Scottish Referendum / Independence - Vol 6
Discussion
Munter said:
They just had a Yes guy on the BBC saying Scotland has suffered under a government they didn't elect.
Suffered because they have a sub base and a single Tory MP apparently.
I've yet to see any evidence of suffering in scotland myself. They ask for things and the rest of the union go's, "Yeah ok here you go". I see plenty of that. I'm not 100% convinced that's suffering.
What they fail to realize is that the rest of the UK is suffering along with them, many areas are going through hard times but are not playing the victim card. Suffered because they have a sub base and a single Tory MP apparently.
I've yet to see any evidence of suffering in scotland myself. They ask for things and the rest of the union go's, "Yeah ok here you go". I see plenty of that. I'm not 100% convinced that's suffering.
Welshbeef said:
Edinburger said:
You do realise that this (and the Standard Life comment) doesn't mean that thousands of jobs will move?
They're international business and will have regulatory and shareholder pressures.
Who is the majority shareholder.. One is paying dole as well as salaries so if its a yes less dole to be paid out and a massive boost to deprived areas. They're international business and will have regulatory and shareholder pressures.
You may be right but if you're livelihood depended on it would you risk it? Maybe however many would not and that many could be enough to win a No vote forever.
Also you do realise if its a no expect 30+ years until next time and by then oil will be pretty much gone so the "bonus" as SNP call it while anyone of any common sense realise its part of the tax revenues needed not a Brucie bonus on top which is what it should be suddenly you realise oh dear game over.
But there is no way those companies will start to move thousands of jobs to N England. Stop sca... oh dear, I alsmost said stop scaremongering!
Edinburger said:
Welshbeef said:
Edinburger said:
You do realise that this (and the Standard Life comment) doesn't mean that thousands of jobs will move?
They're international business and will have regulatory and shareholder pressures.
Who is the majority shareholder.. One is paying dole as well as salaries so if its a yes less dole to be paid out and a massive boost to deprived areas. They're international business and will have regulatory and shareholder pressures.
You may be right but if you're livelihood depended on it would you risk it? Maybe however many would not and that many could be enough to win a No vote forever.
Also you do realise if its a no expect 30+ years until next time and by then oil will be pretty much gone so the "bonus" as SNP call it while anyone of any common sense realise its part of the tax revenues needed not a Brucie bonus on top which is what it should be suddenly you realise oh dear game over.
But there is no way those companies will start to move thousands of jobs to N England. Stop sca... oh dear, I alsmost said stop scaremongering!
p
On the news just now (if Yes):
RBS: "necessary to re-domicile the bank's holding company"
Lloyds Banking Group: "we have contingency plans in place which include the establishment of new legal entities in England. This is a legal procedure and there would be no immediate changes or issues which could affect our business or our customers"
Standard Life: "planning for new regulated companies in England to which we could transfer parts of our business if there was a need to do so"
Aberdeen Asset Management CEO: "an independent Scotland would be a huge success" and "I think an independent Scotland would be a big success, but it is a secret ballot and I will abide by that" followed by "most sensible people now accept that Scotland would be prosperous with either outcome in the current constitutional debate"
Interesting days.
Don't be disillusioned and think that RBS, Lloyds, SL and the others are about to up sticks. That just won't happen. Registering legal entities in England means just that.
RBS: "necessary to re-domicile the bank's holding company"
Lloyds Banking Group: "we have contingency plans in place which include the establishment of new legal entities in England. This is a legal procedure and there would be no immediate changes or issues which could affect our business or our customers"
Standard Life: "planning for new regulated companies in England to which we could transfer parts of our business if there was a need to do so"
Aberdeen Asset Management CEO: "an independent Scotland would be a huge success" and "I think an independent Scotland would be a big success, but it is a secret ballot and I will abide by that" followed by "most sensible people now accept that Scotland would be prosperous with either outcome in the current constitutional debate"
Interesting days.
Don't be disillusioned and think that RBS, Lloyds, SL and the others are about to up sticks. That just won't happen. Registering legal entities in England means just that.
PRTVR said:
Edinburger said:
Welshbeef said:
Edinburger said:
You do realise that this (and the Standard Life comment) doesn't mean that thousands of jobs will move?
They're international business and will have regulatory and shareholder pressures.
Who is the majority shareholder.. One is paying dole as well as salaries so if its a yes less dole to be paid out and a massive boost to deprived areas. They're international business and will have regulatory and shareholder pressures.
