k car is correct.
Lastly, here's the data on yellow spiders for Adz. A new car has appeared on the market but prices seem to be stabilised at just below £70k.
As before, please let me know if there's anything missing of if you want any more info. I will update the 458 prices thread ASAP.
Cheers...
Edited by voicey on Tuesday 5th November 20:12
ditomaso said:
If you want any stats on F430 servicing, then let me know. As you can imagine we collect all sorts of info on servicing data, ie dates, prices, services, offers etc against every model of Ferrari across the UK.
Post them up- the more data the better as far as I'm concerned!
Firstly, apologies for not updating this thread sooner. Although I mined the data at the start of the month other commitments have taken priority.
The latest 360 prices are here: Link. Here's the thread for the 458 prices: Link. I have also provided the raw data on FF prices to a fellow PHr so he might be starting a thread on that tipo next month.
Now that I have a vested interest in 430 prices I will try and do a little more analysis. The headline price index has actually firmed up 0.33% MoM and now stands at 96.43. Here is the main data table:
Spider prices seem only to attract a premium at the upper end of the price spectrum. F1 still commands a premium and I reckon it'll be a number of years before the manual is really sought after. Red and black are the most popular colours and appear to attract a small premium.
The number of adverts has tanked in the winter months, as you would expect, almost halving from when I started collecting data:
Here's the chart of asking price vs mileage:
Since a low mileage example has appeared as well as some high mileage cars, I have been able to add a trendline. I have chosen a Power equation but might switch to a Log as time goes on. Here's a quick table of mileage vs computed asking price:
I am still keeping an eye on the yellow spiders for my mate Adz. The car that appeared on the market last month is still for sale but no more have come onto the market, thus preserving that aura of exclusivity...
That's about it. Please let me know if I've made a mistake anywhere or if there's anything else you want to see. Cheers...
The latest 360 prices are here: Link. Here's the thread for the 458 prices: Link. I have also provided the raw data on FF prices to a fellow PHr so he might be starting a thread on that tipo next month.
Now that I have a vested interest in 430 prices I will try and do a little more analysis. The headline price index has actually firmed up 0.33% MoM and now stands at 96.43. Here is the main data table:
Spider prices seem only to attract a premium at the upper end of the price spectrum. F1 still commands a premium and I reckon it'll be a number of years before the manual is really sought after. Red and black are the most popular colours and appear to attract a small premium.
The number of adverts has tanked in the winter months, as you would expect, almost halving from when I started collecting data:
Here's the chart of asking price vs mileage:
Since a low mileage example has appeared as well as some high mileage cars, I have been able to add a trendline. I have chosen a Power equation but might switch to a Log as time goes on. Here's a quick table of mileage vs computed asking price:
I am still keeping an eye on the yellow spiders for my mate Adz. The car that appeared on the market last month is still for sale but no more have come onto the market, thus preserving that aura of exclusivity...
That's about it. Please let me know if I've made a mistake anywhere or if there's anything else you want to see. Cheers...
Happy new year!
For the latest 360 prices (including a surprise rise) see here: Linky. For 458 prices see here. I am also collecting FF prices for a fellow PHr - if you want to see some numbers on those let me know.
Average asking prices have firmed yet again for the second month in a row. The MoM move is +0.8% taking the index to 97.20. Here is the main table of the data cut by bodystyle, gearbox and colour:
The number of adverts continues to decline...
The relationship between asking price and mileage remains fairly static:
Finally the yellow spider update: The solitary car on the market remains for sale - does this mean that no one wants a car that looks like a banana any more?!
I'm working on a way of tracking how long cars have been on the market and will update this thread once I have time to finalise things.
Cheers,
Aldous Voice
EDIT: Somehow the Dec table got pasted in, updated with Jan table.
For the latest 360 prices (including a surprise rise) see here: Linky. For 458 prices see here. I am also collecting FF prices for a fellow PHr - if you want to see some numbers on those let me know.
Average asking prices have firmed yet again for the second month in a row. The MoM move is +0.8% taking the index to 97.20. Here is the main table of the data cut by bodystyle, gearbox and colour:
The number of adverts continues to decline...
The relationship between asking price and mileage remains fairly static:
Finally the yellow spider update: The solitary car on the market remains for sale - does this mean that no one wants a car that looks like a banana any more?!
I'm working on a way of tracking how long cars have been on the market and will update this thread once I have time to finalise things.
Cheers,
Aldous Voice
EDIT: Somehow the Dec table got pasted in, updated with Jan table.
Edited by voicey on Saturday 4th January 15:33
red_duke said:
Always fascinating Aldous. Thank you for taking the time to put this data together. I reckon it will get even more interesting as the historic data accumulates.
How difficult would it be to show price differential for cars with/without ceramic brakes the way you do for F1/manual gearboxes? The impact of CCM brakes on resale value is hotly debated!
Right, I'm off to the garage to polish some more value into my F430.
I will see what I can do. It's a good idea and I'll try my best to make it work.How difficult would it be to show price differential for cars with/without ceramic brakes the way you do for F1/manual gearboxes? The impact of CCM brakes on resale value is hotly debated!
Right, I'm off to the garage to polish some more value into my F430.
slippery said:
Great thread OP. Thanks. 
My pleasure.Right CCM vs Steel brakes. I have tweaked the algo, if the advert text mentions "Ceramic Brake" or "Carbon Brake" then it will flip the Brake Type flag to CCM. Otherwise the flag will be set to "Steel". I have re-run it for January but really don't have the time to back populate the data for prior months. I will continue to collect it going forward though.
