The Irish border
Discussion
loafer123 said:
Sway said:
PurpleMoonlight said:
Ayahuasca said:
News today is that 'no deal' will include a border in the Irish Sea, thus dividing the Union and throwing the DUP under the bus.
Why doesn't 'no deal' mean no deal? If they want a border, let the EU impose one.
Why would 'no deal' mean a border in the Irish Sea and not the land border between Ireland/NI?Why doesn't 'no deal' mean no deal? If they want a border, let the EU impose one.
"No deal" means a border between RoI and NI.
The "backstop" or possible "backstop to the backstop" may well involve a border down the Irish Sea, if the rumours are to be believed.
No way that will wash.
loafer123 said:
Sway said:
PurpleMoonlight said:
Ayahuasca said:
News today is that 'no deal' will include a border in the Irish Sea, thus dividing the Union and throwing the DUP under the bus.
Why doesn't 'no deal' mean no deal? If they want a border, let the EU impose one.
Why would 'no deal' mean a border in the Irish Sea and not the land border between Ireland/NI?Why doesn't 'no deal' mean no deal? If they want a border, let the EU impose one.
"No deal" means a border between RoI and NI.
The "backstop" or possible "backstop to the backstop" may well involve a border down the Irish Sea, if the rumours are to be believed.
Sway said:
I don't think I am - the "backstop" is only required in the event of there not being a trade deal/agreed Withdrawal Statement - this is May suggesting that regardless, the UK will bear the brunt of the issues it causes...
In principle, the backstop is only required *until* the politically agreed long term deal can be documented and implemented such that there is a barrier free border.In practice, you may be right that the EU is seeking to trap us permanently by saying "sorry old chap, impossible to implement."
Sway said:
I don't think I am - the "backstop" is only required in the event of there not being a trade deal/agreed Withdrawal Statement - this is May suggesting that regardless, the UK will bear the brunt of the issues it causes...
Come again?The backstop is part of a 'deal'. 'no deal' means no backstop.
This article on ConHome is well worth a read:
From an analysis of the Withdrawal Agreement’s text: How the Irish protocol would separate Great Britain from Northern Ireland.
https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2018/1...
From an analysis of the Withdrawal Agreement’s text: How the Irish protocol would separate Great Britain from Northern Ireland.
https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2018/1...
The Times did a poll and found 60% of the Northern Irish people actually want NI to remain in the single market and are happy to have a separate arrangement with the EU thus distancing themselves from Britain.
If that's what the people want shouldn't the DUP be backing May?
Also shouldn't the Tory MPs who have taken Britain and NI having no differing relationships with Europe as a red line also let that one go?
If that's what the people want shouldn't the DUP be backing May?
Also shouldn't the Tory MPs who have taken Britain and NI having no differing relationships with Europe as a red line also let that one go?
Tannedbaldhead said:
60% of the Northern Irish people actually want NI to remain in the single market and are happy to have a separate arrangement with the EU thus distancing themselves from Britain.
How does that number compare to the percentage of the population who might identify as Nationalists and want reunification?Smells a lot like the usual sectarianism.
Jonesy23 said:
Tannedbaldhead said:
60% of the Northern Irish people actually want NI to remain in the single market and are happy to have a separate arrangement with the EU thus distancing themselves from Britain.
How does that number compare to the percentage of the population who might identify as Nationalists and want reunification?Smells a lot like the usual sectarianism.
That said the breakdown was as near as damn 100% of those identifying as "Nationalist" and "Others" wanted to remain within the Single Market and 20% of those identifying as "Unionist"
Am also puzzled by the DUP's antagonism towards the EU when a sizable majority of its electorate voted to remain.
All this talk or suggestion about Ireland reunification - who is going to accept paying £5BILLiON a year into N Ireland an instant tax rise to subsidise them?
I’m pretty sure if ROI rolls it’s population hey One Ireland but.... we are 3m people so we’re going to have to tighten our belts massively and suck up £5b of annual costs. What you say?
I’m pretty sure if ROI rolls it’s population hey One Ireland but.... we are 3m people so we’re going to have to tighten our belts massively and suck up £5b of annual costs. What you say?
Tannedbaldhead said:
Regardless, the numbers are the numbers.
