Coronavirus - the killer flu that will wipe us out? (Vol. 7)
Discussion
isaldiri said:
Munter said:
Umm. Think you missed a point there.
Sometime around now is the right time to re-implement quarantine. Our transmission rate is now under control (e.g. less than 1), so it makes sense to restrict other cases coming in, as over time those will become the biggest source of infection, rather than our own population.
Our transmission rate might be under 1 but it's still broadly at a relatively high base level of cases which is still circulating around, certainly compared to most of our EU neighbours.. it's not as if we have daily cases in the tens when there might be a reasonable argument for quarantine. And specifically exempting people from france just makes a mockery of the whole thing anyway.Sometime around now is the right time to re-implement quarantine. Our transmission rate is now under control (e.g. less than 1), so it makes sense to restrict other cases coming in, as over time those will become the biggest source of infection, rather than our own population.
At some point. As our numbers reduce. The numbers coming in via the border could be a significant proportion of the number of infected. Given the lag between testing and the stats, and the lag between the stats and getting a system up and running effectively. Around about now seems like a good time to start creating the system, so that the numbers coming in are reduced (and tracked), and do not become significant in the number of infections (remember, our number is reducing...it's key to the reasons that point). Add in the press will kick off if something is done "too late", better off doing it earlier.
France is annoying, but, starve the nation, or accept a few cases coming in that way. I'd pick accept the cases.
Munter said:
Umm. Think you missed a point there.
Sometime around now is the right time to re-implement quarantine. Our transmission rate is now under control (e.g. less than 1), so it makes sense to restrict other cases coming in, as over time those will become the biggest source of infection, rather than our own population.
Nope. The government estimate there are 18,000 infections currently happening per day. The government have told all people who are in businesses not closed (hospitality/retail) to go back to work (unless they can work from home). Primary schools will start reopening at the start of June. Pubs potenially by July.Sometime around now is the right time to re-implement quarantine. Our transmission rate is now under control (e.g. less than 1), so it makes sense to restrict other cases coming in, as over time those will become the biggest source of infection, rather than our own population.
So with all of that happening, do you think the rate of infections is going to drop far below 18,000 per day?
The idea that border quarantine needs to be applied, bearing in mind it won't apply to truck drivers, nor it seems people coming from France, isn't a science based decision. And for reasons I posted on the other thread, I don't think it will end up being implemented anyway.
The real point is that the number of infections don't matter (within certain bounds) - what happens is *who* is being infected. The government are hopefully getting their act together protecting care homes at last, which will see the numbers of deaths continue to reduce, even though the number of infections occurring can continue to proceed gradually.
Munter said:
Yes. But our cases circulating around are on the decline. The direction of travel is down. The numbers, are getting smaller. There are less of them every day.
At some point. As our numbers reduce. The numbers coming in via the border could be a significant proportion of the number of infected. Given the lag between testing and the stats, and the lag between the stats and getting a system up and running effectively. Around about now seems like a good time to start creating the system, so that the numbers coming in are reduced (and tracked), and do not become significant in the number of infections (remember, our number is reducing...it's key to the reasons that point). Add in the press will kick off if something is done "too late", better off doing it earlier.
France is annoying, but, starve the nation, or accept a few cases coming in that way. I'd pick accept the cases.
As Eddiesteadygo says, we likely currently have thousands of infections circulating around a day. Direction of travel is only going to go up with people being asked to go back to work and such. Even more so when retail (finally) is allowed to reopen. It's got nothing to do with actually restricting new cases but more just the government being seen to be doing something visible. No one was bothered about trying to keep cases down in February by quarantine when it would have had the most impact. to do so now is just crazy. At some point. As our numbers reduce. The numbers coming in via the border could be a significant proportion of the number of infected. Given the lag between testing and the stats, and the lag between the stats and getting a system up and running effectively. Around about now seems like a good time to start creating the system, so that the numbers coming in are reduced (and tracked), and do not become significant in the number of infections (remember, our number is reducing...it's key to the reasons that point). Add in the press will kick off if something is done "too late", better off doing it earlier.
France is annoying, but, starve the nation, or accept a few cases coming in that way. I'd pick accept the cases.
Boris, then, reading between the lines;
"Look, the finance model told us we could pay you lot for a couple of months.
Yes, it will be painful for government to do this (and I didn't want to do it in the first place) but any more than that and we really are stuffed.
Those of you who were awake in March will realise that we told you this back then.