You may be right but if you're livelihood depended on it would you risk it? Maybe however many would not and that many could be enough to win a No vote forever.
Also you do realise if its a no expect 30+ years until next time and by then oil will be pretty much gone so the "bonus" as SNP call it while anyone of any common sense realise its part of the tax revenues needed not a Brucie bonus on top which is what it should be suddenly you realise oh dear game over.
But there is no way those companies will start to move thousands of jobs to N England. Stop sca... oh dear, I alsmost said stop scaremongering!
p
At the end of the day, the skills, manpower and intellect doesn't exist in North England to enable those companies to move tens of thousands of banking and financial services jobs there. I'm not trying to be smart or anything, that's just an obvious fact.
Wombat3 said:
It has long been established that the SNP are lying 
s who are making it up as they go along & will say absolutely anything they "deem necessary".
The truthfulness of it is not even remotely a consideration.
The mystery is as to how they have managed to convince so many to swallow the great steaming, festering pile of st they have been serving up!
As demonstrated on BBC Breakfast this morning. An MSP from the SNP directly blaming George Osborne for the uncertainty over the Scottish currency issue by not agreeing to currency union. s who are making it up as they go along & will say absolutely anything they "deem necessary". The truthfulness of it is not even remotely a consideration.
The mystery is as to how they have managed to convince so many to swallow the great steaming, festering pile of s
t they have been serving up!And just in case you weren't sure what a t
t he was - he said it twice.Edinburger said:
Don't be disillusioned and think that RBS, Lloyds, SL and the others are about to up sticks. That just won't happen. Registering legal entities in England means just that.
The problem is that once they start shifting focus after a while they do start to move. First the board and top management move to where the main business/customers is (UK), then they scale down investment in where they used to be etc.RBS & Standard Life are HQ'd in Edinburgh and registered there. Once they start shifting even a bit away from that it is likely that Edinburgh & Scotland will become increasingly less important to them.
They're not going to up sticks on 19/9 I agree but I think you're kidding yourself that it wouldn't have a longer term effect.
I agree with Edinburg up to a point. Changing their legal domicile will not have a big immediate impact on jobs. However, I wouldn't be at all confident that come independence day 18 months down the line, a significant number of jobs will not have relocated. Assuming the Banks statements are anything but very seriously bad news for an iScotland looks like head in the sand thinking to me.
Honestly, financial institutions such as the CLYDEsdale Bank, Royal Bank of SCOTLAND and Standard Life setting up contingency plans to "relocate" to England is a huge warning call.
Firstly there would be significant job losses in Scotland. Scottish Life employs I think 4/5k people in Scotland no?
In an environment of protracted cost savings, increasing regulatory pressures, pressure to maintain capital ratios, banks do not need much incentive to cut jobs.
A relocation would almost certainly be a relocation to London. Banks such as RBS have a huge offices in London which cost huge sums to operate. Hence amalgamating functions at the same location has a cost benefit. Although it may take a little time you can be sure that there would be a migration of jobs and anything left in Scotland would be a satellite presence.
Further...in the uncertainty of a yes vote these banks would want to send a clear message to the markets that they are domiciled and protected within the UK regulatory system and that their exposures to Scotland are minimal.
Finally... I have no doubt that while the banks may be waiting and seeing, and while there may be a strong physical presence in Scotland now... A bank simply could not operate within a jurisdiction that has no currency / lender of last resort etc etc... These institutions will undoubtedly be readying themselves for the need to "press the button" and transfer legal ownership / legal domicile etc of assets and liabilities to England. What physical presence apart from staff, branches, computers does a bank really have in Scotland. What cannot be moved electronically? The impact would take time but jobs would definitely go you can guarantee that.
On a slightly separate issue...Scotland votes yes...Scotland intends to become independent but there are huge concerns about currency and capital flight. Even if they use the pound theynnees substantial reserves- people have already commented on this. How quickly and to what extent to we have a freeze in money circulation? Who isn't going to immediately hunker down and hoard as much as they can? Payments between businesses, retail spending, commercial and retail transactions- wouldn't they all come to a catastrophic stop? Wouldn't a struggling small business immediately tell its staff "don't come in Monday- I will call you when I have news"? Wouldn't everyone go I to instant survival mode? Am I wrong?
