Snap General Election Tomorrow

[oyster]

AJS- said:

spud989 said:

You're supposing all wrong. They aren't Venn diagram overlaps - the PH vote is a skewed minority within a particular subsection of Tory voters. To say that PH is a representative sample of the potential Tory vote is, for all intents and purposes, ludicrous.

I didn't say that I would expect the election results to faithfully reproduce this poll, but it does indicate a certain trend. Here are 3 different polls over a 4 year period, the first 2 showing overwhelming support for the Tories and the most recent one, with the largest sample yet showing them tied with or slightly behind UKIP.

There will be an element of the 'grass is greener' though. The first 2 polls were done before the general election.

[AJS-]

oyster said:

AJS- said:

spud989 said:

You're supposing all wrong. They aren't Venn diagram overlaps - the PH vote is a skewed minority within a particular subsection of Tory voters. To say that PH is a representative sample of the potential Tory vote is, for all intents and purposes, ludicrous.

I didn't say that I would expect the election results to faithfully reproduce this poll, but it does indicate a certain trend. Here are 3 different polls over a 4 year period, the first 2 showing overwhelming support for the Tories and the most recent one, with the largest sample yet showing them tied with or slightly behind UKIP.

There will be an element of the 'grass is greener' though. The first 2 polls were done before the general election.

Yes, they'll be expecting to lose some votes midterm, it's where the votes are going and in what quantities that are interesting. On this (admittedly tiny and self selecting) sample it seems as though 2 years of a Tory government has motivated some people to switch from Tory to UKIP and perhaps some people who didn't vote last time to also vote UKIP. I'm looking forward to seeing how much on an impact this has in reality tomorrow, and I am cautiously optimistic that we will see some heavy Tory losses, and hopefully some UKIP gains.

[oyster]

AJS- said:

oyster said:

AJS- said:

spud989 said:

You're supposing all wrong. They aren't Venn diagram overlaps - the PH vote is a skewed minority within a particular subsection of Tory voters. To say that PH is a representative sample of the potential Tory vote is, for all intents and purposes, ludicrous.

I didn't say that I would expect the election results to faithfully reproduce this poll, but it does indicate a certain trend. Here are 3 different polls over a 4 year period, the first 2 showing overwhelming support for the Tories and the most recent one, with the largest sample yet showing them tied with or slightly behind UKIP.

There will be an element of the 'grass is greener' though. The first 2 polls were done before the general election.

Yes, they'll be expecting to lose some votes midterm, it's where the votes are going and in what quantities that are interesting. On this (admittedly tiny and self selecting) sample it seems as though 2 years of a Tory government has motivated some people to switch from Tory to UKIP and perhaps some people who didn't vote last time to also vote UKIP. I'm looking forward to seeing how much on an impact this has in reality tomorrow, and I am cautiously optimistic that we will see some heavy Tory losses, and hopefully some UKIP gains.

It's not a Tory government though. And I do wonder whether people moaning about the Tories are actually factoring in the effect of being in a coalition. Especially given they are in coalition with the most pro-EU party.

[AJS-]

oyster said:

It's not a Tory government though. And I do wonder whether people moaning about the Tories are actually factoring in the effect of being in a coalition. Especially given they are in coalition with the most pro-EU party.

Which begs the question of why they are in the coalition at all, if their Eurosceptic credentials had any real currency. And the question sort of begs the answer that it can only really be because they want to be in government regardless of how useless they are when they get there.

[speedy_thrills]

Interestingly the higher an individuals income and the younger an individual is the more likely they are to be pro-EU. Linky to the data again.

There isn't any political mileage in being pro or anti EU.

Pandering to the anti-EU groups in the Conservative party would be a lose-lose situation because no matter which side wins the Conservatives would lose votes. By not having the referendum even those who defect to UKIP or the BNP don't matter because the electoral system keeps those parties from getting seats. So ignoring the EU (except when there is cheap political mileage to be made like not joining a fiscal pact, the obligations of which the UK couldn't hope to meet anyway) is the best strategy for the Conservatives.

[AshVX220]

speedy_thrills said:

Interestingly the higher an individuals income and the younger an individual is the more likely they are to be pro-EU. Linky to the data again.

There isn't any political mileage in being pro or anti EU.

Pandering to the anti-EU groups in the Conservative party would be a lose-lose situation because no matter which side wins the Conservatives would lose votes. By not having the referendum even those who defect to UKIP or the BNP don't matter because the electoral system keeps those parties from getting seats. So ignoring the EU (except when there is cheap political mileage to be made like not joining a fiscal pact, the obligations of which the UK couldn't hope to meet anyway) is the best strategy for the Conservatives.

