Irelands unemployment to hit 14.4% by 2010
Discussion
Newc said:
Not just Ireland. Bank of Spain forecasts nearly 20% unemployment there next year:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/843...
Independent economist says 20% minimum, and possibly up to 30%.
http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/economics-country-b...
The article about Spain is truly scary. It seems barmy that both Eire and Spain, who could be benefiting greatly from a weaker currency, are obstinately hanging onto Euro membership.http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/843...
Independent economist says 20% minimum, and possibly up to 30%.
http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/economics-country-b...
When I was out and about in London last month, it was packed with foreign tourists. Sterling’s decline (whilst personally damaging) is absolutely what the UK needs to begin rebalancing our trade deficit.
The economy over here is in the s
ts at the moment and there is very little confidence in the current Taoiseach (PM) which isn't helping much.
The problems here aren't the fault of the Taoiseach nor are they caused by the Euro.
The Euro is only a unit of currency and I still struggle to find the logic of some who think it is the cause of so much problems.
Anyhow, back to the original topic, there is a fair chance that the 14.4% could happen by 2010.
The economy here was being propped up for the last number of years by an unsustainable construction inductry that was building houses all over the place.
The majority of the labour on these sites was non-nationals.
Once the houses were built they were sold to people who rentd them out to more non-nationals who got work on building sites building houses which were sold to people who rented them out to more ................ etc etc.
The problems over here weren't caused by the non-nationals (they followed the money and were willing to do the jobs the locals thought they were above) or indeed by the builders (if people were willing to pay them stupid prices for too many houses then why wouldn't they build and sell them).
Irelands problems were largely caused by the banks.
They lent money to people who would have no realistic chance of ever being able to pay it back.
It turns out that a lot of the banks were over-lent and there was ahuge amount of corruption at high levels in some of them.
Now people are hanging on to whatever money they have and this means that businesses all over the place are letting peole go as a result of less money coming in.
All the money here hasn't all gone away, it just isn't being spent and the media are scaring the bejaysus out of people with tales of doom and gloom so they still won't spend.
Imagine a room with 20 kids in it playing musical chairs.
The music starts, they all get up and move around and a chair is taken away.
When they go to sit down 19 of them have chairs and one kid is left standing.
The media here have focused on the 1 left standing rather that the 19 with chairs.
This media frenzy about the 1 left standing means that the next time the music starts the 19 sitting are afraid to move off their chairs.
This is like the Irish economy right now.
It will eventually sort itself out but possibly only when the unemployement levels have first hit unheard of levels.
ts at the moment and there is very little confidence in the current Taoiseach (PM) which isn't helping much.The problems here aren't the fault of the Taoiseach nor are they caused by the Euro.
The Euro is only a unit of currency and I still struggle to find the logic of some who think it is the cause of so much problems.
Anyhow, back to the original topic, there is a fair chance that the 14.4% could happen by 2010.
The economy here was being propped up for the last number of years by an unsustainable construction inductry that was building houses all over the place.
The majority of the labour on these sites was non-nationals.
Once the houses were built they were sold to people who rentd them out to more non-nationals who got work on building sites building houses which were sold to people who rented them out to more ................ etc etc.
The problems over here weren't caused by the non-nationals (they followed the money and were willing to do the jobs the locals thought they were above) or indeed by the builders (if people were willing to pay them stupid prices for too many houses then why wouldn't they build and sell them).
Irelands problems were largely caused by the banks.
They lent money to people who would have no realistic chance of ever being able to pay it back.
It turns out that a lot of the banks were over-lent and there was ahuge amount of corruption at high levels in some of them.
Now people are hanging on to whatever money they have and this means that businesses all over the place are letting peole go as a result of less money coming in.
All the money here hasn't all gone away, it just isn't being spent and the media are scaring the bejaysus out of people with tales of doom and gloom so they still won't spend.
Imagine a room with 20 kids in it playing musical chairs.
The music starts, they all get up and move around and a chair is taken away.
When they go to sit down 19 of them have chairs and one kid is left standing.
