Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
Mr GrimNasty said:
Lithuania joined the Euro club over New Year, no doubt that has devalued it a bit more, strange there wasn't much publicity.
I believe they had to as part of the deal for joining the EU (and, one assumes, the benefit they hope to see from being part of the EUSSR rather than risking Mr. Putin coming in to play.)Once certain financial "conditions" had been met (a year ago from what I read) they has to take the Euro within a year.
Now one could spin a new joiner as being a vote of confidence in the Euro or one could wonder about another Greece in terms of the assessment of the financial "conditions". Or one could just assume that they (and the others with intentions to join) are thought of as small enough that nothing they can do will rock the boat into seeking a sandbank to lie on. Whilst the joiners probably reckon that they can become independently quite wealthy (at least the head politicians probably can) as paid for by Germany and a few others without the amount needed being big enough to cause a blip on the radar.
I suspect the reality is that they just don't matter much to the overall state of play. Or so people think.
Claudia Skies said:
Art0ir said:
Can you expand upon economic suicide?
1. We've decided to write off all our debts and will not be repaying lenders.2. Please can we borrow some money?
Comprende?
Don't forget the plain facts; there are a million fewer people in full time employment in Greece now, compared with before the GFC. Staggering, crushing.
Leaving the Eyore will mean immediate technical default, but will allow the key Greek industries of agriculture and tourism to benefit from a lower currency.
Digga said:
The stark alternative though is to continue to wrangle with the ECB for bailouts which means agreeing to dance to the Troika's tune and ongoing, neverending austerity - there's no real way out because the debt is so huge a proportion of GDP.
Don't forget the plain facts; there are a million fewer people in full time employment in Greece now, compared with before the GFC. Staggering, crushing.
Leaving the Eyore will mean immediate technical default, but will allow the key Greek industries of agriculture and tourism to benefit from a lower currency.
Exactly, except I am not sure the Greeks really want to go back to a separate currency what I am seeing is that the Greek plan is to default on the debt and exit austerity measures and remain in the euro. The Greeks have once again entered into a game of brinkmanship with Berlin. Don't forget the plain facts; there are a million fewer people in full time employment in Greece now, compared with before the GFC. Staggering, crushing.
Leaving the Eyore will mean immediate technical default, but will allow the key Greek industries of agriculture and tourism to benefit from a lower currency.
Berlin is saying Austerity or exit, the Greeks are saying 50% default on loans and remain in the Euro. I think this might be the time when the rest of the Euro finally says enough is enough and after 350bn Euro's have been spent essentially to defend French, Italian and Spanish banks it is now time to allow Greece a favorable default and exit.
As far as I am aware, there is no plan for Greece to go back to a separate national currency.
Andy Zarse said:
Happy new year all.
Driller has summed it up neatly. In the original thread I predicted Greece would be booted out in 2014 and that others might follow. I was wrong and I duly grovel in humiliation. Looking at it retrospectively, at the comments from Tim Geitner and other who were there at the time, it seems Merkel came within five minutes of chucking Greece out in 2012. So I was close, but no cigar...
Looking at Driller's observations above, I think it's fair to ask whether he also thinks all the economic damage and pain inflicted by Euro membership has been worthwhile, not only for the periphery countries but for the core nation too?
As to 2015 I think we are going to see the Euro, which is little more than a festering sore on the leg of the EU, stagger on. It's possible I suppose, Greece will be booted out if Syriza take power but my view is that Tsipras will cave in under German pressure, just like all the other Greek leaders before him. His problem is that he's a full-on Lefty with commensurately insane fruitloop economic policies. What troubles me most about this whole business is that the Greeks still don't seem to accept that the Euro isn't just a status symbol or a bit of paper, it's a hard currency they have to buy off another central bank. It comes with a very high cost; in essence a 50% wage cut, massive taxes, 30% unemployment, industrial production driven back to the levels last seen in 1976 under the military Junta, general austerity and the destruction of civic society. No currency can surely be worth such sacrifice.
I have no idea how or why Tsipras thinks he can keep Greece in the Euro and cancel the debt. If he achieves this then he's a better man than I Gungadin. If not, Germany will cut Greece loose and a disorderly default will follow, which realistically will be the worst of all worlds in the short/medium term. At least Tsipras will have the pleasure of pointing out to Merkel and the German people that they won't be getting a single pfennig back from the money they lent Greece. Incidentally, Germany not getting her money back is something I predicted years ago. A small comfort, but it won't help the Greek economy one bit.
Good post.Driller has summed it up neatly. In the original thread I predicted Greece would be booted out in 2014 and that others might follow. I was wrong and I duly grovel in humiliation. Looking at it retrospectively, at the comments from Tim Geitner and other who were there at the time, it seems Merkel came within five minutes of chucking Greece out in 2012. So I was close, but no cigar...
Looking at Driller's observations above, I think it's fair to ask whether he also thinks all the economic damage and pain inflicted by Euro membership has been worthwhile, not only for the periphery countries but for the core nation too?
