Supercars: becoming mass market
Discussion
Something that's been bothering me for a while: what are we going to do with all these supercars?
I've not been able to find any hard numbers (perhaps a more skilled sleuth will know the specifics), but if you consider that Ferrari (for instance) are making roughly double the numbers of cars per year they were making in the 90s, which in turn was roughly double what they were making in the 80s, a lot of cars are being churned out. Extend this to the other manufacturers, and then couple it with the fact these cars don't tend to be scrapped, and we're looking at huge growth of the number of these things in the market.
No idea of the specifics, but I'd guess that there are maybe 5x more supercars in the market now than in 1995 (??).
Emotionally, I don't know about you, but I feel these effects quite acutely. I find myself buzzing if I see, say, a 308 out and about - just as I did when I was a kid - but a 488 or a Aventador may as well just be a nice BMW to me. In my whole life I've only seen *one* Diablo out in the wild, whereas I'd say that living in London I see a modern Lambo near daily now.
That's just me of course - the more interesting question perhaps is what this growth will do to the market.
Here's my prediction.
The business model of companies like Mercedes, BMW, and Audi has for years been not one of ownership, but upgrade - just like you might do with your phone. You lease the car for a period of time and after a couple of years, you upgrade it to the latest 5-series, A6 or whatever. The effect of this model has been good for the manufacturers (endless reliable streams of cash), but of course terrible for depreciation on the cars (only the latest version is desirable).
In contrast, I'd say the business model of supercar brands in the "glory days" was something more like an ownership model - whereby each new model was relatively unique, and wasn't made obsolete by the one following it. People would then buy the cars more sporadically, hold onto them, and trade them in the second hand market. Not great for manufacturers, but very much limited depreciation since each car was in some way special.
The gameplan of the supercar brands is clearly to move from the latter model to the former. Finance is making new supercars roughly as accessible to people as top of the line Mercs used to be in the 90s - cars for the very well off, but not super rich - and so they can start to cultivate a rolling market of people who will just upgrade every 2/3 years. SUVs will accelerate this massively, and Porsche has already fully made this transition (I'd imagine they're setting the example they all want to follow). Meanwhile the likes of BMW and Mercedes are now cars of the middle classes - so the whole ladder has essentially shifted down a notch.
With this shift, the position in the market that used to be occupied by normal supercars (like the Diablo or 355) is now occupied by the special editions (like the Senna), which are being churned out in a manner similar to normal supercars of the past, and which are only accessible to "the rich".
The result of all this?
- BMW style depreciation eventually hitting mainstream supercars (e.g. the 488 equivalent in 10 years)
- Ferrari, Lambo, McLaren becoming badges you see daily
- Only cars £500k+ holding value (already seeing this)
As for the effect on old (e.g. pre-2005) supercar values? I'm not sure but I would hope (as a 355 owner) they would be unaffected. It seems that Porsche's transition to being the new BMW has done nothing to dent the enthusiasm for old 911s, so I'd imagine classic Ferraris and Lambos won't be dragged down by their shift to the mass market.
In conclusion though, I find this all a bit sad. It would be nice to have at least one badge out there that sets you pulse racing on the odd occasions you glimpse it - but I guess those days are gone.
I've not been able to find any hard numbers (perhaps a more skilled sleuth will know the specifics), but if you consider that Ferrari (for instance) are making roughly double the numbers of cars per year they were making in the 90s, which in turn was roughly double what they were making in the 80s, a lot of cars are being churned out. Extend this to the other manufacturers, and then couple it with the fact these cars don't tend to be scrapped, and we're looking at huge growth of the number of these things in the market.
No idea of the specifics, but I'd guess that there are maybe 5x more supercars in the market now than in 1995 (??).
Emotionally, I don't know about you, but I feel these effects quite acutely. I find myself buzzing if I see, say, a 308 out and about - just as I did when I was a kid - but a 488 or a Aventador may as well just be a nice BMW to me. In my whole life I've only seen *one* Diablo out in the wild, whereas I'd say that living in London I see a modern Lambo near daily now.
That's just me of course - the more interesting question perhaps is what this growth will do to the market.
