The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 3)
Discussion
Jonesy23 said:
If it was the right move to make they'd be doing it now, regardless, rather than wait.
If we leave with a bad deal and they've hung around it would be too late to sort and they'd be stuffed.
If they move now and we stay - and their various claims are correct - then they're still OK, complete with shiny new plant and cheaper workers.
So logic suggests that if they're aren't already in the process of relocating plants then the statement is actually meaningless. Either the numbers aren't as bad as they imply or the value of the existing plant, 'UK made' aspect and so on means it'd be worth sticking around in spite of any changes.
It seems more like they just want to protect the brand from what may pass.If we leave with a bad deal and they've hung around it would be too late to sort and they'd be stuffed.
If they move now and we stay - and their various claims are correct - then they're still OK, complete with shiny new plant and cheaper workers.
So logic suggests that if they're aren't already in the process of relocating plants then the statement is actually meaningless. Either the numbers aren't as bad as they imply or the value of the existing plant, 'UK made' aspect and so on means it'd be worth sticking around in spite of any changes.
If there is a poor deal but May pushes it through to stay in power for another five minutes, then Ralph can pack up shop safe in the knowledge he did f
king warn you.Kccv23highliftcam said:
Who gives a st.
Really if that's what they want to do, then goodbye.
Same goes for you, btw.
Terrible attitude , and one that summarises the worst of this brexit debacle.t.Really if that's what they want to do, then goodbye.
Same goes for you, btw.
Who gives a sh@t? Maybe those who’s livelihoods are on the line? But as long as you’re ok eh?
Gloria Slap said:
JLR boss Ralph Speth said - and this is a direct quote - “If I’m forced to go out because we don’t have the right deal, then we have to close plants here in the UK and it will be very, very sad.”
Clear enough for you, or does he actually need to come around your house and drill it into your skulls?
He’ll need an SDS, obviously.
So polite. You're right, he did indeed say that. My mistake.Clear enough for you, or does he actually need to come around your house and drill it into your skulls?
He’ll need an SDS, obviously.
So we want a good deal with Europe. I'm all for that. My criteria are that we have the ability to make our own trade deals, set our own tariffs, and are not forced to follow EU rules with no ability to influence them. How about you?
Do you think the current proposals will stop JLR moving further jobs overseas - to Slovakia, China and Brazil?
Tuna said:
So polite. You're right, he did indeed say that. My mistake.
So we want a good deal with Europe. I'm all for that. My criteria are that we have the ability to make our own trade deals, set our own tariffs, and are not forced to follow EU rules with no ability to influence them. How about you?
Do you think the current proposals will stop JLR moving further jobs overseas - to Slovakia, China and Brazil?
The May proposal (if as rumoured) tries to do everything but its prospects don’t appear rosey.So we want a good deal with Europe. I'm all for that. My criteria are that we have the ability to make our own trade deals, set our own tariffs, and are not forced to follow EU rules with no ability to influence them. How about you?
Do you think the current proposals will stop JLR moving further jobs overseas - to Slovakia, China and Brazil?
The need to sort customs for NI is the circle she can’t square. She may be backed into EEA and then the hardliners will revolt and boot her out, baying for an exit out of the CU.
I have not yet heard of a credible exit plan that solves the NI and custom friction issue that does not trample her red lines.
Do you think the EU will fold? I think they will insist on some form of CU for NI, as agreed as a backstop in phase 1. I can’t see them budging anytime soon.
If that doesn’t wash its back to hard WTO brexit and all that entails, inc JLR risk.
Where is the solution in the middle? Who has to and will give?
Trade comes first for me, the rest is noise frankly.
(Fair play for admitting he said it. Glad no drilling was required)
Edited by Gloria Slap on Friday 6th July 00:31
Gloria Slap said:
I have not yet heard of a credible exit plan that solves the NI and custom friction issue that does not trample her red lines.
It seems to me that the NI issue is being made more difficult than it needs to be by people who want to force the overall negotiations in a particular direction.As for custom friction, it's also being overblown. UK car exports to Europe have risen in value by around £4bn due to shifts in the value of the pound since the Brexit vote - the idea that tariffs and 'free trade' work completely in isolation is plainly nonsense. Giving up control of some of those levers in the belief that the others will stay exactly where they are is optimistic at best.
Tuna said:
Gloria Slap said:
I have not yet heard of a credible exit plan that solves the NI and custom friction issue that does not trample her red lines.
It seems to me that the NI issue is being made more difficult than it needs to be by people who want to force the overall negotiations in a particular direction.
p1stonhead said:
Tuna said:
Gloria Slap said:
I have not yet heard of a credible exit plan that solves the NI and custom friction issue that does not trample her red lines.
It seems to me that the NI issue is being made more difficult than it needs to be by people who want to force the overall negotiations in a particular direction.As Burwood, Davepoth and I have mentioned - with sea and air freight it's entirely usual to have zero measurable delay in customs clearance through AEO status and pre-clearance.
The 'problem' is that no one has applied similar principles to road freight.