That said the breakdown was as near as damn 100% of those identifying as "Nationalist" and "Others" wanted to remain within the Single Market and 20% of those identifying as "Unionist"
Am also puzzled by the DUP's antagonism towards the EU when a sizable majority of its electorate voted to remain.
Because their overriding priority is to remain part of the UK. As is their electorate's (for now at least).That said the breakdown was as near as damn 100% of those identifying as "Nationalist" and "Others" wanted to remain within the Single Market and 20% of those identifying as "Unionist"
Am also puzzled by the DUP's antagonism towards the EU when a sizable majority of its electorate voted to remain.
It's analogous to Gib, or Scotland.
Regional breakdowns are irrelevant. The vote was a UK vote. If you start to break that down, why wouldn't you apply that to Scotland? Or London? Would you take it down to constituency level?
If your answer is why not... Then you are essentially advocating the break up of the UK and the EU becoming the overarching state infrastructure. If you believe in that as an outcome then that is fair enough. But try putting that on a "people's vote" referendum and see how far you get.
My guess is that it'd be rejected at least 80:20 and probably a good deal more. There were few remain voters who lived the EU unconditionally enough to also want it to be a federal state.
Tannedbaldhead said:
Jonesy23 said:
Tannedbaldhead said:
60% of the Northern Irish people actually want NI to remain in the single market and are happy to have a separate arrangement with the EU thus distancing themselves from Britain.
How does that number compare to the percentage of the population who might identify as Nationalists and want reunification?Smells a lot like the usual sectarianism.
That said the breakdown was as near as damn 100% of those identifying as "Nationalist" and "Others" wanted to remain within the Single Market and 20% of those identifying as "Unionist"
Am also puzzled by the DUP's antagonism towards the EU when a sizable majority of its electorate voted to remain.
Take a regular Joe like myself. I'm supposedly identifying as Nationalist, because I'm a Roman Catholic. I don't vote Sinn Fein, I don't vote DUP but if there was a unification poll, I would vote to remain in the UK as I believe that's what's best for NI right now. If DUP back T May's deal and NI was in a good position, many 'nationalists' would be like 'nice one, that works well' so straight away, a large portion of nationalists would vote to remain in the UK, which weakens any opportunity for a unification vote being passed.
If we end up with a hard brexit, and NI struggles straight after - NI would absolutely give serious consideration to a United Ireland. People like me who want to remain in the UK could switch overnight. You'll have republicans and loyalists who will always vote one direction no matter what the circumstance, but the variable demographics (moderate nationalists, moderate unionists) will simply vote what they think is best for their family, what's best for NI's future.
So yes, you are right to be puzzled by the DUP's strategy here. By trying to protect the union at all costs, they are actually putting it more at risk - its truly a bizarre strategy. Which is why I think they've got so much paranoia, as they can't see the true picture of NI and its people. A bit of concession in negotiations could actually strengthen the union. As I mentioned, you would have 'nationalists' like me actually leaning towards the Union because peace, stability and prosperity are more important to everyday Joe's than what flag is above government buildings.
Sinn Fein and DUP engage in tribal politics but people, especially young people, are beginning to despise those parties, as they aren't truly representative of what we need from political parties. DUP haven't covered themselves in glory, and have backed themselves into a corner now. Publicly, they are playing the game so that they get the brexit they want, but at the same time, being able to put the blame on someone else if we end up with a bad Brexit. If we end up with a hard Brexit, we'll see the DUP blame everyone else, T May has let us down, parliament didn't deliver or any other excuse you care to mention, but we can all see that in the cold light of day, they have already shown that they are prepared to simply roll the dice with the future of NI.
It is always dodgy to argue with a local over NI politics, but...!
I would suggest that part of the reasoning behind the DUP stance is to avoid the creation of trade barriers between NI and the rest of the UK.
This is logical because the trade between NI and the rest of the UK far exceeds that between NI and Eire.
Welshbeef said:
All this talk or suggestion about Ireland reunification - who is going to accept paying £5BILLiON a year into N Ireland an instant tax rise to subsidise them?
I’m pretty sure if ROI rolls it’s population hey One Ireland but.... we are 3m people so we’re going to have to tighten our belts massively and suck up £5b of annual costs. What you say?
