UK General Election 2015

[hidetheelephants]

Zod said:

The EU is running scared. There is a real possibility of Cameron, Sarkozy and Merkel with support from other Northern countries pushing for major change within the next two years. You f course if Miliband is running things here, he'll side with the spongers of Southern Europe and we'll be stuffed.

Sarkozy's living it up with his model wife and his collection of platform shoes, I doubt he gives a fk; he's certainly not in a position to do any such thing.

[Vaud]

hidetheelephants said:

Sarkozy's living it up with his model wife and his collection of platform shoes, I doubt he gives a fk; he's certainly not in a position to do any such thing.

Not today, but he will probably run in 2017 and stands a good chance of winning. That's not that far away.

[Welshbeef]

One annoyance I have is that interviewers keep asking/srating to the PM you didn't deliver on your promise of no deficit after the current govt.

Reasons why they do.
Turns out the recession and decline pre new govt was vastly worse than they were aware
Labour had been hiding the fact that they had been running huge structural deficits since 2003
It's a coalition they couldn't do everything they wanted
Europe had massive issues not in the original forecast
Scotland for the last 2-3 years has been on pause due to the referendum so poor economic growth
Fines on the UK banks from the USA wiping out profits
Lots of plebs in the UK all after PPI wiping out the banks
New lending rules tight on the banks as they were zombie banks so had to earn their way out of it which took time.
BP mecondo well
Tax takes lower than planned due to point 1 the recession had been far worse than anyone had realised
They moved to plan C rather than press on with harder cuts to help the public
Bonkers PFI deals labour did for NHS costing future govt billions
Mass immigration and people living longer further increase in NHS costs
The fact that some individuals who don't work simply refuse to take any work as its "beneath them". So we get people on from Europe who will happily do the job and then we pay the non worker £26k in benefits... Mind boggles. If your able to work and cannot find work that you'd like to do then you man up take the job your offered of stop benefits. Find the job you want while you work

Lots of other things too but I'd say that covers this up quite nicely. Why does he and George not use it they pay lip service yet if they went a little granular Joe Bloggs can understand or think yes that's a fair point.

Lastly there has not been any austerity every year spend has increased - not sure how that would go down with voters

[hidetheelephants]

Vaud said:

hidetheelephants said:

Sarkozy's living it up with his model wife and his collection of platform shoes, I doubt he gives a fk; he's certainly not in a position to do any such thing.

Not today, but he will probably run in 2017 and stands a good chance of winning. That's not that far away.

That's assuming the french don't go full retard and vote in Le Pen; she's had her horns removed and the cloven hooves hardly show in those heels.

[Vaud]

hidetheelephants said:

That's assuming the french don't go full retard and vote in Le Pen; she's had her horns removed and the cloven hooves hardly show in those heels.

True. Though as a French friend said, we might be stupid frogs, but we aren't that stupid...

[LordGrover]

Sorry if this has come up before, but I've not been following closely.

My constituency was true blue until the 97 election when the Liberals got in. Has been ever since, and the sitting MP Steve Webb is pretty much a nailed on certainty. That is unless Ukip pull something out of the hat but I sincerely expect and hope that won't be the case.

How many seats are 'marginal' and have a chance of making a difference?

[edh]

Zod said:

The EU is running scared. There is a real possibility of Cameron, Sarkozy and Merkel with support from other Northern countries pushing for major change within the next two years. You f course if Miliband is running things here, he'll side with the spongers of Southern Europe and we'll be stuffed.

Why would Labour act against the interests of the UK?

For once, Labour is promoting significant decentralisation and constitutional change in its manifesto. I don't see it supporting "ever closer union". Remember that there is opposition to EU on the left as well.

Along with the opaque and unaccountable bureaucracy, I think CAP is the main problem with EU - and the one thing that UKIP wants to retain (i.e. massive uncapped subsidies to large landowners). Reform this and we cut costs dramatically.

[Digga]

edh said:

Why would Labour act against the interests of the UK?

Well for a start, can you honestly see Wallace (and his team) driving a good, hard bargain for the UK and actually being an agent for change? I'm sorry, but he really strikes me as the sort of person who'd cave in tough, protracted negotiation, who'd piss down either or both his own trouser legs in the face of a big decision.

Then there's the not inconsiderable history Labour politicians have of sloping off into the depths of the EU/ECB/IMF, post UK political career, to live off the gravy train. Do you really expect the turkeys to vote for Christmas?

[Asterix]

Digga said:

edh said:

Why would Labour act against the interests of the UK?

