Emergency legislation - information and commentary
Discussion
NickCQ said:
Breadvan72 said:
Discussion of last summer is relevant only as history. There were no vaccines then.
The issue is that SAGE doesn't believe that, and the government listens (only) to SAGE.They are looking at a model output that does this, assuming restrictions are lifted in line with the current schedule:
(page 9) https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/governmen...
SAGE said:
Under the default assumptions, we expect to observe 84,400 hospital admissions (CI 20,900-
168,000) and 18,600 deaths (CI 4500-36,200) from 12th April 2021 until June 2022
This forecast is from the 29th March so takes into account the current vaccination trajectory. I would be interested to see whether the Great Barrington group or others have done their own modelling (I haven't checked) and whether there is scientific consensus on the 2021 summer peak.168,000) and 18,600 deaths (CI 4500-36,200) from 12th April 2021 until June 2022
Edited by NickCQ on Thursday 8th April 09:45
The average age of death is over 80 from Covid and currently, at least locally where I work, over 80% of this population group have had their second vaccination and can be considered immune, and over 90% of all those over the age of 50 have had their first dose which is considered to prevent hospital admission and death. I'm not sure who they think is going to be dying, other than the tens of thousands denied hospital treatment by Sage over the last year.
Interesting use of the word "assumptions". So no facts then to justify denying us basic human rights?
Perhaps an explanation from Sage as to why my colleagues and I have spent the last 4 months of our spare time vaccinating all these people if it doesn't work. Perhaps when they crawl out of their central London basements in a year or two to survey the wreckage of the UK and it's economy we might get an answer.
Breadvan72 said:
SAGE seems to have been captured by worst cases viewpoints, and seems also obsessed by prediction rather than by observation of what actually happens. So UCL and others who suggest what might be more real world views are whistling in the wind.
NickCQ said:
Elysium said:
The ONS are using the 2015-2019 average to compare both 2020 and 2021 deaths.
So the 'average' in each case is pre-COVID.
Gotcha. I don't think that's a hugely helpful baseline against which to evaluate policy choices given the "harvesting" of 2020 but I understand why they do it.So the 'average' in each case is pre-COVID.
RSTurboPaul said:
As Covid is now endemic and one more thing on the list of things that might kill us each year, and hashtagZeroCovid is an unachievable fantasy, one would hope that the baseline would be, er, re-baselined in due course to take account of that fact and not forevermore imply that Covid deaths are 'excess deaths'.
I think you are missing the point. If you take 2015-19 as the baseline, you would expect to see negative excess deaths in 2021-22 almost whatever you do because a load of old people that would have died in 2021-22 already died in 2020. That's what "harvesting" is. It doesn't mean that your policy was a success per se.NickCQ said:
RSTurboPaul said:
As Covid is now endemic and one more thing on the list of things that might kill us each year, and hashtagZeroCovid is an unachievable fantasy, one would hope that the baseline would be, er, re-baselined in due course to take account of that fact and not forevermore imply that Covid deaths are 'excess deaths'.
I think you are missing the point. If you take 2015-19 as the baseline, you would expect to see negative excess deaths in 2021-22 almost whatever you do because a load of old people that would have died in 2021-22 already died in 2020. That's what "harvesting" is. It doesn't mean that your policy was a success per se.In some ways, that would be a relatively positive outcome, because it would confirm that a substantial number of COVID-19 fatalities were of people who were already quite near the end of their lives.
The impact of the pandemic might ultimately have been to accelerate their normal deaths by a year or so, which is still terribly sad for those involved, but obviously less damaging to society than a disease that killed indiscriminately regardless of age and infirmity,
Elysium said:
If we continue to see very low levels of all cause mortality for the rest of 2021, then the most likely reason would be that many people who died in the pandemic are no longer around to die of something else.
In some ways, that would be a relatively positive outcome, because it would confirm that a substantial number of COVID-19 fatalities were of people who were already quite near the end of their lives.
Agreed. There was a study done in Scotland early on last year which suggested that the average "years of life lost" from a COVID death was something like 10+, which was surprisingly high, so it will be interesting to see how this can be refined on 2021/22 data.In some ways, that would be a relatively positive outcome, because it would confirm that a substantial number of COVID-19 fatalities were of people who were already quite near the end of their lives.
https://www.gla.ac.uk/news/archiveofnews/2020/apri...
You might find this interesting. The blue bars are weekly ONS deaths ‘due to COVID’ and the orange line is excess deaths compared to the 2015-2019 average. You can see that the numbers of reported COVID deaths in each are similar, but the number of extra people dying peaks much lower in the second wave.
Some of this is down to timing. The second wave coincides with the normal winter virus season, whereas the first wave came at an unusual time when deaths tend to be lower. It could also be due to our open methodology which, if there is doubt, tends to favour COVID as a cause of death alongside other conditions.
However. It could also be a sign that there are already less vulnerable people. Excess death inevitably corrects itself at some point.
Some of this is down to timing. The second wave coincides with the normal winter virus season, whereas the first wave came at an unusual time when deaths tend to be lower. It could also be due to our open methodology which, if there is doubt, tends to favour COVID as a cause of death alongside other conditions.
However. It could also be a sign that there are already less vulnerable people. Excess death inevitably corrects itself at some point.