The media here have focused on the 1 left standing rather that the 19 with chairs.
This media frenzy about the 1 left standing means that the next time the music starts the 19 sitting are afraid to move off their chairs.
This is like the Irish economy right now.
It will eventually sort itself out but possibly only when the unemployement levels have first hit unheard of levels.
Does anyone think the UK is in a better situation?
3 million unemployed in the Uk according to official figures, but we all know they are doctored. Where would the UK number be if you included the long term unemployed such as those who are not working because Labour made it an official illness to be a fat lazy bd?
3 million unemployed in the Uk according to official figures, but we all know they are doctored. Where would the UK number be if you included the long term unemployed such as those who are not working because Labour made it an official illness to be a fat lazy b
d?Skipppy said:
Does anyone think the UK is in a better situation?
3 million unemployed in the Uk according to official figures, but we all know they are doctored. Where would the UK number be if you included the long term unemployed such as those who are not working because Labour made it an official illness to be a fat lazy bd?
I quite agree. God alone knows how many have been signed off as long term sick, in order to put a shine on NULabours unemployment figures. 3 million unemployed in the Uk according to official figures, but we all know they are doctored. Where would the UK number be if you included the long term unemployed such as those who are not working because Labour made it an official illness to be a fat lazy b
d?haworthlloyd1 said:
the house price rises in dublin were wild! far too unsustainable
You'd be amazed at how many, right up until very recently, would have disagreed with you there.I used to do work in Ireland, and time was you'd have been lynched for saying that it wouldn't last forever and that any Irishman who was capable of getting a mortgage wasn't a financial genius.
They don't make any more land. Young, vibrant educated population. The world wants to do business here. Low interest rates for the long term to enable enterprise. Yada, Yada, Yada. I heard it all.
Dear God the reality has hit hard.
Bodo said:
ianash said:
The article about Spain is truly scary. It seems barmy that both Eire and Spain, who could be benefiting greatly from a weaker currency, are obstinately hanging onto Euro membership.
You think they should join the Sterling?Ireland said:
Imagine a room with 20 kids in it playing musical chairs.
The music starts, they all get up and move around and a chair is taken away.
When they go to sit down 19 of them have chairs and one kid is left standing.
The media here have focused on the 1 left standing rather that the 19 with chairs.
This media frenzy about the 1 left standing means that the next time the music starts the 19 sitting are afraid to move off their chairs.
Very well put, if only someone would explain it like that to An Taoiseach.The music starts, they all get up and move around and a chair is taken away.
When they go to sit down 19 of them have chairs and one kid is left standing.
The media here have focused on the 1 left standing rather that the 19 with chairs.
This media frenzy about the 1 left standing means that the next time the music starts the 19 sitting are afraid to move off their chairs.
Have to agree with you on the banks as well. I know so may people who borrowed a lot of money, yet they were the sort of people you wouldnt lend a €5 to.
Ireland said:
The problems here aren't the fault of the Taoiseach
Nope, you've lost me there. Bertie and Biffo were asleep at the wheel.w.r.t. the Euro, "cause" is somewhat irrelevant now but clearly the lack of ability to devalue the currency means we have to find other (potentially more damaging) ways to cut costs.
Edited by HundredthIdiot on Monday 6th April 13:55
ianash said:
Bodo said:
ianash said:
The article about Spain is truly scary. It seems barmy that both Eire and Spain, who could be benefiting greatly from a weaker currency, are obstinately hanging onto Euro membership.
You think they should join the Sterling?Fittster said:
ianash said:
Bodo said:
ianash said:
The article about Spain is truly scary. It seems barmy that both Eire and Spain, who could be benefiting greatly from a weaker currency, are obstinately hanging onto Euro membership.
You think they should join the Sterling?Edited by ianash on Monday 6th April 14:27
ianash said:
Fittster said:
ianash said:
Bodo said:
ianash said:
The article about Spain is truly scary. It seems barmy that both Eire and Spain, who could be benefiting greatly from a weaker currency, are obstinately hanging onto Euro membership.
