Grassing up a Covid **** taker.

[Phil.]

Killboy said:

Yikes.

Source of data?

Why are deaths remaining so low despite the increase in the government’s hype and scare testing programme? And this is despite the death count being skewed upwards by the die with/from/anything within 28 days of a PCR test, set of rules?

[Phil.]

Evanivitch said:

What period would you use to categorise a Covid Death?

What would you use and why?

[Jasandjules]

Evanivitch said:

What period would you use to categorise a Covid Death?

You do not need a period of time, but causation. Do you think if you were diagnosed with cancer last month but hit and killed by a car your cause of death was cancer?

[Phil.]

Jasandjules said:

Evanivitch said:

What period would you use to categorise a Covid Death?

You do not need a period of time, but causation. Do you think if you were diagnosed with cancer last month but hit and killed by a car your cause of death was cancer?

Exactly, thank you. But don’t expect Evan to accept a rationale argument.

[Evanivitch]

Phil. said:

Jasandjules said:

Evanivitch said:

What period would you use to categorise a Covid Death?

You do not need a period of time, but causation. Do you think if you were diagnosed with cancer last month but hit and killed by a car your cause of death was cancer?

Exactly, thank you. But don’t expect Evan to accept a rationale argument.

If only all life and death was so simple. I'll leave you children carry on with your works of fiction.

[Phil.]

Evanivitch said:

If only all life and death was so simple. I'll leave you children carry on with your works of fiction.

Night, night. Don’t for get the bucket of sand for your head before bed

Edited to say, I expect you’ll be in 100% lockdown soon. Enjoy

[Evanivitch]

Phil. said:

Night, night. Don’t for get the bucket of sand for your head before bed

Edited to say, I expect you’ll be in 100% lockdown soon. Enjoy

£10 Boris follows suit and announces 2 weeks after, your choice of charity, man of my word?

[Jasandjules]

Evanivitch said:

If only all life and death was so simple. I'll leave you children carry on with your works of fiction.

What do you think is meant by "cause of death"..... If it does not mean the thing that caused the death?

It is used quite a lot, for example: https://www.gov.uk/after-a-death/when-a-death-is-r...

Do explain why you think Covid is different and every death is now a question of having a condition within a month of actual time of death?

[Killboy]

Phil. said:

Source of data?

It’s not a random Twitter user

[Evanivitch]

Jasandjules said:

What do you think is meant by "cause of death"..... If it does not mean the thing that caused the death?

For the same reason that your cause of death for your cancer patient wasn't "car".

Did they die from blunt force trauma to the head? Did they die from massive haemorrhaging? Maybe decapitation?

Did an obese, elderly man die from Covid or a heart attack?

[Killboy]

Phil. said:

It doesn’t differ from my understanding of what is happening in Sweden i.e.

No masks
No business, restaurant or school closures
Sensible advice about how to protect themselves and each other
No new draconian laws implemented inconsistently
No lockdowns

Have I missed something in the link that suggests any of the above are incorrect?

I’m remain confused as the point you are trying to make with this link. Feel free to expand on your argument.

Their stats are st. I read China’s economy has already recovered. How is Sweden doing?

[Chromegrill]

I can't understand why everyone seems to want to be like Sweden when their cumulative mortality rates per capita are the fifth highest in Europe. It's embarrassing when you think of the amount of free space compared to many countries and the natural distancing possible in Swedish culture which simply does not translate into anything possible in the UK. I'm more interested in understanding why low and middle income countries like mongolia, Ghana, Taiwan or Vietnam have managed to contain the virus from the outset and have suffered little economic hardship in comparison to us. In short, countries with a vigorous response from the beginning and rigorous lockdown as soon as it was needed have done much better economically on the whole than those like the UK that have attempted to ride it out, then slammed the brakes on when it was too late. No-one wants another lockdown, and those making the decision are acutely aware of the harms to jobs, mental wellbeing, education and the economy. So why would they even consider it again?

There has been some chatter on this thread about intensive care beds. I'd just like to point out that France, which is about a month ahead of us in terms of COVID-19 rates, currently has 2000 ICU beds occupied by patients with COVID-19. The UK has around 4000 ICU beds in total, most of which are currently filled with patients who have conditions other than COVID-19 so there are very few "spare" ICU beds available. Just because they aren't half full yet with patients with COVID-19 doesn't mean we can afford to be complacent, and I have to point out that the numbers of patients in our ICU beds is growing exponentially. That doesn't just mean that the number every day is bigger than the number the previous day. It means in layman's terms, that the difference between yesterday's count and today's is bigger than the day before yesterday's and today's counts. That is incredibly worrying for those of us working in the field, given that the only intervention proven to curb numbers is the full lockdown we had in March. The "R" number fell overnight when it was introduced and the mortality began falling a fortnight later, exactly as expected from what we know of this infection.

