North Korea - how serious should we take them?

[loafer123]

tuffer said:

They were in Singapore, they were due to head to Australia and had set off in that direction before doing an about turn.

article said:

The US military's Pacific Command said on Tuesday that it had cancelled a port visit to Perth, but had completed previously scheduled training with Australia off its northwest coast after departing Singapore on 8 April.

[tuffer]

loafer123 said:

tuffer said:

They were in Singapore, they were due to head to Australia and had set off in that direction before doing an about turn.

article said:

The US military's Pacific Command said on Tuesday that it had cancelled a port visit to Perth, but had completed previously scheduled training with Australia off its northwest coast after departing Singapore on 8 April.

The Sunda Straight is a pretty long way from Australia.

[loafer123]

tuffer said:

loafer123 said:

tuffer said:

They were in Singapore, they were due to head to Australia and had set off in that direction before doing an about turn.

article said:

The US military's Pacific Command said on Tuesday that it had cancelled a port visit to Perth, but had completed previously scheduled training with Australia off its northwest coast after departing Singapore on 8 April.

The Sunda Straight is a pretty long way from Australia.

Yes, it is.

They left Singapore on the 8th, went to off the coast of NW Australia for exercises and are now on their way north through the Sunda Straight.

[AJL308]

ChemicalChaos said:

AJL308 said:

Cobnapint said:

Contradiction alert.

Don't underestimate him. He has an enormous standing army, all programmed to fight to the death for their dear leader. stloads of tanks, Chinese and Russian missiles, acres of artillery batteries, submarines etc etc. OK, he wouldn't 'win' a fight against the US but he could make one hell of a mess of South Korea if he wanted to.

Are they though? It's all very well to say that but human beings aren't that easy to pre-program as suicidal killing machines, as more than a few dictators have found out. It's not easy to keep a huge mass of people loyal to your cause when their families are starving and living in st conditions. The populous of NK are probably not actually brainwashed into believing the st pumped out by the regime but, rather, are more likely too terrified to say anything other than what they are told.

When you actually look at the people on these huge parade days, or look at their apparently tearful reactions when the latest 'dear leader' dies, it's pretty obvious that they aren't actually desperately upset (or happy, as the case may be) but are simply delivering what is expected of them in order to not get hauled off to the camps or executed. When fat-boy's dad died all those crying people obviously weren't crying through devotion to their lost leader, they were crying because it was what was expected of them.

Interestingly, I had a similar discussion with a friend of mine, who is a tour operator and recently went to NK.
How, I asked, does the regime deal with people like olympic athletes who travel to the free world and must know that a) NK is st, and b)all the claims about winning everything in the olympics each time are obviously bks.
Similarly, what about airline staff etc?

He replied that the main tactic used against these people is threats against the family. Speak out and not only will you swiftly disappear, but so will your parents, brothers and sisters etc. People may put spreading the truth above their own well-being, but human nature means they will not live with the sacrifice of the rest of their family.

I've just read something today, actually, related to this. Think it was on the Telegraph website. Apparently, for some transgressions, they impose what is referred to as a "Three Generation" punishment. You get hauled off to the camps and the next three generations below you get to go along and live the rest of their lives there.

How true that actually is is anyone's guess but there will likely be a grain of truth in there somewhere.

[p1stonhead]

AJL308 said:

ChemicalChaos said:

AJL308 said:

Cobnapint said:

Contradiction alert.

Don't underestimate him. He has an enormous standing army, all programmed to fight to the death for their dear leader. stloads of tanks, Chinese and Russian missiles, acres of artillery batteries, submarines etc etc. OK, he wouldn't 'win' a fight against the US but he could make one hell of a mess of South Korea if he wanted to.

Are they though? It's all very well to say that but human beings aren't that easy to pre-program as suicidal killing machines, as more than a few dictators have found out. It's not easy to keep a huge mass of people loyal to your cause when their families are starving and living in st conditions. The populous of NK are probably not actually brainwashed into believing the st pumped out by the regime but, rather, are more likely too terrified to say anything other than what they are told.

When you actually look at the people on these huge parade days, or look at their apparently tearful reactions when the latest 'dear leader' dies, it's pretty obvious that they aren't actually desperately upset (or happy, as the case may be) but are simply delivering what is expected of them in order to not get hauled off to the camps or executed. When fat-boy's dad died all those crying people obviously weren't crying through devotion to their lost leader, they were crying because it was what was expected of them.

