Number of Porsche's still on the road??
Discussion
A bloke in my local tonight said that Steve Wright (Radio 2) had stated as a 'factoid' that 60 percent of the Porsches ever built are still on the road. Does anyone know if this is true, where is it stated? Pretty impressive if it is true, especially with the number of them getting bent/stolen around here at the moment.
andrewws said:
A bloke in my local tonight said that Steve Wright (Radio 2) had stated as a 'factoid' that 60 percent of the Porsches ever built are still on the road. Does anyone know if this is true, where is it stated? Pretty impressive if it is true, especially with the number of them getting bent/stolen around here at the moment.
I heard that and recall that the figure quoted was 80%, I've no idea of the truth.5 years ago it was calculated from an insurance business prominent in Sports cars - that it was 70%.
What ever the actual figure is - it is stated often that there are more old Porsche's left on the road than any other make of car of similar age - and this seems reasonable to me.
It means of course that there are more cars to be maintained every year and more in the market. While this is good news for repair and service centres - we have always been worried that one day there may just be too many old Porsche's for the used car market to absorb and that if this happened prices and values would fall more than before (and we have posted on this on here and elsewhere for several years). Unfortunately it is not what people want to hear so they often dissagree - hoping that will miraculously make their cars worth more - but knowledge is power and so we have to be truthful about what we forsee - even if it is unpopular.
All this would be true even if the numbers sold remained the same each year - however - the numbers sold have steadily increased in the last few years - doubling in the last 7 years - and this will have an affect on the numbers feeding through as older cars for years ahead - every year more than the previous year of any given age - which again - we expect to reduce sales values compared to what prices would have been if fewer numbers had been sold.
This is not all bad news because it means more people will be able to afford a Porsche - more will join clubs, more spares will be sold (and spares prices may go down a bit) and there may be more competition and more people servicing the market - but it should logically als9o mean a bit more depreciation than we were used to say 5 or 10 years ago. In my view this could be worth incurring if you will be able to buy a newer used Porsche than you used to be able to (for the same money) - have less age related expenses (like paintwork, bodywork, electrical failures etc) even though you may lose a little more when you come to sell it.
Ultimately it will create a need for more less expensive service and repair centres than Main Agents can afford to supply (with their need to cater for those who can afford a new Porsche - with all the trimmings).
Baz
What ever the actual figure is - it is stated often that there are more old Porsche's left on the road than any other make of car of similar age - and this seems reasonable to me.
It means of course that there are more cars to be maintained every year and more in the market. While this is good news for repair and service centres - we have always been worried that one day there may just be too many old Porsche's for the used car market to absorb and that if this happened prices and values would fall more than before (and we have posted on this on here and elsewhere for several years). Unfortunately it is not what people want to hear so they often dissagree - hoping that will miraculously make their cars worth more - but knowledge is power and so we have to be truthful about what we forsee - even if it is unpopular.
All this would be true even if the numbers sold remained the same each year - however - the numbers sold have steadily increased in the last few years - doubling in the last 7 years - and this will have an affect on the numbers feeding through as older cars for years ahead - every year more than the previous year of any given age - which again - we expect to reduce sales values compared to what prices would have been if fewer numbers had been sold.
This is not all bad news because it means more people will be able to afford a Porsche - more will join clubs, more spares will be sold (and spares prices may go down a bit) and there may be more competition and more people servicing the market - but it should logically als9o mean a bit more depreciation than we were used to say 5 or 10 years ago. In my view this could be worth incurring if you will be able to buy a newer used Porsche than you used to be able to (for the same money) - have less age related expenses (like paintwork, bodywork, electrical failures etc) even though you may lose a little more when you come to sell it.
Ultimately it will create a need for more less expensive service and repair centres than Main Agents can afford to supply (with their need to cater for those who can afford a new Porsche - with all the trimmings).
Baz
Similar figures are quoted for several other makes such as Land Rover (Defender), Rolls Royce, Ferrari, etc.
Porsche's figures will start to become distorted as they are now a much bigger volume producer. For a while this figure may rise, before it falls as aging models are scrapped. It's the most collectable RS/GT/CS models that will survive in the greatest numbers.
Porsche's figures will start to become distorted as they are now a much bigger volume producer. For a while this figure may rise, before it falls as aging models are scrapped. It's the most collectable RS/GT/CS models that will survive in the greatest numbers.
hartech said:
5 years ago it was calculated from an insurance business prominent in Sports cars - that it was 70%.
What ever the actual figure is - it is stated often that there are more old Porsche's left on the road than any other make of car of similar age - and this seems reasonable to me.
It means of course that there are more cars to be maintained every year and more in the market. While this is good news for repair and service centres - we have always been worried that one day there may just be too many old Porsche's for the used car market to absorb and that if this happened prices and values would fall more than before (and we have posted on this on here and elsewhere for several years). Unfortunately it is not what people want to hear so they often dissagree - hoping that will miraculously make their cars worth more - but knowledge is power and so we have to be truthful about what we forsee - even if it is unpopular.
