Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 2]

[Globs]

Mermaid said:

DJRC said:

We're British. We havent respected the rest of the world for the last 1500 years, why should we start now?

Because we are no longer Great?

Greater than those shackled to the ESM/ESEF/ESM though.. at least we have prospects despite the best efforts of the EU and our traitorous politicians here.

[Steffan]

Gary11 said:

How does that work where Bankia are sinking yet less thean a year ago they were still buying other banks (ie purchased and swallowed Bancaja) now they are potless??

There are others on PH with far greater knowledge of banking than I. However from what I see this is the route such collapses follow. The bluff and bluster of the likes of the head of Bankia, who resigned days ago, keep the confidence pf the market up right until the collapse.

Not unlike the HBAT's position, in fact. Clearly the banking regulators in Spain could and should have seen thus coming. It really does beg the question as to what in reality the regulators are worth.

Not one Regulator in the entire World, predicted, anticipated or recognised the collapse of World Banking in 2008 until after the crash. I do question what purpose the regulators have in Banking, if that is the case and it most certainly is the case.

Same in Spain. Same everywhere else in the world as far as I can see.

It would seem that this is in reality, how Banks collapse in the 21st Century. Which they clearly are doing. In numbers. To my mind the Regulators are superfluous and an unnecessary drag on the economy. If they were effective they would see such problems building up.

They do not, repeatedly, therefore to my mind, they are institutionally, ineffective. A, waste of space, being the group collective term for a body of banking regulators.

[Andy Zarse]

DJRC said:

We're British. We havent respected the rest of the world for the last 1500 years, why should we start now?

People forget the main thing about being British is that you're not a foreigner, with all the terrible baggage that that entails.

[speedy_thrills]

coanda said:

I saw the program. I just couldn't understand how the germans thought it would be great if we joined.

It would be great for Germany if the UK joined. They'd love to play the game of borrow our money, buy our stuff, worry about sovereignty tomorrow with the UK on a level that wouldn't happen without the Euro to facilitate. The Germans are playing the long game here, the Euro offers them an advantage by keeping wages manageable despite being a prospering exporter.

One countries Euro disadvantages are advantages to another country and that's always been true. To countries that produce and export heavily the Euro is a brilliant mechanism to facilitate that, so good in fact that it's bankrupting countries that weren't in the same position. If anything the Euro worked much too well at facilitating trade. The UK is many years away from being a major exporter however so it's doubtful it would be advantageous for the UK to join any time in the near future.

That said I wouldn't completely rule it out if the UK implemented the changes it needed to be more aggressive in exporting.

[DJRC]

Andy Zarse said:

DJRC said:

We're British. We havent respected the rest of the world for the last 1500 years, why should we start now?

People forget the main thing about being British is that you're not a foreigner, with all the terrible baggage that that entails.

What about the Welsh?

[Andy Zarse]

Steffan said:

Clearly the banking regulators in Spain could and should have seen thus coming. It really does beg the question as to what in reality the regulators are worth.

Not one Regulator in the entire World, predicted, anticipated or recognised the collapse of World Banking in 2008 until after the crash. I do question what purpose the regulators have in Banking, if that is the case and it most certainly is the case.

Same in Spain. Same everywhere else in the world as far as I can see.

It would seem that this is in reality, how Banks collapse in the 21st Century. Which they clearly are doing. In numbers. To my mind the Regulators are superfluous and an unnecessary drag on the economy. If they were effective they would see such problems building up.

They do not, repeatedly, therefore to my mind, they are institutionally, ineffective. A, waste of space, being the group collective term for a body of banking regulators.

Look at our own FSA, seen in the world of financial regulation as a "regulator's regulator". The truth is that they've been utter incompetent for over twenty years.

Take for example the latest miselling scandal, Payment Protection Insurance. It wasn't that PPI was a bad thing in itself, surely everyone agrees it is a good idea to try and insure against unempoyment and sickness etc. It protects people's homes, assets and credit ratings in the event of the unexpected. It also protects the banks from loans going sour and reduces toxic assets on their balance sheets.

So why did it go so wrong? In a sentence, because it was sold under false pretences at utter rip off prices to customers who did not have it explained to them and nor did the sellers didn't check to ensure it was appropriate to the customers circumstances.

Now the FSA knew this was going on. THey had all the management information they could possibly need, available on the banks and insurers quarterly submitted and annual returns which give a full breakdown of products sold etc. They also conducted umpteen compliance inspections on the lender's sales forces and selling practices. And yet, they did sweet fk all about it until WHICH and a few other consumer's action groups started to get some publicity and the ensuing court cases. Then all of a sudden it's time to play the consumer's friend and come down hard on the wicked banks. It should and could have been nipped in the bud. But they sat on their hands instead and let it happen whilst the banks paid billions in taxes to Winky. If only I could find a political link to the Brown Govt I'd be very happy...

IMO these incompetent regulators want sacking, stripping of their index linked pensions, and suing for incompetence. Additionally, there's one head regulator who's name shall not be mentioned but to my mind he should be locked a burning plastic portaloo and have it tipped over on its door. We would watch delightedly as he flailed around trapped in a tomb of molten burning PVC, a charred hand eventually managing to burrow its way through the malleable dripping plastic clutching desperately at the fresh air in vain as the toxic smoke corrupts his lungs and his dying screams subside to nothing. Then we would piss on him.

Edited by Andy Zarse on Friday 11th May 11:04

[Andy Zarse]

DJRC said:

Andy Zarse said:

DJRC said:

We're British. We havent respected the rest of the world for the last 1500 years, why should we start now?

People forget the main thing about being British is that you're not a foreigner, with all the terrible baggage that that entails.

What about the Welsh?

