How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 6)
Discussion
Reading the last couple of pages about Ireland with posters questioning how we'd deal with EU citizens entering the UK/vice versa unchecked just shows what a brilliant job HMG and the EU have done at making the Irish border (non) issue such a big deal and the main focus of everything (clearly in order to soften the whole process to a point that it's unrecognisable from the govt's original definition of leaving the EU).
So much confusion over people moving about which was never an issue at all. Open your eyes, you've been lied to and manipulated, they didn't even need to put it on a bus! If, for example, the whole island of Ireland was part of the UK or the EU they would have just picked something else to be the "huge problem", Gibraltar would be my guess.
So much confusion over people moving about which was never an issue at all. Open your eyes, you've been lied to and manipulated, they didn't even need to put it on a bus! If, for example, the whole island of Ireland was part of the UK or the EU they would have just picked something else to be the "huge problem", Gibraltar would be my guess.
FiF said:
don'tbesilly said:
paulrockliffe said:
Greg66 said:
... is the alternative facts based ramblings of a sock puppet.
It seems there is an increasing number of them on these boards.
He's clearly right. The ERG went weeks ago and we saw they had less than 48 true members. You probably laughed about that at the time.It seems there is an increasing number of them on these boards.
Last night 117 MPs voted with the ERG, clearly as we know ERG membership is less than 48, lots of non-ERG members have no confidence in May.
It's rather stating the obvious that it was those non-ERG no-confidencers that submitted letters after Monday's shambles and triggered the vote yesterday.
I've seen figures of membership of the ERG range from 40 - 70, and I think many view anyone who wants May to stick to the lines set out in her own Lancaster House speech and the 2017 Tory Manifesto as a 'hard' brexiteer and ERG member which is clearly nonsense.
What's probably of more importance than the Confidence vote last night is just how many of the MP's who voted for May last night will go onto support her deal when it does eventually hit the HoC.
Both Fox & Leadsom from the Cabinet have said they won't support it, and many very senior Tory members who supported her last night have condemned the plan, and did so on Monday last.
The EU have stated and categorically that the legal text of the WA won't be changed, yet May said last night she would be going to Brussels to get the legal text in the WA changed.
With an absolute requirement of many Tory MP's and the DUP saying the legal text must be changed, it would seem that May is on a fools errand, and it's amazing that she seems to not realise this.
So when May does come back with probably nothing of any substance, stands in the House with a recording of what she said on Monday 10th December, does she expect the same people who would have voted the deal down on Tuesday 11th December had May not cancelled the inevitable 200 odd defeating vote, not do exactly the same as they would have done on the 11th Dec?
Surely if it fails she has no where to go, other than resign?
Rees-Mogg, Paterson et al are taking stick, rightly so perhaps, for pointing out the theory that May got less than half of back benchers to support her. They are assuming that the Payroll, ie everyone in the Government proper, ie Ministers of State and their juniors, essentially MPs who have a defined job and paid extra have voted in support of Mrs May.
Considering politicians, in particular Conservative MPs are the most duplicitous set of bar stewards (trademark John Major) it's ever been my misfortune to encounter then that voting assumption is a helluva stretch imo.
Of course JR-M, OP etc are getting the "You lost, get over it" schtick on Twitter, which is fair enough, though That's ignoring the above point, that support in a confidence secret ballot says nothing about support for the WA.
Still nothing new on the Twittersphere where scoring empty points appears to matter.
Anyway back to the classifieds, I feel like a new set of wheels.
"strong and stable"
"Brexit means Brexit"
"No deal is better than a bad deal"
How times have changed for the Tories
https://youtu.be/H-EV9BKHRgA
olimain said:
Reading the last couple of pages about Ireland with posters questioning how we'd deal with EU citizens entering the UK/vice versa unchecked just shows what a brilliant job HMG and the EU have done at making the Irish border (non) issue such a big deal and the main focus of everything (clearly in order to soften the whole process to a point that it's unrecognisable from the govt's original definition of leaving the EU).
So much confusion over people moving about which was never an issue at all. Open your eyes, you've been lied to and manipulated, they didn't even need to put it on a bus! If, for example, the whole island of Ireland was part of the UK or the EU they would have just picked something else to be the "huge problem", Gibraltar would be my guess.
To rub salt in, I think I'm correct in saying that it was Leo Varadkar that So much confusion over people moving about which was never an issue at all. Open your eyes, you've been lied to and manipulated, they didn't even need to put it on a bus! If, for example, the whole island of Ireland was part of the UK or the EU they would have just picked something else to be the "huge problem", Gibraltar would be my guess.
brought the border/backstop up in the first place.