You may ask why people don't seem to be dying from COVID in large numbers at present in the UK. Well the number of patients who die from COVID is proportional to the number of patients admitted with COVID, which is proportional to the number of people infected across the community. And the number of deaths is growing exponentially, a few weeks behind the same rate of growth in cases and starting from very low numbers so it will take a while to see the changes. But we can't undo the infections that have already occurred, and we know that a (thankfully fairly small) proportion of them will go on to become very sick, and some of them will die from this. When you have unrestricted spread of infectious, as we have seen in recent weeks, a proportion of them will be admitted to hospital in due course. And some of those who are critically sick may be in hospital a few weeks before they die. We know this because it's what happened in March and it's the same virus. It hasn't mutated and we aren't massively better at treating it now than we were before. True we have learnt a lot over the past few months and around a quarter of the patients who previously died in intensive care might now survive with improvements to the way we use steroids and breathing support but none of the widely-touted drugs like hydroxychloroquine or remdesivir have proven, after clinical rigorous trials, to have any impact whatsoever on mortality. Put bluntly, they don't work on the COVID-19 coronavirus.

Oh and don't think that just because winter is always a busy time that the doctors and nurses in ICU are bleating about something that's no different than usual. Fewer staff are available than usual this year (because at any point we have colleagues who are isolating at home with COVID, isolating at home because a family member or other close contact of them has COVID or they are staying at home because their children have been sent home from school because a classmate caught it). So for starters there is the same amount of work to do as usual but fewer staff to do it. And it's psychologically hard when you recognise some of the patients in intensive care as being your own colleagues. Yep, happened in March, don't want to repeat it again.

Then we have all the additional precautions necessary to avoid the healthcare workforce becoming infected, or infecting our patients. Like physical spacing so there isn't as much room for as many beds as usual. Like everything taking so much longer when you have patients in ICU with COVID because of all the additional PPE you have to change in and out of. Like knowing that because surgeons are still trying to play catch up with surgery that had to be delayed from earlier in the year we are juggling patients who need critical care beds after surgery with the possibility those beds may not be available for very much longer if they end up being taken up with patients who require ventilation due to COVID. And if things get really bad and we have to take over the operating theatres again in some hospitals, as we did back in March, in order to make use of their ventilators, then obviously some people who need surgery will have further delays. Don't underestimate how complicated and exhausting it is this year compared to the annual winter bugs festival that comes along every year in the autumn.

I hope it doesn't get to that point, and we still have time to prevent it doing so but infection rates are getting worryingly high. Belgium has just admitted they are unable to cope any longer and we have a small window of opportunity to seize back control and avoid going down the same route. COVID-19 is not flu - it's something like ten times more deadly than flu, and a lot of people can all fall very sick at the same time if it's allowed to get out of hand. As a society we can choose which way we want to go with this, but we need to accept that it won't be brought under control if if half the population want tighter restrictions and the other half still think it's just a hoax. Which half are you in?

[Phil.]

Killboy said:

Phil. said:

Source of data?

It’s not a random Twitter user

Too embarrassed to quote the source then. Meaningless data?

[Phil.]

‘’One hundred extra deaths at home a day are occurring from non-Covid illnesses.’’

ONS figures show a massive increase in home deaths since March and now the extra daily deaths are higher than COVID deaths!

Why are they doing this?

https://twitter.com/telegraph/status/1318248460831...

[Evanivitch]

Phil. said:

‘’One hundred extra deaths at home a day are occurring from non-Covid illnesses.’’

ONS figures show a massive increase in home deaths since March and now the extra daily deaths are higher than COVID deaths!

Why are they doing this?

https://twitter.com/telegraph/status/1318248460831...

So weird that rather than link to the data, you link to a Twitter link of a paywall article. How odd.

[Phil.]

Chromegrill said:

I can't understand why everyone seems to want to be like Sweden when their cumulative mortality rates per capita are the fifth highest in Europe. It's embarrassing when you think of the amount of free space compared to many countries and the natural distancing possible in Swedish culture which simply does not translate into anything possible in the UK. I'm more interested in understanding why low and middle income countries like mongolia, Ghana, Taiwan or Vietnam have managed to contain the virus from the outset and have suffered little economic hardship in comparison to us. In short, countries with a vigorous response from the beginning and rigorous lockdown as soon as it was needed have done much better economically on the whole than those like the UK that have attempted to ride it out, then slammed the brakes on when it was too late. No-one wants another lockdown, and those making the decision are acutely aware of the harms to jobs, mental wellbeing, education and the economy. So why would they even consider it again?