Without the burden of the six counties you could undoubtedly afford to buy that 944 after all this time.I’m pretty sure if ROI rolls it’s population hey One Ireland but.... we are 3m people so we’re going to have to tighten our belts massively and suck up £5b of annual costs. What you say?
loafer123 said:
It is always dodgy to argue with a local over NI politics, but...!
I would suggest that part of the reasoning behind the DUP stance is to avoid the creation of trade barriers between NI and the rest of the UK.
This is logical because the trade between NI and the rest of the UK far exceeds that between NI and Eire.
You are right - and using the phrase 'part of the reason' is quite apt, because it is only part of the reason, and not the underlying reason, which is to create further divergence between ROI and NI. That's the main reason they campaigned for Brexit.I would suggest that part of the reasoning behind the DUP stance is to avoid the creation of trade barriers between NI and the rest of the UK.
This is logical because the trade between NI and the rest of the UK far exceeds that between NI and Eire.
NI business has almost unanimously come out in support of the deal T May has delivered for NI, so DUP can't really say on one hand that trade is an underlying reason for taking their stance, when NI trade bodies are saying they welcome it. Despite that point, they actually are still trying to say that its an issue, but most people in NI can see through this, its more of a leveraged discussion point in parliament, rather than something that actually has any substance.
And when we consider the way the deal is structured, NI can export freely between GB and ROI - its only imports to NI that would need checked, which is a massive difference compared to if it was 2 way checks.
If we look at who would suffer from this added red tape for imports, it will be Sainsburys, Asda and the like who will be bringing in poultry products on a daily basis and that type of thing. This red tape and associated administration can only result in one thing - increased price of the product which of course, is something nobody would want. However, this could place an emphasis for them to use more local NI produce instead, which in turn supports our local industry.
NI business has come out and said, yes, we can live with that red tape - its a small issue in the wider scheme of things. The overall result would be a net gain for NI business which is why they are getting behind the deal, as apposed to a hard brexit which is most definitely not supported. So the DUP have backed themselves into a corner somewhat, and by continuing with their original strategy, they are now putting themselves at the opposite side of the table of some of those they rely on to give them their votes.
They've somehow found themselves in the situation that no matter what they do, they are damned if they do, damned if they don't. If they support the deal of T May, the loyalist side of the electorate would be furious, as they've spent 2 years taking a hard stance to any compromise on NI divergence from GB. We're too far down the road now for them to soften their stance.
And on the other hand, voting against T May and taking us towards a hard brexit, leaves the moderate unionists furious, as they are putting their political views before the general progress of NI and are seemingly happy to offer up peoples jobs and the general NI economy as a sacrifice. How they balance out these two contrasting points will be interesting.
soupdragon1 said:
NI business has almost unanimously come out in support of the deal T May has delivered for NI, so DUP can't really say on one hand that trade is an underlying reason for taking their stance, when NI trade bodies are saying they welcome it. Despite that point, they actually are still trying to say that its an issue, but most people in NI can see through this, its more of a leveraged discussion point in parliament, rather than something that actually has any substance.
And when we consider the way the deal is structured, NI can export freely between GB and ROI - its only imports to NI that would need checked, which is a massive difference compared to if it was 2 way checks.
If we look at who would suffer from this added red tape for imports, it will be Sainsburys, Asda and the like who will be bringing in poultry products on a daily basis and that type of thing. This red tape and associated administration can only result in one thing - increased price of the product which of course, is something nobody would want. However, this could place an emphasis for them to use more local NI produce instead, which in turn supports our local industry.
NI business has come out and said, yes, we can live with that red tape - its a small issue in the wider scheme of things. The overall result would be a net gain for NI business which is why they are getting behind the deal, as apposed to a hard brexit which is most definitely not supported. .
What people in the mainland don't realise is the impact Brexit has on NI.And when we consider the way the deal is structured, NI can export freely between GB and ROI - its only imports to NI that would need checked, which is a massive difference compared to if it was 2 way checks.