A combination of 'customs operator thresholds', enhancements to the AEO scheme, implementation of customs clearance 'zones' along the border and an improved IT infrastructure solves the problem.
Not only that, but it would also massively improve all other goods movements through the border - which surely is a positive for a trading nation?
The only blocker to this is time. Time is something that can be negotiated.
Sway said:
Not really. The solution is actually fairly straightforward - the "friction" is caused by how the necessary processes are conducted by many nations. There is no reason for that to be a hindrance in designing a new approach to completing the process.
As Burwood, Davepoth and I have mentioned - with sea and air freight it's entirely usual to have zero measurable delay in customs clearance through AEO status and pre-clearance.
The 'problem' is that no one has applied similar principles to road freight.
A combination of 'customs operator thresholds', enhancements to the AEO scheme, implementation of customs clearance 'zones' along the border and an improved IT infrastructure solves the problem.
Not only that, but it would also massively improve all other goods movements through the border - which surely is a positive for a trading nation?
The only blocker to this is time. Time is something that can be negotiated.
There is no off the shelf solution to road freight, and even if UK pushed ahead to implement on its side, there is no will to make it happen on all EU vehicles, fleet operators and firms. The costs are huge, nevermind the delays, to solve a problem the EU and the CU doesn’t have, and the UK are seeking to create.As Burwood, Davepoth and I have mentioned - with sea and air freight it's entirely usual to have zero measurable delay in customs clearance through AEO status and pre-clearance.
The 'problem' is that no one has applied similar principles to road freight.
A combination of 'customs operator thresholds', enhancements to the AEO scheme, implementation of customs clearance 'zones' along the border and an improved IT infrastructure solves the problem.
Not only that, but it would also massively improve all other goods movements through the border - which surely is a positive for a trading nation?
The only blocker to this is time. Time is something that can be negotiated.
It ironic that after all the moaning about the costs of running the EU in brussels and strasbourg - which is daft - the UK now expects the EU to spend millions/billions to remove frictions to trade in only one border that the UK has decided to create, so it can try and “out trade deal” the EU in other markets.
Sway said:
Not really. The solution is actually fairly straightforward - the "friction" is caused by how the necessary processes are conducted by many nations. There is no reason for that to be a hindrance in designing a new approach to completing the process.
As Burwood, Davepoth and I have mentioned - with sea and air freight it's entirely usual to have zero measurable delay in customs clearance through AEO status and pre-clearance.
The 'problem' is that no one has applied similar principles to road freight.
A combination of 'customs operator thresholds', enhancements to the AEO scheme, implementation of customs clearance 'zones' along the border and an improved IT infrastructure solves the problem.
Not only that, but it would also massively improve all other goods movements through the border - which surely is a positive for a trading nation?
The only blocker to this is time. Time is something that can be negotiated.
White van man doesn't float or fly, how would you deal with that?As Burwood, Davepoth and I have mentioned - with sea and air freight it's entirely usual to have zero measurable delay in customs clearance through AEO status and pre-clearance.
The 'problem' is that no one has applied similar principles to road freight.
A combination of 'customs operator thresholds', enhancements to the AEO scheme, implementation of customs clearance 'zones' along the border and an improved IT infrastructure solves the problem.
Not only that, but it would also massively improve all other goods movements through the border - which surely is a positive for a trading nation?
The only blocker to this is time. Time is something that can be negotiated.
Gloria Slap said:
Sway said:
Not really. The solution is actually fairly straightforward - the "friction" is caused by how the necessary processes are conducted by many nations. There is no reason for that to be a hindrance in designing a new approach to completing the process.
As Burwood, Davepoth and I have mentioned - with sea and air freight it's entirely usual to have zero measurable delay in customs clearance through AEO status and pre-clearance.
The 'problem' is that no one has applied similar principles to road freight.
A combination of 'customs operator thresholds', enhancements to the AEO scheme, implementation of customs clearance 'zones' along the border and an improved IT infrastructure solves the problem.
Not only that, but it would also massively improve all other goods movements through the border - which surely is a positive for a trading nation?
The only blocker to this is time. Time is something that can be negotiated.
There is no off the shelf solution to road freight, and even if UK pushed ahead to implement on its side, there is no will to make it happen on all EU vehicles, fleet operators and firms. The costs are huge, nevermind the delays, to solve a problem the EU and the CU doesn’t have, and the UK are seeking to create.As Burwood, Davepoth and I have mentioned - with sea and air freight it's entirely usual to have zero measurable delay in customs clearance through AEO status and pre-clearance.
The 'problem' is that no one has applied similar principles to road freight.
A combination of 'customs operator thresholds', enhancements to the AEO scheme, implementation of customs clearance 'zones' along the border and an improved IT infrastructure solves the problem.
Not only that, but it would also massively improve all other goods movements through the border - which surely is a positive for a trading nation?
The only blocker to this is time. Time is something that can be negotiated.
