Tuesday 12th December 2017

Playing the futures market

Can't afford the car of your dreams? Start saving now for the bargains of 2021

---

During an especially spawny period of last month I was the temporary custodian of an Aston Martin DB11 V12, and I don't mind saying I fell in love with it a little bit. Despite the season's sub-optimal conditions, the car's talent as a luxury GT was clear. It's charismatic, rapid, handles well - despite its 4.7-metre, 1,910kg vitals - and is filled with more leather than Batman's favourite closet. It was the ride that swayed me, though - all that noise, poise and performance and enough comfort to span 850 miles without so much as a brow-furrowing knock.

Suffice it to say, I want one. But at £157,900 before even winking at the options list, the DB11 V12 is somewhat out of my price range. Putting PCP deals aside, the only viable solution is patience: wait for old father time to wreak havoc on the thing's value, then swoop in like a shameless automotive scavenger.

But how long a wait are we talking? I turned to the residuals mystics at CAP, whose forecasts predict the ravaging effects of time and mileage on the value of almost every car on sale today. The longest forecast period is four years, and the maximum mileage 135,000. A few keystrokes revealed the painful truth that even at that unrealistically huge mileage, the earliest DB11 V12 (which is a 2016/66-plate) will still be worth £41,325 in four years. Of course, that's a very rough estimate and is subject to vehicle condition, market performance, oil prices, government regulation, the price of eggs, adiabatic lapse rates in Upper Saxony and who wins the Gloucestershire cheese-rolling title that year.

It's probably the most informed guess you'll find, though, and is sadly still too rich for my blood. For those piqued by this valuation, however, CAP also says that around £60,000 could buy the same car with a more realistic 65,000 miles on the clock, or a DB11 V8 with the same mileage that's six months newer. Both of which seem like a bargain - for someone.

It got me thinking, just how attainable (or otherwise) will others among the recent crop of performance metal be in four years? So, setting our sights on the furthest horizon of CAP's depreciation telescope, here are 10 examples at various arbitrary price points to start saving for now. Can you picture buying one of these cars for yourself come Christmas 2021?

(Valuations are based on the oldest possible plate for the model in question, even if only a handful might have been registered then; arbitrary is the word of the day.)

Lamborghini Huracán Performante - £69,650
Year: 2016/66 plate (will be five years old)
Mileage: 57,000 miles
Price new: £207,980
Search for a Lamborghini Huracan here

Bentley Bentayga W12 - £49,900
Year: 2015/65 plate (will be six years old)
Mileage: 70,000 miles
Price new: £160,255
Search for a Bentley Bentayga here

Mercedes AMG GT Roadster - £39,850
Year: 2016/66 plate (will be five years old)
Mileage: 54,000 miles
Price new: £108,945
Search for a Mercedes AMG GT here

Jaguar F-Type R (facelift) - £30,000
Year: 2016/66 plate (will be five years old)
Mileage: 61,000 miles
Price new: £88,860
Search for Jaguar F-Type Rs here

Audi SQ5 - £20,000
Year: 2016/66 plate (will be five years old)
Mileage: 76,000 miles
Price new: £50,400
Search for Audi SQ5s here

Alfa Romeo Giulia Quadrifoglio - £19,950
Year: 2016/16 plate (will be five-and-a-half years old)
Mileage: 64,000 miles
(Arguably even more tempting: £10,875 for a 2016/66-plate Giulia Veloce with the same mileage)
Price new: £60,795
Search for Alfa Romeo Giulia Quadrifoglios here

Honda Civic Type R - £10,000
Year: 2016/66 plate (will be five years old)
Mileage: 72,000 miles
Price new: £30,195
Search for Honda Civic Type Rs here

Ford Focus RS - £9,975
Year: 2015/65 plate (will be six years old)
Mileage: 52,000 miles
Price new: £29,700
Search for a Ford Focus RS here

Abarth 124 Spider - £9,000
Year: 2016/16 plate (will be five-and-a-half years old)
Mileage: 33,000 miles
Price new: £29,420
Search for an Abarth 124 Spider here

Skoda Octavia vRS 245 Estate DSG - £8,000
Year: 2016/66 plate (will be five years old)
Mileage: 60,000 miles
Price new: £29,985
Search for a Skoda Octavia here

Richard J Webber

[Jonny TVR]

So you think a Lamborghini Huracán Performante will be £70K in 5 years time .. don't think so

[esuuv]

I've been waiting for F Types to suffer typical jag levels of depreciation as that article predicts - they don't.....................

[Helicopter123]

Some interesting observations, some will be pessimistic and some not...

CAP are the industry experts though, and their estimates go a long way to determining PCP quotes so they do matter.

[Eviltad]

Focus RS MK3 takes a huge hit compared to Focus RS Mk2 which hasn't budged much in 4 years.

[TooMany2cvs]

Jonny TVR said:

So you think a Lamborghini Huracán Performante will be £70K in 5 years time .. don't think so

<nods>
Likewise the £40k AMG.