If we look at who would suffer from this added red tape for imports, it will be Sainsburys, Asda and the like who will be bringing in poultry products on a daily basis and that type of thing. This red tape and associated administration can only result in one thing - increased price of the product which of course, is something nobody would want. However, this could place an emphasis for them to use more local NI produce instead, which in turn supports our local industry.
NI business has come out and said, yes, we can live with that red tape - its a small issue in the wider scheme of things. The overall result would be a net gain for NI business which is why they are getting behind the deal, as apposed to a hard brexit which is most definitely not supported. .
Spend time in Donegal and you'll notice trucks with NI plates delivering the animal feed to the farms. The livestock go to Co Derry for slaughter but the carcasses go back over the border to be butchered, processed and packed in the Republic and then a proportion of that meat is exported back to NI and Britain.
Spend time in Dublin industrial estates and you'll see plenty of Northern plates on vans and lorries dropping off materials and equipment whilst the same thing is going on with Republic plates in Belfast.
People live and work on both sides of the border and trades service both sides of the border.
Over the years the economies of the Republic and Northern Ireland have become very integrated. Add friction and costs to this and the whole country North and South particularly around the border will suffer and suffer badly.
The other problem is if NI was to join the Republic and remain in the EU trade with mainland Britain would suffer.
DUP need to start thinking about important stuff like money and stop worrying about nonsense like flags and identity.
Tannedbaldhead said:
What people in the mainland don't realise is the impact Brexit has on NI.
Spend time in Donegal and you'll notice trucks with NI plates delivering the animal feed to the farms. The livestock go to Co Derry for slaughter but the carcasses go back over the border to be butchered, processed and packed in the Republic and then a proportion of that meat is exported back to NI and Britain.
Spend time in Dublin industrial estates and you'll see plenty of Northern plates on vans and lorries dropping off materials and equipment whilst the same thing is going on with Republic plates in Belfast.
People live and work on both sides of the border and trades service both sides of the border.
Over the years the economies of the Republic and Northern Ireland have become very integrated. Add friction and costs to this and the whole country North and South particularly around the border will suffer and suffer badly.
The other problem is if NI was to join the Republic and remain in the EU trade with mainland Britain would suffer.
DUP need to start thinking about important stuff like money and stop worrying about nonsense like flags and identity.
They are very much integrated now and when you look at how people within NI regions voted on Brexit - every border area voted to remain. Even the DUP leader Arlene Fosters own constituency of south Armagh wanted to remain, despite the big vote leave campaign from the DUP. The remain aspect of NI voters are heavily weighted towards the North East where there is no border. It was a very clear sign back in 2016 what peoples views were on Brexit but DUP didn't really take that demographic data on board and now they've backed themselves into a corner. They've got some serious work to do if they want to come out of this debacle with any sort of damage limitation.Spend time in Donegal and you'll notice trucks with NI plates delivering the animal feed to the farms. The livestock go to Co Derry for slaughter but the carcasses go back over the border to be butchered, processed and packed in the Republic and then a proportion of that meat is exported back to NI and Britain.
Spend time in Dublin industrial estates and you'll see plenty of Northern plates on vans and lorries dropping off materials and equipment whilst the same thing is going on with Republic plates in Belfast.
People live and work on both sides of the border and trades service both sides of the border.
Over the years the economies of the Republic and Northern Ireland have become very integrated. Add friction and costs to this and the whole country North and South particularly around the border will suffer and suffer badly.
The other problem is if NI was to join the Republic and remain in the EU trade with mainland Britain would suffer.
DUP need to start thinking about important stuff like money and stop worrying about nonsense like flags and identity.
soupdragon1 said:
They are very much integrated now and when you look at how people within NI regions voted on Brexit - every border area voted to remain. Even the DUP leader Arlene Fosters own constituency of south Armagh wanted to remain, despite the big vote leave campaign from the DUP. The remain aspect of NI voters are heavily weighted towards the North East where there is no border. It was a very clear sign back in 2016 what peoples views were on Brexit but DUP didn't really take that demographic data on board and now they've backed themselves into a corner. They've got some serious work to do if they want to come out of this debacle with any sort of damage limitation.
I really can’t see Arlene being very popular in Cullyhanna or Crossmaglen. Then again she couldn’t even manage to get elected in her home constituency of Fermangh south Tyrone so you never know.Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff