Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

[Andy Zarse]

Claudia Skies said:

Andy Zarse said:

Greece is now running a primary budget surplus once you take out the repayment of debt.

Brilliant! I'm absolutely rolling in money!

.....once you take out the repayment of debt.

Pure delusion.

I'm sorry but you're making yourself look a fool.

Debt write down and pre-pack asset sale is standard commercial practice for insolvent corporations. It's not so different for sovereigns except they can get the added benefit of devaluing their currency too.

Debt default/devaluation has long been used to restructure sovereign debt. It was the IMF's standard policy prescription for years, well until such time that nice Mr Dominique Strauss-Kahn was appointed by the EU to run the IMF. Default/devaluation worked with considerable success until this point in time. Naturally, as I'm sure you recall, DS-K was sacked for fking a hotel maid, who claimed he'd raped her, and then arrested on the plane trying to flee the USA.

So Madame Christine L'Orange took over the IMF and since DS-K clearly had good judgement she seamlessly followed his failed models and applied them to Portugal etc. Would you be interested in knowing how the IMF's projections for, say, the Greece economy have turned out against the actual results following the bail out*? No? Thought not...

• When they say "bail-out" what they actually mean is loading Greece with more and more unsustainable debt. Since you find the idea of a debt write down to be "brilliant", perhaps you could kindly explain why you think lending more money with punitive interest rates to an already bankrupt country is a better idea. We're all ears.

[Andy Zarse]

hidetheelephants said:

Germany contemplates the st sandwich of Greek default and suffers loss of appetite?

I particularly like this little gem of self-delusion;

Mercopress said:

According to Der Spiegel, Chancellor Angela Merkel is more confident that the euro area would survive a Greek departure than in previous years, particularly as Ireland and Portugal have completed and exited their reform programs.

You couldn't make it up!

Funny you should mention Portugal though. I wonder how they're doing...

http://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/2015/01/...

Tell me, does that sound like a country ready to take some systemic shocks?

[LongQ]

Andy Zarse said:

Given the swingeing austerity, Greece is now running a primary budget surplus once you take out the repayment of debt. By defaulting they render themselves solvent. So please explain why would Greece need to borrow any money?

Actually, there is a reason why they'd need some short term support but since you clearly know everything anyway there's no point discussing it with you.

The "Eminent" Vicky Pryce, who knows a things or two about life and Greece, in the Daily Mail on 28th December.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article...

"One of the sectors worst hit was banking, which had just scraped through the ECB’s stress test though three of the four main banks failed the central bank’s ‘static’ tests and loan provisions needed strengthening.

And yet Greece has been recovering thanks to record tourist receipts and the deficit has come down faster than in many other crisis hit countries from 15 per cent in 2009 to an expected 3 per cent in 2014.

Greece is now achieving a primary surplus if interest payments on its €250billion (£195billion) debt are excluded.

Last summer Greece managed once again to tap the private markets for funds."



So, as I seem to recall suggesting some months back - maybe even a couple of years by now - the simple solution to the problem could be to "encourage" (read Mandate) that Germans take a 2 week cheap holiday in Greece every year for the next 2 or 3 years (Or "however long it takes" to paraphrase Mr. Draghi) so that they pay, as they surely will one way of another, but at least get some value back for the payment.

They could easily revalue simply by including a discount for everyone paying cash in Euros.

At some point thereafter the Greeks can follow their well documented past history and default anyway setting off the next cycle but in the meantime honour, at least for the Germans, could be satisfied. Mostly.

Of course if the single market/eurozone was working as it might have been in tended to work the Med holiday camps would be self sufficient soaking up the holiday makers spend topped up by a few raids on the CAP funds for the tomato and olive growers. And for goats milk. (I have recently read that goat milk and olives are in short supply at the moment and so prices are likely to rise. Well, well, well. Who would have thought it? Quite an opportunity.)

[Gargamel]

Andy Zarse said:

You couldn't make it up!

Funny you should mention Portugal though. I wonder how they're doing...

http://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/2015/01/...

Tell me, does that sound like a country ready to take some systemic shocks?

