North Korea - how serious should we take them?

[ChemicalChaos]

AJL308 said:

Cobnapint said:

Contradiction alert.

Don't underestimate him. He has an enormous standing army, all programmed to fight to the death for their dear leader. stloads of tanks, Chinese and Russian missiles, acres of artillery batteries, submarines etc etc. OK, he wouldn't 'win' a fight against the US but he could make one hell of a mess of South Korea if he wanted to.

Are they though? It's all very well to say that but human beings aren't that easy to pre-program as suicidal killing machines, as more than a few dictators have found out. It's not easy to keep a huge mass of people loyal to your cause when their families are starving and living in st conditions. The populous of NK are probably not actually brainwashed into believing the st pumped out by the regime but, rather, are more likely too terrified to say anything other than what they are told.

When you actually look at the people on these huge parade days, or look at their apparently tearful reactions when the latest 'dear leader' dies, it's pretty obvious that they aren't actually desperately upset (or happy, as the case may be) but are simply delivering what is expected of them in order to not get hauled off to the camps or executed. When fat-boy's dad died all those crying people obviously weren't crying through devotion to their lost leader, they were crying because it was what was expected of them.

Interestingly, I had a similar discussion with a friend of mine, who is a tour operator and recently went to NK.
How, I asked, does the regime deal with people like olympic athletes who travel to the free world and must know that a) NK is st, and b)all the claims about winning everything in the olympics each time are obviously bks.
Similarly, what about airline staff etc?

He replied that the main tactic used against these people is threats against the family. Speak out and not only will you swiftly disappear, but so will your parents, brothers and sisters etc. People may put spreading the truth above their own well-being, but human nature means they will not live with the sacrifice of the rest of their family.

[200bhp]

Its all good and well to assume the US would "win" a war but it's hard to imagine anything other than massive casualties in Seoul as a result of any initial ground attack with conventional weapons. Surely the north could send hundreds of thousands of troops into the DMZ and overwhelm any defenses pretty quickly?

[anonymous-user]

200bhp said:

Its all good and well to assume the US would "win" a war but it's hard to imagine anything other than massive casualties in Seoul as a result of any initial ground attack with conventional weapons. Surely the north could send hundreds of thousands of troops into the DMZ and overwhelm any defenses pretty quickly?

they have had 50 years to prepare for something like this though.

[RBH58]

200bhp said:

Its all good and well to assume the US would "win" a war but it's hard to imagine anything other than massive casualties in Seoul as a result of any initial ground attack with conventional weapons. Surely the north could send hundreds of thousands of troops into the DMZ and overwhelm any defenses pretty quickly?

This is probably the primary reason why the US haven't started shooting already. This is surely not lost of them.

[5ohmustang]

jsf said:

What's the point in all that camouflage, to then stick a bloody bright target (USA flag) on your kill zone.

The regular flag is not used in a combat zone or tactical training. A subdued flag or an ir flag is used.

2 more carrier groups likely to be heading out there.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-17/us-deploy...

[tuffer]

Interesting read: http://edition.cnn.com/2017/04/16/opinions/north-k...

[200bhp]

I had a Google but couldn't find the answer to this one - How many ICBM test flights have the US and Russia carried out in order the validate their design? As an engineer I can say that no matter how good your theory is, you never really know if anything will work until you build and test it - North Korea are surely some way off actually having a reliable ICBM or long range system of any kind?

Or will they just fire and cross their fingers? Seems unlikely given the risks involved.

[p1stonhead]

RBH58 said:

200bhp said:

Its all good and well to assume the US would "win" a war but it's hard to imagine anything other than massive casualties in Seoul as a result of any initial ground attack with conventional weapons. Surely the north could send hundreds of thousands of troops into the DMZ and overwhelm any defenses pretty quickly?

This is probably the primary reason why the US haven't started shooting already. This is surely not lost of them.

Genuine question because I have no idea.... how simple would it be for the US to just fire say 1000 missiles at all NK artillery on the border to disable it before NK have a scooby what the hell just happened? If NK really are in the military dark ages, they would be pretty much scuppered after this no?

Surely the US must know where most if not all of the bits and pieces are considering how much importance it is in case of it ever coming to a proper war?

[tuffer]

200bhp said:

I had a Google but couldn't find the answer to this one - How many ICBM test flights have the US and Russia carried out in order the validate their design? As an engineer I can say that no matter how good your theory is, you never really know if anything will work until you build and test it - North Korea are surely some way off actually having a reliable ICBM or long range system of any kind?

Or will they just fire and cross their fingers? Seems unlikely given the risks involved.

If it gets to the point where they are willing to fire one in anger I doubt if they really care where it lands as it will still have the desired effect.

[Evangelion]

Yes, Fat Boy seems to me the very person who would let something off without caring a jot where it goes. A dangerous loony who should really have been rubbed out long before now.

[TTmonkey]

Makes you wonder how many of these are deployed on the DMZ now...?

And in what mode they can be set to use....