How did the Greenies manage to get a seat at the last election, and what's to stop UKIP doing the same at the next election?

And with that in mind, how did Galloway manage to do so well recently?

Personally, I think the tide is changing and the big three need to wake and take note, or there'll find themselves in regular coalitions with some of these smaller parties.

[BOR]

oyster said:

2. The huge amount of support from AB voters for both the Lib Dems and Labour. So despite the arguments on this thread, it seems the core Tory vote wasn't really so strong even at the general election. I suspect this has a lot to do with the 'Cleggmania' effect at the time for the Lib Dems, but I do not understand it for Labour. Can't all be champagne socialists.

Equally, why such high levels of Tory support from C1 C2 DE ? It's the equivalent of turkeys voting for christmas.

[Derek Smith]

speedy_thrills said:

Interestingly the higher an individuals income and the younger an individual is the more likely they are to be pro-EU. Linky to the data again.

There isn't any political mileage in being pro or anti EU.

Pandering to the anti-EU groups in the Conservative party would be a lose-lose situation because no matter which side wins the Conservatives would lose votes. By not having the referendum even those who defect to UKIP or the BNP don't matter because the electoral system keeps those parties from getting seats. So ignoring the EU (except when there is cheap political mileage to be made like not joining a fiscal pact, the obligations of which the UK couldn't hope to meet anyway) is the best strategy for the Conservatives.

My kids are very pro EU for the ease of travel, the lack of borders and the ease of movement between countries for living, etc. They are irritated by the border controls in this country. My eldest has a Japanese wife, the next an Irish husband, and the youngest has a Polish partner. Mention this at a dinner party and other couples my age will bring in other parts of the world tht they kids have married into. It appears to be the norm.

My Japanese daughter-in-law used to spend over an hour coming through Heathrow when living in this country despite having all the proper papers and permissions. Yet once into the EU she could cross borders with ease.

My kids are angry with the waste and dishonesty of the EU but then they point out the waste and dishonesty in the UK government.

Whilst one doesn't want to mention the war, there was some chap who created a bete noir and blamed everything that was wrong with the country on them.

[speedy_thrills]

They are exceptions and exceptional. I can't think of anywhere UKIP is close to a seat or anyone UKIP has that could win a seat. Even in the target seat of Buckingham where Farage himself stood he didn't even make half of the votes he needed.

[speedy_thrills]

Derek Smith said:

Stuff

The open borders thing is very useful. I'm inclined to be pro-EU if only for the freedom of travel, access to work opportunities for individuals and cultural aspects of membership.

[Idealistic] Maybe one day all borders will be open and there will be one world government. All humans treated with equality etc. [/Idealism]

[P-Jay]

Wow, 246 votes for UKIP... Must be some kind of record for them.

They're a one policy party and stand about as much chance of winning an election as Gary Glitter.

I honestly don't know who I'd vote for if I had to tomorrow. I actually voted Liberal last time, I got caught up in the whole debate thing and set aside habit and all the bobbings about their performances, on policies I agreed with them the most - won't be doing it again though.

This current arrangement will set them back 10 years - their Tory masters essentially killed the idea of getting rid of 'first past the post' by offering the worst system of PR possible and did they're best to discredit it to ensure in all-but-name 2 party system continues.

Labour aren't offering anything new, just knocking the government, something I always hated the Tories for.

My number one issue (and the same for most I think) is the economy. The Tories have gone a long way towards winning this die-hard Labour voter over (I'm from Wales - hatred of the Tories has been in our blood since they gutted the pits) but my great fear is they're trying to re-inflate the boom bubble rather than fix the economy, deficit reduction, needs to be done and frankly they've been a lot fairer than I thought they would, but I haven't heard any plans to re-balance the economy, or get the underclass who were allowed to sit idle for the last 10-15 years into the factories and other production roles. I'm sure we could have a quick-fix and go back to pouring billions of borrowed money, secured against over-valued assets into the factories of the Far East, but we'd be back in the st in 10 years or less and we might not get out of it next time.

[AJS-]

I think that probably explains the relatively low support for the EU amongst middle-low earners compared with higher earners. The EU has been a lot kinder to lawyers than to plumbers and plasterers.

I do enjoy the open borders, and don't have a problem with other EU citizens coming to work and live in the UK. My wife is Thai and my parents live in France, so to visit the UK and my parents she needs 2 visas. So joining Shengen would actually be useful for me.

Free trade just makes sense.

Both are readily available outside the EU, as Switzerland has shown. Norway and Iceland also have free trade. I'm not sure about travel arrangements.

None of it though is a reason to abandon democratic government and join up with a doomed political and economic union.