More interestingly (for me anyway) is that it kind of points up a future whereby the economic conditions are "locked in" there can by no major growth driver (anyone with a revolutionary business idea would be INSANE to base it in Portugal) debt won't change, natural resources, intellectual capability almost every facet of the drivers for economic growth are in a steady, calmed state.

Zombie states indeed, unable to vary their own needs as they are locked into a rented currency which serves only Germany/Central states not the periphery

[Mr Whippy]

Gargamel said:

Zombie states indeed, unable to vary their own needs as they are locked into a rented currency which serves only Germany/Central states not the periphery

By design.

The bigger the capitalist monster, the more insatiable it's need to have captive debt holders.

What they don't seem to realise though is the world is only finite and the debt will eventually catch up with them, and the people will eventually call time (which the Greeks should do now imo, because it'll only get worse and worse), at which point it'll be messy as super rich people and high order gravy train passengers won't want the ride to stop.

Dave

[Andy Zarse]

Gargamel said:

More interestingly (for me anyway) is that it kind of points up a future whereby the economic conditions are "locked in" there can by no major growth driver (anyone with a revolutionary business idea would be INSANE to base it in Portugal) debt won't change, natural resources, intellectual capability almost every facet of the drivers for economic growth are in a steady, calmed state.

Zombie states indeed, unable to vary their own needs as they are locked into a rented currency which serves only Germany/Central states not the periphery

Steady except for the demographics. On top of the falling birth rates and rising number of retired, I recently heard that Portuguese youth we're moving to Spain to look for work. Yes, Spain! They must be absolutely blooody desperate!

[toppstuff]

Mr Whippy said:

The bigger the capitalist monster, the more insatiable it's need to have captive debt holders.

Dave

I think you can choose to see the world through a lens that paints capitalism as wrong, as western democracies as duplicitous and evil, and mankind on a road to hell in a hand basket.

Or you can see the world through a lens that reveals how more people are living longer than ever before and where technology may just save our species. Where there are plenty of people all around you still looking out for their neighbours and helping each other along.

One is as valid as the other. Perhaps we choose the lens that best matches the colour of our beliefs system.

[Mermaid]

Andy Zarse said:

Steady except for the demographics. On top of the falling birth rates and rising number of retired, I recently heard that Portuguese youth we're moving to Spain to look for work. Yes, Spain! They must be absolutely blooody desperate!

& I have come across more Portuguese tradesmen here than ever before, Just a few old foggies left in sunny Lisbon soon. And British tourists.

[Mr Whippy]

toppstuff said:

Mr Whippy said:

The bigger the capitalist monster, the more insatiable it's need to have captive debt holders.

Dave

I think you can choose to see the world through a lens that paints capitalism as wrong, as western democracies as duplicitous and evil, and mankind on a road to hell in a hand basket.

Or you can see the world through a lens that reveals how more people are living longer than ever before and where technology may just save our species. Where there are plenty of people all around you still looking out for their neighbours and helping each other along.

One is as valid as the other. Perhaps we choose the lens that best matches the colour of our beliefs system.

You're confusing "the people" with banks and governments though.

No one chooses to use financial systems that are flawed to repeated failure, with socialised debt, and privatised profit.

There are lots of good things in this world, but none of them come about from governments and banks forcing us to pay them interest on debts we are born with.

Humanity has survived countless millennia, so no doubt Greece can survive without the EU and it's banking system that has in this case created a country of debt serfs.



Ideologies and economic models don't cause the problems, greedy people do, as I've alluded to many times before in my posts.

Lean whichever way you want, embrace whatever socio-economic ideal you want, but fundamentally it'll all go to crap no matter what because we perpetually let the wrong types into power, those who want it!


I paint greedy power hungry people as duplicitous and evil, and are taking mankind on a road to hell in a hand basket... all under whatever banner they choose.



No normal person would want Greece to suffer, and the only people losing out if they default or leave the Euro/EU are those greedy enough to have lent them money knowing they were unlikely to be able to repay it.
If that causes economic instability for Europe, then tough st. If they don't like instability, stop lending money around like fking cretinous dimwits.


I'm fed up of bailing out the bad risks banks make with money I haven't even earned yet, given away by my government without even asking me!