You think they should join the Sterling?"These countries (Portual, Ireland, Italy and Greece) already have to pay more than Germany to borrow money. This reflects the fact that their economies are in such trouble that the market is concerned they may default or leave the eurozone. Ireland's story is typical (see below), and not so different to that of its CEE counterparts. The country enjoyed a property bubble, driven by unsuitably low Eurozone interest rates and hefty amounts of foreign investment. But wages have soared, labour costs become uncompetitive, and now that the bubble has burst, it faces a severe downturn – one serious forecast is for house prices to fall by 80%, for example.
Membership of the euro prevents such countries going down the traditional route of devaluing their currency to boost exports while inflating away debt. So they face a long, slow, painful process of reform and public spending cutbacks. That's tough at the best of times – and in the middle of a slump, it's political suicide. But the alternative, leaving the euro, is no easy option either. The European monetary affairs commissioner, Joaquin Almunia, this week insisted that nobody would be "crazy enough" to leave. Julian Pendock of Senhouse Capital agrees. Any country that left the euro would see whichever new currency it adopted slide against the single currency. That's a problem, because all of its debt would still be denominated in euros. As Pendock puts it, "gains in competitiveness would swiftly be offset by higher interest payments, negating any advantage".
In this case, a country would plunge deeper into a deflationary spiral (as the value of its debt soared). Alternatively it could effectively default on its debt, by passing a law converting outstanding euro debt into the new domestic currency. But as Pendock says, "the route of sovereign default is not one that has ended well for other countries. Argentina has never been able to re-emerge as anything other than a 'basket case' since its first modern default in the 1940s."
http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/can-the-euro-...
Good magazine, I'd recommend it.
Fittster, I don't particularly disagree with any of the article quoted. However, have you noticed any great rush by Ireland or Spain (also read UK), to take a knife to Public spending. Who will force them to make the necessary cuts? And how popular will that make them? The electorate will vote for whoever offers a solution to their day to day difficulties. I don't doubt the still wealthy in all these "problem" countries are relieved to be in the Euro. As times get tougher, probably much tougher, how will the majority feel about their falling living standards? The article mentioned Argentina as an example of a defaulting country which never quite recovered. What they didn't do was compare the living standards of Argentineans’ with other Latin American countries that didn't default. I don't think you would see any great disparity. Also when did you ever meet a politician who seemed able to see beyond the next one or two elections?
ianash said:
Fittster, I don't particularly disagree with any of the article quoted. However, have you noticed any great rush by Ireland or Spain (also read UK), to take a knife to Public spending. Who will force them to make the necessary cuts? And how popular will that make them? The electorate will vote for whoever offers a solution to their day to day difficulties. I don't doubt the still wealthy in all these "problem" countries are relieved to be in the Euro. As times get tougher, probably much tougher, how will the majority feel about their falling living standards? The article mentioned Argentina as an example of a defaulting country which never quite recovered. What they didn't do was compare the living standards of Argentineans’ with other Latin American countries that didn't default. I don't think you would see any great disparity. Also when did you ever meet a politician who seemed able to see beyond the next one or two elections?
It appears politician much perfer to raise taxes than to cut spending (can't have fluffy cute nurses and teachers on the dole, not like us scum bag private sector employees who deserve everything we get). There's an Irish budget tomorrow:"Ireland primed voters for years of higher taxes and curtailed public services as it seeks to chop between 3.5-4 billion euros ($4.7 billion to $5.4 billion) off the worst public finances in Europe this week.
But a source told Reuters late on Friday that Dublin would not swing the axe as much as previously expected and the bulk of the savings in Tuesday's budget would be derived from tax increases rather than the spending cuts favoured by the central bank and economists.
The source, who declined to be named because the budget is still under wraps, said the government would target 1.5 billion euros in spending reductions and between 2-2.5 billion euros from tax hikes, in particular an increase to existing income levies."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/844...
I'm struggling to find a south American country that hasn't defaulted to act as a comparison (Chile?).