The Welsh aren't "people" in the strict definition of the word.

[Gary11]

AZ
Could I steal this I have a use for it....

"there's one head regulator who's name shall not be mentioned but to my mind he should be locked a burning plastic portaloo and have it tipped over on its door. We would watch delightedly as he flailed around trapped in a tomb of molten burning PVC, a charred hand eventually managing to burrow its way through the malleable dripping plastic clutching desperately at the fresh air in vain as the toxic smoke corrupts his lungs and his dying screams subside to nothing. Then we would piss on him."

[Andy Zarse]

Gary11 said:

AZ
Could I steal this I have a use for it....

"there's one head regulator who's name shall not be mentioned but to my mind he should be locked a burning plastic portaloo and have it tipped over on its door. We would watch delightedly as he flailed around trapped in a tomb of molten burning PVC, a charred hand eventually managing to burrow its way through the malleable dripping plastic clutching desperately at the fresh air in vain as the toxic smoke corrupts his lungs and his dying screams subside to nothing. Then we would piss on him."

Absolutely old boy, steal away! You might wish to add something about being scalded by superheated fumes of Elsan Blue too.

Actually, I bet there's a few regulators who'd like to do this today to Jamie Dimon at JP Morgan!

Edited by Andy Zarse on Friday 11th May 11:52

[hornetrider]

rogerthefish said:

Oh no now the Spanish banks need a 100bn...end game in sight and it's not going to be pleasant or orderly.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis...

Oh dear. Love the facepalm in the link

[Gary11]

China not buying any more Euro (debt) bonds.

[Crafty_]

"Its too late for Germany to save the Euro" says Jeremy Warner

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/g...

[bosscerbera]

Crafty_ said:

"Its too late for Germany to save the Euro" says Jeremy Warner

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/g...

Jeremy Warner said:

Rightly, [Alexis Tsipras] has rejected Berlin’s austerity programme as “barbaric” and counter-productive (though, incongruously, he rides to parliament on a German-made BMW)...

As opposed to a Greek-made .... what?

[Mermaid]

bosscerbera said:

As opposed to a Greek-made .... what?

[HundredthIdiot]

Gary11 said:

China not buying any more Euro (debt) bonds.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gJJitTptjm8qWgwzd3TgSBMBl1Uw?docId=CNG.c7f492ab3d87e994d31462a939c016ee.4c1

"The country recorded a better-than-expected surplus of $18.42 billion in April"

Better?

[bosscerbera]

Mermaid said:

bosscerbera said:

As opposed to a Greek-made .... what?

Surely the Trojan Horse is a metaphor for the Euro?

[Mermaid]

bosscerbera said:

Surely the Trojan Horse is a metaphor for the Euro?

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/helmut-...
Helmut Kohl ignored signs that Italy was unfit to join eurozone
From: The Times May 11, 2012 12:00AM
I

GERMAN officials gave numerous warnings that Italy was not ready to join the euro but were ignored because Helmut Kohl, the German chancellor, believed the single currency was Europe's destiny, secret papers released under freedom of information laws revealed yesterday.

Italy posed "a special risk" to the euro from its start in 1999 because it continually refused to reduce its huge debts, Mr Kohl's top official told him in a prophetic memo nine months before the launch.

Rome also used accounting tricks, including a ruse to sell gold reserves from one branch of government to another to generate a "Europe tax", showing on paper that it was making progress when in fact debts were rising, German officials warned their leader.

Mr Kohl brushed aside the alerts and insisted that Rome should join the first wave of the euro, saying he felt "the weight of history" on his shoulders, German government papers obtained by Der Spiegel magazine showed.


"The documents prove what was only assumed until now - Italy should never have been accepted into the common currency zone," Der Spiegel wrote. "The decision to invite Rome to join was based almost exclusively on political considerations at the expense of economic criteria. It also created a precedent for a much bigger mistake two years later, namely Greece's acceptance into the eurozone."

Early in 1997, German finance officials told Mr Kohl that in Rome, "important structural cost-saving measures were almost completely omitted, out of consideration for the social consensus". Mr Kohl's chief negotiator on the euro, Horst Kohler, sent him a study in March 1998 that concluded Italy had not fulfilled the conditions "for permanent and sustainable deficit and debt reduction".

Mr Kohl replied that he was confident all the governments would make the necessary structural reforms "in the coming years".

Joachim Bitterlich, Mr Kohl's former foreign policy adviser, said yesterday: "Not without the Italians, please. That was the political motto."

In a memo from January 1998, Mr Bitterlich said Italy's deficit reduction was based mainly on the dubious Europe tax and on unusually low market interest rates.

A few weeks later, Dutch officials told Mr Kohl: "Without additional measures on the part of Italy to provide credible proof of the longevity of the consolidation, Italy's acceptance into the eurozone is currently unacceptable."

Mr Kohl told them the French government had warned him that it would withdraw if Italy were excluded.

[DJRC]

Mein gott, but somebody in the media has actually got it right for once!

"Throughout the crisis, Germany has in truth been more accommodating than it seems in trying to hold together this French-inspired, economic folie de grandeur. It’s agreed to prop the region up with bail-outs, and it has put hundreds of billions of its own surplus savings on the line by providing the periphery banking system with the liquidity it requires to stay afloat."

[Driller]

DJRC said:

We're British. We havent respected the rest of the world for the last 1500 years, why should we start now?

You're explanation appears to be "once a nation of arrogant tossers, always a nation of arrogant tossers"

[Globs]

DJRC said:

and it has put hundreds of billions of its own surplus savings on the line by providing the periphery banking system with the liquidity it requires to stay afloat."

Makes you wonder how much say the ordinary german had about that!