As to 2015 I think we are going to see the Euro, which is little more than a festering sore on the leg of the EU, stagger on. It's possible I suppose, Greece will be booted out if Syriza take power but my view is that Tsipras will cave in under German pressure, just like all the other Greek leaders before him. His problem is that he's a full-on Lefty with commensurately insane fruitloop economic policies. What troubles me most about this whole business is that the Greeks still don't seem to accept that the Euro isn't just a status symbol or a bit of paper, it's a hard currency they have to buy off another central bank. It comes with a very high cost; in essence a 50% wage cut, massive taxes, 30% unemployment, industrial production driven back to the levels last seen in 1976 under the military Junta, general austerity and the destruction of civic society. No currency can surely be worth such sacrifice.
I have no idea how or why Tsipras thinks he can keep Greece in the Euro and cancel the debt. If he achieves this then he's a better man than I Gungadin. If not, Germany will cut Greece loose and a disorderly default will follow, which realistically will be the worst of all worlds in the short/medium term. At least Tsipras will have the pleasure of pointing out to Merkel and the German people that they won't be getting a single pfennig back from the money they lent Greece. Incidentally, Germany not getting her money back is something I predicted years ago. A small comfort, but it won't help the Greek economy one bit.
Edited by Andy Zarse on Monday 5th January 09:54
Claudia Skies said:
Gargamel said:
As far as I am aware, there is no plan for Greece.......
You could have stopped the sentence about there! However, I agree. As mentioned earlier, an attempt for Greece to go it alone would look pretty suicidal to me. How many olives for a lemon?If Greece stay in, but have harsh sanctions imposed, then that will also be suicidal for the people of the country as they and their childrens, and grand childrens generations will be slaves to Euro debt well into the future... though it may be preferable for the 'people in power' to avoid economic suicide by leaving, it's also suicide if they stay.
They either encourage more discontent from the PIIGS destabilising Europe more, more debt slavery on their people, or economic misery for the medium term but with no debt burden.
It's not a pretty outcome whichever way you look at it.
It's bad for Greece and Europe whatever happens now... and that is if things go nicely, never mind if they degenerate.
Their Children and Grandchildren already are in slavery to the Euro project
http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/greece
Greece has population of 11 Million people, only about 3.5 Million of those actually have a job, the public secotr is the largest employer... you can see where this is going.
So lets take the 11 m figure - that's 36,000 Euro's for each person alive in Greece today.
The UK would be around 28,000 Euro which is also ridiculously high, however at least we have a private sector.
Andy Zarse said:
Happy new year all.
Driller has summed it up neatly. In the original thread I predicted Greece would be booted out in 2014 and that others might follow. I was wrong and I duly grovel in humiliation.
No need to go that far old boy!Driller has summed it up neatly. In the original thread I predicted Greece would be booted out in 2014 and that others might follow. I was wrong and I duly grovel in humiliation.
A bog standard boot licking would be quite sufficient
Happy new year!
Andy Zarse said:
Looking at Driller's observations above, I think it's fair to ask whether he also thinks all the economic damage and pain inflicted by Euro membership has been worthwhile, not only for the periphery countries but for the core nation too]
To be quite honest I would not be capable of showing in black and white how Euro membership has caused economic damage to these countries. I sense that it probably hasn't been worthwhile, no, but that wouldn't have stopped the politicians doing it anyway because, as ever, they have their own agenda and it was never done for the benefit of the general populationIn the case of France at least, the stupid domestic communist policies are causing far, far more damage than anything the Euro could inflict IMO.
Esseesse said:
If Greece exits and devalues, who's planning on taking a cheap holiday there?
Anecdotally, I hear of a lot of lower income holidaymakers who are now visiting Turkey (many of them look blankly if you mention the word Syria to them) because it is good VFM, so I think the answer is that many more would.Gargamel said:
Their Children and Grandchildren already are in slavery to the Euro project...
Greece has population of 11 Million people, only about 3.5 Million of those actually have a job, the public secotr is the largest employer... you can see where this is going.
Exactly. There were more like 4.5M employed before the crisis. The public sector is now 40% of GDP.Greece has population of 11 Million people, only about 3.5 Million of those actually have a job, the public secotr is the largest employer... you can see where this is going.
If anyone wants to see why the UKs public sector needs keeping in check it is the desperate debt troubles of Greece that make the most compelling argument right now.
Gargamel said:
Their Children and Grandchildren already are in slavery to the Euro project
http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/greece
Greece has population of 11 Million people, only about 3.5 Million of those actually have a job, the public secotr is the largest employer... you can see where this is going.
So lets take the 11 m figure - that's 36,000 Euro's for each person alive in Greece today.
The UK would be around 28,000 Euro which is also ridiculously high, however at least we have a private sector.
Interesting figures.http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/greece
Greece has population of 11 Million people, only about 3.5 Million of those actually have a job, the public secotr is the largest employer... you can see where this is going.
So lets take the 11 m figure - that's 36,000 Euro's for each person alive in Greece today.
The UK would be around 28,000 Euro which is also ridiculously high, however at least we have a private sector.
Yep, Greece are screwed. Leaving would be no worse than staying for the current generation and future ones.