All this would be true even if the numbers sold remained the same each year - however - the numbers sold have steadily increased in the last few years - doubling in the last 7 years - and this will have an affect on the numbers feeding through as older cars for years ahead - every year more than the previous year of any given age - which again - we expect to reduce sales values compared to what prices would have been if fewer numbers had been sold.
This is not all bad news because it means more people will be able to afford a Porsche - more will join clubs, more spares will be sold (and spares prices may go down a bit) and there may be more competition and more people servicing the market - but it should logically als9o mean a bit more depreciation than we were used to say 5 or 10 years ago. In my view this could be worth incurring if you will be able to buy a newer used Porsche than you used to be able to (for the same money) - have less age related expenses (like paintwork, bodywork, electrical failures etc) even though you may lose a little more when you come to sell it.
Ultimately it will create a need for more less expensive service and repair centres than Main Agents can afford to supply (with their need to cater for those who can afford a new Porsche - with all the trimmings).
Baz
Sorry Baz have to disagree with your assesment.What ever the actual figure is - it is stated often that there are more old Porsche's left on the road than any other make of car of similar age - and this seems reasonable to me.
It means of course that there are more cars to be maintained every year and more in the market. While this is good news for repair and service centres - we have always been worried that one day there may just be too many old Porsche's for the used car market to absorb and that if this happened prices and values would fall more than before (and we have posted on this on here and elsewhere for several years). Unfortunately it is not what people want to hear so they often dissagree - hoping that will miraculously make their cars worth more - but knowledge is power and so we have to be truthful about what we forsee - even if it is unpopular.
All this would be true even if the numbers sold remained the same each year - however - the numbers sold have steadily increased in the last few years - doubling in the last 7 years - and this will have an affect on the numbers feeding through as older cars for years ahead - every year more than the previous year of any given age - which again - we expect to reduce sales values compared to what prices would have been if fewer numbers had been sold.
This is not all bad news because it means more people will be able to afford a Porsche - more will join clubs, more spares will be sold (and spares prices may go down a bit) and there may be more competition and more people servicing the market - but it should logically als9o mean a bit more depreciation than we were used to say 5 or 10 years ago. In my view this could be worth incurring if you will be able to buy a newer used Porsche than you used to be able to (for the same money) - have less age related expenses (like paintwork, bodywork, electrical failures etc) even though you may lose a little more when you come to sell it.
Ultimately it will create a need for more less expensive service and repair centres than Main Agents can afford to supply (with their need to cater for those who can afford a new Porsche - with all the trimmings).
Baz
The 911 has been in production for what? over 40 years now. It has only been a mass produced car for the last 10 since the introduction of the 996 that was only in production for 5 years so there is still a relatively small numbers of cars on the road.
Definately not too many for the market to absorb causing a price crash as you imply .
Oop's I seem to have started another 'how much is my car worth' thread again.
But at 60 percent it is a very impressive record, a credit to the marque quality really.
My pub conversation was sparked off by talking about an accident locally, where a Boxter hit a van. The car driver quite badly hurt, van pulled out without looking onto main road. But the interesting thing is that the locals immediatley assumed the porsche driver caused the accident. I wonder if that would have been the case if he he had been in a Vectra or the like? (he would probably have died). They thought the 60 percent figure even more amazing considering that they consider Porsche drivers as dangerous, myself excluded of course.
Just a thought.......
But at 60 percent it is a very impressive record, a credit to the marque quality really.
My pub conversation was sparked off by talking about an accident locally, where a Boxter hit a van. The car driver quite badly hurt, van pulled out without looking onto main road. But the interesting thing is that the locals immediatley assumed the porsche driver caused the accident. I wonder if that would have been the case if he he had been in a Vectra or the like? (he would probably have died). They thought the 60 percent figure even more amazing considering that they consider Porsche drivers as dangerous, myself excluded of course.
Just a thought.......
What about longevity and robustness of the cars? In the past Porsche made cars that would easily sail past 200K miles on the original bottom end, and prices for parts such as brake disks and pads are no more expensive then any euro-dross-box. This is why so many 944/968/964/SC/3.2 928 even are in the hands of enthusiasts and still going strong. I have a 968 on 153K miles and a 944 S2 on 172K miles both brilliant cars. This has to be a factor in explaining why so many are still on the road because in many cases if you are handy with the spanners a Porsche from that era makes more sense then wasting money a new dross-box.
I do worry though about the recent models. The other thread on here about 996 engine longevity doesn't bode well I am afraid for guys like me that will keep these cars alive after all you rich boys have moved on to something else.
I do worry though about the recent models. The other thread on here about 996 engine longevity doesn't bode well I am afraid for guys like me that will keep these cars alive after all you rich boys have moved on to something else.
It would be nice to say that galvanised bodies and superior build etc has led to such a high Porsche survival rate. No doubt they have contributed, as has desirability. However, as has been clearly stated before its a simple maths job - Porsche production has been much higher recently and therefore, regardless of the longevity of the products, there are bound to be lots still on the road.