Greg66 said:
Crackie said:
Tuna said:
I'm fascinated that people think the ERG have co-ordinated this vote of no confidence.
It's pretty clear they haven't - if they were leading the charge, they had enough numbers to get the letters in weeks ago. It's clear that they could not do so.
The timing is also very bad for them - a day after the vote was meant to happen, and the same day that they release their alternative proposal. They had everything lined up to 'answer' May's vote in the anticipation it would have failed.
Instead, they released the paper just as May's actions drove enough MPs over the edge and the Confidence vote has pushed their hard work completely out of the news.
It seems to me that the Confidence vote has grown out of individual MPs getting tired of the theatre (and details like the EU knowing she'd pulled the vote before they did).
At best she's been withholding information, and at worst outright lying. Given the way the Confidence vote came in it would be a surprise if she lost (I think...), but that reflects very badly on the Tory Members who are tacitly accepting a dishonest and tone deaf leader.
It's pretty clear they haven't - if they were leading the charge, they had enough numbers to get the letters in weeks ago. It's clear that they could not do so.
The timing is also very bad for them - a day after the vote was meant to happen, and the same day that they release their alternative proposal. They had everything lined up to 'answer' May's vote in the anticipation it would have failed.
Instead, they released the paper just as May's actions drove enough MPs over the edge and the Confidence vote has pushed their hard work completely out of the news.
It seems to me that the Confidence vote has grown out of individual MPs getting tired of the theatre (and details like the EU knowing she'd pulled the vote before they did).
At best she's been withholding information, and at worst outright lying. Given the way the Confidence vote came in it would be a surprise if she lost (I think...), but that reflects very badly on the Tory Members who are tacitly accepting a dishonest and tone deaf leader.
/\ this.
It seems there is an increasing number of them on these boards.
And sock puppet? For who exactly? Let's hear that justification, i could do with a laugh.
For those suggesting a second referendum I'm unclear as to how this solves anything so I'd like to understand how they think it would.
To my mind the country is still very divided so likely the winning margin would be no more than 55/45 one way or the other, so hardly convincing, which seems to be the main justification used for having another referendum.
If Leave won would this be accepted as a mandate for no deal? Or would Labour / SNP / Lib Dem's then vote for May's deal to get it over the line because I'm guessing the ERG Cons and DUP still wouldn't.
If remain won then what. Is that justification for withdrawing article 50 and then forgetting about the whole thing? Realistically I think we all know that we can't go back to how we were before and the issue wouldn't just get forgotten about.
To my mind the country is still very divided so likely the winning margin would be no more than 55/45 one way or the other, so hardly convincing, which seems to be the main justification used for having another referendum.
If Leave won would this be accepted as a mandate for no deal? Or would Labour / SNP / Lib Dem's then vote for May's deal to get it over the line because I'm guessing the ERG Cons and DUP still wouldn't.
If remain won then what. Is that justification for withdrawing article 50 and then forgetting about the whole thing? Realistically I think we all know that we can't go back to how we were before and the issue wouldn't just get forgotten about.
SunsetZed said:
For those suggesting a second referendum I'm unclear as to how this solves anything so I'd like to understand how they think it would.
To my mind the country is still very divided so likely the winning margin would be no more than 55/45 one way or the other, so hardly convincing, which seems to be the main justification used for having another referendum.
If Leave won would this be accepted as a mandate for no deal? Or would Labour / SNP / Lib Dem's then vote for May's deal to get it over the line because I'm guessing the ERG Cons and DUP still wouldn't.
If remain won then what. Is that justification for withdrawing article 50 and then forgetting about the whole thing? Realistically I think we all know that we can't go back to how we were before and the issue wouldn't just get forgotten about.
We've had 2.5 years of being told "The people are too thick to have made this decision", "A binary vote was too simplistic", "No one defined what Leave meant", "Both sides should be represented", "The margin was too narrow"...To my mind the country is still very divided so likely the winning margin would be no more than 55/45 one way or the other, so hardly convincing, which seems to be the main justification used for having another referendum.
If Leave won would this be accepted as a mandate for no deal? Or would Labour / SNP / Lib Dem's then vote for May's deal to get it over the line because I'm guessing the ERG Cons and DUP still wouldn't.