It ironic that after all the moaning about the costs of running the EU in brussels and strasbourg - which is daft - the UK now expects the EU to spend millions/billions to remove frictions to trade in only one border that the UK has decided to create, so it can try and “out trade deal” the EU in other markets.
No, there's no 'off the shelf' software package. There wasn't when we built the current systems.
There's plenty of will from operators to join such schemes - that's why they exist!
The delays you mention are the ones that disappear - and it's not just one border, it's all of them. Remember pointing out that the Norway/Sweden border has delays? Or that Turkey is a nightmare for moving goods through? There's the solution.
There's nothing in my post that even comes close to a customs processing system improvement leading to "out trade deal"ing the EU.
Quite simply, you've already proven you simply do not have a clue about how customs, inspections, certifications and tariffs actually work. This post merely reinforces it.
Sway said:
Again, you cannot read.
No, there's no 'off the shelf' software package. There wasn't when we built the current systems.
There's plenty of will from operators to join such schemes - that's why they exist!
The delays you mention are the ones that disappear - and it's not just one border, it's all of them. Remember pointing out that the Norway/Sweden border has delays? Or that Turkey is a nightmare for moving goods through? There's the solution.
There's nothing in my post that even comes close to a customs processing system improvement leading to "out trade deal"ing the EU.
Quite simply, you've already proven you simply do not have a clue about how customs, inspections, certifications and tariffs actually work. This post merely reinforces it.
Rather than just say “you don’t have a clue”, you could try and understand the point being made. No, there's no 'off the shelf' software package. There wasn't when we built the current systems.
There's plenty of will from operators to join such schemes - that's why they exist!
The delays you mention are the ones that disappear - and it's not just one border, it's all of them. Remember pointing out that the Norway/Sweden border has delays? Or that Turkey is a nightmare for moving goods through? There's the solution.
There's nothing in my post that even comes close to a customs processing system improvement leading to "out trade deal"ing the EU.
Quite simply, you've already proven you simply do not have a clue about how customs, inspections, certifications and tariffs actually work. This post merely reinforces it.
You agree there is nothing off the shelf.
Creating a new system takes money & time. Implementing it costs lots of money for every operator. You seem to be willing to pay as you are facing a threat to continued UK-EU frictionless movement and other brexit goals make it worth it for you. Some companies operating into Norway and crossing the Turkish border may see an attraction too.
But the millions of operators who don’t face these costs to move within the EU today could be lumped with them to satisfy a May red line. They are understandably reluctant.
And surely the brexit dream is to “out trade deal” - i.e. get better trade deals than the EU can manage - to get an edge for the UK. If we are just aiming for “the exact same deals as the EU”, what is the point?
Try to think about why you believe implementing a new system requires costs for operators.
When you understand why that is incorrect, you'll start to understand why you are merely displaying ignorance.
Yes, it'll take time. The cost to government/taxpayer is sorted by the net financial benefit of reduced friction - after all, you're the one stating how expensive and disastrous customs processing delays are...
When you understand why that is incorrect, you'll start to understand why you are merely displaying ignorance.
Yes, it'll take time. The cost to government/taxpayer is sorted by the net financial benefit of reduced friction - after all, you're the one stating how expensive and disastrous customs processing delays are...
Ghibli said:
Do you actually follow what is going on in these negotiations?
Yes. I have mentioned a few times that I broadly ignore them. The actual interesting bit is yet to happen - all both sides are doing is priming the crisis that'll actually drive talks.I called you ignorant of customs practices because you demonstrated very clearly you are, giving the areas of misunderstanding so you could educate yourself.
Gloria Slap said:
There is no off the shelf solution to road freight, and even if UK pushed ahead to implement on its side, there is no will to make it happen on all EU vehicles, fleet operators and firms. The costs are huge, nevermind the delays, to solve a problem the EU and the CU doesn’t have, and the UK are seeking to create.
It ironic that after all the moaning about the costs of running the EU in brussels and strasbourg - which is daft - the UK now expects the EU to spend millions/billions to remove frictions to trade in only one border that the UK has decided to create, so it can try and “out trade deal” the EU in other markets.
I say that NI issues are being treated as more difficult than they have to be by people trying to drive the debate... and here you are, bang on time.It ironic that after all the moaning about the costs of running the EU in brussels and strasbourg - which is daft - the UK now expects the EU to spend millions/billions to remove frictions to trade in only one border that the UK has decided to create, so it can try and “out trade deal” the EU in other markets.
The point here is that this is a problem we can look to solve 'once and for all' - with whatever technological and pragmatic solutions we can muster. Solve it once and get on with our lives. We're a smart nation, let's do it.
Personally I find that preferable to accepting a nationwide compromise that will affect my children's children.
Sway said:
Ghibli said:
Do you actually follow what is going on in these negotiations?
Yes. I have mentioned a few times that I broadly ignore them. The actual interesting bit is yet to happen - all both sides are doing is priming the crisis that'll actually drive talks.I called you ignorant of customs practices because you demonstrated very clearly you are, giving the areas of misunderstanding so you could educate yourself.
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