Interestingly, I had a similar discussion with a friend of mine, who is a tour operator and recently went to NK.
How, I asked, does the regime deal with people like olympic athletes who travel to the free world and must know that a) NK is st, and b)all the claims about winning everything in the olympics each time are obviously bks.
Similarly, what about airline staff etc?

He replied that the main tactic used against these people is threats against the family. Speak out and not only will you swiftly disappear, but so will your parents, brothers and sisters etc. People may put spreading the truth above their own well-being, but human nature means they will not live with the sacrifice of the rest of their family.

I've just read something today, actually, related to this. Think it was on the Telegraph website. Apparently, for some transgressions, they impose what is referred to as a "Three Generation" punishment. You get hauled off to the camps and the next three generations below you get to go along and live the rest of their lives there.

How true that actually is is anyone's guess but there will likely be a grain of truth in there somewhere.

The huge benefit of fatty being taken down is that those poor fkers in all of the labour/death camps will get out. It's awful that the world sits by and does nothing.

No easy solution to it though other than complete taking of the country.

[AJL308]

RBH58 said:

Mansells Tash said:

From what I've been able to pick up from various news sources and reports the issue is with the Rocket Artillery they have on mobile platforms (the regular Artillery doesn't have the range to reach Seoul). Given they're mobile and can be moved/hidden relatively easily it would be neigh on impossible to destroy every one before it can be used.

The US and South would have to have a massive first strike then run rolling patrols to attack any kit that survives. I can't imagine even a couple of platforms surviving and making successful launches on Seoul would be acceptable to the USA / S.Korea so they're pretty much in a stale mate situation.

If Trump goes for their nuclear facilities I think the only non-suicidal response that NK have is to protect their own border and hunker down, maybe have his subs attack out at sea but if he so much as fires a party popper at Seoul or any other population center it will pretty quickly lead to a full strength military response from the South and the USA.

Sure....they'll flatten Pyongyang in retaliation....but I'm not sure that'd stop Fat Boy from crossing the DMZ and/or launching conventional artillery and some nasty dirty weapons on Seoul.

Again, though, this is all based upon him actually being able to command loyalty from lots and lots of soldiers who actually want their country to remain as it is. This doesn't even touch on the obviously terrified old men who run the military.

These are big presumptions which I think are likely to be utterly false.

As to his actual military capability - Fatty's minions can't even manage to successfully Photoshop a few pictures most of the time, why is there any reason to suspect that any military capability he has works as it's supposed to? Something I read today mentioned that in the whole country there are around 1,500 IP addresses. The Pentagon probably has that in the flat bit that runs along the bottom.

[Efbe]

skyrover said:

The Chinese have been pushing the North Koreans to reform for years, they simply do not want to.

They recently emphasised that point by executing China's favourite NK diplomat

You are living in fantasy land

not doing it the right way though.

You need to get cheap tech into the country. lots of it. really cheap discounted stuff.
flood the people with ways of communicating and learning. They will still have the same opinions as the south, and want re-unification. Give them a chance to see what SK has become, the global brands of their vehicles and technology.

before you give the country knowledge, removing Tubs will create a world of pain. Once the people expand their horizon they will stand a chance when he is removed. Remove him now, and you will have ten more like him ready to take over, and a country to back them up who probably do truly love him.

[rxtx]

They already know what the rest of the world is like through smuggled media and mobile phones.

[Efbe]

rxtx said:

They already know what the rest of the world is like through smuggled media and mobile phones.

no, a tiny subsection of the rich of pyongyang does.

[skyrover]

They have been flying stuff over the border for years.

They have already threatened all out war on the South for flying USB sticks over FFS

Unfortunately it's simply not possible to give everyone in NK a mobile phone with internet access... and your sure as hell not going to get any assistance from Pyongyang

Educate yourself a bit about the place

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PdxPCeWw75k

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6weGCM3sWKc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24R8JObNNQ4

Edited by skyrover on Thursday 20th April 08:36

[Efbe]

skyrover said:

They have been flying stuff over the border for years.

They have already threatened all out war on the South for flying USB sticks over FFS

Unfortunately it's simply not possible to give everyone in NK a mobile phone with internet access... and your sure as hell not going to get any assistance from Pyongyang

Educate yourself a bit about the place

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PdxPCeWw75k

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6weGCM3sWKc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24R8JObNNQ4

Edited by skyrover on Thursday 20th April 08:36

I've been there.
I also lived in SK for a year. and spent time in other parts of the region. I speak both Chinese and Korean.