What I want to know is, will the EU use military power to enforce membership of it's population and their debt slavery if the people decide that they do want to leave.
If the EU doesn't, what is to stop anyone leaving?
Hmmmm
Dave
Driller said:
Andy Zarse said:
Happy new year all.
Driller has summed it up neatly. In the original thread I predicted Greece would be booted out in 2014 and that others might follow. I was wrong and I duly grovel in humiliation.
No need to go that far old boy!Driller has summed it up neatly. In the original thread I predicted Greece would be booted out in 2014 and that others might follow. I was wrong and I duly grovel in humiliation.
A bog standard boot licking would be quite sufficient
Happy new year!
Andy Zarse said:
Looking at Driller's observations above, I think it's fair to ask whether he also thinks all the economic damage and pain inflicted by Euro membership has been worthwhile, not only for the periphery countries but for the core nation too]
To be quite honest I would not be capable of showing in black and white how Euro membership has caused economic damage to these countries. I sense that it probably hasn't been worthwhile, no, but that wouldn't have stopped the politicians doing it anyway because, as ever, they have their own agenda and it was never done for the benefit of the general populationIn the case of France at least, the stupid domestic communist policies are causing far, far more damage than anything the Euro could inflict IMO.
Claudia Skies said:
Here we go for 2015....
Greece? Well it always comes back to the basics doesn't it. Few governments are daft enough to commit economic suicide however much they have ranted and raved to get themselves elected.
Christ, just where do you start with this load of crap? - Queen, flag, country, empire, sterling - GOOD!!
- Republics, foreigners, continent, euro - BAD!!
Greece? Well it always comes back to the basics doesn't it. Few governments are daft enough to commit economic suicide however much they have ranted and raved to get themselves elected.
You have totally misunderstood this thread, wilfully I suspect. So to set you straight, you need to recognise it is strictly about economics and politics. It is not about national stereotypes, and it's absolutely not about John Bull bigging himself up or waving Union Jacks. You will find most of us contributing to other threads regarding the hopeless UK fiscal/monetary policy, QE etc in similar tones and terms.
Show me where anyone on this thread makes such jingoistic and chauvinistic posts as you offensively ascribe to us. Show me where anyone has denounced or belittled people of the other nations of the EU? Their politicians and policies sure, but never the people.
Unfortunately trying to force a square peg into a round hole has never worked. You seriously think Greece hasn't committed economic suicide already? You know the stats as well as I do. Staying in an unaffordable currency and paying off debt with yet more debt at unaffordable rates whilst smashing their economy to pieces is what I call economic suicide; how about you?
Edited by Andy Zarse on Tuesday 6th January 14:04
Andy Zarse said:
Christ, just where do you start with this load of crap?
You have totally misunderstood this thread, wilfully I suspect. So to set you straight, you need to recognise it is strictly about economics and politics. It is not about national stereotypes, and it's absolutely not about John Bull bigging himself up or waving Union Jacks. You will find most of us contributing to other threads regarding the hopeless UK fiscal/monetary policy, QE etc in similar tones and terms.
Show me where anyone on this thread makes such jingoistic and chauvinistic posts as you offensively ascribe to us. Show me where anyone has denounced or belittled people of the other nations of the EU? Their politicians and policies sure, but never the people.
Unfortunately trying to force a square peg into a round hole has never worked. You seriously think Greece hasn't committed economic suicide already? You know the stats as well as I do. Staying in an unaffordable currency and paying off debt with yet more debt at unaffordable rates is what I call economic suicide.
In addition to which, quite a few on this thread live and work in the Eurozone, or do our principle business outside the UK. You have totally misunderstood this thread, wilfully I suspect. So to set you straight, you need to recognise it is strictly about economics and politics. It is not about national stereotypes, and it's absolutely not about John Bull bigging himself up or waving Union Jacks. You will find most of us contributing to other threads regarding the hopeless UK fiscal/monetary policy, QE etc in similar tones and terms.
Show me where anyone on this thread makes such jingoistic and chauvinistic posts as you offensively ascribe to us. Show me where anyone has denounced or belittled people of the other nations of the EU? Their politicians and policies sure, but never the people.
Unfortunately trying to force a square peg into a round hole has never worked. You seriously think Greece hasn't committed economic suicide already? You know the stats as well as I do. Staying in an unaffordable currency and paying off debt with yet more debt at unaffordable rates is what I call economic suicide.
Claudia Skies said:
Art0ir said:
Can you expand upon economic suicide?
1. We've decided to write off all our debts and will not be repaying lenders.2. Please can we borrow some money?
Comprende?
Actually, there is a reason why they'd need some short term support but since you clearly know everything anyway there's no point discussing it with you.
Germany contemplates the s
t sandwich of Greek default and suffers loss of appetite?
I particularly like this little gem of self-delusion;
t sandwich of Greek default and suffers loss of appetite?I particularly like this little gem of self-delusion;
Mercopress said:
According to Der Spiegel, Chancellor Angela Merkel is more confident that the euro area would survive a Greek departure than in previous years, particularly as Ireland and Portugal have completed and exited their reform programs.
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