Dave

[Art0ir]

chris watton said:

Claudia Skies said:

Art0ir said:

You among many other fail to see the bigger picture.

Dictionary: Arrogant - adjective

1. making claims or pretensions to superior importance or rights; overbearingly assuming; insolently proud:
"an arrogant public official."

2. characterized by or proceeding from arrogance, or a sense of superiority, self-importance, or entitlement:
"arrogant claims."

So, you haven't an argument against what Art0ir wrote, then?

Still waiting

[DJRC]

Mr Whippy said:

toppstuff said:

Mr Whippy said:

The bigger the capitalist monster, the more insatiable it's need to have captive debt holders.

Dave

I think you can choose to see the world through a lens that paints capitalism as wrong, as western democracies as duplicitous and evil, and mankind on a road to hell in a hand basket.

Or you can see the world through a lens that reveals how more people are living longer than ever before and where technology may just save our species. Where there are plenty of people all around you still looking out for their neighbours and helping each other along.

One is as valid as the other. Perhaps we choose the lens that best matches the colour of our beliefs system.

You're confusing "the people" with banks and governments though.

No one chooses to use financial systems that are flawed to repeated failure, with socialised debt, and privatised profit.

There are lots of good things in this world, but none of them come about from governments and banks forcing us to pay them interest on debts we are born with.

Humanity has survived countless millennia, so no doubt Greece can survive without the EU and it's banking system that has in this case created a country of debt serfs.



Ideologies and economic models don't cause the problems, greedy people do, as I've alluded to many times before in my posts.

Lean whichever way you want, embrace whatever socio-economic ideal you want, but fundamentally it'll all go to crap no matter what because we perpetually let the wrong types into power, those who want it!


I paint greedy power hungry people as duplicitous and evil, and are taking mankind on a road to hell in a hand basket... all under whatever banner they choose.



No normal person would want Greece to suffer, and the only people losing out if they default or leave the Euro/EU are those greedy enough to have lent them money knowing they were unlikely to be able to repay it.
If that causes economic instability for Europe, then tough st. If they don't like instability, stop lending money around like fking cretinous dimwits.


I'm fed up of bailing out the bad risks banks make with money I haven't even earned yet, given away by my government without even asking me!

Dave

How did he confuse people with banks & govt? He said people are living longer and looking out for others and their neighbours.

[Mr Whippy]

I'm referencing the first sentence, or the last. Paints, sees.

I don't subscribe to any of what was said there. Nothing is inherently wrong with capitalism, communism, greed, charity, religion, whatever.

The problems we face are the application of these things in extremes, ultimately underlying being drive by greed.



Having Greece join the Euro and lend them all that money was essentially doing a Wonga loan to them.

We've limited how silly Wonga loans can now be in exploiting people, but we're happy to let the ECB and other European central banks lend money willy nilly knowing the risks are high and the public will bail it all out when it goes awry.

That isn't the fault of capitalism, that is the fault of greed and capitalism combined, and that is the world we currently live in. One where we have a bunch of western capitalist monsters, rather than capitalist saints and angels.

Dave

[DJRC]

What is this we crap?

Whatsmore you live in a world that is exactly the same as it has always been. The only difference currently compared to most of the last few hundred years is arguably that Britain is currently missing out on exploiting the world!!! There is very much a lack of ruthlessness in British thinking for my liking.

[Mr Whippy]

DJRC said:

What is this we crap?

Whatsmore you live in a world that is exactly the same as it has always been. The only difference currently compared to most of the last few hundred years is arguably that Britain is currently missing out on exploiting the world!!! There is very much a lack of ruthlessness in British thinking for my liking.

OK sorry, UK regulators have limited Wonga.

The market should have decided, or people's brains. Who loses except the idiots lending the money and the silly people borrowing it.


As for ruthlessness, I'd agree that the UK seems to live in the shadows compared to how it used to. I'm unsure why, or if that is just a perception thing?!


It's not always been the same. The EU has been taking shape slowly but surely for decades, and in the last couple the union is so much closer that we're becoming entangled with the reckless lending of money to bad debtors...


Those are debts I didn't sign up to be burdened with.

[DJRC]

Mr Whippy said:

DJRC said:

What is this we crap?

