Dubai property prices 'will never decline'
Discussion
mickken said:
Dubai is headed for a fall....how can it not be. A worldwide recession is just that....a worldwide recession.
All this talk of Emiritees getting free land etc, etc.....how many local families are there in Dubai? A small handful.
The prices have rised there at an astrononical rate and so are due a price correction....you cannot fight the market by throwing money at it, just ask Nick Leeson (sp!!)
Ask intelligent people who live there how much confidence there is in the market...! Remember Savills Foxtons, The Council of Mortgage Lenders and RICS all went on the record predicting between a 2% -8% RISE in property prices in 2008. They forecasted this in OCT 2007.
Dubai is a totally false property bubble - both the purchase and rental prices are fixed artificially high (over supply for years but no fall in prices anyone?) and there is nothing there but the hotels, shops and shopping malls of the past 15 years. The place is too hot to holiday for half of the year, it isn't particularly close to western Europe and as such will fall out of fashion when the next hot spot comes along.All this talk of Emiritees getting free land etc, etc.....how many local families are there in Dubai? A small handful.
The prices have rised there at an astrononical rate and so are due a price correction....you cannot fight the market by throwing money at it, just ask Nick Leeson (sp!!)
Ask intelligent people who live there how much confidence there is in the market...! Remember Savills Foxtons, The Council of Mortgage Lenders and RICS all went on the record predicting between a 2% -8% RISE in property prices in 2008. They forecasted this in OCT 2007.
I've worked around the gulf and the Arabs joke that you could set up a stall selling shoe boxes and brits would still buy them - people really have been taken for a ride.
until the oil runs out.mickken said:
Hitch78 said:
mickken said:
Dubai is headed for a fall....how can it not be. A worldwide recession is just that....a worldwide recession.
All this talk of Emiritees getting free land etc, etc.....how many local families are there in Dubai? A small handful.
The prices have rised there at an astrononical rate and so are due a price correction....you cannot fight the market by throwing money at it, just ask Nick Leeson (sp!!)
Ask intelligent people who live there how much confidence there is in the market...! Remember Savills Foxtons, The Council of Mortgage Lenders and RICS all went on the record predicting between a 2% -8% RISE in property prices in 2008. They forecasted this in OCT 2007.
Dubai is a totally false property bubble - both the purchase and rental prices are fixed artificially high (over supply for years but no fall in prices anyone?) and there is nothing there but the hotels, shops and shopping malls of the past 15 years. The place is too hot to holiday for half of the year, it isn't particularly close to western Europe and as such will fall out of fashion when the next hot spot comes along.All this talk of Emiritees getting free land etc, etc.....how many local families are there in Dubai? A small handful.
The prices have rised there at an astrononical rate and so are due a price correction....you cannot fight the market by throwing money at it, just ask Nick Leeson (sp!!)
Ask intelligent people who live there how much confidence there is in the market...! Remember Savills Foxtons, The Council of Mortgage Lenders and RICS all went on the record predicting between a 2% -8% RISE in property prices in 2008. They forecasted this in OCT 2007.
I've worked around the gulf and the Arabs joke that you could set up a stall selling shoe boxes and brits would still buy them - people really have been taken for a ride.
"My Grandfather arrived at meetings on Camels. My Father arrived at meetings on Camels. I arrive in a Roll Royce and my Son will arrive to meetings in a Ferrari, but his children will arrive on Camels"
It may not literally be the case, but the guy was making a vaid point.
Hmmm never decline you say? Not sure I can agree with that concept. I have been in Dubai for 5 years now, always in the same property. Our landlord is an Emirati who owns multiple villas in 'new Dubai' and has put our rent up by between 5% and 7% pa. We are currently paying well under Dhs200k for our villa. I was down at the landlords office last week and he showed me a list of the rents that he is currently receiving, all around the same level as we are paying, due to being occupied by the same tenants for a long period of time. He then went on to tell me of a property of around the same size as ours that is coming vacant next month, he plans to put this on the market at....wait for it....Dhs500k pa (nearly £80k pa) up from Dhs180k he is currently receiving.
Now, I am fairly lucky in that I am on a decent package and the company pays for my rent, however there is no way that they would pay rent of this level and there is no way I would make up the difference either.
The story I hear from friends and business contacts is the same, rent is getting too expensive for people to justify living here and for the first time since I have lived here expats are moving on to pastures new.
The property market needs a correction, and soon, to maintain the ability of working folk, and their employers, to actually afford to live here.
I agree with comments about the Marina development, we have friends that live there and they estimate no more than a 25% occupancy, less in some towers.