There has been some chatter on this thread about intensive care beds. I'd just like to point out that France, which is about a month ahead of us in terms of COVID-19 rates, currently has 2000 ICU beds occupied by patients with COVID-19. The UK has around 4000 ICU beds in total, most of which are currently filled with patients who have conditions other than COVID-19 so there are very few "spare" ICU beds available. Just because they aren't half full yet with patients with COVID-19 doesn't mean we can afford to be complacent, and I have to point out that the numbers of patients in our ICU beds is growing exponentially. That doesn't just mean that the number every day is bigger than the number the previous day. It means in layman's terms, that the difference between yesterday's count and today's is bigger than the day before yesterday's and today's counts. That is incredibly worrying for those of us working in the field, given that the only intervention proven to curb numbers is the full lockdown we had in March. The "R" number fell overnight when it was introduced and the mortality began falling a fortnight later, exactly as expected from what we know of this infection.

You may ask why people don't seem to be dying from COVID in large numbers at present in the UK. Well the number of patients who die from COVID is proportional to the number of patients admitted with COVID, which is proportional to the number of people infected across the community. And the number of deaths is growing exponentially, a few weeks behind the same rate of growth in cases and starting from very low numbers so it will take a while to see the changes. But we can't undo the infections that have already occurred, and we know that a (thankfully fairly small) proportion of them will go on to become very sick, and some of them will die from this. When you have unrestricted spread of infectious, as we have seen in recent weeks, a proportion of them will be admitted to hospital in due course. And some of those who are critically sick may be in hospital a few weeks before they die. We know this because it's what happened in March and it's the same virus. It hasn't mutated and we aren't massively better at treating it now than we were before. True we have learnt a lot over the past few months and around a quarter of the patients who previously died in intensive care might now survive with improvements to the way we use steroids and breathing support but none of the widely-touted drugs like hydroxychloroquine or remdesivir have proven, after clinical rigorous trials, to have any impact whatsoever on mortality. Put bluntly, they don't work on the COVID-19 coronavirus.

Oh and don't think that just because winter is always a busy time that the doctors and nurses in ICU are bleating about something that's no different than usual. Fewer staff are available than usual this year (because at any point we have colleagues who are isolating at home with COVID, isolating at home because a family member or other close contact of them has COVID or they are staying at home because their children have been sent home from school because a classmate caught it). So for starters there is the same amount of work to do as usual but fewer staff to do it. And it's psychologically hard when you recognise some of the patients in intensive care as being your own colleagues. Yep, happened in March, don't want to repeat it again.

Then we have all the additional precautions necessary to avoid the healthcare workforce becoming infected, or infecting our patients. Like physical spacing so there isn't as much room for as many beds as usual. Like everything taking so much longer when you have patients in ICU with COVID because of all the additional PPE you have to change in and out of. Like knowing that because surgeons are still trying to play catch up with surgery that had to be delayed from earlier in the year we are juggling patients who need critical care beds after surgery with the possibility those beds may not be available for very much longer if they end up being taken up with patients who require ventilation due to COVID. And if things get really bad and we have to take over the operating theatres again in some hospitals, as we did back in March, in order to make use of their ventilators, then obviously some people who need surgery will have further delays. Don't underestimate how complicated and exhausting it is this year compared to the annual winter bugs festival that comes along every year in the autumn.

I hope it doesn't get to that point, and we still have time to prevent it doing so but infection rates are getting worryingly high. Belgium has just admitted they are unable to cope any longer and we have a small window of opportunity to seize back control and avoid going down the same route. COVID-19 is not flu - it's something like ten times more deadly than flu, and a lot of people can all fall very sick at the same time if it's allowed to get out of hand. As a society we can choose which way we want to go with this, but we need to accept that it won't be brought under control if if half the population want tighter restrictions and the other half still think it's just a hoax. Which half are you in?

There is so much opinion here which disagrees with the evidence that I can’t be arsed to pick it out. Try posting the same message here and I’m sure you’ll get lots of responses:

https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...

[Phil.]

Evanivitch said:

So weird that rather than link to the data, you link to a Twitter link of a paywall article. How odd.

Not as odd as your replies

Give it a couple of days and the article will be available for viewing by everyone and/or other press will publish similar articles. Or take the effort to research the increasing number of home deaths during COVID interventions this year because they is a lot of information about. Or continue making dumb responses to my posts just cos’ you really dislike me on PH

[R Mutt]

Chromegrill said:

I can't understand why everyone seems to want to be like Sweden when their cumulative mortality rates per capita are the fifth highest in Europe. It's embarrassing when you think of the amount of free space compared to many countries and the natural distancing possible in Swedish culture which simply does not translate into anything possible in the UK. I'm more interested in understanding why low and middle income countries like mongolia, Ghana, Taiwan or Vietnam have managed to contain the virus from the outset and have suffered little economic hardship in comparison to us. In short, countries with a vigorous response from the beginning and rigorous lockdown as soon as it was needed have done much better economically on the whole than those like the UK that have attempted to ride it out, then slammed the brakes on when it was too late. No-one wants another lockdown, and those making the decision are acutely aware of the harms to jobs, mental wellbeing, education and the economy. So why would they even consider it again?