[AshVX220]

P-Jay said:

Wow, 246 votes for UKIP... Must be some kind of record for them.

They're a one policy party and stand about as much chance of winning an election as Gary Glitter.

I honestly don't know who I'd vote for if I had to tomorrow. I actually voted Liberal last time, I got caught up in the whole debate thing and set aside habit and all the bobbings about their performances, on policies I agreed with them the most - won't be doing it again though.

This current arrangement will set them back 10 years - their Tory masters essentially killed the idea of getting rid of 'first past the post' by offering the worst system of PR possible and did they're best to discredit it to ensure in all-but-name 2 party system continues.

Labour aren't offering anything new, just knocking the government, something I always hated the Tories for.

My number one issue (and the same for most I think) is the economy. The Tories have gone a long way towards winning this die-hard Labour voter over (I'm from Wales - hatred of the Tories has been in our blood since they gutted the pits) but my great fear is they're trying to re-inflate the boom bubble rather than fix the economy, deficit reduction, needs to be done and frankly they've been a lot fairer than I thought they would, but I haven't heard any plans to re-balance the economy, or get the underclass who were allowed to sit idle for the last 10-15 years into the factories and other production roles. I'm sure we could have a quick-fix and go back to pouring billions of borrowed money, secured against over-valued assets into the factories of the Far East, but we'd be back in the st in 10 years or less and we might not get out of it next time.

FFS read and understand the UKIP Manifesto, instead of towing the "One trick pony" line.

They have more credible idea's about fixing the economy than the other parties put together, they understand how to get the deficit down and the economy moving for a start.

And no, the public sector does not = the economy.

[odyssey2200]

AshVX220 said:

And no, the public sector does not = the economy.

Agreed 100%


The problem is that many politicians, especially those with red ties, didn't see it that way.

[Derek Smith]

AshVX220 said:

FFS read and understand the UKIP Manifesto, instead of towing the "One trick pony" line.

UKIP reckons that leaving the EU will save the economy and put money into everyone's pockets. Apart from that they want to keep the nuclear deterrent, put more money into the NHS, choice of schools, no student fees for uni, grammar schools to be reintroduced, the doubling of prison places, no police cuts, and a repeal of the HRA.

All the modifications will be paid for by the massive savings we get when we leave the EU.

So that's the UKIP in a nutcase shell.

[P-Jay]

AshVX220 said:

FFS read and understand the UKIP Manifesto, instead of towing the "One trick pony" line.

They have more credible idea's about fixing the economy than the other parties put together, they understand how to get the deficit down and the economy moving for a start.

And no, the public sector does not = the economy.

If they're not a one policy party, why set their stall out by calling themselves "the UK independence party" If someone knocked my door claiming to be from the 'Votes for Dogs Party' it would be fair to assume their big issue was to allow Dogs a vote. I want the UK to remain part of Europe their rhetoric goes against all that so I don't bother to research any further – and more people agree with me, than they do with UKIP.

If they truly are a mutli-policy party interested in every aspect of life in Britain they should set their stall out as such, but they don't, because whilst they offer an manifesto covering many subjects no doubt, they're core belief is based on a Xenophobic view of the EU and their great aim for us to it leave it.

[AJS-]

Any examples of this xenophobia?

[ewenm]

I have no idea who I'd vote for in a general election now. Our MP is unsure whether he's going to stand again and as none of the major parties appear to have a clear ideology, I can't predict what policies each one will come up with in an election, so have no way of choosing at the moment.

[odyssey2200]

P-Jay said:

they'reTHEIR core belief is based on a Xenophobic view of the EU and their great aim for us to it leave it.

fixed that for you

as opposed to the other parties who are too busy short stroking over the EU and handing over sovereignty. power and cash in return for restrictions, red tape, regulation and aggro.

[0a]

speedy_thrills said:

They are exceptions and exceptional. I can't think of anywhere UKIP is close to a seat or anyone UKIP has that could win a seat. Even in the target seat of Buckingham where Farage himself stood he didn't even make half of the votes he needed.

UKIP acts as the conscience of the Tories and they have/will have a big impact on UK politics by allowing Tories to register their unhappiness with the pro-EU, anti-business, high tax/spend Tory policies.

The benefit of sending this message via a UKIP vote is, in my opinion, now more than the disadvantage of Labour government getting elected given how similar the two parties are in the areas mentioned above. Labour are unlikely to be able to spend any more than the Tories are already given our debt levels - it would be IMF bailout time (with mandated spending cuts - perhaps not a bad thing).

It will be interesting to watch how this plays out. For the first time I know many, many people who are intelligent and "non-swivel-eyed" who will be voting UKIP - they are not just saying it!