[Mansells Tash]

p1stonhead said:

Genuine question because I have no idea.... how simple would it be for the US to just fire say 1000 missiles at all NK artillery on the border to disable it before NK have a scooby what the hell just happened? If NK really are in the military dark ages, they would be pretty much scuppered after this no?

Surely the US must know where most if not all of the bits and pieces are considering how much importance it is in case of it ever coming to a proper war?

From what I've been able to pick up from various news sources and reports the issue is with the Rocket Artillery they have on mobile platforms (the regular Artillery doesn't have the range to reach Seoul). Given they're mobile and can be moved/hidden relatively easily it would be neigh on impossible to destroy every one before it can be used.

The US and South would have to have a massive first strike then run rolling patrols to attack any kit that survives. I can't imagine even a couple of platforms surviving and making successful launches on Seoul would be acceptable to the USA / S.Korea so they're pretty much in a stale mate situation.

If Trump goes for their nuclear facilities I think the only non-suicidal response that NK have is to protect their own border and hunker down, maybe have his subs attack out at sea but if he so much as fires a party popper at Seoul or any other population center it will pretty quickly lead to a full strength military response from the South and the USA.

[Efbe]

tuffer said:

200bhp said:

I had a Google but couldn't find the answer to this one - How many ICBM test flights have the US and Russia carried out in order the validate their design? As an engineer I can say that no matter how good your theory is, you never really know if anything will work until you build and test it - North Korea are surely some way off actually having a reliable ICBM or long range system of any kind?

Or will they just fire and cross their fingers? Seems unlikely given the risks involved.

If it gets to the point where they are willing to fire one in anger I doubt if they really care where it lands as it will still have the desired effect.

it depends on where they have sourced the missiles from. if built/designed themselves that they would need 1000s of test flights. but if they have bought them from russia/china, then the only testing will be on their integrating into their systems/ making sure they read the instructions properly?

[MartG]

200bhp said:

I had a Google but couldn't find the answer to this one - How many ICBM test flights have the US and Russia carried out in order the validate their design?

The US carries out regular live fire tests of its missiles - e.g. http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2017/02/20/511352/US-... and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LGM-30_Minuteman#Tes...

[RBH58]

Mansells Tash said:

From what I've been able to pick up from various news sources and reports the issue is with the Rocket Artillery they have on mobile platforms (the regular Artillery doesn't have the range to reach Seoul). Given they're mobile and can be moved/hidden relatively easily it would be neigh on impossible to destroy every one before it can be used.

The US and South would have to have a massive first strike then run rolling patrols to attack any kit that survives. I can't imagine even a couple of platforms surviving and making successful launches on Seoul would be acceptable to the USA / S.Korea so they're pretty much in a stale mate situation.

If Trump goes for their nuclear facilities I think the only non-suicidal response that NK have is to protect their own border and hunker down, maybe have his subs attack out at sea but if he so much as fires a party popper at Seoul or any other population center it will pretty quickly lead to a full strength military response from the South and the USA.

Sure....they'll flatten Pyongyang in retaliation....but I'm not sure that'd stop Fat Boy from crossing the DMZ and/or launching conventional artillery and some nasty dirty weapons on Seoul.

[Efbe]

RBH58 said:

Mansells Tash said:

From what I've been able to pick up from various news sources and reports the issue is with the Rocket Artillery they have on mobile platforms (the regular Artillery doesn't have the range to reach Seoul). Given they're mobile and can be moved/hidden relatively easily it would be neigh on impossible to destroy every one before it can be used.

The US and South would have to have a massive first strike then run rolling patrols to attack any kit that survives. I can't imagine even a couple of platforms surviving and making successful launches on Seoul would be acceptable to the USA / S.Korea so they're pretty much in a stale mate situation.

If Trump goes for their nuclear facilities I think the only non-suicidal response that NK have is to protect their own border and hunker down, maybe have his subs attack out at sea but if he so much as fires a party popper at Seoul or any other population center it will pretty quickly lead to a full strength military response from the South and the USA.

Sure....they'll flatten Pyongyang in retaliation....but I'm not sure that'd stop Fat Boy from crossing the DMZ and/or launching conventional artillery and some nasty dirty weapons on Seoul.

or ordering hundreds of thousands of civilians to walk across the DMZ. how do you deal with that?

[FourWheelDrift]

Efbe said:

or ordering hundreds of thousands of civilians to walk across the DMZ. how do you deal with that?

Give them free food and guns and tell them to shoot back at fatty,

[scherzkeks]

loafer123 said:

I am sure that Trump will have agreed for it to be a Chinese protectorate if Pie Boy is deposed in order to get President Xi on side.

There is already talk of this, if Kim gives up his nukes.

Of course the Chinese are the next boogeyman, so it will only make matters worse for everyone down the road.

[stourjohn]

Their leader is an insignificant little man leading an insignificant little country who only wants recognition. Why, therefore don't we just stop reporting anything and halt his publicity.

[FourWheelDrift]

No publicity out, but throw as much information for having a better life outside the oppressive North Korean regime in as possible. USB sticks are regularly dropped over the border by balloons this could be increased.