Attempting to get stuff across the south border is daft and pointless.
Plenty of trade goes over the chinese border, across the bridge. Wiki says 3bn each way in 2013

Even if it wasn't/isn't actually going there, Trump telling NK that a battlegroup is going there is not telling the people, it is just telling the leadership. Threats to him just legitimise the Kim's leadership. He rules by fear, but it's not just a fear of him, its a fear of war. The whole country is ready for war at any second. They have been brought up anticipating a war with the west. They are completely fking nuts about it.

He will have no issue (and I think this is quite widely expected) in nuking his own country to halt an invasion of it. Nukes pointed at his own ports and the DMZ. He won't just retaliate against SK, but also his own country.

Military threats and sanctions is not and has not worked. Half a century of this has got us here and it is not bloody well working. 10% of the population died. We did nothing, they did nothing. At what point do you think these threats will work?

Edited by Efbe on Thursday 20th April 09:22

[durbster]

p1stonhead said:

No easy solution to it though other than complete taking of the country.

Why do people still think this is feasible, or even a good idea?

This is exactly the kind of language that got us into the Iraq catastrophe.

[Zod]

p1stonhead said:

AJL308 said:

ChemicalChaos said:

AJL308 said:

Cobnapint said:

Contradiction alert.

Don't underestimate him. He has an enormous standing army, all programmed to fight to the death for their dear leader. stloads of tanks, Chinese and Russian missiles, acres of artillery batteries, submarines etc etc. OK, he wouldn't 'win' a fight against the US but he could make one hell of a mess of South Korea if he wanted to.

Are they though? It's all very well to say that but human beings aren't that easy to pre-program as suicidal killing machines, as more than a few dictators have found out. It's not easy to keep a huge mass of people loyal to your cause when their families are starving and living in st conditions. The populous of NK are probably not actually brainwashed into believing the st pumped out by the regime but, rather, are more likely too terrified to say anything other than what they are told.

When you actually look at the people on these huge parade days, or look at their apparently tearful reactions when the latest 'dear leader' dies, it's pretty obvious that they aren't actually desperately upset (or happy, as the case may be) but are simply delivering what is expected of them in order to not get hauled off to the camps or executed. When fat-boy's dad died all those crying people obviously weren't crying through devotion to their lost leader, they were crying because it was what was expected of them.

Interestingly, I had a similar discussion with a friend of mine, who is a tour operator and recently went to NK.
How, I asked, does the regime deal with people like olympic athletes who travel to the free world and must know that a) NK is st, and b)all the claims about winning everything in the olympics each time are obviously bks.
Similarly, what about airline staff etc?

He replied that the main tactic used against these people is threats against the family. Speak out and not only will you swiftly disappear, but so will your parents, brothers and sisters etc. People may put spreading the truth above their own well-being, but human nature means they will not live with the sacrifice of the rest of their family.

I've just read something today, actually, related to this. Think it was on the Telegraph website. Apparently, for some transgressions, they impose what is referred to as a "Three Generation" punishment. You get hauled off to the camps and the next three generations below you get to go along and live the rest of their lives there.

How true that actually is is anyone's guess but there will likely be a grain of truth in there somewhere.

The huge benefit of fatty being taken down is that those poor fkers in all of the labour/death camps will get out. It's awful that the world sits by and does nothing.

No easy solution to it though other than complete taking of the country.

but, as scherzkeks would tell you, you can't prove that the camps exist, so nobody has any right to criticise North Korea for its human rights record.

I've seen the film and the photos; it's clear everyone in North Korea is very happy all the time. Just look at the ecstatic smiles. You don't see that kind of happiness in the neocon-dominated West.

[scherzkeks]

durbster said:

p1stonhead said:

No easy solution to it though other than complete taking of the country.

Why do people still think this is feasible, or even a good idea?

This is exactly the kind of language that got us into the Iraq catastrophe.

Because they are knee-deep in propaganda.

[skyrover]

Efbe said:

I've been there.
I also lived in SK for a year. and spent time in other parts of the region. I speak both Chinese and Korean.

Attempting to get stuff across the south border is daft and pointless.
Plenty of trade goes over the chinese border, across the bridge. Wiki says 3bn each way in 2013

Than your posts are baffling... you should be well aware of the reasons why simply "sending as much modern tech over the border as possible" simply wont work. Wishful thinking really, probably due to your emotional ties to the region.