Land Rover make a similar claim. It sounds impressive when you think that they have been making cars for 50 plus years. Less so when you consider the volumes made recently ie since the Disco and Freelander were introduced and people outside of UK started buying Rangies. At some point most of these Discos and Freelanders will get old and be thrown away. At that point the percentage of survivors will go down.
Land Rover make a similar claim. It sounds impressive when you think that they have been making cars for 50 plus years. Less so when you consider the volumes made recently ie since the Disco and Freelander were introduced and people outside of UK started buying Rangies. At some point most of these Discos and Freelanders will get old and be thrown away. At that point the percentage of survivors will go down.
BMWChris said:
It would be nice to say that galvanised bodies and superior build etc has led to such a high Porsche survival rate. No doubt they have contributed, as has desirability. However, as has been clearly stated before its a simple maths job - Porsche production has been much higher recently and therefore, regardless of the longevity of the products, there are bound to be lots still on the road.
Land Rover make a similar claim. It sounds impressive when you think that they have been making cars for 50 plus years. Less so when you consider the volumes made recently ie since the Disco and Freelander were introduced and people outside of UK started buying Rangies. At some point most of these Discos and Freelanders will get old and be thrown away. At that point the percentage of survivors will go down.
on a similar note, 80% of humans ever to have walked the earth are still alive.Land Rover make a similar claim. It sounds impressive when you think that they have been making cars for 50 plus years. Less so when you consider the volumes made recently ie since the Disco and Freelander were introduced and people outside of UK started buying Rangies. At some point most of these Discos and Freelanders will get old and be thrown away. At that point the percentage of survivors will go down.
If only we'd distributed the pill as much as penicillin.
Edited by spikeyhead on Tuesday 23 December 00:04
[quote=spikeyhead]
on a similar note, 80% of humans ever to have walked the earth are still alive.
I am afraid that's rubbish - one of those "facts" that keeps getting repeated. Google urban myths and it normally features in the top 10 - along with the fact that poinsettias are poisonous and drinking alcohol through a straw gets you pissed more quickly.
Now if we were all galvanised and made in Germany you might have been closer...
on a similar note, 80% of humans ever to have walked the earth are still alive.
I am afraid that's rubbish - one of those "facts" that keeps getting repeated. Google urban myths and it normally features in the top 10 - along with the fact that poinsettias are poisonous and drinking alcohol through a straw gets you pissed more quickly.
Now if we were all galvanised and made in Germany you might have been closer...
Although I don't think I was describing a "price crash" in any case only time will tell Peter (web) who is right or wrong (and it doesn't bother me either way) but there is absolutely no argument whatsoever that with Boxsters that have been manufactured in the last 11 years now being advertised around £8K and 996's from say £15K - that huge increase in production numbers now does find itself on the market at similar prices together with the more tradditional Porsche models you rightly mention that were sold in low enough numbers to preserve rareity and increase desireability in the past. I can also understand this idea being unpopular with anyone presently owning an older example or working with them in some way and I have no problem with anyone - like you - thinking I am wrong!
Furthermore those people (like me) around retirement age who lust after the sports car they wanted as young men (and can finally afford one)- will in future years be people for whom the lust may be more associated with a Boxster or 996 and not such an old 911/924/944 that was before their time.
In most markets anything that increases numbers and choice reduces prices and as sellers in the market - we now find more customers that we would have expected to be interested in older examples - to come in looking for a Boxster or 996 as their "retirement toy" aware that the older cars may cost a lot to maintain and be less comfortable and more prone to corrosion and higher maintenance costs etc. Similarly, customers who already own a 968, 944, 3.2 carerra etc (and have done for several years) - we find starting to look at much more modern Porsche's to move up to but are only held back by the low value of their present Porsche.
But when we use this kind of feedback from our customers to add to the logic of those extra numbers that will hit the market and add it to our expectations of normal market forces - to come up with our conclusion - we could still be wrong as this sort of speculation doesn't always get things right and the public are not always predictable.
As I said at the beginning only time will tell.
Baz
Furthermore those people (like me) around retirement age who lust after the sports car they wanted as young men (and can finally afford one)- will in future years be people for whom the lust may be more associated with a Boxster or 996 and not such an old 911/924/944 that was before their time.
In most markets anything that increases numbers and choice reduces prices and as sellers in the market - we now find more customers that we would have expected to be interested in older examples - to come in looking for a Boxster or 996 as their "retirement toy" aware that the older cars may cost a lot to maintain and be less comfortable and more prone to corrosion and higher maintenance costs etc. Similarly, customers who already own a 968, 944, 3.2 carerra etc (and have done for several years) - we find starting to look at much more modern Porsche's to move up to but are only held back by the low value of their present Porsche.
But when we use this kind of feedback from our customers to add to the logic of those extra numbers that will hit the market and add it to our expectations of normal market forces - to come up with our conclusion - we could still be wrong as this sort of speculation doesn't always get things right and the public are not always predictable.
As I said at the beginning only time will tell.
Baz
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