Firstly there would be significant job losses in Scotland. Scottish Life employs I think 4/5k people in Scotland no?
In an environment of protracted cost savings, increasing regulatory pressures, pressure to maintain capital ratios, banks do not need much incentive to cut jobs.
A relocation would almost certainly be a relocation to London. Banks such as RBS have a huge offices in London which cost huge sums to operate. Hence amalgamating functions at the same location has a cost benefit. Although it may take a little time you can be sure that there would be a migration of jobs and anything left in Scotland would be a satellite presence.
Further...in the uncertainty of a yes vote these banks would want to send a clear message to the markets that they are domiciled and protected within the UK regulatory system and that their exposures to Scotland are minimal.
Finally... I have no doubt that while the banks may be waiting and seeing, and while there may be a strong physical presence in Scotland now... A bank simply could not operate within a jurisdiction that has no currency / lender of last resort etc etc... These institutions will undoubtedly be readying themselves for the need to "press the button" and transfer legal ownership / legal domicile etc of assets and liabilities to England. What physical presence apart from staff, branches, computers does a bank really have in Scotland. What cannot be moved electronically? The impact would take time but jobs would definitely go you can guarantee that.
On a slightly separate issue...Scotland votes yes...Scotland intends to become independent but there are huge concerns about currency and capital flight. Even if they use the pound theynnees substantial reserves- people have already commented on this. How quickly and to what extent to we have a freeze in money circulation? Who isn't going to immediately hunker down and hoard as much as they can? Payments between businesses, retail spending, commercial and retail transactions- wouldn't they all come to a catastrophic stop? Wouldn't a struggling small business immediately tell its staff "don't come in Monday- I will call you when I have news"? Wouldn't everyone go I to instant survival mode? Am I wrong?
- edited after coffee break
Edited by menousername on Thursday 11th September 08:49
contango said:
I have the opportunity to deal in investments with different financial institutions, for some time now I have avoided Scottish companies and that is likely to continue. This has to be the worse PR I have ever seen for a country, their tourism revenue, should be interesting going forward?
Yep - we won't get a sense of any damage that may have been done until perhaps a year after the vote. Will be interesting to see the figures on Scottish tourism, Scottish exports (especially of things that are identifiably Scottish), unemployment etc this time next year.menousername said:
Honestly, financial institutions such as the CLYDEsdale Bank, Royal Bank of SCOTLAND and SCOTTISH Life setting up contingency plans to "relocate" to England is a huge warning call.
Firstly there would be significant job losses in Scotland. Scottish Life employs I think 4/5k people in Scotland no?
In an environment of protracted cost savings, increasing regulatory pressures, pressure to maintain capital ratios, banks do not need much incentive to cut jobs.
A relocation would almost certainly be a relocation to London. Banks such as RBS have a huge offices in London which cost huge sums to operate. Hence amalgamating functions at the same location has a cost benefit. Although it may take a little time you can be sure that there would be a migration of jobs and anything left in Scotland would be a satellite presence.
Further...in the uncertainty of a yes vote these banks would want to send a clear message to the markets that they are domiciled and protected within the UK regulatory system and that their exposures to Scotland are minimal.
Finally... I have no doubt that while the banks may be waiting and seeing, and while there may be a strong physical presence in Scotland now... A bank simply could not operate within a jurisdiction that has no currency / lender of last resort etc etc... These institutions will undoubtedly be readying themselves for the need to "press the button" and transfer legal ownership / legal domicile etc of assets and liabilities to England. What physical presence apart from staff, branches, computers does a bank really have in Scotland. What cannot be moved electronically? The impact would take time but jobs would definitely go you can guarantee that.
On a slightly separate issue...Scotland votes yes...Scotland intends to become independent but there are huge concerns about currency and capital flight. Even if they use the pound theynnees substantial reserves- people have already commented on this. How quickly and to what extent to we have a freeze in money circulation? Who isn't going to immediately hunker down and hoard as much as they can? Payments between businesses, retail spending, commercial and retail transactions- wouldn't they all come to a catastrophic stop? Wouldn't a struggling small business immediately tell its staff "don't come in Monday- I will call you when I have news"? Wouldn't everyone go I to instant survival mode? Am I wrong?
Scottish Life is owned by and has recently rebranded to Royal London. They employ a lot of people in Edinburgh but the company isn't registered here any more.Firstly there would be significant job losses in Scotland. Scottish Life employs I think 4/5k people in Scotland no?