As suspected, CCM brake equipped car carry a premium over Steel braked examples:
In order to try and see this in more detail I plotted the asking price vs mileage in two data sets, CCM vs Steel. I then added the trend line over the two sets of asking prices:
Using the trendline equations we can then try and put a number on the average premium that CCM carries for different mileages:
I don't think this paints the correct picture though. The trendlines are diverging at higher mileages whereas I think the opposite will apply - for a car with a galactic odometer reading the fact that it has CCM brakes will be less important. However, at "normal" mileages, the premium seems to be about £5k.
Cheers,
Aldous Voice.
As suspected, CCM brake equipped car carry a premium over Steel braked examples:
In order to try and see this in more detail I plotted the asking price vs mileage in two data sets, CCM vs Steel. I then added the trend line over the two sets of asking prices:
Using the trendline equations we can then try and put a number on the average premium that CCM carries for different mileages:
I don't think this paints the correct picture though. The trendlines are diverging at higher mileages whereas I think the opposite will apply - for a car with a galactic odometer reading the fact that it has CCM brakes will be less important. However, at "normal" mileages, the premium seems to be about £5k.
Cheers,
Aldous Voice.
red_duke said:
Great insight Aldous, thank you for drilling down on the CCM effect. I confess my interest is purely selfish as I've just had the £10,500 factory CCM brake kit fitted to my '05 F430.
It would be nice to see some return come resale time
No worries. Did you get the brakes fitted by a main dealer? I've got a set of very special CCM's in the cupboard under my stairs ready to go on the car. How did it change the braking in your opinion? Did they fit the different brake servo?It would be nice to see some return come resale time
KenC said:
Remember that CCM brakes became standard some time in 2008 so an advert for these cars may not mention them.
This is my concern Ken. Do we know when the switch over happened? I might be able to build in a extra bit that automatically flags for CCM for the later cars.KenC said:
As far as I can remember it was the 2008 model year but I can't be specific on dates.
Edit, just found this:
Bologna, December 5th 2007 – Ferrari has
announced to the media and its clients at the Bologna Motor Show 2007 that Brembo brakes featuring carbon ceramic material (CCM) discs will be provided as standard on the entire Prancing Horse range from 2008.
There are some 2008 cars with CCM and some without. I have set the algo so that 2009 cars are automatically flagged as CCM and if a 2008 car is advertised without saying it has CCM then I flag is as "Poss". I will then eyeball the Poss cars to check what is fitted.Edit, just found this:
Bologna, December 5th 2007 – Ferrari has
announced to the media and its clients at the Bologna Motor Show 2007 that Brembo brakes featuring carbon ceramic material (CCM) discs will be provided as standard on the entire Prancing Horse range from 2008.
Edited by KenC on Saturday 4th January 17:55
red_duke said:
Fitted by Graypaul Ferrari Nottingham. A larger brake booster comes as part of the kit. They also reprogram the brake ECU to enable the brake wear indicator algorithm (for what it's worth).
The brakes are superb, quiet, and powerful. Steering feedback is greatly improved and no brake dust!
Great stuff. Can't wait to get mine fitted.The brakes are superb, quiet, and powerful. Steering feedback is greatly improved and no brake dust!
It's that time of the month again...
For 360 prices head here. For 458 prices head over here.
Average asking prices have increased for the third month in a row, with a modest MoM 0.22% increase. The headline price index now stands at 97.42.
The number of cars for sale has increased from 59 to 74:
Here is the main data table, including the split between CCM and steel braked cars:
Here is the latest chart of asking price vs mileage:
And here's the table of theoretical asking prices vs mileage:
Finally the yellow spiders for Adz - no more have come onto the market however the one that is for sale seems to be hanging around like a bad fart.
Let me know if you want anything else.
Cheers,
Aldous Voice.
For 360 prices head here. For 458 prices head over here.
Average asking prices have increased for the third month in a row, with a modest MoM 0.22% increase. The headline price index now stands at 97.42.
The number of cars for sale has increased from 59 to 74:
Here is the main data table, including the split between CCM and steel braked cars:
Here is the latest chart of asking price vs mileage:
And here's the table of theoretical asking prices vs mileage:
Finally the yellow spiders for Adz - no more have come onto the market however the one that is for sale seems to be hanging around like a bad fart.
Let me know if you want anything else.
Cheers,
Aldous Voice.
red_duke said:
Excellent. Rosso F1 coupes with carbon brakes still seem to be a valuable combo. I'm surprised that Spiders have lost their original price premium over the coupes though.
Really appreciate your time in putting this together each month Aldous.
Have you started your CCM brake install yet?
No worries. I've not started the CCM install yet - I've been concentrating on finishing some work on the house that started last March! I need to source a CCM-specific servo as that's the bit I'm missing. Also need to find time to sort out my carbon seats and a whole host of other things for the car...Really appreciate your time in putting this together each month Aldous.
Have you started your CCM brake install yet?
Cheers,
Aldous.
Edited by voicey on Sunday 2nd February 19:28
markst said:
I wonder if you can record just how long cars have been advertised for....but I not sure how prices can be rising....as I can think of a few that have dropped in price....
..but putting that to one side ....some ads have been on for MONTHS ....and that yellow one is not the worst....lol
I've been trying for a while to build something that tracks how long cars have been advertised for. The main problem is that dealers are constantly changing the adverts so there's no consistency. I've noticed that they will change the price by £100 or tweak the mileage a touch. I think they do it because the default sorting of adverts is "Newest with images first". Adverts that have been changed are treated as new and thus appear at the top of the list of results. Damn annoying when you need to try and program a computer to spot trends!..but putting that to one side ....some ads have been on for MONTHS ....and that yellow one is not the worst....lol
For the last couple of months I have been lifting the name of the vendor off the adverts which will help in identifying cars that have been hanging around but it'll take time to build up a picture. If you have any cars in mind I would be happy to eyeball my data and manually tell you how long it has been listed fir sale.
Cheers,
Aldous
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