Here's my prediction.
The business model of companies like Mercedes, BMW, and Audi has for years been not one of ownership, but upgrade - just like you might do with your phone. You lease the car for a period of time and after a couple of years, you upgrade it to the latest 5-series, A6 or whatever. The effect of this model has been good for the manufacturers (endless reliable streams of cash), but of course terrible for depreciation on the cars (only the latest version is desirable).
In contrast, I'd say the business model of supercar brands in the "glory days" was something more like an ownership model - whereby each new model was relatively unique, and wasn't made obsolete by the one following it. People would then buy the cars more sporadically, hold onto them, and trade them in the second hand market. Not great for manufacturers, but very much limited depreciation since each car was in some way special.
The gameplan of the supercar brands is clearly to move from the latter model to the former. Finance is making new supercars roughly as accessible to people as top of the line Mercs used to be in the 90s - cars for the very well off, but not super rich - and so they can start to cultivate a rolling market of people who will just upgrade every 2/3 years. SUVs will accelerate this massively, and Porsche has already fully made this transition (I'd imagine they're setting the example they all want to follow). Meanwhile the likes of BMW and Mercedes are now cars of the middle classes - so the whole ladder has essentially shifted down a notch.
With this shift, the position in the market that used to be occupied by normal supercars (like the Diablo or 355) is now occupied by the special editions (like the Senna), which are being churned out in a manner similar to normal supercars of the past, and which are only accessible to "the rich".
The result of all this?
- BMW style depreciation eventually hitting mainstream supercars (e.g. the 488 equivalent in 10 years)
- Ferrari, Lambo, McLaren becoming badges you see daily
- Only cars £500k+ holding value (already seeing this)
As for the effect on old (e.g. pre-2005) supercar values? I'm not sure but I would hope (as a 355 owner) they would be unaffected. It seems that Porsche's transition to being the new BMW has done nothing to dent the enthusiasm for old 911s, so I'd imagine classic Ferraris and Lambos won't be dragged down by their shift to the mass market.
In conclusion though, I find this all a bit sad. It would be nice to have at least one badge out there that sets you pulse racing on the odd occasions you glimpse it - but I guess those days are gone.
p1stonhead said:
You live in London where wealth congregates.
Outside of London (another rich cities) it’s still quite rare to see a supercar.
And there are plenty of brands which are still exceptionally rare even in and around London. Bugatti, Pagani, Koenigsegg, Singer to name but a few.
Good points both.Outside of London (another rich cities) it’s still quite rare to see a supercar.
And there are plenty of brands which are still exceptionally rare even in and around London. Bugatti, Pagani, Koenigsegg, Singer to name but a few.
Edited by p1stonhead on Sunday 30th June 09:42
I think the bottom line of my point is that Ferrari, Lambo, McLaren will copy the Porsche model.
Porsches are still special cars— but in terms of exoticness they have fallen to the level Mercedes used to occupy.
Drl22 said:
I think the attitude I’ve seen a few so it’s not worth looking at it is odd. I live in a part of the world (not London!) where just this weekend I’ve seen a Chrion, Veyron, 2x f12’s, 4 x aventadors, 3 x Huracans, a 488, a 458, 3 x urus and more but not once have I turned round and thought that’s not worth looking at. Each one is a stunning piece of kit which I’m excited to see every time. It’s just an affluent area and I for one think it’s great to see more of them on the road for us all to enjoy. They are cars, we need to buy them, drive them and enjoy them while we still can. The costs of owning a supercar in the future, when electric becomes mainstream, will be astronomical!
Don’t mean to say that they aren’t great or not worth looking at- that’s not the main talking point I wanted to provoke with the thread, although I can see why it’s been picked up on!Edited by Drl22 on Sunday 30th June 17:56
My main point is the potential shift in the market with the manufacturers to the upgrade model, as evidenced by 1) the growing numbers of these cars, 2) the similarity of models to their predecessors, and 3) it being the only way these brands can sustain growth with so many old cars floating around.
The cars stay amazing, but the context in which they’re sold, if it continues to accelerate, changes the way people start to perceive them.
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