Well for a start, can you honestly see Wallace (and his team) driving a good, hard bargain for the UK and actually being an agent for change? I'm sorry, but he really strikes me as the sort of person who'd cave in tough, protracted negotiation, who'd piss down either or both his own trouser legs in the face of a big decision.

Then there's the not inconsiderable history Labour politicians have of sloping off into the depths of the EU/ECB/IMF, post UK political career, to live off the gravy train. Do you really expect the turkeys to vote for Christmas?

Anyone see the 'House of Cards' recent episode with the Russian President?

[LordGrover]

Guam said:

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2015/...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-25949029

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/general-elect...

Ta

[edh]

Welshbeef said:

One annoyance I have is that interviewers keep asking/srating to the PM you didn't deliver on your promise of no deficit after the current govt.

Reasons why they do.
Turns out the recession and decline pre new govt was vastly worse than they were aware
Labour had been hiding the fact that they had been running huge structural deficits since 2003
It's a coalition they couldn't do everything they wanted
Europe had massive issues not in the original forecast
Scotland for the last 2-3 years has been on pause due to the referendum so poor economic growth
Fines on the UK banks from the USA wiping out profits
Lots of plebs in the UK all after PPI wiping out the banks
New lending rules tight on the banks as they were zombie banks so had to earn their way out of it which took time.
BP mecondo well
Tax takes lower than planned due to point 1 the recession had been far worse than anyone had realised
They moved to plan C rather than press on with harder cuts to help the public
Bonkers PFI deals labour did for NHS costing future govt billions
Mass immigration and people living longer further increase in NHS costs
The fact that some individuals who don't work simply refuse to take any work as its "beneath them". So we get people on from Europe who will happily do the job and then we pay the non worker £26k in benefits... Mind boggles. If your able to work and cannot find work that you'd like to do then you man up take the job your offered of stop benefits. Find the job you want while you work

Lots of other things too but I'd say that covers this up quite nicely. Why does he and George not use it they pay lip service yet if they went a little granular Joe Bloggs can understand or think yes that's a fair point.

Lastly there has not been any austerity every year spend has increased - not sure how that would go down with voters

If they weren't able to understand most if not all of the above in 2010, they were incompetent. You're right that they changed course in order to finally generate some growth after suppressing it for 3 years (remember the economy was growing when they took office). They don't want to admit that the growth is as a result of their loosening. Suits the electoral cycle though..

btw - I like some of your excuses - very creative....

"Plebs" claiming PPI because those lovely banks accidentally made a monumental mess and sold policies to people who would not ever be able to claim on them. How dare they!
US levying massive fines on UK banks because of trivial & minor oversights in governance (although I think it was banks' losses that wiped out tax payments, not fines)
"Zombie banks" - ah that won't be the bank's fault again would it?
People living longer...who would have thought it?
oh yes, and every "non-worker" gets £26k pa benefits...

[wc98]

edh said:

If they weren't able to understand most if not all of the above in 2010, they were incompetent. You're right that they changed course in order to finally generate some growth after suppressing it for 3 years (remember the economy was growing when they took office). They don't want to admit that the growth is as a result of their loosening. Suits the electoral cycle though..

btw - I like some of your excuses - very creative....

"Plebs" claiming PPI because those lovely banks accidentally made a monumental mess and sold policies to people who would not ever be able to claim on them. How dare they!
US levying massive fines on UK banks because of trivial & minor oversights in governance (although I think it was banks' losses that wiped out tax payments, not fines)
"Zombie banks" - ah that won't be the bank's fault again would it?
People living longer...who would have thought it?
oh yes, and every "non-worker" gets £26k pa benefits...

+1

[Digga]

Slightly O/T but interesting is the fact that, post GFC, concepts such as "debt" and "deficit" are now more commonly discussed by the man on the street and (marginally) better understood.

Now the political inepts (Ed balls for one) know these metrics are on the radar, they have to be a bit more creative in their fiscal fibbery.

[johnxjsc1985]

wc98 said:

+1

I know that person. He is unemployed has four children has a car and a 28ft boat i phone etc Sky digital and broadband. if you add it all up it does get close to £25k and he is fit for work and i dont know why he hasnt been "found out" yet.Oh and he does have a PPI claim.

[turbobloke]

edh said:

...they changed course in order to finally generate some growth after suppressing it for 3 years...

It's either a parrot or this...an astonishing economic upturn around 2001 clearly invisible in the charts below, then when the shti hit the fan it was too late and we got the brownturn faster and deeper.