Whatsmore you live in a world that is exactly the same as it has always been. The only difference currently compared to most of the last few hundred years is arguably that Britain is currently missing out on exploiting the world!!! There is very much a lack of ruthlessness in British thinking for my liking.

OK sorry, UK regulators have limited Wonga.

The market should have decided, or people's brains. Who loses except the idiots lending the money and the silly people borrowing it.


As for ruthlessness, I'd agree that the UK seems to live in the shadows compared to how it used to. I'm unsure why, or if that is just a perception thing?!


It's not always been the same. The EU has been taking shape slowly but surely for decades, and in the last couple the union is so much closer that we're becoming entangled with the reckless lending of money to bad debtors...


Those are debts I didn't sign up to be burdened with.

? You aren't burdened with any EU debts to bad debtors.
I wouldn't mind this whinge if you were but you aren't. I on the other hand actually pay my tax in Germany, so I know full well that in addition to my 5% going to the ex commies in the East, some of my tax take is also going to Greece. None of yours has. In fact more of your tax take was lost in the £20m "invested" in 47 Ronin than has been lost in EU bad loan debts.

If you are going to have a whinge, at least have something real to whinge over not just some namby pamby theoretical principle crap. And esp not to those of us who actually have some skin in the game. We tend to treat you with the contempt you deserve.

[Mr Whippy]

DJRC said:

Mr Whippy said:

DJRC said:

What is this we crap?

Whatsmore you live in a world that is exactly the same as it has always been. The only difference currently compared to most of the last few hundred years is arguably that Britain is currently missing out on exploiting the world!!! There is very much a lack of ruthlessness in British thinking for my liking.

OK sorry, UK regulators have limited Wonga.

The market should have decided, or people's brains. Who loses except the idiots lending the money and the silly people borrowing it.


As for ruthlessness, I'd agree that the UK seems to live in the shadows compared to how it used to. I'm unsure why, or if that is just a perception thing?!


It's not always been the same. The EU has been taking shape slowly but surely for decades, and in the last couple the union is so much closer that we're becoming entangled with the reckless lending of money to bad debtors...


Those are debts I didn't sign up to be burdened with.

? You aren't burdened with any EU debts to bad debtors.
I wouldn't mind this whinge if you were but you aren't. I on the other hand actually pay my tax in Germany, so I know full well that in addition to my 5% going to the ex commies in the East, some of my tax take is also going to Greece. None of yours has. In fact more of your tax take was lost in the £20m "invested" in 47 Ronin than has been lost in EU bad loan debts.

If you are going to have a whinge, at least have something real to whinge over not just some namby pamby theoretical principle crap. And esp not to those of us who actually have some skin in the game. We tend to treat you with the contempt you deserve.

I didn't say I directly paid them.

I said becoming entangled.

And most of my 2013/2014 earnings were Euro funds so I've had to suffer the ups and downs of the exchange rate.


As nice as it is to think that were isolated in the UK, it's still completely reasonable to think the Greek debt will impact people in the UK to a varying degree.

Were it not for the weakening Euro, weak because of the debt burden and chances of default of Greece, then I'd have done quite a bit better last year.


How much skin in the game, via varying levels of entanglement that this bad debt pulls on around the entire world, do I need to have, to have a valid grievance?

I think anyone in Europe has a grievance personally, but that is just my opinion, just as yours is yours.

Dave

[DJRC]

Mr Whippy said:

DJRC said:

Mr Whippy said:

DJRC said:

What is this we crap?

Whatsmore you live in a world that is exactly the same as it has always been. The only difference currently compared to most of the last few hundred years is arguably that Britain is currently missing out on exploiting the world!!! There is very much a lack of ruthlessness in British thinking for my liking.

OK sorry, UK regulators have limited Wonga.

The market should have decided, or people's brains. Who loses except the idiots lending the money and the silly people borrowing it.


As for ruthlessness, I'd agree that the UK seems to live in the shadows compared to how it used to. I'm unsure why, or if that is just a perception thing?!


It's not always been the same. The EU has been taking shape slowly but surely for decades, and in the last couple the union is so much closer that we're becoming entangled with the reckless lending of money to bad debtors...


Those are debts I didn't sign up to be burdened with.