Gosh that was a seious first post, shan't happen again. I will ensure much kicking in of backdoors, OXO tower capers, lose morals and pedantry from here on in.
Now, I am fairly lucky in that I am on a decent package and the company pays for my rent, however there is no way that they would pay rent of this level and there is no way I would make up the difference either.
The story I hear from friends and business contacts is the same, rent is getting too expensive for people to justify living here and for the first time since I have lived here expats are moving on to pastures new.
The property market needs a correction, and soon, to maintain the ability of working folk, and their employers, to actually afford to live here.
I agree with comments about the Marina development, we have friends that live there and they estimate no more than a 25% occupancy, less in some towers.
Gosh that was a seious first post, shan't happen again. I will ensure much kicking in of backdoors, OXO tower capers, lose morals and pedantry from here on in.
Einion Yrth said:
Percy Bysshe Shelley said:
I met a traveller from an antique land
Who said: "Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert. Near them, on the sand,
Half sunk, a shattered visage lies, whose frown,
And wrinkled lip, and sneer of cold command,
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things.
The hand that mocked them, and the heart that fed.
And on the pedestal these words appear:
'My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings:
Look on my works, ye mighty, and despair!'
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away
Who said: "Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert. Near them, on the sand,
Half sunk, a shattered visage lies, whose frown,
And wrinkled lip, and sneer of cold command,
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things.
The hand that mocked them, and the heart that fed.
And on the pedestal these words appear:
'My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings:
Look on my works, ye mighty, and despair!'
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away
There are a heap of empty apartments in and around parts of Dubai, some are owned by individuals and are not used or rented (Russians, Brit holiday homes, Iranians, Indian tax dodgers etc) there are also a lot of blocks that are totally empty waiting for timeshare laws to be signed off.
Yes the market has stopped and yes prices will fall, not sure by how much but they will fall. Rents however are not necessarily going to drop since that is where the shortages are.
I don't see this as a fad, maybe the second home thing is but most people live and work here, many of us for years now, and while the tourist numbers will tail off there is plenty of room for them to reduce hotel prices to make the place a bargain again to fill the rooms .
The big high ticket items will be put on the back burner (canal, 1km tower etc) and the place will take a breather, I wouldn't bet on it going bust any time soon though.
Yes the market has stopped and yes prices will fall, not sure by how much but they will fall. Rents however are not necessarily going to drop since that is where the shortages are.
I don't see this as a fad, maybe the second home thing is but most people live and work here, many of us for years now, and while the tourist numbers will tail off there is plenty of room for them to reduce hotel prices to make the place a bargain again to fill the rooms .
The big high ticket items will be put on the back burner (canal, 1km tower etc) and the place will take a breather, I wouldn't bet on it going bust any time soon though.
crossle said:
Blib said:
a prominent Egyptian economist
(Stifles laugh at possible oxymoron...)Back to topic, a famous quote from 1929: “Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.” It seems many fools and their money get to part every once in a while.
2006-2007 - rent prices rise dramatically as there is a housing shortage.
2007 - anyone on a decent wage (and some not!) buy a cheap villa/appartment 'off-plan' as an investment for future letting or living in. Due for completion in 2009.
2008 - More of the same, more developments, more 'investors'. Some developments 'delayed'....
The future as oilydan sees it (I have a crytall ball, don'cha know)
2009- developments finished, everyone either dumps it on the letting market or moves out of their rented appartment and into their new home.
'POP' goes the weasle.
2007 - anyone on a decent wage (and some not!) buy a cheap villa/appartment 'off-plan' as an investment for future letting or living in. Due for completion in 2009.
2008 - More of the same, more developments, more 'investors'. Some developments 'delayed'....
The future as oilydan sees it (I have a crytall ball, don'cha know)
2009- developments finished, everyone either dumps it on the letting market or moves out of their rented appartment and into their new home.
'POP' goes the weasle.
Guy at the office has made about 500k sterling buying and flipping properties over here. Never too greedy, always got out when he made a sensible amount. Sold his last one about 9 months ago, and rented a place in the same building.
He is not buying here any more (although he does have one in AD, which is a totally different market)
He is not buying here any more (although he does have one in AD, which is a totally different market)
I posted on here back in September that that Dubai was being affected by the credit crunch. My understanding is that property rents are controlled by the government, and once you rent a place the landlord can only out the rent up by %% or so pa. Therefore they have tried to encourage tenants to move out at the end of the term after a year so it can be let at open market values.
So thiose who have rented for some time will be paying low rents.
So thiose who have rented for some time will be paying low rents.
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