Coronavirus - the killer flu that will wipe us out? (Vol. 4)
Discussion
Newc said:
Thought I would christen the new thread with my regularly asked but never answered query.
If the CV worst case for UK is something like 250k deaths:
- are all of those extra to the 600k or so people who die each year in the UK, or is there a lot of crossover with people who are already ill (which is what the Italian figures suggest)
- how does a one-time blip of a maximum 40%-50% (if zero crossover) in annual deaths justify the cratering of the global economy, millions out of work, bankruptcies, suicides, and social upheaval which will take years to recover from
No one knows but the answer is probably yes there will be some cross over.If the CV worst case for UK is something like 250k deaths:
- are all of those extra to the 600k or so people who die each year in the UK, or is there a lot of crossover with people who are already ill (which is what the Italian figures suggest)
- how does a one-time blip of a maximum 40%-50% (if zero crossover) in annual deaths justify the cratering of the global economy, millions out of work, bankruptcies, suicides, and social upheaval which will take years to recover from
But from what we have seen in Italy a lot of people are going to die in a very short space of time and some of them will be before their time.
It looks like the govt have got a handle on it, but once the NHS becomes over whelmed is when normal fit and healthy people will die.
The other issue is it looks like CV19 can do long lasting damage to lungs.
In the UK 1500 or so people die each day. If we had a very bad outcome with CV19 it could be many times that per day at the very peak of the outbreak.
Hopefully that wont happen.
Puggit said:
DJMC said:
Let's get some perspective please on this teeny weeny problem called CV.
Here's some perspective: https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-they-call-i...https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-italian-arm...
DJMC said:
Another 460 deaths in the UK today... one every three minutes.
... from heart disease.
What is the government doing to isolate us from sweets, sticky buns, and Greggs?
And YES, you can catch heart disease from someone else: "Would you like one of my doughnuts?"
Did the markets fall and economy collapse due to the sticky bun? No.
Let's get some perspective please on this teeny weeny problem called CV.
From the guy who literally can't wait for his own father to die, and simply wants the stock market and his pension fund to recover.... from heart disease.
What is the government doing to isolate us from sweets, sticky buns, and Greggs?
And YES, you can catch heart disease from someone else: "Would you like one of my doughnuts?"
Did the markets fall and economy collapse due to the sticky bun? No.
Let's get some perspective please on this teeny weeny problem called CV.
Puggit said:
Here's some perspective: https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-they-call-i...
Someone posted Italian stats yesterday. Just 3 people with no pre-existing condition died. The others were probably teetering on the edge with their other health issues. They would have become heart or cancer or respiratory or simply old aged death stats sooner or later as is no doubt the case here in the UK.Had an interesting chat with a regional manager at work this morning. We operate a few trade counters and he had to cover for a branch manager yesterday who was off (not with CV).
He said he went home last night feeling utterly drained and depressed - due to every single customer talking about CV, re-iterating false information that they had read/heard on Facebook/Twitter etc.
"they're going to lockdown us all"
"they'll be rioting & looting and you'll have to fend for yourselves"
"it will be like this for years"
"they are going to run out of food"
What has happened to us? I know its scary but is this how we are going to behave each time something like this happens?
He said he went home last night feeling utterly drained and depressed - due to every single customer talking about CV, re-iterating false information that they had read/heard on Facebook/Twitter etc.
"they're going to lockdown us all"
"they'll be rioting & looting and you'll have to fend for yourselves"
"it will be like this for years"
"they are going to run out of food"
What has happened to us? I know its scary but is this how we are going to behave each time something like this happens?
Last few days have been notably quieter on the roads and in the car parks. Local cafe dead. (North West)
Phone call this morning from a pal in Borehamwood to tell me he’s confused because today it’s back to normal - everywhere busy.
I tell him I’m sure it’s not and drive to work. And it seems he’s right. Cafe here is flat out busy, car parks that were empty are full again and I’m stuck in traffic.
Any other observations similar or contrasting?
Phone call this morning from a pal in Borehamwood to tell me he’s confused because today it’s back to normal - everywhere busy.
I tell him I’m sure it’s not and drive to work. And it seems he’s right. Cafe here is flat out busy, car parks that were empty are full again and I’m stuck in traffic.
Any other observations similar or contrasting?
DJMC said:
Another 460 deaths in the UK today... one every three minutes.
... from heart disease.
What is the government doing to isolate us from sweets, sticky buns, and Greggs?