If remain won then what. Is that justification for withdrawing article 50 and then forgetting about the whole thing? Realistically I think we all know that we can't go back to how we were before and the issue wouldn't just get forgotten about.
And now we have "We need a binary vote, from the same people we've spent years insulting, and must absolutely respect the outcome - it's democracy"
SunsetZed said:
For those suggesting a second referendum I'm unclear as to how this solves anything so I'd like to understand how they think it would.
To my mind the country is still very divided so likely the winning margin would be no more than 55/45 one way or the other, so hardly convincing, which seems to be the main justification used for having another referendum.
If Leave won would this be accepted as a mandate for no deal? Or would Labour / SNP / Lib Dem's then vote for May's deal to get it over the line because I'm guessing the ERG Cons and DUP still wouldn't.
If remain won then what. Is that justification for withdrawing article 50 and then forgetting about the whole thing? Realistically I think we all know that we can't go back to how we were before and the issue wouldn't just get forgotten about.
If leave win, it would provide an absolute mandate to proceed with Brexit based on the terms we have achieved. No remain supporter can realistically argue otherwise. We would be voting based on the reality of the issue before us. To my mind the country is still very divided so likely the winning margin would be no more than 55/45 one way or the other, so hardly convincing, which seems to be the main justification used for having another referendum.
If Leave won would this be accepted as a mandate for no deal? Or would Labour / SNP / Lib Dem's then vote for May's deal to get it over the line because I'm guessing the ERG Cons and DUP still wouldn't.
If remain won then what. Is that justification for withdrawing article 50 and then forgetting about the whole thing? Realistically I think we all know that we can't go back to how we were before and the issue wouldn't just get forgotten about.
If remain win, then that is the new democratic decision of the people. We cancel article 50 and proceed as we were (for now). I am sure that the leave voters would continue to campaign and that would create pressure for the Govt to seek further EU reform and maintain resistance to overtly 'centrist' EU policies.
All this nonsense talk about remainers 'making us vote over and over again until we give the right answer' is just that - nonsense.
Elysium said:
SunsetZed said:
For those suggesting a second referendum I'm unclear as to how this solves anything so I'd like to understand how they think it would.
To my mind the country is still very divided so likely the winning margin would be no more than 55/45 one way or the other, so hardly convincing, which seems to be the main justification used for having another referendum.
If Leave won would this be accepted as a mandate for no deal? Or would Labour / SNP / Lib Dem's then vote for May's deal to get it over the line because I'm guessing the ERG Cons and DUP still wouldn't.
If remain won then what. Is that justification for withdrawing article 50 and then forgetting about the whole thing? Realistically I think we all know that we can't go back to how we were before and the issue wouldn't just get forgotten about.
If leave win, it would provide an absolute mandate to proceed with Brexit based on the terms we have achieved. No remain supporter can realistically argue otherwise. We would be voting based on the reality of the issue before us. To my mind the country is still very divided so likely the winning margin would be no more than 55/45 one way or the other, so hardly convincing, which seems to be the main justification used for having another referendum.
If Leave won would this be accepted as a mandate for no deal? Or would Labour / SNP / Lib Dem's then vote for May's deal to get it over the line because I'm guessing the ERG Cons and DUP still wouldn't.
If remain won then what. Is that justification for withdrawing article 50 and then forgetting about the whole thing? Realistically I think we all know that we can't go back to how we were before and the issue wouldn't just get forgotten about.
If remain win, then that is the new democratic decision of the people. We cancel article 50 and proceed as we were (for now). I am sure that the leave voters would continue to campaign and that would create pressure for the Govt to seek further EU reform and maintain resistance to overtly 'centrist' EU policies.
All this nonsense talk about remainers 'making us vote over and over again until we give the right answer' is just that - nonsense.
SunsetZed said:
By this you mean if leave win it's leave with May's deal. So either way no deal is dead in your view?
And he means there isn't already a mandate for Brexit. There is.It's fantasy level remain obfuscation as ever. More evidence that remainers think leavers are more thickerer than they really are.
Elysium said:
If leave win, it would provide an absolute mandate to proceed with Brexit based on the terms we have achieved. No remain supporter can realistically argue otherwise. We would be voting based on the reality of the issue before us.
If remain win, then that is the new democratic decision of the people. We cancel article 50 and proceed as we were (for now). I am sure that the leave voters would continue to campaign and that would create pressure for the Govt to seek further EU reform and maintain resistance to overtly 'centrist' EU policies.