There has been some chatter on this thread about intensive care beds. I'd just like to point out that France, which is about a month ahead of us in terms of COVID-19 rates, currently has 2000 ICU beds occupied by patients with COVID-19. The UK has around 4000 ICU beds in total, most of which are currently filled with patients who have conditions other than COVID-19 so there are very few "spare" ICU beds available. Just because they aren't half full yet with patients with COVID-19 doesn't mean we can afford to be complacent, and I have to point out that the numbers of patients in our ICU beds is growing exponentially. That doesn't just mean that the number every day is bigger than the number the previous day. It means in layman's terms, that the difference between yesterday's count and today's is bigger than the day before yesterday's and today's counts. That is incredibly worrying for those of us working in the field, given that the only intervention proven to curb numbers is the full lockdown we had in March. The "R" number fell overnight when it was introduced and the mortality began falling a fortnight later, exactly as expected from what we know of this infection.

You may ask why people don't seem to be dying from COVID in large numbers at present in the UK. Well the number of patients who die from COVID is proportional to the number of patients admitted with COVID, which is proportional to the number of people infected across the community. And the number of deaths is growing exponentially, a few weeks behind the same rate of growth in cases and starting from very low numbers so it will take a while to see the changes. But we can't undo the infections that have already occurred, and we know that a (thankfully fairly small) proportion of them will go on to become very sick, and some of them will die from this. When you have unrestricted spread of infectious, as we have seen in recent weeks, a proportion of them will be admitted to hospital in due course. And some of those who are critically sick may be in hospital a few weeks before they die. We know this because it's what happened in March and it's the same virus. It hasn't mutated and we aren't massively better at treating it now than we were before. True we have learnt a lot over the past few months and around a quarter of the patients who previously died in intensive care might now survive with improvements to the way we use steroids and breathing support but none of the widely-touted drugs like hydroxychloroquine or remdesivir have proven, after clinical rigorous trials, to have any impact whatsoever on mortality. Put bluntly, they don't work on the COVID-19 coronavirus.

Oh and don't think that just because winter is always a busy time that the doctors and nurses in ICU are bleating about something that's no different than usual. Fewer staff are available than usual this year (because at any point we have colleagues who are isolating at home with COVID, isolating at home because a family member or other close contact of them has COVID or they are staying at home because their children have been sent home from school because a classmate caught it). So for starters there is the same amount of work to do as usual but fewer staff to do it. And it's psychologically hard when you recognise some of the patients in intensive care as being your own colleagues. Yep, happened in March, don't want to repeat it again.

Then we have all the additional precautions necessary to avoid the healthcare workforce becoming infected, or infecting our patients. Like physical spacing so there isn't as much room for as many beds as usual. Like everything taking so much longer when you have patients in ICU with COVID because of all the additional PPE you have to change in and out of. Like knowing that because surgeons are still trying to play catch up with surgery that had to be delayed from earlier in the year we are juggling patients who need critical care beds after surgery with the possibility those beds may not be available for very much longer if they end up being taken up with patients who require ventilation due to COVID. And if things get really bad and we have to take over the operating theatres again in some hospitals, as we did back in March, in order to make use of their ventilators, then obviously some people who need surgery will have further delays. Don't underestimate how complicated and exhausting it is this year compared to the annual winter bugs festival that comes along every year in the autumn.

I hope it doesn't get to that point, and we still have time to prevent it doing so but infection rates are getting worryingly high. Belgium has just admitted they are unable to cope any longer and we have a small window of opportunity to seize back control and avoid going down the same route. COVID-19 is not flu - it's something like ten times more deadly than flu, and a lot of people can all fall very sick at the same time if it's allowed to get out of hand. As a society we can choose which way we want to go with this, but we need to accept that it won't be brought under control if if half the population want tighter restrictions and the other half still think it's just a hoax. Which half are you in?

People are still ignoring the fact that the Swedish figures aren't great and that Swedes have been following social distancing and other recommendedmeasures. It was the same early on with the praise of S. Korea. Except people liked their figures rather than the actual response which was to track and trace you down to your home and make you quarantine. While people here saying what a mess we've made of it are refusing to write their real name down in a pub.

[Chromegrill]

Phil. said:

There is so much opinion here which disagrees with the evidence that I can’t be arsed to pick it out. Try posting the same message here and I’m sure you’ll get lots of responses:

https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...

Otherwise known as, please don't confuse me with the facts as I've already made up my mind. Did you actually bother to read anything that I posted?

[Killboy]

Phil. said:

Killboy said:

Phil. said:

Source of data?

It’s not a random Twitter user

Too embarrassed to quote the source then. Meaningless data?

If you insist. https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/

Not enough 3d effect on the graph, and comic sans fonts for you?