It's the 1 of June peasants and serfs. Deal with it.
We haven't got a clue about the R number but take your bike. Just in case.
Good luck England. See you on the other side."
"Look, the finance model told us we could pay you lot for a couple of months.
Yes, it will be painful for government to do this (and I didn't want to do it in the first place) but any more than that and we really are stuffed.
Those of you who were awake in March will realise that we told you this back then.
It's the 1 of June peasants and serfs. Deal with it.
We haven't got a clue about the R number but take your bike. Just in case.
Good luck England. See you on the other side."
EddieSteadyGo said:
The real point is that the number of infections don't matter (within certain bounds) - what happens is *who* is being infected. The government are hopefully getting their act together protecting care homes at last, which will see the numbers of deaths continue to reduce, even though the number of infections occurring can continue to proceed gradually.
I agree Eddie; let the young and healthy get it and build herd immunity, whilst protecting the vulnerable the best we can.Trouble is, wise owls such as you are in a minority. All I hear on phone in shows, or see on Twitterbook, is "we must guarantee everyone's safety" and "we should keep lockdown until a vaccine arrives".
I think the majority of the UK population has no concept of the purpose of the lockdown, nor do they have any clue about the crippling cost of funding the lockdown. I also think they have an irrational view of the risk posed by the virus, compared to, you know, normal life.
EddieSteadyGo said:
So with all of that happening, do you think the rate of infections is going to drop far below 18,000 per day?
Yes. Definitely within 5 years. I'd expect within a year. Probably even 6 months. You don't just snap your fingers and this stuff works. It'd take time to implement and get running properly, and if you start that too late, then it's...too late. If you do it too early...it's not an issue.Given we're looking at an app to do the trace part of test and trace. How are you going to get say a 14 day history of people coming into the UK before they are allowed out into the general population?
Yes France is an issue. But there are always issues to cope with. Starve/allow goods in. It's a reasonable decision to keep that boarder open, if not a perfect solution.
Is there a point doing quarantine as our infection rate is over 1? No it'd be pointless.
But it's not. It's less than 1. And we'll probably keep it that way. So our numbers are decreasing and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future, because that's the plan now. Keep R below 1, while opening up slowly. At which point it makes sense to implement quarantine, to both stop that being the main source of infections at some point int he future, and quantify numbers that would otherwise be coming in.
Munter said:
Yes. Definitely within 5 years. I'd expect within a year. Probably even 6 months. You don't just snap your fingers and this stuff works. It'd take time to implement and get running properly, and if you start that too late, then it's...too late. If you do it too early...it's not an issue.
Given we're looking at an app to do the trace part of test and trace. How are you going to get say a 14 day history of people coming into the UK before they are allowed out into the general population?
Yes France is an issue. But there are always issues to cope with. Starve/allow goods in. It's a reasonable decision to keep that boarder open, if not a perfect solution.
Is there a point doing quarantine as our infection rate is over 1? No it'd be pointless.
But it's not. It's less than 1. And we'll probably keep it that way. So our numbers are decreasing and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future, because that's the plan now. Keep R below 1, while opening up slowly. At which point it makes sense to implement quarantine, to both stop that being the main source of infections at some point int he future, and quantify numbers that would otherwise be coming in.
You're ignoring the point being made. It's absolute number of new cases that matter not whether R is under or over 1. Reopening shops and whatnot is only going to be increasing R and our number of cases. Until or unless we can get cases down in the hundreds or maybe even tens, quarantine is just going to be a drop in the ocean in preventing new cases compared to existing cases here. Especially when most of our immediate neighbours probably have lower rate of cases than us anyway.......Given we're looking at an app to do the trace part of test and trace. How are you going to get say a 14 day history of people coming into the UK before they are allowed out into the general population?
Yes France is an issue. But there are always issues to cope with. Starve/allow goods in. It's a reasonable decision to keep that boarder open, if not a perfect solution.
Is there a point doing quarantine as our infection rate is over 1? No it'd be pointless.
But it's not. It's less than 1. And we'll probably keep it that way. So our numbers are decreasing and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future, because that's the plan now. Keep R below 1, while opening up slowly. At which point it makes sense to implement quarantine, to both stop that being the main source of infections at some point int he future, and quantify numbers that would otherwise be coming in.
isaldiri said:
Munter said:
Yes. Definitely within 5 years. I'd expect within a year. Probably even 6 months. You don't just snap your fingers and this stuff works. It'd take time to implement and get running properly, and if you start that too late, then it's...too late. If you do it too early...it's not an issue.