Just apply the same formulae to similar tin from 4-5yrs ago to see how daft it is when you're looking at this sort of bubble tin. Apply it to the Focus, Audi, Honda - all the prosaic stuff, sure. But not to stuff like the Lambo or AMG... That's just daft.

[LasseV]

Problem is, i don't like those cars that much... Only F-type manual and 124 abarth are interesting me. Others are meh. Sign of times?

Huracan Perfomante is an awesome car thats for sure. No way it is 70k in 5 years....

[Sebastian Tombs]

The only Lamborghinis that I have seen anywhere near 70k are Gallardos that have been crashed.

[Collaudatore]

Quadrifoglio - £19,950

I'm feeling lucky

[topless360]

What a pointless article, all of these valuations are miles off the mark.

A Mk3 Focus RS at 6 years old for £9975? AMG GT Roadster for £40k? Dream on.

[Never you mind]

Helicopter123 said:

Some interesting observations, some will be pessimistic and some not...

CAP are the industry experts though, and their estimates go a long way to determining PCP quotes so they do matter.

CAP algorithm simply doesn't work with stuff like the Hurracan or in fact any supercar. Completely different market. I'm willing to put my life on the line and say that a 5year old Performante won't have done 57K miles and nor will it be £69K.

[irish boy]

Interesting article. Difficult to predict. I’m keeping an eye open for an f30 330d and even 2012 examples with sensible miles are £17k+.
Used car market seems to be strong at the minute.

[Dale487]

Never you mind said:

Helicopter123 said:

Some interesting observations, some will be pessimistic and some not...

CAP are the industry experts though, and their estimates go a long way to determining PCP quotes so they do matter.

CAP algorithm simply doesn't work with stuff like the Hurracan or in fact any supercar. Completely different market. I'm willing to put my life on the line and say that a 5year old Performante won't have done 57K miles and nor will it be £69K.

The one that has done 57K miles instead of 6k miles might be £69K - you might even find an ex-track experience car with even more miles, not sure I'd want it though.

Being more realistic, I'm looking forward to seeing what Hyundai i30 N Performance prices do.

[Helicopter123]

Dale487 said:

Never you mind said:

Helicopter123 said:

Some interesting observations, some will be pessimistic and some not...

CAP are the industry experts though, and their estimates go a long way to determining PCP quotes so they do matter.

CAP algorithm simply doesn't work with stuff like the Hurracan or in fact any supercar. Completely different market. I'm willing to put my life on the line and say that a 5year old Performante won't have done 57K miles and nor will it be £69K.

The one that has done 57K miles instead of 6k miles might be £69K - you might even find an ex-track experience car with even more miles, not sure I'd want it though.

Being more realistic, I'm looking forward to seeing what Hyundai i30 N Performance prices do.

They will need to sell one new first of all...

[TooMany2cvs]

Dale487 said:

The one that has done 57K miles instead of 6k miles might be £69K - you might even find an ex-track experience car with even more miles, not sure I'd want it though.

It'll still say 6k on the clock, though.

[eein]

I prefer the less obvious stuff - having earlier this year paid £30k for a 4 year old BMW 760Li V12 F02 facelift with only 20k miles on the clock (and from BMW Park Lane dealer), I'd fancy the current G11/12 760Li retailing at £150k will also be at £30k in 4 years time. It's the cheapest way in to the <5yr old V12 world I could find.

[Luke.]

This whole story is a total nonsense.

[Dale487]

Helicopter123 said:

Dale487 said:

Never you mind said:

Helicopter123 said:

Some interesting observations, some will be pessimistic and some not...

CAP are the industry experts though, and their estimates go a long way to determining PCP quotes so they do matter.

CAP algorithm simply doesn't work with stuff like the Hurracan or in fact any supercar. Completely different market. I'm willing to put my life on the line and say that a 5year old Performante won't have done 57K miles and nor will it be £69K.

The one that has done 57K miles instead of 6k miles might be £69K - you might even find an ex-track experience car with even more miles, not sure I'd want it though.

Being more realistic, I'm looking forward to seeing what Hyundai i30 N Performance prices do.

They will need to sell one new first of all...

There'll be a couple of ex-press fleet cars on top of the dealer demos and Hyundai UK employee cars - so about 10 then.

[Turbobanana]

As others have eloquently put it, trying to guess the used market for a supercar (and to a lesser extent, any car) is fraught with danger.

That's not the point of the article, however. It was written solely to make you go to the Classifieds.

[jwwbowe]

It is food for thought. The valuation of the focus rs undermines the article though, absolute nonsense, even if oil was $200 per barrel there'd still be a demand for them (the RS MK2 price is so strong and mk1 are rising).

Saying that while I don't necessarily believe those future valuations (or how they are made) the Alfa and AMG GT have potential to drop off the radar price wise then a few years later become very valuable.

[TwinExit]

What a load of cabbage.

.....or a carefully leaked fake news to misdirect buyers and thus manipulating the used market a little for their own advantage.