? You aren't burdened with any EU debts to bad debtors.
I wouldn't mind this whinge if you were but you aren't. I on the other hand actually pay my tax in Germany, so I know full well that in addition to my 5% going to the ex commies in the East, some of my tax take is also going to Greece. None of yours has. In fact more of your tax take was lost in the £20m "invested" in 47 Ronin than has been lost in EU bad loan debts.

If you are going to have a whinge, at least have something real to whinge over not just some namby pamby theoretical principle crap. And esp not to those of us who actually have some skin in the game. We tend to treat you with the contempt you deserve.

I didn't say I directly paid them.

I said becoming entangled.

And most of my 2013/2014 earnings were Euro funds so I've had to suffer the ups and downs of the exchange rate.


As nice as it is to think that were isolated in the UK, it's still completely reasonable to think the Greek debt will impact people in the UK to a varying degree.

Were it not for the weakening Euro, weak because of the debt burden and chances of default of Greece, then I'd have done quite a bit better last year.


How much skin in the game, via varying levels of entanglement that this bad debt pulls on around the entire world, do I need to have, to have a valid grievance?

I think anyone in Europe has a grievance personally, but that is just my opinion, just as yours is yours.

Dave

Quoting you directly:

"I'm fed up of bailing out the bad risks banks make with money I haven't even earned yet, given away by my government without even asking me!"

That is you blaming your govt (UK) for using your money to pay for other ppls bad loans. Which contradicts you above saying you hadn't been affected directly. And then above you are saying most of your earnings are in Euros therefore affected by the exchange rate. Earnings though, not taxes then paid out. To whom? According to your initial posts, it reads as taxed in UK, so back to my initial point to you. Or is your whinge actually about your earnings not being as much as they should be due to the whimsy of the exchange rate which you are blaming on the weakness of the Euro due to the unfavourable economic situation in Europe? BUT, that doesn't really cut it either as the exchange rate in 2013 was more favourable to the Euro than it was to the £, it only moved back to the £ in 2014.

Your definition of skin in the game seems to vary depending on whether you are talking about your profit & earnings made or how much tax you have paid to be wasted by the Uk govt in bailing out Eurozone debt. Given that your initial point was the second of those two positions and the answer to that is essentially fk all, then bringing in your first point to whinge about your earnings smacks simply of you attempting to move goalposts to suit your argument and just ending up looking silly.

How much skin in the game you need? Pay tax. In Europe. Have your tax bill tell you your explicit % of "consolidation" and then be told by the Bundesbank that another 1% of your tax bill will be going on foreign "consolidation". *Then* you can try and attempt to whinge and do so with facts not opinions. Currently you have no facts, questionable opinions and no viable argument. I don't have opinions, merely solid financial facts that are my quarterly tax bills payable to Finanzebank Muenchen with everything laid out. It is a considerable difference - esp when I haven't actually offered you an opinion about the wider impact of Greek debt or not.

[Mr Whippy]

The goal posts aren't moving, you're just being more critical about the exact wording rather than the spirit of my posts.

I'm not trying to move goal posts to win an argument, I'm just express my feelings, which I feel are reasonable to have.




I'm worse off today because of the bad debts the EU is providing. That is a given. Even if it's quite indirect, it's correct. You pay taxes, I suffer with a weak Euro, others suffer in their own other ways.

And if we join the Euro currency in the near future which is reasonably likely, then I will be directly paying future taxes in some shape or form to support bad debts realised over the years in Greece.

And it's correct that I won't have a vote on that, we'll join into that burden post bad debt being provided. And I doubt even those of you in Euro currency European countries have a choice on the matter either.



In summation, what is wrong with that standpoint and being angry with those who have lent out money to bad debtors?

Should I be happy?

Or just indifferent?


Dave

[Gargamel]

I seem to recall the UK "loaned" Ireland around £7bn to help them out of a short term pinch. Not sure we will see that coming back.

[RYH64E]

Mr Whippy said:

And if we join the Euro currency in the near future which is reasonably likely,

Really? Do you have special inside information because I can't see that as being likely at all...

The weak GBP/USD is costing me a lot at the moment, I guess that's down to the EU as well?