All this nonsense talk about remainers 'making us vote over and over again until we give the right answer' is just that - nonsense.
Why would the choice be leave with a crap deal or remain? We voted to leave and I can see an argument for a vote to choose how, between May's deal and WTO, if anyone backs May's deal - I suspect even she will quietly drop it soon.If remain win, then that is the new democratic decision of the people. We cancel article 50 and proceed as we were (for now). I am sure that the leave voters would continue to campaign and that would create pressure for the Govt to seek further EU reform and maintain resistance to overtly 'centrist' EU policies.
All this nonsense talk about remainers 'making us vote over and over again until we give the right answer' is just that - nonsense.
A choice between May's deal and remain will just be seen as a total stitch up by an establishment who believe we got it wrong the first time and so cobbled together an especially unattractive leave option and asked again.
That's exactly how I would see it anyway, and pretty much how I see it already.
Elysium said:
If leave win, it would provide an absolute mandate to proceed with Brexit based on the terms we have achieved. No remain supporter can realistically argue otherwise. We would be voting based on the reality of the issue before us.
If remain win, then that is the new democratic decision of the people. We cancel article 50 and proceed as we were (for now). I am sure that the leave voters would continue to campaign and that would create pressure for the Govt to seek further EU reform and maintain resistance to overtly 'centrist' EU policies.
All this nonsense talk about remainers 'making us vote over and over again until we give the right answer' is just that - nonsense.
Nah, you're alright mate. If remain win, then that is the new democratic decision of the people. We cancel article 50 and proceed as we were (for now). I am sure that the leave voters would continue to campaign and that would create pressure for the Govt to seek further EU reform and maintain resistance to overtly 'centrist' EU policies.
All this nonsense talk about remainers 'making us vote over and over again until we give the right answer' is just that - nonsense.
Thanks for the thought though.
Edited by gooner1 on Thursday 13th December 13:56
The 2016 referendum was the biggest vote for anything in British political history. Would any remainers who believe in this "extra democracy" of a Remain vs Stitch Up accept the idea that if the Remain vote wins but wins fewer than the 17.4m votes to leave in 2016 then we should leave with no deal?
rfisher said:
Let's just force Ireland to have another referendum on leaving the EU.
Once they have been allowed to vote to leave there's no issue over the Ireland / NI border.
Simples.
Have you been to Ireland lately?Once they have been allowed to vote to leave there's no issue over the Ireland / NI border.
Simples.
They like being in the EU.
Dublin right now is buzzing. Doing very well indeed.
foreright said:
Elysium said:
If remain win, then that is the new democratic decision of the people.
So when would the third referendum be in this scenario?What is the problem with a more current vote? A lot has changed in the last two years.
JuanCarlosFandango said:
Elysium said:
If leave win, it would provide an absolute mandate to proceed with Brexit based on the terms we have achieved. No remain supporter can realistically argue otherwise. We would be voting based on the reality of the issue before us.
If remain win, then that is the new democratic decision of the people. We cancel article 50 and proceed as we were (for now). I am sure that the leave voters would continue to campaign and that would create pressure for the Govt to seek further EU reform and maintain resistance to overtly 'centrist' EU policies.
All this nonsense talk about remainers 'making us vote over and over again until we give the right answer' is just that - nonsense.
Why would the choice be leave with a crap deal or remain? We voted to leave and I can see an argument for a vote to choose how, between May's deal and WTO, if anyone backs May's deal - I suspect even she will quietly drop it soon.If remain win, then that is the new democratic decision of the people. We cancel article 50 and proceed as we were (for now). I am sure that the leave voters would continue to campaign and that would create pressure for the Govt to seek further EU reform and maintain resistance to overtly 'centrist' EU policies.
All this nonsense talk about remainers 'making us vote over and over again until we give the right answer' is just that - nonsense.
A choice between May's deal and remain will just be seen as a total stitch up by an establishment who believe we got it wrong the first time and so cobbled together an especially unattractive leave option and asked again.
That's exactly how I would see it anyway, and pretty much how I see it already.
It's an easy 2-part question:
1. Leave or Remain
2. If we leave - Mays deal or no deal.
If leave wins, we proceed with the majority decision in respect of question 2.
Elysium said:
foreright said:
Elysium said:
If remain win, then that is the new democratic decision of the people.
So when would the third referendum be in this scenario?What is the problem with a more current vote? A lot has changed in the last two years.
edited to delete the second question as you answered it in your post above.
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