Efbe said:

Even if it wasn't/isn't actually going there, Trump telling NK that a battlegroup is going there is not telling the people, it is just telling the leadership. Threats to him just legitimise the Kim's leadership. He rules by fear, but it's not just a fear of him, its a fear of war. The whole country is ready for war at any second. They have been brought up anticipating a war with the west. They are completely fking nuts about it.

He will have no issue (and I think this is quite widely expected) in nuking his own country to halt an invasion of it. Nukes pointed at his own ports and the DMZ. He won't just retaliate against SK, but also his own country.

And as time passes, he he will become more bold and ruthless, the stronger the means to back up his threats.

Efbe said:

Military threats and sanctions is not and has not worked. Half a century of this has got us here and it is not bloody well working. 10% of the population died. We did nothing, they did nothing. At what point do you think these threats will work?

Threats no longer work because he knows fine well nobody will lift a finger. Fear works abroad as well as home, until finally someone call's his bluff.

It's much safer to do this sooner rather than later when he actually has teeth.

[AstonZagato]

There is no solution. Just stalemate.

China does not want the US in NK. They don't want 25mio starving people released from enslavement and thinking about moving across the border. They don't want a nuclear war to go off on their doorstep.

The US won't put boots on the ground. They are probably happy to use conventional bombs in huge quantities but that is not going to change the regime on its own. They won't nuke NK unless NK nukes somewhere else - and even then, it's very unlikely. Anything they do will have a massive effect

SK doesn't want a war kicking off 20 miles from its capital. It's very bad for business. It will be terminal for a lot of citizens. There is a huge risk they get nuked with no way of retaliating.

Japan doesn't want to get involved.

None of the major actors seemingly want to deal with the problem other than with sanctions and sabre-rattling. Neither will have any effect on Kimmy boy. If anything, it strengthens his position - they are being threatened and they need a strong leader / nukes.

The best chance is an internal uprising. But given he starved the population and no-one rebelled, he looks like he has a very tight lid on that risk. Most revolutions come from a disaffected middle class (which doesn't exist). The military are not looking like they will rise up as yet.

[Sylvaforever]

The US won't put boots on the ground.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Forc...

[AstonZagato]

They won't put boots on the ground in NK. Lots of reasons why not.

The troops in SK are there for defensive reasons not offensive. They have too many recent stalemates (Korea/Vietnam/Iraq/Afghanistan) to want another. Especially under a President who supposedly wants to put "America first". China would oppose it vehemently. NK's conventional forces would be wiped out but a guerrilla campaign combined with Chinese support/troops is not a situation with which the US would want to deal.

Perhaps if the Chinese invaded from the north and the US bombed from the south/sea, then it could work from a geopolitical point of view. But why would China do that? Kim is a threat to the west but only an embarrassment to China. The west huffing and puffing over Kim means they can ride roughshod over the human rights of their own citizens with less scrutiny. War means that the Chinese elite might be held to account by the people, particularly if there were significant casualties or a nuclear attack. They wouldn't want that.

[Efbe]

skyrover said:

Stuff

As AstonZagato says there needs to be an uprising, or at least a class of people that could form a government should he leave.
This is what need to be worked on now. Just as Tubs is playing a long game, so should we.

Invade the country and he will kill his own people willingly to protect his dictatorship. You can't put boots on the ground, because he is willing to use nukes internally.

communications (with the population, not the regime) are getting much better with NK. At a guess china is already proactively doing what I suggested in getting phones/tech over there.
NK has it's own phones, they are NK branded chinese phones running modded android. there are also the main brands we have, but very few of them.

Most people in Pyongyang have mobile phones. They do not connect to the internet (through NK- near the chinese border is different), but obviously connect phone to phone. It is this information exchange that needs to be expanded out into the countryside.

Then how do you topple the Kim's, god only knows. The regima is far too strong for an internal struggle, unless another of his family kills him, which wouldn't help us out.
an Invasion would not work as suggested previously.
a Strike on just his compound ? maybe, when he is travelling to the military sites would be easier... could it be made to look like an accidental explosion?
It would be highly risky to do this, but I cannot see another route. Unfortunately I fear he will
be expecting this.
Maybe an assassin with a cloth. Play them at their own game.

[mickytruelove]

Sylvaforever said:

The US won't put boots on the ground.

They also said that about syria. Then changed what "boots on the ground meant".