Given we're looking at an app to do the trace part of test and trace. How are you going to get say a 14 day history of people coming into the UK before they are allowed out into the general population?
Yes France is an issue. But there are always issues to cope with. Starve/allow goods in. It's a reasonable decision to keep that boarder open, if not a perfect solution.
Is there a point doing quarantine as our infection rate is over 1? No it'd be pointless.
But it's not. It's less than 1. And we'll probably keep it that way. So our numbers are decreasing and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future, because that's the plan now. Keep R below 1, while opening up slowly. At which point it makes sense to implement quarantine, to both stop that being the main source of infections at some point int he future, and quantify numbers that would otherwise be coming in.
You're ignoring the point being made. It's absolute number of new cases that matter not whether R is under or over 1. Reopening shops and whatnot is only going to be increasing R and our number of cases. Until or unless we can get cases down in the hundreds or maybe even tens, quarantine is just going to be a drop in the ocean in preventing new cases compared to existing cases here. Especially when most of our immediate neighbours probably have lower rate of cases than us anyway.......Given we're looking at an app to do the trace part of test and trace. How are you going to get say a 14 day history of people coming into the UK before they are allowed out into the general population?
Yes France is an issue. But there are always issues to cope with. Starve/allow goods in. It's a reasonable decision to keep that boarder open, if not a perfect solution.
Is there a point doing quarantine as our infection rate is over 1? No it'd be pointless.
But it's not. It's less than 1. And we'll probably keep it that way. So our numbers are decreasing and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future, because that's the plan now. Keep R below 1, while opening up slowly. At which point it makes sense to implement quarantine, to both stop that being the main source of infections at some point int he future, and quantify numbers that would otherwise be coming in.
Now. Given the reducing number, (and this is where we agree) at some point people arriving from abroad could become a significant proportion of new cases being generated.
However. Before then (point X say), we need to have a quarantine system up and running. Also we don't know when point X is, because we don't have those numbers, because we don't have a quarantine system up and running.
Given all that.
While numbers are increasing. Feck all point. Anybody suggesting it needs to be assisted to feed themselves through lack of mental capacity one assumes.
While numbers are reducing, that's when it needs to be introduced to both restrict and quantify. You can argue it a few weeks/months either way. But with the numbers coming down, that'd be when you want to start getting it up and running, so it's working at what would have been point X.
thetapeworm said:
How do you feel Raab's announcement that people can "use common sense to see loved ones outdoors" will be handled by the unwashed masses?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52612449
Not sure I follow the logic of meeting only one member at a time. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52612449
If I have something and pass it on to my family member who lives in a different location, they will go home and infect other members.
Furthermore, the guidance states you can meet your mother in the morning and then see your father in the afternoon which doesn't seem any different to seeing them both at the same time.
g4ry13 said:
Not sure I follow the logic of meeting only one member at a time.
If I have something and pass it on to my family member who lives in a different location, they will go home and infect other members.
Furthermore, the guidance states you can meet your mother in the morning and then see your father in the afternoon which doesn't seem any different to seeing them both at the same time.
They might infect other family members, it isn't automatic.If I have something and pass it on to my family member who lives in a different location, they will go home and infect other members.
Furthermore, the guidance states you can meet your mother in the morning and then see your father in the afternoon which doesn't seem any different to seeing them both at the same time.
Munter said:
You're ignoring my point. We will keep R below 1. So numbers will continue to reduce. That's the main point. The current number not so much.
Now. Given the reducing number, (and this is where we agree) at some point people arriving from abroad could become a significant proportion of new cases being generated.
However. Before then (point X say), we need to have a quarantine system up and running. Also we don't know when point X is, because we don't have those numbers, because we don't have a quarantine system up and running.
Given all that.
While numbers are increasing. Feck all point. Anybody suggesting it needs to be assisted to feed themselves through lack of mental capacity one assumes.
While numbers are reducing, that's when it needs to be introduced to both restrict and quantify. You can argue it a few weeks/months either way. But with the numbers coming down, that'd be when you want to start getting it up and running, so it's working at what would have been point X.
You are effectively describing a containment strategy designed to burn the virus out through careful and diligent public health policies. And if not burn it out, at least drive it down to a very low level, after which contact tracing can mop up the rest or keep it under control.Now. Given the reducing number, (and this is where we agree) at some point people arriving from abroad could become a significant proportion of new cases being generated.