In an environment of protracted cost savings, increasing regulatory pressures, pressure to maintain capital ratios, banks do not need much incentive to cut jobs.
A relocation would almost certainly be a relocation to London. Banks such as RBS have a huge offices in London which cost huge sums to operate. Hence amalgamating functions at the same location has a cost benefit. Although it may take a little time you can be sure that there would be a migration of jobs and anything left in Scotland would be a satellite presence.
Further...in the uncertainty of a yes vote these banks would want to send a clear message to the markets that they are domiciled and protected within the UK regulatory system and that their exposures to Scotland are minimal.
Finally... I have no doubt that while the banks may be waiting and seeing, and while there may be a strong physical presence in Scotland now... A bank simply could not operate within a jurisdiction that has no currency / lender of last resort etc etc... These institutions will undoubtedly be readying themselves for the need to "press the button" and transfer legal ownership / legal domicile etc of assets and liabilities to England. What physical presence apart from staff, branches, computers does a bank really have in Scotland. What cannot be moved electronically? The impact would take time but jobs would definitely go you can guarantee that.
On a slightly separate issue...Scotland votes yes...Scotland intends to become independent but there are huge concerns about currency and capital flight. Even if they use the pound theynnees substantial reserves- people have already commented on this. How quickly and to what extent to we have a freeze in money circulation? Who isn't going to immediately hunker down and hoard as much as they can? Payments between businesses, retail spending, commercial and retail transactions- wouldn't they all come to a catastrophic stop? Wouldn't a struggling small business immediately tell its staff "don't come in Monday- I will call you when I have news"? Wouldn't everyone go I to instant survival mode? Am I wrong?
Edinburger said:
e600 said:
I am at a loss to understand why we would want to keep Scotland in the UK, having read all the positives for us if they leave. Perhaps that's why they put Darling in charge of the No campaign .
On balance, other than the immediate turbulence what are the negatives for UK minus Scotland
"I am at a loss to understand why we would want to keep Scotland in the UK"On balance, other than the immediate turbulence what are the negatives for UK minus Scotland
I suspect you don't understand this referendum.
Munter said:
They just had a Yes guy on the BBC saying Scotland has suffered under a government they didn't elect.
Suffered because they have a sub base and a single Tory MP apparently.
I've yet to see any evidence of suffering in scotland myself. They ask for things and the rest of the union go's, "Yeah ok here you go". I see plenty of that. I'm not 100% convinced that's suffering.
just had a guy, McDougal, on LBC, froma Scottish accountacy firm McDougal and something, saying that for the last 30 years Scotland has had a Government in Westminster that they did not vote for, and that the consequence of any big companies leaving Scotland would be no more than brass plaques being moved south.Suffered because they have a sub base and a single Tory MP apparently.
I've yet to see any evidence of suffering in scotland myself. They ask for things and the rest of the union go's, "Yeah ok here you go". I see plenty of that. I'm not 100% convinced that's suffering.
contango said:
Cameron is as good as finished over this. If there is a YES vote (doubtful in reality) he will be seen as the PM who broke up the union.
If there is a no vote, his unauthorised his move to devo max will not go down well with the elctorate in England.
It depends how devo max is handledIf there is a no vote, his unauthorised his move to devo max will not go down well with the elctorate in England.
I live in scotland
I do NOT want to see a blank cheaque devo max
Want i want to see is Scotland keeps the oil revenue and its tax revenue. we then send cash down south to pay for shared services. And we run a balanced budget.
If we want to borrow then we borrow with westministers permission on the UKs credit card
And we MUST solve the west lothian question
And before anyone starts off on a anti scottish rant may i ask you to look at why the west lothian question is called the west lothian question.
Guam said:
Professor Barney said:
Edinburgher wrote:
At the end of the day, the skills, manpower and intellect doesn't exist in North England
Wow, just wow. Looks like George Orwell was right.
And right there is the Anti English sentiment he claims he doesnt hold!At the end of the day, the skills, manpower and intellect doesn't exist in North England
Wow, just wow. Looks like George Orwell was right.
This is why there is a longstanding Animosity between the North of England and the Scots, I have encountered this right through my life, epitomised by the old gag "A Geordie is a Scotsman with his brains kicked in"
Bear in mind he is a non Anti English, fence Sitter though.
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