And YES, you can catch heart disease from someone else: "Would you like one of my doughnuts?"
Did the markets fall and economy collapse due to the sticky bun? No.
Let's get some perspective please on this teeny weeny problem called CV.
you total tool. you been on the bottle this morning already?... from heart disease.
What is the government doing to isolate us from sweets, sticky buns, and Greggs?
And YES, you can catch heart disease from someone else: "Would you like one of my doughnuts?"
Did the markets fall and economy collapse due to the sticky bun? No.
Let's get some perspective please on this teeny weeny problem called CV.
DJMC said:
Another 460 deaths in the UK today... one every three minutes.
... from heart disease.
What is the government doing to isolate us from sweets, sticky buns, and Greggs?
And YES, you can catch heart disease from someone else: "Would you like one of my doughnuts?"
Did the markets fall and economy collapse due to the sticky bun? No.
Let's get some perspective please on this teeny weeny problem called CV.
Deary me.... from heart disease.
What is the government doing to isolate us from sweets, sticky buns, and Greggs?
And YES, you can catch heart disease from someone else: "Would you like one of my doughnuts?"
Did the markets fall and economy collapse due to the sticky bun? No.
Let's get some perspective please on this teeny weeny problem called CV.
rich12 said:
ElectricSoup said:
At least. Italy's had 2 weeks, and the haven't started the down curve yet. Hopefully we'll see their situation improving in the next week. They did it too late, and we as a country did not learn form their mistake, an are sleep walking into a similar disaster.
So in economic terms, is one not better than the other? ie, total shut down of everything for say 4 weeks or carry on as we are and this has the potential to carry on for a more than a year?
Is it just not feasible to do the former?
I know it is being repeated all of the time but the idea is to keep the number of infected needing ICU/ventilators below the places available.
Newc said:
Thought I would christen the new thread with my regularly asked but never answered query.
If the CV worst case for UK is something like 250k deaths:
- are all of those extra to the 600k or so people who die each year in the UK, or is there a lot of crossover with people who are already ill (which is what the Italian figures suggest)
- how does a one-time blip of a maximum 40%-50% (if zero crossover) in annual deaths justify the cratering of the global economy, millions out of work, bankruptcies, suicides, and social upheaval which will take years to recover from
Logically there would have to be some crossover.If the CV worst case for UK is something like 250k deaths:
- are all of those extra to the 600k or so people who die each year in the UK, or is there a lot of crossover with people who are already ill (which is what the Italian figures suggest)
- how does a one-time blip of a maximum 40%-50% (if zero crossover) in annual deaths justify the cratering of the global economy, millions out of work, bankruptcies, suicides, and social upheaval which will take years to recover from
People dying at the moment have underlying health issues and the majority are old. Some would have died this year anyway.
rich12 said:
ElectricSoup said:
At least. Italy's had 2 weeks, and the haven't started the down curve yet. Hopefully we'll see their situation improving in the next week. They did it too late, and we as a country did not learn form their mistake, an are sleep walking into a similar disaster.
So in economic terms, is one not better than the other? ie, total shut down of everything for say 4 weeks or carry on as we are and this has the potential to carry on for a more than a year?
Is it just not feasible to do the former?
kurt535 said:
problem with this virus is it hits people differently, even of the same age, suggesting to me its unstable and mutating. ive personally witnessed one person i have no idea why we brought them to hospital whilst another, same age, normally fit and healthy as well was, indeed, at deaths door due to respiratory decline. uk being last to get it is scarier and could indeed mean higher death rate unless we finally get our act together and stop 'suggesting' but 'telling' people what to do, especially bosses like the muppet who owns wetherspoons!
It's mutating massively.I read something earlier this week that said there are 250 variations of the virus as it's mutated that much. I won't pretend I understood the whole article, but it certainly made the virus sound quite intelligent and a threat for a long time to come.
pghstochaj said:
Neither are going to stop the disease, just slow. A partial shutdown is supposed to slow it down (hopefully) in a gradual way. A full lock down would definitely stop it after a few weeks (it will have infected everybody it can at that point) but as soon as people go back outside again (or people travel to the UK), it will be back again. The lockdown method is used when it really gets out of control.
I know it is being repeated all of the time but the idea is to keep the number of infected needing ICU/ventilators below the places available.
Realistically then, there is nothing to do other than to wait until we either have a vaccine or everyones had it and hope it doesn't come back?I know it is being repeated all of the time but the idea is to keep the number of infected needing ICU/ventilators below the places available.
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