However. Before then (point X say), we need to have a quarantine system up and running. Also we don't know when point X is, because we don't have those numbers, because we don't have a quarantine system up and running.
Given all that.
While numbers are increasing. Feck all point. Anybody suggesting it needs to be assisted to feed themselves through lack of mental capacity one assumes.
While numbers are reducing, that's when it needs to be introduced to both restrict and quantify. You can argue it a few weeks/months either way. But with the numbers coming down, that'd be when you want to start getting it up and running, so it's working at what would have been point X.
But you haven't taken account of the fact schools are going to soon start opening, businesses are opening back up. We are at the lowest level of transmission currently, after several weeks of lockdown. It doesn't go down from here - it goes up.
The good news is that it seems like it won't go up for long. Stockholm tested their population at ~10% with antibodies at the end of March. Their R value was around 1. They currently have around 25% with antibodies, but they R is now slowing right down - this is because it looks like they are getting to the 'herd immunity thresshold' which is the point the virus stops being able to find new hosts. This is evident as the number of cases entering hospital in Stockholm is now below those being discharged, despite as we know their schools being open for this period of time, bars open etc.
Common sense etc etc, but the gov do seem to be getting confused with how they are explaining meeting up with family.
By far the most common thing I'm aware of that is actually happening is chatting to parents from their driveway/front garden (i.e. whilst they are at their front door). It seems perfectly safe and sensible (and is often done whilst dropping off shopping etc), more so than meeting one of them in a park for example, yet appears to be something that the gov are specifically advising against/banning.
I guess they are 'banning' it to stop garden parties where everyone is 2m apart as people take a mile if given an inch. My long walking route which I typically do once per week passes my parents house, I've not seen them for 8 weeks but would like to feel safe in being able to chat to them (from 5m+) without getting a neighbour report me.
By far the most common thing I'm aware of that is actually happening is chatting to parents from their driveway/front garden (i.e. whilst they are at their front door). It seems perfectly safe and sensible (and is often done whilst dropping off shopping etc), more so than meeting one of them in a park for example, yet appears to be something that the gov are specifically advising against/banning.
I guess they are 'banning' it to stop garden parties where everyone is 2m apart as people take a mile if given an inch. My long walking route which I typically do once per week passes my parents house, I've not seen them for 8 weeks but would like to feel safe in being able to chat to them (from 5m+) without getting a neighbour report me.
Zoobeef said:
b
hstewie said:
hstewie said: Some new statistics from the Office of National Statistics.
Coronavirus (COVID-19) related deaths by occupation, England and Wales: deaths registered up to and including 20 April 2020
Pretty grim reading
Basically, don't be a male security guard. If you want to reduce the risk to yourself, become a female nurse.Coronavirus (COVID-19) related deaths by occupation, England and Wales: deaths registered up to and including 20 April 2020
Pretty grim reading
EddieSteadyGo said:
But you haven't taken account of the fact schools are going to soon start opening, businesses are opening back up. We are at the lowest level of transmission currently, after several weeks of lockdown. It doesn't go down from here - it goes up.
No it doesn't. Because if it did, we'd lockdown again to make it go down. That is the Gov strategy as described. Keep R below 1 and the numbers constantly reduce. The speed of the reduction will vary based on the measures and could drag out for a long time.Given that strategy. (To consistently keep R below 1). Part of the strategy it'd make sense to have, is a quarantine system up and running before imported cases become significant to the overall numbers. Otherwise it'll be too late and people will b
h about it.John Locke said:
In the interests of fairness, it must be pointed out that congestion and emission charges have been suspended since 23rd March.
https://tfl.gov.uk/campaign/coronavirus-covid-
Sorry didn't know that, I don't really take much notice of that there London.https://tfl.gov.uk/campaign/coronavirus-covid-
It's rather a reverse of what Nick Timothy pointed out "Genuinely stupefied by all these metro liberals who think people in Dudley and Walsall take the tube to work."
Anyway busy out in the open, grabbing some sunshine in the cold intensely rural wind, manufacturing my own vitamin D, while cutting this season's asparagus.
EddieSteadyGo said:
Thought this tweet was a nice riposte to those pretending they don't understand the idea behind "Stay alert".
Found a slightly more wordy version on the Spectator: https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-are-some-p...
And a good read on The Critic also: https://thecritic.co.uk/stay-alert-because-we-fear...
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