Fittster, I would imagine Chile would have defaulted had Allende not been removed in a coup by Pinochet.
The problem with ramping up the taxes, UK Labour have done this in the past, is that your most capable human capital has it on it's toes to more welcoming shores. I imagine that Ireland’s skilled workers, particularly IT, will not have to big a problem relocating, if things become unpleasant in Eire.
Governments always seem to prefer to screw the private sector rather than bite the bullet and go for the public sector. Eventually their hand will be forced, by which time everybody will hate the Government - serves them right.
The problem with ramping up the taxes, UK Labour have done this in the past, is that your most capable human capital has it on it's toes to more welcoming shores. I imagine that Ireland’s skilled workers, particularly IT, will not have to big a problem relocating, if things become unpleasant in Eire.
Governments always seem to prefer to screw the private sector rather than bite the bullet and go for the public sector. Eventually their hand will be forced, by which time everybody will hate the Government - serves them right.
Ireland is to create a new state agency that will buy up billions of euros of bad loans from the country's troubled banking sector.
The creation of a new asset management agency will be a key part of today's emergency budget aimed at rescuing the republic's ailing economy.
Finance minister Brian Lenihan will unveil his budget this afternoon during which he will announce the creation of an agency that will take €56bn (£50.5bn) worth of badly hit property loans off the Irish banks' books.
The banks will be forced to sell the majority of the loans to the new agency at lower prices. In anticipation of the move to remove toxic loans, bank shares climbed overnight. Shares in Allied Irish Bank rose by almost 15% while Bank of Ireland shares shot up by 9%.
Ahead of Lenihan's speech to the Dáil (Irish parliament) Irish government sources said there would be a heavier emphasis on broadening the tax base than spending cuts.
Before a cabinet meeting this morning Lenihan said the Irish exchequer would take in an estimated €33bn in tax revenue this year, €1bn lower than figures published by his own department last week.
Tax rises will include doubling a 1% levy on all workers which was imposed last January. Those earning more than €100,000 and €250,000 will also pay more in the special levy.
Several hundred million euros will be slashed from the road budget for non-national, rural roads. However the €40m Dublin north metro plan, a major infrastructure project linking the Irish capital to the city's airport by rail, will still go ahead.
source
If I was Irish, working in the private sector and that turns out to be true I'd be packing my bags. Taxpayer gets hit for private banks problems and the public sector avoids the pain.
I watched part of Lenihan's speech on the BBC. Lots of fine words which are a politician’s stock in trade. Part of Ireland’s success was achieved by having a beneficial tax regime tied to low operating costs. Eastern Europe have stolen their clothes regarding costs and with taxes likely to just keep going up, Eire will eventually be forced as will the UK to take a knife to the public sector.
what have they got like a few million people and their builders built 600,000 apartments.....how could a government be stupid enough to think that the property market would just keep going up....all the job losses are from the housing sector probably because they run out of properties to build...
their not so dumb, they refused the lisbon [goodbye to democracy] treaty which our great leader signed us up for without even asking....our goverment actually might be more incompetant than irelands lol....
their not so dumb, they refused the lisbon [goodbye to democracy] treaty which our great leader signed us up for without even asking....our goverment actually might be more incompetant than irelands lol....
Mclovin said:
what have they got like a few million people and their builders built 600,000 apartments.....how could a government be stupid enough to think that the property market would just keep going up....all the job losses are from the housing sector probably because they run out of properties to build...
their not so dumb, they refused the lisbon [goodbye to democracy] treaty which our great leader signed us up for without even asking....our goverment actually might be more incompetant than irelands lol....
I wouldn't hold your breath on that one. Lenihan was on-message with Ireland showing Europe how much they wanted to be at it's centre. I just hope our Irish cousins have enough fight left in them, to kick this European nonsense into touch.their not so dumb, they refused the lisbon [goodbye to democracy] treaty which our great leader signed us up for without even asking....our goverment actually might be more incompetant than irelands lol....
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