ETA so, in a rush, it's the parrot...2010, 2000 etc.

Edited by turbobloke on Thursday 16th April 11:45

[NoNeed]

edh said:

If they weren't able to understand most if not all of the above in 2010, they were incompetent. You're right that they changed course in order to finally generate some growth after suppressing it for 3 years (remember the economy was growing when they took office). They don't want to admit that the growth is as a result of their loosening. Suits the electoral cycle though..

Ok I will offer you exactly the same terms that the coalition had when they took office.

The economy had grown by 1.7% of GDP but in order to achieve this we had to borrow 10% of GDP. Doesn't sound so good now does it because if you accept these term I will indeed give you £1.700 all you have to do is sign an agreement that you owe me £10,000.

Growth does not always mean good. It was absolute madness to borrow so much in return for so little it was not only unsustainable it would have lead to an economic disaster greater than the great depression.

So do you want my £1.700?

[turbobloke]

edh said:

...they changed course in order to finally generate some growth after suppressing it for 3 years...

turbobloke said:

It's either a parrot or this...

Instead of killing the bird via psittacosis - was the private sector growth, supposedly suppressed, going to happen as it did (and still is happening) without a rebalancing of the economy away from the bloated public sector...and given that public spending is the G part of the GDP calculation GDP = C + G + I + (X - M) what was the order of events likely to be?

[edh]

NoNeed said:

edh said:

If they weren't able to understand most if not all of the above in 2010, they were incompetent. You're right that they changed course in order to finally generate some growth after suppressing it for 3 years (remember the economy was growing when they took office). They don't want to admit that the growth is as a result of their loosening. Suits the electoral cycle though..

Ok I will offer you exactly the same terms that the coalition had when they took office.

The economy had grown by 1.7% of GDP but in order to achieve this we had to borrow 10% of GDP. Doesn't sound so good now does it because if you accept these term I will indeed give you £1.700 all you have to do is sign an agreement that you owe me £10,000.

Growth does not always mean good. It was absolute madness to borrow so much in return for so little it was not only unsustainable it would have lead to an economic disaster greater than the great depression.

So do you want my £1.700?

1.5% on first half of 2010 ..and we're now borrowing £90bn pa still. Anyway I thought we were all Keynesians these days...

[edh]

Digga said:

edh said:

Why would Labour act against the interests of the UK?

Well for a start, can you honestly see Wallace (and his team) driving a good, hard bargain for the UK and actually being an agent for change? I'm sorry, but he really strikes me as the sort of person who'd cave in tough, protracted negotiation, who'd piss down either or both his own trouser legs in the face of a big decision.

Then there's the not inconsiderable history Labour politicians have of sloping off into the depths of the EU/ECB/IMF, post UK political career, to live off the gravy train. Do you really expect the turkeys to vote for Christmas?

I thought we're told Milliband is now a ruthless backstabber who'd stop at nothing to get what he wanted - maybe he'd be an excellent negotiator?

Honestly do you think it does you any credit to portray him as someone "who'd piss down either or both his own trouser legs in the face of a big decision."? Puerile nonsense

Politicians of all colours seem to live off the EU gravy train, including many Tories & that nice Mr Farage

[NoNeed]

edh said:

NoNeed said:

edh said:

If they weren't able to understand most if not all of the above in 2010, they were incompetent. You're right that they changed course in order to finally generate some growth after suppressing it for 3 years (remember the economy was growing when they took office). They don't want to admit that the growth is as a result of their loosening. Suits the electoral cycle though..

Ok I will offer you exactly the same terms that the coalition had when they took office.

The economy had grown by 1.7% of GDP but in order to achieve this we had to borrow 10% of GDP. Doesn't sound so good now does it because if you accept these term I will indeed give you £1.700 all you have to do is sign an agreement that you owe me £10,000.

Growth does not always mean good. It was absolute madness to borrow so much in return for so little it was not only unsustainable it would have lead to an economic disaster greater than the great depression.

So do you want my £1.700?

1.5% on first half of 2010 ..and we're now borrowing £90bn pa still. Anyway I thought we were all Keynesians these days...

Yes we are still borrowing too much, but it is Labour that is saying we have cut to far too fast and it was labour that left the deficit problem.


But it was Labours reckless economic mismanagement that mad the economic crash so devastating, despite 10 years of growth and selling off our gold, raiding our pensions and doubling taxation they were STILL BORROWING £20 - £30 billion every years in the 6 years prior to the banking crisis.


OH and if it's only £1500 you want Ill do you that for 9K ok, deal?