Elysium said:
That is interesting, thanks. Is there an explanation for why first wave excess deaths were greater than the number of COVID deaths? That would seem to contradict the idea that COVID is overly favoured as a cause of death, unless what we are seeing is the impact of restricting other healthcare services in the first lockdown.NickCQ said:
Elysium said:
That is interesting, thanks. Is there an explanation for why first wave excess deaths were greater than the number of COVID deaths? That would seem to contradict the idea that COVID is overly favoured as a cause of death, unless what we are seeing is the impact of restricting other healthcare services in the first lockdown.
lolI *think* it's saying that in the first wave, some excess deaths were not attributed to Covid (which is remarkable, given how it was/is the 'get out of jail free' card if a Dr wanted to avoid an autopsy or any further investigations, which seemingly lots wanted to do), whereas in the second wave, Covid is being used for eeeeeverything and more, replacing other illnesses as the/a cause of death on Death Certificates.
That the second wave has numbers of Covid deaths in excess of the Excess Deaths line could be seen as 'Covid is causing all excess deaths', but the fact the Covid deaths are higher than the Excess deaths shows that Covid is mopping up other causes of death. We should therefore see reductions in deaths from other illnesses in the figures.
I *think*...
RSTurboPaul said:
That the second wave has numbers of Covid deaths in excess of the Excess Deaths line could be seen as 'Covid is causing all excess deaths', but the fact the Covid deaths are higher than the Excess deaths shows that Covid is mopping up other causes of death.
Per the earlier discussion, underlying / non-COVID mortality in Q4 last year was probably below the 5 year average because of deaths of old / vulnerable during the first wave of COVID. It doesn't mean that "COVID is mopping up other causes of death", it just means that absent COVID in those weeks, excess deaths would have been negative.RSTurboPaul said:
NickCQ said:
Elysium said:
That is interesting, thanks. Is there an explanation for why first wave excess deaths were greater than the number of COVID deaths? That would seem to contradict the idea that COVID is overly favoured as a cause of death, unless what we are seeing is the impact of restricting other healthcare services in the first lockdown. lolI *think* it's saying that in the first wave, some excess deaths were not attributed to Covid (which is remarkable, given how it was/is the 'get out of jail free' card if a Dr wanted to avoid an autopsy or any further investigations, which seemingly lots wanted to do), whereas in the second wave, Covid is being used for eeeeeverything and more, replacing other illnesses as the/a cause of death on Death Certificates.
That the second wave has numbers of Covid deaths in excess of the Excess Deaths line could be seen as 'Covid is causing all excess deaths', but the fact the Covid deaths are higher than the Excess deaths shows that Covid is mopping up other causes of death. We should therefore see reductions in deaths from other illnesses in the figures.
I *think*...
Oh look - Government are issuing edicts again based on guidance, and attempting to pretend they are law 
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/04/08/ex...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/04/08/ex...
Telegraph said:
Drinkers must hand their phones to pub staff to prove they have registered on the NHS Test and Trace app when beer gardens open on Monday under a tightening of rules to track Covid in hospitality venues.
The latest guidance says pub staff must look at customers' mobile phone screens to make sure that they have registered with Test and Trace before they can be served.
Drinkers will still have the option of registering manually by filling out a form with their name and telephone number.
The guidance, issued ahead of the outdoor reopening, says that "should someone choose to check in with the official NHS QR code poster, a venue should check their phone screen to ensure they have successfully checked in".
Under the rules from Monday, all customers will have to register with Test and Trace rather than just one person per group.
The latest guidance says pub staff must look at customers' mobile phone screens to make sure that they have registered with Test and Trace before they can be served.
Drinkers will still have the option of registering manually by filling out a form with their name and telephone number.
The guidance, issued ahead of the outdoor reopening, says that "should someone choose to check in with the official NHS QR code poster, a venue should check their phone screen to ensure they have successfully checked in".
Under the rules from Monday, all customers will have to register with Test and Trace rather than just one person per group.
Edited by RSTurboPaul on Friday 9th April 16:15
NickCQ said:
That is interesting, thanks. Is there an explanation for why first wave excess deaths were greater than the number of COVID deaths? That would seem to contradict the idea that COVID is overly favoured as a cause of death, unless what we are seeing is the impact of restricting other healthcare services in the first lockdown.
PHE deaths within 28 days are influenced by the extent of testing, which was quite restricted in the first wave. I think this will have affected decisions about what to include on death certificates.
Elysium said:
I am not convinced anyone is going to 'investigate' the Declaration to Travel forms.
I would describe this as leaving the UK to work abroad. Get on the flight and never look back.
Closing off my experience of foreign travel that I mentioned on 22nd March and quoting this as it was very accurate. I flew out of Gatwick and was asked a couple of questions at bag drop off. Everyone was asked, but the questions amounted to “Have you got anDeclaration to Travel? Can I see it please?” and that was it. It wasn’t really looked at and there were no questions about the purpose of my travel. This was done by someone wearing a DHL logo on their jacket and there wasn’t even a hint of a police presence anywhere in the airport. I would describe this as leaving the UK to work abroad. Get on the flight and never look back.
The flight was about 80-90% full but most onboard were immediately jumping onto another connecting flight rather than staying in the country I’ve headed to.
carinaman said:
"It all reminds me forcibly of conditions under communism in Eastern Europe before 1989. It is hard not to conclude either that the vaccine is ineffective and the continuation of restrictions is to disguise this, along with the enormous sums of money being made from it; or that regardless of its effectiveness, the vaccine is simply another control measure designed to instil fear and compliance."what utter tripe!
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